Are We Already In A Recession?

Silicon Valley Insider:

New Items: Enough bad news coming from enough industries now that it's reasonable to think we're already in a recession (Economists can't pinpoint recessions without the benefit of hindsight, and most usually start while economists are still predicting that we won't have one). Of course, whether we are technically in a recession or not is irrelevant--it's the trend that matters. And the trend is still getting worse. We continue to believe that the growing weakness will eventually hit online advertising, hurting AOL, Yahoo, Google, and others.

Last 24 hours: FedEx cuts outlook, blames higher prices and economic weakness. Starbucks has weak quarter, blames economy and price inflation. Internet Brands reduces size/price of IPO. New York Times reports weak October revenues, especially in retail advertising...

Overview. We continue to believe we may be in the early stages of a cyclical downturn for advertising and the Internet sector--one that could affect not only start-ups and second-tier players but majors like Time Warner (TWX), Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO), AOL, et al. Such downturns do not begin suddenly, and they are not instantly obvious (except in hindsight). Rather, as with the housing market, the environment changes gradually, over many months, with early signs slowly becoming a steady torrent of bad news.

Read the whole story: Silicon Valley Insider

Comments

[GeoLee]

The headline says it all: Are WE already in a Recession. It depends on who WE describes. I fyou live in Merill Lynch CEO/s big house of other similarly paid CEOs, clearly WE are ntoot. If you live in my home, what used to be middle class, WE are nearing the Depression stage. Our 600 dollars a month plus 2700 dollar deductible plus 40 dollar office visit copay plus 30/50/100 dollar medication copay this year pretty much settles the question, then add a dollar more a gallon of gas, that much more on milk and bread, 50 cent oranges, increased house insurance, vehicle insurance thanks to all the tornados, floods, etc, ...well you are getting the picture of real life for a public school teacher and it is not a pretty picture. Oh yeah, a raise in pay? You have to be kidding...the tax payers are up in arms about paying taxes in this environment and WE are public enemy #1. Even if we are not quite in a depression financially, we darned sure are emotionally!

[VivaZapata]

There are several posts about the advantages and disadvatages of government run programs which is natural when we hit economic hard times. I want to point out that many of these comments harken back to old modals that really aren't pertinent anymore. First and foremost, it is important to note that we no longer have what was once referred to as the free enterprise system. Corporate America is a very different economic landscape from that. Most successful small businesses are gobbled up and become part of a business bureaucracy that is often more inefficient than government ones. Everyone who has called a customer service number and received an outsourced response knows what I'm talking about. The irony of all of this is that communism is turning out to be less of problem for capitalism than corporatism. The corporations, like our fast food industry, appear to be squeeky clean but when you look deeper there's something else there, like shit in the meat (fast food nation reference).

[themodernleader]

Not one blogger ever suggests that the benefits of free trade was its own undoing, that, in fact, industry and technological are at the basis of dynamic, thriving, growing society.
More education, more retraining, more unemployment benefits, more preschool, more daycare, more special training programs---all are naught if there is no job to strive. And our health care is on the decline because it is too expensive for low paid service workers.
Is it realistic to assume that we can continue as an independent Nation without producing and growing to sustain ourselves and our children's future? Or should we continue down the present road of free trade and foreign domination and plutocracy and ruin? To this corrupt and spoiled generation, the obvious is not at all obvious.

[loki]

Of course we are. Just Bush wont admit to it until he has an excuse like in 2001 when he kept refusing to admit it until someone told him he he could use 911 as an excuse, and then later tossed in Clinton because he could. Although, it was heading that way when Clinton left office. The fact is Bush will never admit to anything unless he can blame it on someone or something else.

[pompous]

Regardless of the technical macroeconomic definition we appear to be heading into a recession The genius of Alan Greenspan and Dick "deficits don't matter" Cheney, aka George W. Bush, has propelled us into a precarious economic position. Artificially low interest rates coupled with out of control government spending fanned the flames of funny money mortgage loans and piggy bank home equity spending. The plunge in dollar value has caused a significant level of capital flight from the United States. Wall street's market value is from US corporation finding opportunity outside of the US. The transport numbers have declined for some time now and we manufacture very little. The CNBC news models will continue to jump on 2 day highs and 2 week highs and the 50 point rally as a sign that all is well - don't be fooled.

[oogabooga]

When Clinton was in office, the euro bought around 79 U.S. cents as I recall. Under Bush, the euro buys $1.47. Why the difference? Bush piddled away six trillion in debt on tax cuts, war, oil subsidies etc. That deflates the dollar. Clinton had surpluses.

[WARisEVIL]

Dollars no good for the Taj Mahal
Foreign tourists to many of India's most famous landmarks will no longer be able to pay the entrance fee in dollars, the government says.

[eastearll]

Recession? Well, that has never happened before, the economy has always just gotten better until now. I guess those little blips in the past were just illusions.

[Ping]

Reading this thread just confirms the fact that Dems cannot be trusted to run the economy.

[WARisEVIL]

Americans have the lowest personal savings of any nation on earth.

Europeans even AFTER paying 8 dollars a gallon have the HIGHEST personal savings rates and still have money left to vacation all over the world.

[VivaZapata]

What a stupid headline! Does one need to actually have one's head on an auction block before one knows what's being sold?

[jjimmyboy21]

Our so-called recession is symptomatic of
Bushco's voodoo "War on Terror" emergency scam.

Mainly because Congress LOVES to play the emergency spending game.

Instead of working through the regular appropriations process, Congress is hiding behind “emergency” supplemental bills.

Supplemental spending, “emergency” spending in particular, has become Washington’s tool of choice for evading annual budget limits and increasing spending across the board.

Funding predictable, nonemergency needs through supplementals hides skyrocketing military costs and allows Congress to boost regular appropriations for both defense and nondefense programs.


Is this why Bush's impeachment is still 'off the table?'


Meanwhile, the Fed keeps pumping 'new' money into the fiscal morass...

[provgrays]

That's exactly right.

We are never told that we are currently in a recession, only that we are emerging from a recessionary period. There is no avoiding the pain to come. It's called lack of government regulation.

[olephart]

The stock market goes up and down with each investor whim. A comical observation is that the market has predicted 17 of the last 4 recessions. The stock market is viewed as a "leading indicator", one that precedes upcoming events. The prices of stocks are usually predicated on their projected earnings. Thus on each jog downward people predict the "upcoming" recession. The market is now very near its all time high having breached 14,000 twice recently. That’s the good news. Here’s the bad news. The stock market did miss one economic turning point. The stock market crash in October of 1929 came 6 months AFTER the economy had started its downturn in the Spring of 1929. Just a little economic history to put everyone at ease.

[MajorKong]

Once you just accept the fact that we're well and truly screwed, it's much easier to deal with.