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GOP Looks Ahead To Fight With Obama For White House
Heading into the primary season, conventional wisdom held that Hillary Clinton was virtually the only figure who could rally a divided and relatively cash-strapped Republican Party. Clinton, after all, had negative rankings higher than any other Democrat, and has long been viewed derisively within many GOP circles.
So with Sen. Barack Obama, D-IL, vaulting over Clinton in Thursday's Iowa caucus, Republican rank-and-file must surely be a bit disappointed, right? Well, yes and no.
While GOP insiders see an easier, more traditional path towards defeating Clinton in a general election, they also are relatively confident in their ability to mount a successful run against Obama should he emerge the Democratic victor. Far from the personalized campaign that would be deployed against Clinton - whom they still believe has a strong chance of capturing the nomination - attacks against Obama would be rooted primarily in policy differences.
"The trouble with Obama is that it is hard to attack the generic, positive appeal that he offers, just as it was hard in 1976 to get a bead on Jimmy Carter," Steve Hayward, a fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, told the Huffington Post. "Oddly enough, there is a prospect that the best course for the GOP would be to press Obama about his specific policy ideas, and then debate the substance of them. Imagine that!"
Indeed, while Obama fairs better than Clinton against every potential Republican challenger, most GOP observers still expect a close White House race. Republicans may be hesitant to make an issue of Obama's personal attributes - preferring to let outside groups do the dirty work lest they be viewed as racially insensitive - but there are several areas in his political resume that could spark conservative backlash.
"In some ways Hillary Clinton is seen by Republicans as more rational on national security issue and on issue of defense. And if the Democratic Party continues to be in turmoil over how to conduct foreign policy and national security policy, Republicans don't have much to worry about," said Terry Holt, a partner in the Republican lobbying firm HDMK and national spokesman for president Bush's 2004 campaign. "Republicans know Hillary is scary, no question about it. But by general election time, Barack Obama will be at least as scary."
And yet, not every Republican strategist sees Obama weaknesses that are ripe for GOP picking. His health care plan, for starters, does not require a mandate (unlike Clinton's or Sen. John Edwards') making it less susceptible to cross-party-line attack. And his willingness to buck the trend on some foreign policy issues - such as saying he would target Osama bin Laden in Pakistan should the Pakistani government prove uncooperative - don't align him with traditional Democratic thinking.
"If he is the nominee you won't be able to fight the war with the conventional weapons," said Craig Shirley, president of Shilrey and Bannister Public Affairs. "The weapons tried and tested against the Clintons and against Hillary - the whole specter of big sister, I'm watching you, her adoration of government as a panacea for all the ills of society - can't really be used on Obama. This guy is not only a very good politician, I also think he is more conservative than people give him credit for."
And while, admittedly, there is no Republican presidential campaign who has emerged as a potential Obama-slayer, it is also far beyond premature to rule Clinton out of the Democratic running.
"Hillary Clinton isn't going anywhere," said Holt. "She has the most viable national campaign of any candidate in the race. Obama is untested when it comes to the day-to-day, hand-to-hand combat of the national campaign and he hasn't been fully vetted like she has."
Added Shirley: "Hillary isn't out of this thing and won't be for a long time. She's invested her whole life in this and she raised more than 100 million dollars. These are smart people and they will find someone to take advantage in New Hampshire. They aren't going to play dead. And even if they don't win there they have a long way to go and will challenge Obama elsewhere."
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January 4, 2008 02:13 PM