Iowa Electronic Markets Show Solid Clinton Lead

Three Republican candidates are tightly bunched in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets, where people place real money on the line to predict the nomination outcome.

As of 9 a.m. Caucus Day, Mitt Romney led the Republican market with a 26.4 cent price (or a 26.4% chance of winning the nomination.) A resurgent John McCain recently moved into second place at 25.1 cents as of 9 a.m. He traded for as little as 8 cents as recently as Dec. 7.

Rudy Giuliani, who led the field most of the way,has dropped to 23 cents. The market predicts likelihood of winning the nomination, not Iowa caucus percentage.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic market at 57.5 cents. Barack Obama is at 30.8 cents and John Edwards is third at 10.6 cents.

Prices on both sides are likely to shift rapidly overnight as the caucus results are reported. The nominations are a winner take all market; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

Click here to see the charts, and to read more from the Iowa Independent.

Check out the rest of HuffPost's Iowa coverage.

Comments

[volum]

If this was in favor of Obama, every HuffPo commenter would be popping champagne and talking about the credibility of this poll.

Since it's HRC, noone even wants to read the article.

[kj593]

I think these are the quotes for the Democratic Nominee. Obama was up huge in the markets to win Iowa (for whatever it's worth).

[juliewolves]

What the markets predict is what corporate America prefers, nothing else.

[gaiilonfong]

Wow such nonsense

[eshalom]

Iowans sound like sensible people who understand the importance of Hillary Clinton's qualifications: experience, responsibility, knowledge, wisdom, strong work ethic, years of demonstrated compassion for those in need, leadership skills, and proven competence under extreme pressure.

In addition to all the above, Hillary Clinton has obviously had the strength and self confidence to withstand years of verbal abuse from the linguistically challenged, foul-mouthed extremes on the left and the right who are apparently so threatened by her.

[Kane]

Yawn...

[unwilledatom]

Are the Iowa markets a prediction of the caucus outcome or the national outcome?