Fatalism Dominates GOP Outlook For '08
The Republican Party is in such bad shape heading into the 2008 congressional elections that many insiders are all but convinced things will get worse before they get better. The blame, some say, lies within the party itself.
Recent reports coming from the National Republican Congressional and Senatorial Committees paint a picture of institutions on the brink of bankruptcy and organizational disrepair. The Republican Party has ceded its traditional fundraising advantages to the Democrats. Recruiting conservative candidates to run for congressional office has proved exceedingly difficult. Even worse, several Republicans officials bemoaned, there is no short-term solutions on the horizon.
"In my lifetime you'd have to go back 30 years to find another time when the party committees were in such dire straits," Craig Shipley, president of the Republican public relations firm Shirley & Banister Public Affairs, told the Huffington Post. "The stimulus in the 70s was that the grassroots became disgusted with the abandonment of conservative principles and corruption of the party. The same thing is happening today. There is just a bad odor in the party right now."
Having lost 30 seats in the House and six in the Senate in the 2006 elections, Republican officials are now bracing for continued - perhaps, even greater - setbacks in 2008. According to the Cook Political Report there are 20 Republican seats in the House of Representatives that are in true jeopardy, compared to 13 Democratic. In addition, there are eight Republican races in the Senate currently up for play compared to two for the Democrats. In the direst of situations, officials claim, Republicans could be down a dozen seats just on the West Coast.
Indeed, officials who spoke to the Huffington Post described a sense of near fatalism that has overtaken the Republican Party concerning its prospects for 2008. Simply put, they say, there is no money to throw at the problem. The NRCC has a scant $1.6 million in cash on hand, and $4 million in outstanding debt from the 2006 cycle. The NRSC is fairing slightly better with $7 million to its name.
"The short term outlook for the Republican Party is not very good," said Rick Tyler, spokesman for conservative stalwart and possible presidential candidate Newt Gingrich. "It is a lack of leadership that has failed to earn back the trust of the donors. People want to see that their money is worthwhile."
In light of this dire outlook, infighting has broken out within Republican ranks. Late last week, it was reported that House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-OH, tried to force out several top advisers to NRCC Chairman Tom Cole, R-OK.
"I think there is a general lack of confidence over there," one high-ranking Republican staffer, told the Huffington Post. "Not necessarily with Cole, but with some of the stuff."
Similar concerns have surfaced with regard to Sen. John Ensign's, R-NV, leadership at the NRSC, though insiders were more inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt for the current situation.
"Nobody is happy because things aren't going in the right direction," a Republican consultant with knowledge of NRSC affairs told the Huffington Post. "You can't blame [Ensign] entirely, but there is blood in the water."
Not everyone sees disaster on the horizon. Betsy Hawkings, a spokesperson for Rep. Chris Shays, R-CT, described the Republican Party as unified and noted that there was 13 months to change voter perceptions.
But optimism over the GOP's prospects in 2008 remains hard to come by. While some D.C. insiders predicted a potential leadership shakeup at the Republican committees, on the whole, they argued, nothing short of a drastic change in the political landscape could turn around the party's near-term affairs. President Bush, who has proved more hindrance than help, would have to keep his distance; the situation in Iraq would have to drastically improve, a GOP presidential nominee would have to galvanize the base; and the party as a whole would have to effectively distance itself from recent scandal (see: Rep. Mark Foley, R-FL, Jack Abramoff, and, impending, Rep. Don Young, R-AK).
Even that, some suggested, might not be enough.
"There are a lot of people in this town that still drink the Kool Aid," Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster, told the Huffington Post. "There are a lot of Republicans who believe all our problems are solved once Hillary Clinton becomes the nominee. This is the same group of people who believed we could spend enough money to buy our way out of the 2006 debacle ... We bet the house then, and now we are living in a double wide."




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September 25, 2007 04:54 PM