Obama Rivals Say Des Moines Register Poll Can't Be Trusted

The campaigns of Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John Edwards take issue with the Des Moines Register poll's unusual methodology, which predicts turnout at this year's Democratic caucus to be 40 percent Independents and five percent Republicans.

From Clinton's campaign:

The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.

The Des Moines Register Poll this time has 40% independent voters and 5% GOP voters in the poll when past independent participation has been 15% in 2000 and 19% in 2004, and the GOP has generally made up 1% of the vote. So they are depicting an unprecedented departure from historically established turnout patterns in the caucus. Under their model, only 55% of the caucus goers would be Democrats.

The other recent polls all show Hillary trending up and leading or within 1 point of the lead, and many show her moving up from a substantial deficit to tie and having the momentum in this race.

Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/19: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22
Zogby, 12/27-12/30: Clinton 30, Edwards 26, Obama 26
Mason-Dixon, 12/26-12/18: Clinton 23, Edwards 24, Obama 22
Research 2000, 12/27-12/27: Clinton 28, Edwards 29, Obama 29
ARG, 12/26-12/28: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 24
Insider Advantage, 12/28-12/19: Clinton 30, Edwards 29, Obama 22

So we do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.

From the Edwards campaign:

Is the poll accurate? There are good reasons to think it is NOT.

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-The poll was conducted during the holiday AND over the weekend. There is plenty of evidence that either of these would make it more difficult to obtain a representative sample. The combination makes the problem of obtaining a valid sample GEOMETICALLY [sic] worse.

-The poll is at odds with history. The poll says that 60% of Democratic caucus participants will be first timers. Usually, the number of first-time caucus goers is no more than 20%.

-The poll also says that 45% of those at Democratic caucuses will be Independents or Republicans.

The poll is at odds with other polls. Other polls show a close race with other candidates leading.

-Yepsen himself highlights the fluidity of the results rather than the horserace.

What does the poll really say

-The poll says the race is close. With a margin of error of +/-5, any of the top 3 Democrats could be in any of the top 3 positions.

-The poll says the race is yet to be decided. 34% say they could change their minds, and 6% do not express a preference. This means 40% are yet to decide.

-As Yepsen points out, 21% of those in the 2004 entrance poll [said they had made their decisions in the last 3 days -- something this poll cannot capture.

Comments

[NoFactsJustTruth]

After watching CNN's version of the debates, it surprises NOBODY that ALL of 'their' polls show Hillary ahead.

ANYONE influenced by a poll, intead of 'THE ISSUES', disrespects their own vote.

[happykilt]

Is it just me but do the words trust and the name Clinton seem ironic to you?
www.purplestates.tv

[MJV135]

I'm hoping Obama comes in third just so I can see Chris Matthews cry on t.v.

I'm so petty sometimes.

[DBlake]

What do you believe is most important at this time for a Presidential Candidate to deliver?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1416
.

[JimK2]

>“The Register poll is including a surprising 40% of independents and 5% of >Republicans among the people likely to attend the Democratic caucuses. If that >pans out on January 4, it’s hard to see how Obama wouldn’t win. On the other hand, >as David Yepsen points out, Hillary is actually winning among Democrats, who made >up 80% of the caucus-goers last cycle

Obama is the independents and Republicans choice in Iowa and Hillary is the Democratic choice.

Must be nice for the Republicans, to be able to choose there Democratic nominee.....

[truthyguy]

BS BS BS
The only thing that means anything is the actual vote. Polls show Billary in the top 1 or 2 but when you look at the bloggers' comments, few support her. Who are these pollsters talking to?

[hazmaq]

CNN wouldn't say a bad word about Hillary if she shoved a Katushya up Larry Kings ass.

The Des Moines Register knows their people and are mostly DLC types -so I trust their outcome more than most other polls. They wouldn't give Obama any breaks in the questioning.

And thanks to the heavens for DENNIS KUCINICH!!
To a true lover of justice and equality for all Dennis is one of Obama's best endorsements yet and he'll always be our hero.
We can only hope Dennis replaces any of the following, ASAP: Hoyer, Pelosi, Emanuel, Harmon, or Lantos.

[WomanInOrangeSweater]

In a primary where it's critical to get supporters off their butts and to the caucuses, wouldn't high poll numbers potentially help the candidates with the lower numbers? Wouldn't it motivate them to get out there and support their candidate, even if it's -40 degrees and blizzarding? It would me.

[mouselion]

Being from Vermont, and never having even been to Des Moines, I couldn't know about the Register's accountability at anything.

However, I will say this: After the past two elections resulting in seven years of pure hell at the hands of the Disastrous Duo, non-partisan (such as myself) and third-party independent voters are going to be aligning themselves with Democrats -- as well as certain number of disgruntled moderate Republicans. This is a time for joining forces closely and voting strategically.

What the Clinton, Edwards and everybody else needs to realize is that the voter turn-out for everything from these caucuses, all the way to the general elections is going to be an entirely different landscape than ever before. The American voting population has overwhelmingly had it with the spastic approach of the almost-former administration, and, everybody but the folks who are still proud of voting for Bush are on a mission to block the presidency from more knuckleheadedness.

[Kane]

I love the smell of DLC panic in the morning.
It smells like...victory.

[Nochnoi]

I can hear Hillary screaming now.... "They only count if they say I am going to be president!!"

[Maxbyte]

I don't accept either the Clinton explanation, or the Edwards explanation... except that the Register's polls are unreliable. The Register's poll results are unreliable for a variety of reasons. First among them is that no competent researcher publishes a poll that has 40% of the sample 'undecided' or 'not strongly committed to any candidate'.

Moreover, the fact that caucus-goers are permitted to vote frequently for multiple candidates is a moving target that cannot be measured.

The primary problem with the Register's polls is that they are not just methodologically flawed, they proliferate stupid notions with imaginary findings. In my opinion, the Register is a half-penny rag that lacks journalistic rigor from start to finish.

[longislandlol]

CNN-- Otherwise known as the Clinton's New Network-- they would do or say anything on that network to favor the Clinton's-- much the same way that FOX has become Guiliani's paradise....

[grammology]

We own an Obama blog site and still can't tell what he's going to do for sure. It's a wait and see...

Dorothy from grammology
remember to call gram
http://grammology.com

[fullkelly]

Go on over to Slate and read the "candidate futures". The odds are 3to 1 Hillary.

Meaning 66.3 % are putting their money on Hillary. Unless the odds have changed in the last three hours.

These folks at Politcal Futures are reading the real numbers before betting, and are not merely accepting the phone surveys POLLS numbers. Again, meaning 66.3% of the majority of investors are investing in Hillary Clinton.