With third quarter fundraising totals trickling in, the Senate electoral landscape continues to look optimistic for Democrats.
Political insiders cite at least seven Senate seats currently held by Republicans as potentially up for grabs in 2008. In each of those contests Democratic challengers finds themselves either well positioned in the polls or well stocked in their campaign coffers.
In Minnesota, comedian and talk show host Al Franken has reportedly out-raised incumbent Republican Norm Coleman these past three months by a margin of $1.9 million to $1.7 million. In Virginia, former Democratic Governor Mark Warner collected more than $1.1 million in just 17 days compared to roughly $230,000 for his chief Republican opponent, Rep. Tom Davis. The Colorado Springs Gazette has reported that Democratic Rep. Mark Udall, raised more than $1.1 million these past three months compared to the $800,000 brought in by his Republican counterpart, former Rep. Bob Schaffer. And in Maine, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, R-ME, reportedly brought in $1 million in third quarter donations, only $330,000 more than her Democratic rival, Rep. Tom Allen.
"The macro picture tracks like the national picture," Jennifer Duffy, an editor at the Cook Political Report, told the Huffington Post. "Republican incumbents are raising money but their challengers are either keeping pace or aren't too far behind."
Not all news is bleak for the GOP. Several endangered Republican incumbents padded their fundraising leads over Democratic challengers. In Oregon, Sen. Gordon Smith reportedly brought in more third quarter money than his two potential Democratic rivals combined. And in New Hampshire, Republican Sen. John Sununu out-raised his Democratic challenger, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheeen, $700,000 to $187,000. But even then, there was a silver lining for the Democrats. Shaheen entered the race less than a month ago and, according to a recent American Research Group survey leads Sununu in the polls, 48% to 41%.
Fundraising totals, of course, aren't a surefire indicator of how an election will play out. How each candidate spends his or her money, what type of issues rise between now and next November, and whether or not a third party contestant enters the race all will have significant bearing as well. Nevertheless, news of the third-quarter returns provided an opportunity for Democratic officials to gloat.
"Democratic challengers are doing extremely well in fundraising and that is a reflection of the enthusiasm in the country for change," Matt Miller, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told the Huffington Post. "Republicans have been demoralized and voters in the middle are simply trending our way. There is still a long time between now and the election. But in the off year when the name of the game is recruiting and fundraising we are doing very well."
Following Democratic victories in the 2006 election, Republican officials were hoping for a bounce-back year in 2008. In the current political environment, however, political observers are predicting setbacks for the GOP as drastic as the last election - when six Republican incumbent Senators were swept from office. According to the Cook Political Report, there are at least four "toss up" Senate seats held by Republicans and three other Republican seats that could switch parties. Only one such Senator -Mary Landrieu in Louisiana - is endangered on the Democratic side. Moreover, according to filings at the end of August, the DSCC had raised $36.7 million for the 2008 cycle (with $20.6 million cash on hand) compared to the National Republican Senate Committee's $20.5 million raised and $7.1 million cash on hand.
"When you look at just the candidates and the incumbents it looks like all things will be equal," said Duffy. "But it won't because the DSCC has so much money. They will be able to really support these challengers.