Are We Already In A Recession?

Silicon Valley Insider:

New Items: Enough bad news coming from enough industries now that it's reasonable to think we're already in a recession (Economists can't pinpoint recessions without the benefit of hindsight, and most usually start while economists are still predicting that we won't have one). Of course, whether we are technically in a recession or not is irrelevant--it's the trend that matters. And the trend is still getting worse. We continue to believe that the growing weakness will eventually hit online advertising, hurting AOL, Yahoo, Google, and others.

Last 24 hours: FedEx cuts outlook, blames higher prices and economic weakness. Starbucks has weak quarter, blames economy and price inflation. Internet Brands reduces size/price of IPO. New York Times reports weak October revenues, especially in retail advertising...

Overview. We continue to believe we may be in the early stages of a cyclical downturn for advertising and the Internet sector--one that could affect not only start-ups and second-tier players but majors like Time Warner (TWX), Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO), AOL, et al. Such downturns do not begin suddenly, and they are not instantly obvious (except in hindsight). Rather, as with the housing market, the environment changes gradually, over many months, with early signs slowly becoming a steady torrent of bad news.

Read the whole story: Silicon Valley Insider

Comments

[MetalCanuck]

Of course we are all in a recession. The inflation is out of control.

[Bobleblah1]

Its all the same scam over and over again.

This is way bigger than Bush...so don't think blaming him makes any difference.

Their prepping the sheep to be sheared of the fruits of their labor.

[Justinpassing]

Are We Already In A Recession?
If you gotta ask, you can't afford the answer.

[ceasenake]

US unemployment rate 4.6%

Canada 6.4, Russia 6.6%, Germany 7%, Poland 7.5% France 8%.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/lab_une_rat-labor-unemployment-rate

I guess if the USA is in a recession, most other industrialized countries in a depression.

[PuffAndStuff]

"Already In A Recession?" ...

From the looks of my portfolio (ouch), depsite me making the apporprate changes in my holdings a couple months ago in attempt to safeguard myself, I do have to wonder if that is the truth.

[curiousasheck]

Are We Already In A Recession?

This has to be the most idiotic question of the past 7 years.

[Sundialsvc4]

Back in the late 1970's, "the inflation number" was a fixture on the nightly news. But then a few years later we started drinking the Ronald Reagan kool-aid of how spectacular it was going to be. And for a lot of years there seemed to be plenty of money even as the factories closed and the big-box shops (fueled by their millions of trucks and thousands of ships and all-that) became a scourge upon the planet.

The trouble is that we've had "inflation" all this time. More dollars, less value. We stopped trying to talk about spending-limits; we don't even come close in the taxes. We just "borrow against the full faith and blah-blah," and we do that to the tune of about $1 million a minute, 24/7/365.

That isn't "borrowing" folks. That's runaway inflation.

The only thing that sort-of kept it going was the dollar's current place as reserve-currency but we all know perfectly well that the Euro is going to take its place: that's why the Euro was invented in the first place. What does it really mean to be paid $1 million for something if the government will have invented 60 times that amount of "money" during your lunch-break?

"Where's 'all that money' coming from?" Nowhere.

[ibsteve2u]

You can't use the stock market as an indicator of the health of the American economy any longer. When "free trade" rolled around, the big corporations siezed on it for the obvious reason of getting cheaper labor but also for the equally valuable reason of diversifying their markets to "protect shareholder value", as they like to put it. There are two results from the latter:

Listed mega-corporations can still have glowing income reports even though the U.S. economy is in the bag, and their stock prices and the overall stock market will reflect that.

Sadly and much worse, the people who run the mega-corporations no longer have any real personal investment in the health of the American economy, which leaves them free to do whatever they wish to increase both their corporation's profits and the value of the stocks they hold or will be rewarded with.

In short, if destroying the American economy in order to bring down the cost of American labor promises to increase their profits, there is no financial reason for them not to do it.

And I for one wouldn't attempt to suggest that they would let "morality" or "patriotism" stand between them and more money.

[drkazmd65]

I would guess that we are already in a recession.

It takes so much money for the typical family (mine included) just to find a decent place to live, to pay for the utility and transportation expensese, and to cover costs of even a State education - I'm amazed that anybody, especially those with children, ever manages to save any money.

And most (obviously) haven't saved any money - or were dependent in the overinflated value of their home to disguise the fact that they haven't saved any money.

And - it sure hasn't gotten any easier.

Should be an 'interesting' next couple of decades folks,...

[Justinpassing]

Notice the vacuum regarding Hedge Funds?

[rivrgrrl]

When disasterous economic policies causes pain and suffering to all but the mega rich, they call it a recession. When the mega rich finally feel the hurt, they call it a depression.

While the mega rich may be currently suffering a recession, the rest of us are in a full blown depression with lost jobs, stagnant wages, choices between food or medicine, disappearing benefits and skyrocketing prices of everything from milk to clothing to gas.

And it will get worse before it gets better. The new leadership in '09 will determine if that worse is a worse or a worst.

[BUSHsurvivor]

Not from hearing BushSpeak!

[Lt]

We can thank the conservatives, starting with reagan and going on to bush/murdoch for the coming depression, hope you all have a good job.

[1will]

I'm sure that media will declare a Recession before 2009 regardless of the numbers. It's important that Hillary or Obama come into an existing Recession instead of having one occur on their watch. It should be interesting to see how raising taxes, the Dems favorite activity, will help to improve our economy.

[larry278]

We have $3.00 a gal gas, $2.90 a gal fuel oil, sky rocketing prices at the super market ($3.00 a gal milk), real estate is tanking & going lower, lower Wall St bonuses which signal depression, not recession. Well booze is selling better than the stuff on the shelves. One wonders if super markts bring trading stamps soon. We could find that it will take $1.50 to get a euro by Thanksgiving. Her Hillaryship or someother Democrat may call the White House home after 1/21/09.