New Hampshire Exit Polls
Read some highlights from the exit polling coming out of New Hampshire.
Here are the groups in which Obama enjoyed a significant margin over Clinton: men; young voters (18-24); voters making more than $50,000; voters with post-graduate education (a good indication of professionals); independents; first-time voters; voters without religious affiliation; men without children and single men; voters who said they were getting ahead financially; voters who thought the war in Iraq was the most important issue; voters who wanted change; and voters who wanted someone who could unite the country.
Here are Clinton's groups: women, particularly married women; voters over 40; voters making less than $50,000; voters without a college degree; union voters; Democrats; Catholics (an important constituency for the Democrats); people very worried about the economy; voters who thought the economy was most important; voters who valued experience; and voters who evaluated candidates on whether they "care about people like me."
There were anomalies. Voters who thought the war in Iraq was the most important issue favored Obama, 46 percent to 33 percent, while voters who favored our withdrawing all troops "as soon as possible" favored Clinton 40 percent to 36 percent. That may reflect Clinton's higher rating as a potential commander in chief, or it may just be a statistical anomaly. Clinton's support by 38 percent to 20 percent over Obama on the question of which one of these candidates "cares about people like me" is also interesting and suggests that Obama has a different kind of charisma than Bill Clinton or George W. Bush.
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From the New York Times' Caucus blog:
Here's what we can tell you so far from the exit poll conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool of television networks and The Associated Press.
In a reversal from Iowa, it seems that more women have voted for Mrs. Clinton than for Mr. Obama, while Mr. Obama is winning the men.
Mr. Obama is winning two-thirds of voters under 25; Mrs. Clinton is getting almost half of voters 65 and older.
As per Iowa, Mrs. Clinton is doing better with those who have a high school diploma or less, while Mr. Obama is doing better with those who have achieved a higher level of education.
On the Clinton/Obama contest:
Here's the deal with the close Clinton/Obama numbers: The college towns haven't reported yet. But the good news for Mrs. Clinton is that most precincts in Manchester have reported and she has a pretty substantial lead there. Manchester is the kind of blue-collar, establishment Democratic town that she should win; if Manchester was going the other way, that would signal a pretty big Obama win.
With nine of 12 precincts reporting in Manchester, Mrs. Clinton has won 45 percent of the vote compared with 31 percent for Mr. Obama.
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From Marc Ambinder:
Indies: 33% of the GOP electorate. They chose McCain 38% to 26%. But McCain also beat Romney among Republicans: 36% to 31%. McCain won late deciders handily. BTW: less than in five NH GOP voters indentified themselves as evangelicals. "Sharing ones values" was more important than "what a candidate believes," which was more important than "electability." Only 24% think Romney is qualified to be commander in chief, compared to 43% for McCain.................Obama won independents, getting nearly 50% of their votes. Independents comprised about 41% of the Democratic primary vote. But Hillary Clinton won among registered Democrats: 38% to 32%. Clinton wins women narrowly: 40% to 36%. STUNNER: 47% say Obama is most likely to beat Republicans, compared to 33% for Clinton. But Clinton is still viewed as qualified to be commander in chief: 37% say she's the most qualified, versus Obama at 27%.
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