Obama Rivals Say Des Moines Register Poll Can't Be Trusted

Ames, Iowa -- Playing down the importance of the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll - Hillary Clinton booster and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack cited two other surveys Tuesday morning when he introduced her at a New Year's Day town hall meeting in here.

"Two polls out this morning indicate Sen. Clinton is ahead," Vilsack told the crowd, citing two other newly-released surveys by CNN and Zogby. "Momentum is on our side, I can feel it."

Clinton's pitch was aimed heavily at undecided Iowans. Her campaign had built the crowd by scrubbing their lists for undecided caucus-goers who were open to Clinton's message and making sure they turned out to hear her speak.

Joined by her mother Dorothy Rodham and daughter Chelsea on a frigid day, Hillary said she knew she was competing for Iowans' attention with six football games -- including an Arkansas game -- something she said she learned from her husband Bill.

The message from Clinton, as well as from John Edwards' campaign, was meant to dilute the impact of the respected Des Moines Register survey, which found that Obama had widened his lead to seven points, placing him for the first time outside the poll's margin of error.

Last night at the Obama headquarters on Locust Street in downtown Des Moines, staffers who were spending New Year's there - and a steady stream of supporters coming in from the cold - were ebullient over the poll results. Not only did it portent well for Caucus Day, but they believed it could impact undecided voters who were worried about Obama's electability.

That's why, as soon as the poll results hit the Web at 9:00 pm Iowa time, Obama's chief rivals blasted out memos knocking down the findings and offering "guidance" to reporters who were rushing out their final campaign stories of 2007.

"Is the poll accurate? There are good reasons to think it is NOT," wrote Edwards spokesman Eric Schwartz in an email sent out twenty minutes after the poll was released.

Schwartz said the fact that the poll was conducted over a holiday weekend made it difficult to obtain an accurate sample. He also said its measurement of independent and undecided voters was at odds with Iowa history.

Clinton pollster Mark Penn agreed. In his own analysis, Penn declared, "The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race."

But the stature of the Des Moines Register survey -- the most respected in the state -- gave a big boost to Obama's crew Monday night. Within minutes of the poll's release, an Obama staffer at the Des Moines Holiday Inn was gushing into his cell phone, "Happy New Year Dad! I think we're gonna win this!"

Amidst revelry at the crowded Obama headquarters, staffers gathered for a midnight conference call where the Illinois Senator addressed the troops. Staffers ate pizza and carried in champagne, but the word last night was moderation in order to be in good shape for another long day on Tuesday. Obama staffers privately cautioned the troops not to be overconfident.

The two polls trumpeted by the Clinton camp Tuesday showed the New York Senator leading her two rivals, albeit within the statistical margin of error.

Clinton stressed her experience at the town hall, and while she did not quite use the words of her husband Bill - who said electing Obama president would be a roll of the dice - she did say "I am not asking that you take me on a leap of faith."

"I am asking you to look at the evidence and the record," Senator Clinton said, because "we don't have any margin for error or time to waste. We need a new beginning for America." She did not mention her chief rivals by name.

Perhaps in a sign that the Clinton camp is trying to keep the mood light in the final push before Caucus Day, campaign chairman Terry McAullife plans to host a "karaoke extravaganza" for staffers and supporters Tuesday night at a bar in Des Moines.

Check out the rest of HuffPost's Iowa coverage.

Comments

[Claisen]

03:41 AM on 01/02/2008

The only thing that can be trusted here on HuffPo is that if there are 10 polls and 9 of them shows Hillary ahead, Huffpo will never show those 9 polls and then put in big headlines here, like WWIII has begun, and PIMP that 1 poll that shows Obama ahead. That's the only thing that you can count on here.

[baghdadjoe]

11:47 PM on 01/01/2008

That's interesting.. but I think the real problem is that too many Americans think Hillary can't be trusted.

I am one of them.

[nellie]

11:25 PM on 01/01/2008

Not only Rivals say polls can't be trusted. Obama said it, too.

I wish journalists would find a way to compare and contrast the candidates besides these ever-changing, worthless poll numbers.

[campaignman]

11:21 PM on 01/01/2008

Tidbit

Has anyone watched "Sicko?" Hillary has taken more money from the health insurance companies than nearly anyone else on the Democratic side in Congress.

[campaignman]

11:18 PM on 01/01/2008

Hillary has gotten away with one here but it's not the first time.

The MSM isn't calling her on this because it missed it and hates to highlight its own incompetence, even if it means highlighting Hillary's true lack of knowledge that her EXPERIENCE is supposed to have supplied.

Still, the NYT already exposed Hillary as having NO foreign policy experience and no achievements in Congress and no one wanted to talk about it. Why should this be any different?

The MSM loves Hillary. She's a great story if she comes back to win and many of the folks in the MSM covering this election used to work for her husband!

[campaignman]

11:10 PM on 01/01/2008

Clinton errs on Pakistan

Politico

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was praised in the wake of the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto for demonstrating her command of the players and the issues at stake in Pakistan, even as another candidate, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, was criticized for stumbling over details.

But in two confident television appearances, on CNN and ABC, Clinton made an elementary error about Pakistani politics: She described President Pervez Musharraf as a "candidate" who would be "on the ballot."

In fact, Musharraf was reelected to the presidency in October. The upcoming elections are for parliament, and while Musharraf's party will be facing off against opposition parties, the president himself is not a candidate.

"He will NOT be on the ballot," said a Pakistan scholar at Columbia University, Philip Oldenburg, in an e-mail. "These are parliamentary elections, where the contests are for a seat in the national assembly.
The prime ministerial candidate typically fights for victory in a local constituency, as well as lead[ing] the party in a national campaign."

A spokesman for Clinton, Howard Wolfson, said Clinton was referring to Musharraf's party, not the president himself.

And Oldenburg said that "how well the PML-Q, the so-called 'King's Party,' does would in effect be a referendum on Musharraf."

But Clinton's words appear unambiguously to describe Musharraf himself as a candidate.

"If President Musharraf wishes to stand for election, then he should abide by the same rules that every other candidate will have to follow," she told CNN's Wolf Blitzer (.pdf) Dec. 28.

"He could be the only person on the ballot. I don't think that's a real election," she told ABC's George Stephanopolous December 30.

Her error was first noted by a conservative American commentator, Thomas Houlahan.

[bluesky49876]

11:05 PM on 01/01/2008

Pretty much like you cannot trust HuffPost for an objective opinion or facts.

[Rubiconski]

10:47 PM on 01/01/2008

Vote for Hillary? Why would anybody wanna do that?

The Clintons had their turn.

These dysfunctional spazzies need to step aside.

It's Obama's time. Strong, calm and rational.

With solid family values ALL Americans can be proud of.

Americans need Obama in this crucial time.

Katrina showed us that large segments of the population have been left out of the equation for far too long.

It's not a ping pong game between two families....It's our country!

[CGrace]

10:26 PM on 01/01/2008

The DMR poll is the poll that everyone had been waiting for because it is considered the best poll in Iowa. Now, Clinton and Edwards are whining because they don't like the results? Hillary thought the Des Moines Register was just great after endorsing her. The DMR poll was the only one that got it right 4 years ago. They had Kerry at 1, Edwards 2nd, and Dean in 3rd. Now the poll is worthless?

And by the way, what's with Hillary on CNN 24/7? Every time Wolfie is on the air, he is showing video of Hillary.

[USMC1980]

10:20 PM on 01/01/2008

It's not that the Des Moines register poll is untrustworthy, but it's only one poll of three released yesterday, the other two (Insider Advantage, and Reuters/Zogby) show Hillary in the lead in Iowa by 4-6 points. Of course the Obama loving Huffpo, and Hillary hating Mainstream media are trumpeting the DMR one, becuase they are so desperate to have Obama win...but, it just aint gonna happen. At best Obama will come out second, and the Media will look like idiots...yet again.

[MinerSam]

10:06 PM on 01/01/2008

No intellectually honest person who saw Hillary's speech, on C-SPAN aired on Sunday, or Bill's speech on New Years Eve (also available on C-SPAN's site..would have in their right mind ever come away from these
with anything but positive feelings and confidence in Senator Hillary Clinton.

..No matter whether the Republican controlled Media is building up Obama and Edwards so they can pick them off later or not!

But the sadest part of this is that the Republicans now controll the left!

[lornejl]

09:43 PM on 01/01/2008

Obama is a reach across the aisle kind of guy, that makes him either a big fat ass phony, or naive, either way, screw that.

[mariano]

09:23 PM on 01/01/2008

So the Dec 15th Des Moines Register's endorsement of Clinton was likewise untrustworthy?

[VivaZapata]

09:03 PM on 01/01/2008

Right or wrong, Hillary is so hated by so many and that won't change.

[bodi1313]

08:27 PM on 01/01/2008

No Eric from France, I am a white women who lives in the South. I also lived in Europe for 17 years.

I said what I did because Clinton has held the lead nationally for the past year, with very little fluctuation.
Do you suppose in New Jersey for example, where Clinton holds a 34 point lead, that all of a sudden after Iowa, all those people are going to go for Obama?
Not going to happen. Clinton is leading all the Super Tuesday states, except for Illinois (Obama's state) and
New Mexico (Richardson's state).

Everyone was all ga ga over Howard Dean, he lost the nomination to John Kerry.