See The Latest NH Polls: Who's Up, Who's Down?

The Huffington Post   |   January 6, 2008 06:27 PM


stumbleupon :See The Latest NH Polls: Who's Up, Who's Down?   digg: See The Latest NH Polls: Who's Up, Who's Down?   reddit: See The Latest NH Polls: Who's Up, Who's Down?   del.icio.us: See The Latest NH Polls: Who's Up, Who's Down?

USA Today/Gallup (January 4-6)

Obama 41
Clinton 28
Edwards 19
Richardson 6

McCain 34
Romney 30
Huckabee 13
Paul 8
Giuliani 8
Thompson <3
Hunter <3

The surveys of 776 New Hampshire residents who are "likely" to vote in the Republican primary and 778 New Hampshire residents who are "likely" to vote in the Democratic primary were all completed after the news from Thursday's Iowa caucuses had been reported.

Each figure has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. So Obama's lead is "outside" that range, while McCain's is not.

See the full results here.

***

RealClearPolitics.com Average (January 6, 7:15pm ET)

Obama 35.1
Clinton 30.3
Edwards 18.3
Richardson 5.9

McCain 32.6
Romney 28
Huckabee 11.9
Giuliani 8.7
Paul 8.1
Thompson 2.4

See full results here.

***

CNN/WMUR/UNH Poll (January 5-6 )

Obama 39
Clinton 29
Edwards 16
Richardson 7

McCain 32
Romney 26
Huckabee 14
Giuliani 11
Paul 10
Hunter 1
Thompson 1

The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, surveyed 341 likely Democrats and 268 Republicans likely to vote in Tuesday's primary. It had a sampling error of 5 percentage points.

See the full results here.


***

MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon (January 6)

Obama 33
Clinton 31
Edwards 17
Richardson 7

McCain 32
Romney 24
Huckabee 12
Giuliani 10
Paul 8

See full results here.

***

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby (January 6)

Obama 31
Clinton 30
Edwards 20
Richardson 7

McCain 31
Romney 32
Huckabee 12
Giuliani 7
Paul 6

See full results here.

***

Concord Monitor (January 5)

Obama 34
Clinton 33
Edwards 23
Richardson 4
Kucinich 3

McCain 35
Romney 29
Huckabee 13
Giuliani 8
Paul 7
Thompson 3

See full results here.

***

CNN/WMUR Poll (January 4-5)

Clinton 33%
Obama 33%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 4%
Kucinich 2%

Sampling error: +/-5% pts

McCain 33%
Romney 27%
Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 9%
Hunter 1%
Thompson 1%

Sampling error: +/-5% pts

See full results here.

***

American Research Group (January 5)

Obama 38%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 20%
Undecided 8%
Richardson 3%
Gravel 3%
Kucinich 1%

Barack Obama leads John Edwards among men 42% to 21%, with 19% for Hillary Clinton. Among women, Obama leads Clinton 35% to 31%, with 20% for Edwards. Clinton leads Obama among Democrats 34% to 32%, while Obama leads Edwards among undeclared voters (independents) 49% to 21%.

McCain 39%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 6%
Undecided 6%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 1%
Thompson 1%

John McCain leads Mitt Romney among men 42% to 21% and McCain leads Romney 35% to 30% among women. McCain leads Romney 44% to 19% among undeclared (independent) voters, with 18% for Huckabee. Undeclared voters are now 27% of the total Republican vote.

See full results here.

***

Rasmussen Reports (January 4)

Obama 37%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 19%
Richardson 8%
Kucinich 3%
Gravel 1%

See full results here.

McCain 31%
Romney 26%
Paul 14%
Huckabee 11%
Giuliani 8%
Thompson 5%
Some other candidate 2%

See full results here.

***

Check out HuffPost's comprehensive on-the-ground New Hampshire coverage here.


 
Comments
532
Pending Comments
0
iPhone App Promo

Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to

View Comments:
Page: « First ‹ Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Next › Last » (9 pages total)
- Maxbyte I'm a Fan of Maxbyte 15 fans permalink
photo

RealClearPolitics.com has not conducted a poll. They have averaged other polls, none of which are comparable.

CNN tracking is suggesting Clinton is at or near 40%, and Obama is under 30%.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:44 PM on 01/06/2008
photo

The best source for polling results I've found is here:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Polls are updated daily at 7:30 am (EST) and a mouse over map comes in handy to get a quick over-view. For super tuesday, (Feb 5th) it should come in handy.

But, the subject of cell phones is becoming more relevant as more people are dropping their land lines. Something that may have direct relevance since the demographic of independents and younger voters seems to be increasing along with that trend.

This may explain why the Demoines Register poll was the only accurate predictor of the outcome and fuel rumors that they have created a new model for factoring in the gap of different phone technologies.

(from a study posted at electoral vote.com):

"Preliminary results from the July-December 2006 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) indicate that the number of households with only wireless telephones continues to increase. During the last 6 months of 2006, more than 3 out of every 20 American homes (15.8%) did not have a landline telephone. Of those homes without a landline telephone, most had at least one working wireless telephone. Preliminary results from NHIS suggest that more than one out of every eight American homes (at least 12.8%) had only wireless telephones during the second half of 2006. These are the most up-to-date estimates available from the federal government concerning the size of this population­."

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/polling-faq.html#cell

If anything, it's possible that Hillary's team - and Mark Penn particulary since he's not only her strategist, but her pollster, as well - have used a system that neglects to account for this phenomenon.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:47 PM on 01/06/2008
- Lazslo I'm a Fan of Lazslo 9 fans permalink

The Zogby poll is the most reliable. It is extremely close on the dem primary. Recommend people in NH get out and vote on Tuesday, because it is really close and every vote will matter.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:17 PM on 01/06/2008
- nellie I'm a Fan of nellie 492 fans permalink
photo

I hate to see Edwards so low in the polls, but I hope he hangs in there.

I notice the figures only sum to 90, so does that mean 10 percent are still undecided? If that 10 percent splits evenly among the top three, we're looking at 37% for Obama, 34% for Clinton, and 22% for Edwards. Richardson comes in with about 6%—unless there's some major shift before Tuesday.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:56 PM on 01/06/2008
photo

Intelligence from the Hillary Clinton campaign..­. HILLARY HAS 6,000 PAID "BLOGGERS" AROUND THE COUNTRY, paid to post on political blogs. They are paid a flat fee and must pull a quota every week.... more coming soon....

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:52 PM on 01/06/2008

Let us not forget that Rush made his fortune off trying to take down Clinton from day 1. I can't imagine a better way to invigorate his career than to give him a second chance.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:46 PM on 01/06/2008

Its amazing to me how many people in the democratic party are trying to deligitmize Obama's surge. Its seems that democrats are more scared of change than republicans. Is it that hard to concieve of a new America? This is the problem, we have no backbone to imagine a different life. You want to use the same old (broken and useless) solutions to fix problems new and old. America is telling people that its time to try plan B. Like, MLK said everything starts with a dream and hope. The rest will fall into place.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:44 PM on 01/06/2008

I'm living in FL where our repug state reps decided to move our primary up to Jan 29th knowing full well that the DNC would strip us of our delagares at the convention. That being said , a very interesting thing happenned the day after Iowa. A Repug friend of mine changed his party affilliation to Dem so he could go vote for Hillary. He told me that he has to try to stop Obama at all cost. He knows that the anti-Hillary vote will come together helped by Rush, Hannity and the like to a point where it will seem that they are trying to stop the anti-christ or the devil herslf. He's afraid of Obama because he saw the young and independant voters flocking to him. With Hillary it's an easy win, with obama, he sees a disaster for the repugs.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:30 PM on 01/06/2008
- caywen I'm a Fan of caywen 7 fans permalink

Hillary is desparate and acting that way. On the debates, she said that she'd be the first woman president and that in itself represents change.

Barack, of course, didn't even touch that. It's obvious he'd be the first African-American president. Be he has rarely, rarely played the race card. Hillary plays the gender card way too often.

Hillary scares me how underhanded she is willing to be to win a vote. Has she no principles??

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:29 PM on 01/06/2008
- bg1 I'm a Fan of bg1 permalink

How much money are you willing to bet on Obama in the November election? All of it?
How about on Edwards or Clinton?

Who in Iowa actually voted for Obama? Well, white liberals, college students bussed in, and Republicans looking to derail the Dems.

Why did Obama"s presidential campaign receive its earliest substantial donations from the same right wingers who funded the Swift Boat attack ads against Kerry? (see See NYT"s story 3/7/07: Jared Abbruzzese " supporter of Swift Boats and Obama. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/07/us/politics/07obama.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all)
Why did Obama get his first major media mention from conservative pundits? Why is Fox gloating over him? Because they like his politics?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:10 PM on 01/06/2008
- larry278 I'm a Fan of larry278 47 fans permalink

Relying on polls is like masturbating while wearing boxing gloves. One wonders if being tagged as Wicked Witch of the West hurts her Hillaryship more than other candidates ganging up on her in debates & campaigining. Polls don't address the effect a pejorative tag has on a candidate quickly. Sen Clinton may now be stuck with the tag Wicked Witch of the West for life. She has the guts to go on with the Wicked Witch of the West tag as Ms Helmsley did with Queen of Mean. But will the tag take the '08 nomination from her? She will damned sure try to get the nomination-tag or no tag.
Only death can stop Hillary Clinton from having clout in politics regardless of campaign '08.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:27 PM on 01/06/2008

Wow! America you are going to get it wrong again, after Bush 41 you elected Bill Clinton who was republican lite. You got Nafta and the telecommunications act that has helped put this country on the road to Fascism. Now sadly your two favorites candidates are Obama and Hillary who are both republican lite. Sorry I have absolutely no hope for change in this country. Say goodbye to your job if you still have one, it's on it's way to China and India...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:54 PM on 01/06/2008
- Maxbyte I'm a Fan of Maxbyte 15 fans permalink
photo

Averaging polls is not reliable or useful. Notice that there is no margin of error in the RealClearPolitics.com poll average. That is because the margin of error cannot be obtained from fruit-basket combinations. The methodology in each poll is different from all or most of the others, and the time frames are different as well. Without a margin of error, the results are meaningless.

The best one can say at the moment is that the top two candidates in each party are tied. If new polls are released today or tomorrow, by almost anyone except ARG, the findings should be meaningful.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:23 AM on 01/06/2008
- Kenji I'm a Fan of Kenji 18 fans permalink
photo

Does anybody think Edwards would be willing to run again for VP, with the big O? He didn't help Kerry as much as he could have, for whatever reasons, and pols don't usually do it twice, but it would be a very string ticket just on the demographics. Thoughts?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:25 AM on 01/06/2008
- Titiman I'm a Fan of Titiman 2 fans permalink

I didnt know this Obama guy is so respected in the UK this much.

I just read the telegraph where i got accurate information about NH developments. they seem to get estatic with him.

I think he will make a good president for america and inprove the country's image abroad

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:13 AM on 01/06/2008
Page: « First ‹ Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Next › Last » (9 pages total)
Comments are closed for this entry

 You must be logged in to comment. Log in  or connect with 

Connect