Giuliani Camps Out In New Hampshire As Late-State Strategy Implodes

Bedford, N.H. -- With his "late state strategy" slowly imploding, Rudy Giuliani now plans to campaign full-time from this Friday through next Tuesday's primary in a last ditch drive for a face-saving showing in New Hampshire, where his chances of winning have inexorably eroded over the past four months.

Odds are overwhelming that a Giuliani victory in New Hampshire is beyond reach - he is running 18.8 points behind Mitt Romney and 21.3 points behind John McCain, according to RealClearPolitics.

But even worse for the New York Mayor is the fact that his once-promising chances in Michigan on January 15 and in South Carolina on January19 have turned into long shots -- and even in Florida, whose primary is on January 29, Giuliani's numbers are declining.

"There is one very good word to describe Rudy's 'late state' strategy," Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who is not affiliated with any presidential campaign, told the Huffington Post: "Implausible." Another unaffiliated GOP pollster, Neil Newhouse, gave HuffPost his own view of Giuliani's current status: "Almost an afterthought."

John Weaver, the Texan who was chief strategist for John McCain, but who is now is not working for any candidate, compared Giuliani's strategy to that of Union Civil War General George McClellan: "McClellan, a lot of song and dance, beautiful parades and bold strategies. But at the end of the day. it never amounted to anything."

At a press briefing here in New Hampshire today, the former New York Mayor was hard-pressed to defend his approach to winning the Republican nomination.

"None of this [declining support Michigan and South Carolina] worries me. These are all tactics," he said. "For every pro, there is a con."

The only other Republican candidate to campaign in New Hampshire today is John McCain, who is scheduled to fly in from Iowa late this afternoon.

On Friday, however, all the candidates still left standing after the returns come in on the Iowa caucuses, Republican and Democrat, will be flooding the state in what appears likely to be the most intense five days of campaigning in the history of New Hampshire.

For Giuliani, the trends here and elsewhere have been troubling. In recent months, he has suffered a glut of adverse publicity concerning his extramarital affair with the woman who has become his third wife while serving as New York Mayor, and criminal charges against Bernie Kerick, Giuliani's Police Commissioner and the candidate Giuliani proposed to President Bush as secretary of the Homeland Security Department.

Today, Giuliani argued that his plan of absorbing losses until the Florida and the multi-state February 5 primaries "is the strategy we chose close to day one."

In fact, however, Giuliani has seen what had been solid chances of winning here, in Michigan and in South Carolina become marginal at best.

In March of this year, Giuliani was number one in New Hampshire polls, and in September and early October he was within 2 to 4 points of taking the lead. In Michigan, surveys showed Giuliani close to or in the lead all the way to the beginning of December; now, he is running in third place, well behind Romney and McCain. Finally, in South Carolina, Giuliani held onto first place throughout the summer, only to fall to fourth place in the most recent polling.

"Now that he is not doing as well has he was previously, the risks have multiplied," said Newhouse. "The facts on the ground are passing Rudy by."

Comments

[Navy26Yrs]

03:06 PM on 01/04/2008

Troodie - Fear over hope.

[PlanetKansas]

02:36 PM on 01/04/2008

Why is anybody taking Gulliani seriously? He has no intention of winning, and the religious right will never allow his nomination.

It is all posturing for name recognition so he can sell his name to the highest bidder as a "consultant", "Speaker", "Spokesman." He also gets to keep whatever campaign money is left over, so the entire race is just a sham to line his ego and his pockets.

Like Fred Thompson, both are doing it to improve their marketability and to please their high maintenance wives.

Because neither are not serious, they can test the Republican platform by tossing out pro-war, anti-immigration hand grenades and see how they float. How successful they are will define the next agenda.

[LORISNJ]

01:41 PM on 01/04/2008

You can tell Rudy never learned the parenting lessons most mothers of more than one child knows - you can't spend all your time and attention on one child (the bad child) and ignore the good child - it doesn't work at home and it doesn't work in politics.

Rudy saw that he was ahead in New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Carolina, so he ignored them and camped out in Florida. And his strategy didn't work, instead he will lose all 4 (NH, MI, SC, & IA). And what about Florida, the only thing I can think of is that Rudy was down there to implement some shady tactics, and to buy off a few public officals to insure a win - chances are Rudy will be out of the race before Florida.

RuRu goes bye bye.

If he doesn't do well in NH I am sure he will have a cancer flair-up that will require him to drop out of the race. I hope he siphons off a lot of contributions of the Republican supporters before that happens (less money for the rest of the Republicans).

[samuraijack]

01:36 PM on 01/04/2008

Man, that is one scary mug in the photograph. Just substitute "Il Douche" underneath. He could play Mussolini in the screen version (see American Conservative magazine cover). What piece of crap, and I mean that spiritually and literally.

[clumberfeet]

01:30 PM on 01/04/2008

"Giuliani Camps Out In NH As Late-State Strategy Implodes."
Steely political candidates like Rudy Giuliani implode and free fall at the speed of gravity all the time.
Did Silverstein Properties have an insurance policy on him?

[ManipulatedByMedia]

01:24 PM on 01/04/2008

Would have liked to see the headline "RON PAUL BEATS RUDY IN IOWA" ROFL

[ajax2]

12:45 PM on 01/04/2008

Giulliani a tragic figure. The 1930's and fascism have come and gone.

[LittleGreenGreaseBalls]

11:36 AM on 01/04/2008

Buh bye JulieAnnie. Time to go looking for another wife........

[mouselion]

11:35 AM on 01/04/2008

My twin neighbor on the other side of the Connecticut River will be the death knell for Mayor Giulliani.

Don't think he can campaign by not opening his mouth, which could be his only hope.

R.I.P., Giulliani presidential pipe-dream.

Now go on now and play your other games until we figure out how to completely disarm you from further attempts at damaging our society.

[ajax2]

11:14 AM on 01/04/2008

Rudy, riding the tail of Il Duce hides in Florida.

[ThePhantom]

11:03 AM on 01/04/2008

Don't count this guy out. He has not yet begun to fight.

[jhink465]

10:58 AM on 01/04/2008

Wow! The picture of Giuliani that accompanies this post is a dead ringer for Il Duce. I guess would be dictators all have a similar profile.

[frappe]

10:28 AM on 01/04/2008

I hope that Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson are all thrashed in NH and, in the process, their respective campaigns brought to a conclusion. Giuliani's rhetoric, in particular, is so very, very "Bush II" -- "Be afraid. Be very afraid." It's tiresome and overdone.

We're tired of the fear mongering and tired of being victimized by the special interest money that has so thoroughly corrupted the political process. We're disgusted with the "status quo". We want change. Real change.

And we'd like our representatives to try what is apparently to them a novel approach to governing. And that is to first listen to the voice of the people, their true constituents, addressing their needs and aspirations first, before any consideration is given to corporate America's demands or wish lists. In other words, get the money out of politics so that our government can function in the manner that it was intended by our Founding Fathers.

Our democracy needs healing in a very serious and fundamental way. I am confident that Democrats, Independents, and all reasonable and rational Republicans will show up at the polls in Nov. and put an emphatic and decisive end to the nonsense and insanity that has plagued our government and infested its policies over these past seven years.

We need real change and we need it now.

[speakeasy]

10:28 AM on 01/04/2008

9-11 9-11 9-11 9-11 9-11 9-11 9-11 9-11 9-11
terror terror terror terror terror terror
fear fear fear fear fear fear fear fear
infidelity infideleity infidelity
kerik kerik kerik kerik kerik
3 wives 3 wives 3 wives
mafia mafia mafia
9-11 9-11 9-11
fear fear
squeak

[WilliePilgrim]

10:25 AM on 01/04/2008

How could Giuliani and his tub thumpin' patriotism, his scads of free rides on Fox and the other cable news outlets and his...in case you've forgotten...his 9/11 connection be left so far behind these other unsophisticated yahoos? I'm referring to Ron Paul...ha ha. I hope Ron Paul shows the others that Iowa was fine for those that believe in State Religion, but I think NH will find that libertarianism cleaves closest to the ideals we seek.