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Sam Stein

The Huffington Post

New Hampshire Exit Polls Released; Massive Turnout At Polls

January 8, 2008 04:14 PM


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Manchester, N.H. --

UPDATE: Marc Ambinder reports on New Hampshire exit polls:

GOP: 3 in 10 GOP voters are independents ...many late deciders... McCain more electable than Romney...33% say economy is biggest issue followed by Iraq (22%) .... Democrats: 46% made up minds without last week.. 4 in 10 are independents.... HRC's favorability: 73%; Obama's: 84%; ... 36% say economy is top issue....

By mid-afternoon on election day, turnout at the polls here was already approaching historic levels. The combination of two hotly-contested primaries, inspiring election season themes of hope and change, and weather best suited for early spring had brought New Hampshire voters out in droves.

One person described it as "Mardi Gras without the beads."

Even before the first ballots were cast, election observers were predicting a massive turnout for this first-primary-in-the-nation state. Just five days earlier in Iowa, record numbers of people turned out to caucus, including an estimated 239,000 Democrats.

Asked how these trends would translate in New Hampshire, Secretary of State William Gardner projected that 500,000 voters would hit the polls, a boost of more than 100,000 over the previous record.

And indeed, by the time some voting stations opened across the state, people were already lined up and waiting to cast their ballots. At the Beech Street School in Manchester, 30 early risers waited for election officials at the door. By 3:30 pm, the voting station had seen more than 1,200 people pass through the doors, surpassing the total from the entire day of municipal voting that took place in October.

Even the campaigns were struck by the turnout. Two officials -- one Republican and one Democrat -- told the Huffington Post that what was happening in New Hampshire was not only unexpected but unprecedented. "This is the most crowded, most intense election I've ever seen," said Bob Lago, a 50-year-old native of Manchester. "There are lots of people, media, foreign press, French and Japanese. They are all trying to find the last undecided voters. My son was followed around for 30 minutes today on TV."

According to ABC News:

New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan told ABC News that turnout among primary voters today is "absolutely huge" -- and there are concerns about running out of ballots in towns like Portsmouth, Keene, Hudson and Pelham.


"Turnout is absolutely huge and towns are starting to get concerned that they may not have enough ballots," Scanlan said. "We are working on those issues. Everything else seems to be going smoothly."

Scanlan said that the Secretary of State's office is sending additional ballots to Portsmouth and Keene (traditionally Democratic strongholds), Hudson (Republican leaning with significant numbers of independents) and Pelham (large number of independents).

Much of the surge in turnout is coming from people who have never voted before. New Hampshire is one of a handful of states that allow people to register at their voting site on election day, and Jeff Michelsen, who is overseeing the Beech Street Station, said there had been an "ongoing onslaught of people coming in to do" just that.

The number of new turnouts was so large that a poll worker had to be taken aside to take an oath to become a deputy registrar -- the official who can legally register first-time voters. "People were tired of waiting in line," said Michelsen.

The influx of eager voters was also aided by weather that hovered for much of the day in the 50 degree range. Granite Staters already accustomed to the cold had few excuses for not getting to the nearest station.

Conventional wisdom held that these conditions would prove beneficial to the campaigns of Barack Obama and John McCain. Die hard voters, observers noted, were always going to show. The undecided, centrists, and young people were more unpredictable. "The hype and good weather will turn out even the soft independents," said Craig Shirley, executive director of Shirley Banister Public Relations.

Check out HuffPost's comprehensive on-the-ground New Hampshire coverage here.

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- research See Profile I'm a Fan of research permalink

MSM polls are landlines phone polls. Do YOU even answer your phone? Or like so many people, do you wait for the answering machine? Do you even own a land line, many people's only phone is a mobile phone, which the pollers cannot call legally. How many of you would agree to spend your time on the poll? What question did they ask: Who would you vote for if the election was held today? Who will you vote for in the primary? Who would you like to see as president? Who is most likely to win? When in the day to they call? What days do they call? What about unlisted numbers? Do they publish every study or just keep taking polls till they get the result they want?
Great link on problems with modern phone polling.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cell_phones_and_political_surv.php

With infinite money and power at stake, With the entire rethugs party willing to steal, kill and torture to get what they want, back room poll fixing payola would be Sunday school.

The big problem with polls is they are being used improperly to shut out MSM unpopular candidate, like Kucinich and ron Paul.

It is just insane the Iowa and NH basically get to choose the front runners.

Why do we let .2% of our population choose our president????!

Please Voters:

Vote for YOUR candidate in the PRIMARY.

You don't know, nobody knows who is "electable".

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:17 PM on 01/08/2008
- Scytherius See Profile I'm a Fan of Scytherius permalink

Hell . . . I'd vote for a goat, if the Dems ran one, just because I hate George Bush. Makes perfect sense.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:54 PM on 01/08/2008
- KennyFox See Profile I'm a Fan of KennyFox permalink

Now it appears as if HC has WON NH? What was all the crying about? Has the media, including the Huff Post, gotten this 100% WRONG again? Man, that would be embarrassing. Are we all just a bunch of high school kids going with the flow, cheering for the winning team no matter who it is? Id be worried with an HC win for two reasons. Why, H. Zinn has said, and I agree sadly, that the Dem pres candidate has already been selected by the party establishment and its donors and that is Bill's wife. That would be sad, cuz now voting starts to look more and more like a formal activity, a tradition, and not much more of substance beyond that. Secondly, for the past two years, right wing voters have been mostly silenced as they see that six years of the GOP with total control hasnt banned gays from getting married, abortions from happening, or brought Jesus back any sooner. Plus, a few GOP homos and evangelics caught in the act, with some crack to boot, is always a downer. Throwing them HC gives Limbaugh and company something to excite these guys with again. I can see it now, "Day One of America Under Siege, ladies and gentlemen. You're listening to the EIB..." blah, blah, blah. HC doesnt inspire. Andrew Sullivan's got it right on Obama. Check out his piece in the Nov or Oct Atlantic Monthly on this issue.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:53 PM on 01/08/2008
- MichaelO See Profile I'm a Fan of MichaelO permalink

Nicole Anonymous,

Bingo!!Couple your statement with the ability to vote on policy initiatives (do we want this war? SCHIP? Tax Cuts) will really hand power back to the people.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:44 PM on 01/08/2008
- nellie See Profile I'm a Fan of nellie permalink

Are we getting early results or exit poll results?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:44 PM on 01/08/2008
- Jimmyboyo See Profile I'm a Fan of Jimmyboyo permalink

Iowa exit polls had Hillary winning


LOL

The exit polls and your reporting on them won't even buy a cup of coffee

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:27 PM on 01/08/2008
- NicoleAnonymous See Profile I'm a Fan of NicoleAnonymous permalink

We need to change the entire election process. There should be a day where everyone in the country votes at the same time and less focus on these states.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:26 PM on 01/08/2008
- nellie See Profile I'm a Fan of nellie permalink

I've just heard on Nova M Radio, 1 percent of precincts reporting, Obama with 59%.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:26 PM on 01/08/2008
- Chandidevi See Profile I'm a Fan of Chandidevi permalink

Has anyone noticed things are brewing with Iran? This is what this White House does around election time - and I read a piece back in November that stated that the USA was planning to attack Iran sometime between February and March. Now, the media is reporting it as though it has just occurred. Oy Vey!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:18 PM on 01/08/2008
- starboymikey See Profile I'm a Fan of starboymikey permalink

Huge turnouts, both here and in Iowa, have to be very encouraging for Dems and dishartening for Republicans, since we know that historically large turnouts have almost always favored Democrats.

In November, the Dems better be on their toes, since we can probably count on Republican operatives using every trick in the book to suppress voter turnout.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:09 PM on 01/08/2008
- starboymikey See Profile I'm a Fan of starboymikey permalink

Imagine saying: "Mr. Obama, I'm voting for you because I hate George Bush."
_______________________________________

"Mr. Obama, I'm voting for you because I hate George Bush."

Boy, that felt good. I couldn't imagine why I was voting for him. Now I know. Thanks for supplying the words. They actually make perfect sense.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:05 PM on 01/08/2008
- DatelessNerd See Profile I'm a Fan of DatelessNerd permalink

MSNBC is reporting NH exit poll results that 93% of Democrats (and 51% of Republicans) are dissatisfied or angry with President Bush.

How do you think that bodes for Bush's enablers in the Democratic Party?

1. Hillary voted for the Iraq War.

2. Hillary voted for Kyl-Lieberman.

3. Hillary's husband campaigned for Joe Lieberman against Ned Lamont in Connecticut.

The Vichycrats are in deep shit. THAT'S the story.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:01 PM on 01/08/2008
- FatherWolf See Profile I'm a Fan of FatherWolf permalink

Voters are turning out in huge numbers to wash away the sins of the past 7 years.

I wonder if Bubble Boy realizes why so many people are voting for change.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:39 PM on 01/08/2008
- MizLiz See Profile I'm a Fan of MizLiz permalink

Ah, I love this. If we are seeing huge numbers turning out now for the primaries, just think of Election Day this November!! I picture a Democratic juggernaut, sweeping every Republican out with the rest of the dirty laundry. The Great Society shall rise again!

And I'm not kidding, either. I liked the old one just fine, and a Restoration is way overdue.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:12 PM on 01/08/2008
- Dem02020 See Profile I'm a Fan of Dem02020 permalink


You bet, the Republican (less Regulation, especially by the FCC) corporate press isn't about to scratch even the least bit past the surface, of the huge voter turnouts we are witnessing so early in a presidential election campaign.

They'd ask why, but seeing as they don't like the answer, they then don't bother asking.

In addition to not delving into why we are seeing such massive participation this early in the process, they like to skip over quickly the fact that the huge turnout is almost entirely on the Democratic side.

This was the case in Iowa, and seems already to be so in New Hampshire.

And in ignoring this fact, this corporate televised Republican (ease those FCC Regulations please) "media" will also fail to compare the Party vote tallies against one another, deferring to report the results exclusively in percentages within each Party (as in Iowa, we had Sen. Obama with 30-something percent of the vote from his Party, and Mr. Huckabee something similar in his own Party)...

Compare the raw numbers!

Because that's what counts, when it comes time to vote in the general election for President.


Because in Iowa, we had 26% of the total voter turnout vote for Sen. Obama, and about 20% registered support for Mr. Edwards, and another 20% for Sen. Clinton...

...and way back in a DISTANT FOURTH PLACE, was Mr. Huckabee gathering a mere 11% of the total turnout in Iowa, and Mr. Romney was in a DISTANT FIFTH PLACE with a minute 8% of Iowans preferring him last week...


That's the way to look at it you know.
That's how to measure how these people will do, in the presidential election next November.

Whatever the New Hampshire results are, adjust the raw numbers like I did for Iowa.


That's the story that accompanies these massive voter turnouts we are seeing.


    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:43 PM on 01/08/2008
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