Democrats Looking To Make It A Long, Hot Summer For Bush And The GOP

Faced with crumbling Congressional favorability ratings, House and Senate Democrats have begun a full-scale campaign to pin responsibility on the GOP for the failure to either enact key domestic legislation or to stem the bloodshed in Iraq.

Next month, Democrats are prepared to use the Defense Authorization bill to exploit fissures within the Republican coalition. Democrats plan to press the case that Republican obstructionism in Congress and the President's vetoes are behind the quagmire in Iraq as well as behind gridlock on lobbying reform, inaction on 9/11 Commission recommendations, a lack of progress on lowering Medicare drug prices, and stasis on other bills promised at the start of the session.

As part of the strategy to fracture the GOP, House Democratic Caucus chairman Rahm Emanuel intends to capitalize on Vice President Cheney's heavily ridiculed claim to be exempt from orders governing the executive branch. Today, Emanuel is scheduled to offer an amendment to cut $4.4 million from the Vice President's office, in a bid to require Republicans to take a stand on the legitimacy -- or absurdity -- of Cheney's claim.

Next month, House and Senate Democrats intend to force repeated votes on Iraq appropriations, troop readiness, and closing the prison at Guantanamo. One purpose is to coerce Republicans into taking hard-to-defend stands prior to the August recess, during which they must face their constituents.

Earlier this month, ABC News polling found that over the course of six weeks from late April to early June, a 24-point Democratic leadership advantage over Bush virtually disappeared. Much of the Democratic loss was among voters adamantly opposed to the Iraq war, voters who are angry that the change from a Republican to a Democratic Congress in January has not resulted in an end to the Iraq war.

Democratic leaders, including Emanuel and Chris Von Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, contend that the erosion is not as politically damaging as it might appear to be because Congressional Democrats continue to have significantly higher approval ratings than Republicans, according to most public polling, and because war opponents are very unlikely to vote Republican.

A recent Democracy Corps survey, and an accompanying analysis, suggested that in 70 key House battleground districts, the Democrats hold a substantial advantage, but in order to sustain its positives, the party needs to stay on the offensive. The analysis warned that by a margin of 56-37, voters in battleground districts believe "Democrats have not made progress on the actions they pledged to take if they took control of Congress."

Democracy Corps recommends a strategy similar to that advocated by House and Senate leaders:

"What Democrats need are bursts of engagement on Iraq taken as far as our majorities will take us, recognizing Democrats are gaining against the President. Democrats also need bursts of engagement on domestic issues, achieving laws where possible but engagement with the President where not. That combination is likely to keep Democrats on this new playing field where it is on the offensive....Given how much the Iraq debate and engagement has helped Democrats, particularly in the suburban Republican districts, we should not lose the momentum on working for change."

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Senate Majority leader Harry Reid argues that Democrats raised expectations too high, exposing the party's vulnerabilities, when the first Iraq supplemental appropriation bill set timelines for withdrawal, but was vetoed by the President. Voters "thought we could continually send that bill back to the president," Reid said, when in fact, many members were not willing to continually delay funding for troops on the battlefield -- especially those members facing re-election challenges in Republican-leaning districts.

The same political constraints will not apply to the defense appropriation bill, Reid contends. "This isn't a spending bill. This is an authorization bill. So we're playing in our territory now, not the President's" -- meaning that Congress can repeatedly challenge the President because the issue of funding the troops is not present.

Among the amendments to the defense bill Reid expects in July are a readiness requirement that "a soldier cannot go back to Iraq until he's [been] home for the length of time he's been there, 15 months." Newly elected Senator James Webb of Virginia is expected to be the sponsor. Opponents of the amendment argue that the military has insufficient personnel to allow for 15 month interruptions of service.

A more controversial proposal will by sponsored by Senators Carl Levin (D-Mich) and Jack Reed (D-R.I.). Their proposal would require troop withdrawal to begin within 120 days of enactment of such legislation, and to be completed by April, 2008 -- except for those missions with specific training or anti-terrorism duties.

House Democratic leaders plan to force votes on very similar, if not identical, amendments.