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Sam Stein

The Huffington Post

Post X-Mas Poll Shows Nomination Race As Tight As Ever

December 27, 2007 07:30 PM


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A few days removed from the Christmas Break and the Democratic race for the presidential nomination is as tight as ever.

In a recently released Bloomberg/LA Time's poll, Sen, Hillary Clinton was up three percentage points in Iowa over rival Sen. Barack Obama, 29 percent to 26 percent respectively. The two were closely trailed by former Sen. John Edwards, who registered with 25 percent support in the first-in-the-nation state.

In New Hampshire, which follows Iowa on the electoral map, Obama finds himself in the lead with 32 percent to Clinton's 30 percent. Edwards trailed the bunch with 18 percent support. In both states Obama and Clinton are within the survey's margin of error.

"Democratic voters are having a conversation with themselves on what they want more in this election,'' says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. ``If they choose Obama it's about personal characteristics, whereas for Clinton it's her leadership on issues.''

The findings provide a stark contrast to a recent American Research Group poll which showed the New York Senator with a 15 percentage point lead over her Democratic counterparts. The findings of the ARG study were called into question in part because of the survey's methodology (addressed, in depth, here) but mainly because it showed such a deviation from the normal polling trends

The Bloomberg/LA Times poll, which was conducted before and after, but not during, Christmas, shows that Iowa and New Hampshire voters view Clinton as the most experienced and qualified, but also the least honest of the Democratic presidential candidates. Obama, in contrast, is viewed as the more honest candidate and an agent of change but scores poor marks on experience. In Iowa, Edwards received higher marks than Clinton for candor and integrity but did not match up with Obama on "most personal traits or as Clinton on most of the policy issues."

The poll was conducted before Thursday's assassination of former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

On the Republican side, the Bloomberg/LA Times poll shows a presidential race in disarray. In Iowa, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has 37 percent support among voters, polling fourteen percentage points ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. In New Hampshire, however, Romney has opened up a 13-percentage point margin with Arizona Senator John McCain, 34 percent to 21 percent respectively.

Religion, not surprisingly, is playing a major role. As the survey's authors note:

In Iowa, Republicans by almost 3 to 1 say Huckabee's religious beliefs are a positive factor. Almost half of these Iowa voters say Romney's Mormon faith is a negative."


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Why is Hillary Clinton so anxious to get back into the White House, the last time she was there, she trashed it for the oncoming Bush Administration.

GAO report on the Clinton staff trashing the White House:

We obtained repair or replacement costs for some of the observed
incidents. However, as explained in more detail later in this report, we did
not request cost information associated with all of the observations
because we did not believe certain costs would be material or readily
available. We also believed that the effort that would have been needed to
obtain and verify cost data for all observed incidents would not have been
commensurate with the benefit of having reported the information.
Further, although certain repair and replacement costs were provided, it
was unclear what portion of these costs was incurred or will be incurred
due to vandalism.
To determine how the 2001 presidential transition compared with others in
terms of damage, we asked 14 EOP and 2 GSA staff who worked in the
White House complex during previous transitions about their recollections
of damage, vandalism, or pranks during previous transitions. In addition,
we reviewed news media reports to identify any reported damage,
vandalism, or pranks during previous transitions. We searched for news
reports concerning the 1981, 1989, and 1993 transitions.

Results Damage, theft, vandalism, and pranks did occur in the White House
complex during the 2001 presidential transition. Multiple people said that,
at the beginning of the Bush administration, they observed (1) many offices
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d02360.pdf

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:52 PM on 12/30/2007


There is nothing Bill Clinton would do for a buck, ultimately he alianed himself with the now President Musharraf of Pakistan, I invite you to read more.

Why was President Clinton so determined to crush Pakistan because of an unpaid bill to some Little Rock company. This was not just any company. But that wasn"t much. More important, Entergy and its partners, the Riady Family of Indonesia had just paid about half a million dollars to Hillary"s old Rose Law Firm partner Webster Hubbell. Odd that, hiring Hubbell. Why would Entergy pay big bucks to Hubbell as a "consultant" when he was on his way to jail for a felony. Hubbell was doing time because he refused to testify against Ms. Rodham.

Did President Clinton know about the payment to Hubbell? Clinton denied it to the press, but under oath, to the FBI, Bill said he, "wouldn"t be surprised" if the Riadys told him about the payoff to Hubbell in one of Bill"s several private meetings with them in the Oval Office.

With Pakistan"s army in control of the nation"s infrastructure, and acting as guarantor of payment to the US and UK power giants, General Musharraf"s final takeover of the entire government nine months later - a "surprise" coup to the Western press - was, a forgone conclusion. And the Clintons, complicit, like Bush today, could say little.

Just months before he left office President Clinton paid a sudden visit to Musharraf. Congressional Democrats were stunned. Musharraf had quickly shown himself to be a Taliban-loving, unbalanced dictator who violated US treaty terms by exploding a nuke and threatening to incinerate our ally India. Notably, the Ambassador with Clinton made payments to the electric companies a top item on his agenda.

Favors done; favors repaid. Nothing new under the sun, but it"s a dangerous game, Senator Clinton.

http://www.gregpalast.com/mrs-clintons-forgotten-fling-with-the-killer-of-karachi/

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:21 AM on 12/30/2007

What I don't understand is how hillary can claim "leadership" as a personal trait.

Just exactly in what area is she a leader?

She follows the moderate republican line in congress whenever she feels it will help her get votes,

she panders to the blacks when that suits her purpose and then...

she drags out her husband when she needs to imply that a halo of economic prosperity will surround her and the country reminescent of the 90"s.

Just how does any of this ammount to leadership? It sounds more like flim-flam to me

Leadership is Biden or Dodd

Experience is Biden or Dodd

lack of obligation to special interest lobbyists is Biden and Dodd

Imagine a national campaign where the republican smear machine can allude to slick willy and monica whenever they want to turn up the heat.

God knows what they have dug up about her, but they sure seem anxious to have her as their competitor in 08

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:36 PM on 12/29/2007

Why isn't bushs' veto of the defense bill being reported more? Isn't it needed so we can be ready for WWIII? Now, with whats going on in Pakistan, that time might be sooner than ever. Or was it all just a political ploy. Also, I read on page 20 something in todays paper here that Nashvilles voter registration info has all been stolen over the weekend. I just wanted to mention that too. thanks

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:19 PM on 12/29/2007

Originally I was smitten by Obama. I thought he was the person who could bring the nation back. But as the campaign has gone on, and with every debate, and every statement he's made, I've become less and less convinced that he was ready. Hell, I'm no longer even sure he stands for the things I originally thought he did. Still, I would love to see him be the V.P. and then the President in 2016.

The more I've read and listened and studied each candidate's platforms, the more I've determined that Edwards is the person to get us there.

I was admittedly a late arriver to the party as far as Edwards goes. I was not impressed with Edwards in 2004. I thought his sunny message a bit naive. I hated his stance on the Iraq war and on the Patriot Act. So I pretty much discounted him in the early going this time around.

But the more I read, and the more I hear the things Edwards says, the stronger my conviction becomes that he is the right person to be president. I believe he has matured as a person, admitted mistakes and is ready to lead.

Edwards is the only person in my opinion who can dig us out after the 8 years of Bush. He is passionate, earnest, and represents the ideals that are important to me as a progressive Democrat.

If Edwards is true to his word, he'll be the only real populist Democratic president in the last..what...30 years?

We're looking at an ever-widening chasm between the haves and have nots. We are in dire need of a president who will fight for the people; who has the courage to do what might not always be popular, and certainly not what is convenient; and who possesses the energy and charisma to get it done.

We need an FDR or RFK.

I don't know for sure yet if Edwards is such a person, but I'm hoping so.

There really isn't a good alternative.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:12 PM on 12/29/2007

The Democrats have a long history of nominating the unelectable. (And, if you have forgotten, it isn't the person we elect to office, it is the members of his or her party and those who sponsor them, that matter.)

Forecast (a _bet_, even): If Aunt Hillary wins the Democratic nomination, we will (shudder!) have another Republican in the White House come January 2008.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:03 PM on 12/29/2007

I think John Edawards is the candidate who can take on the RepuhThugs in the general election. It is just not the matter of experience & fresh face but can they win the general election. IMO Repugthugs will eat Obama alive even before he realises what hit him... Democrats need a candidate who can take on the RepugThugs who will throw everything they got & they know how to do it ..The swiftboat of Kerry, the mud at the Governor of georgia who has limbs missing from Vietnam, the mud slinging on John McCain in 2000, & many other below the belt tactics ...Democrtas better get a guy who can dish it out equally hard or say goodbye to WH...
These godly RepugThugs run the meanest campaigns & Democrats better get their act together ...Amen

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 06:10 PM on 12/29/2007

For what it's worth, those of you who absolutely "hate" everyone else but "your" candidate, please think over what you will do when your candidate does not win. If we are all over the place and vote for the underdogs, (no matter how good or capable they may be), or even if we branched out and went Independent, I'm guessing we'll forfeit the election to the NeoCons.
IMHO all the candidates are a breath of fresh air compared to the village idiot that's running th country now. I don't see how we can get any worse.

And for those who think Hillary is a "bitch" (which seems to be a lot of people I talk to), I just have to ask, are you men who think she's a bitch??? Just curious to know if there is more prejudice than we might think when it comes to a female President. If it's a bitchy type guy, he's macho, if it's a strong determined woman, she's a bitch.
Btw, in case you're wondering, I don NOT plan to vote for Hillary, but if she ends up being "the" nominee I will vote for her.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:50 PM on 12/29/2007

"says Susan Pinkus, the Los Angeles Times polling director. If they choose Obama it's about personal characteristics, whereas for Clinton it's her leadership on issues.''

What a load of crap, as if Clinton were a "great leader", and Obama wasn't.

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:24 AM on 12/29/2007

"Edwards received higher marks than Clinton for candor and integrity but did not match up with Obama on "most personal traits or as Clinton on most of the policy issues."

Edwards has consistently led on the issues, e.g. health care. His plan led the field and indeed was the model for Clinton's. My guess is the lack of attention from the media, especially the print press, has diluted or obscured this for the public. Edwards has not spent the kind of money on television and paid campaign workers that Clinton has in Iowa, more than in any primary race in history.

And he still is going to win this thing. That says something about the power of retail politics, yes, but also about the tremendous drive and strength of Edwards as an individual. Can you imagine having a president with that kind of energy and intelligence and power to inspire? And, as noted in the poll: "integrity and candor". How novel is that?

favoriteFavorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:26 AM on 12/29/2007
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About Sam Stein

Sam Stein is a Political Reporter at the Huffington Post, based in Washington, D.C. Previously he has worked for Newsweek magazine, the New York Daily News and the investigative journalism group Center for Public Integrity. He has a masters from the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and is a graduate of Dartmouth College. Sam can be reached at stein@huffingtonpost.com.


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Sam Stein is a Political Reporter at the Huffington Post, based in Washington, D.C. Previously he has worked for Newsweek Magazine, the New York Daily News and the investigative journalism group Center for Public Integrity.
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