Lost amid the celebration over Mitt Romney's win in the Michigan primary on Tuesday night was an equally noteworthy electoral result. Rudy Giuliani, the one-time frontrunner for the Republican nomination, placed sixth in the state. The three percent of the vote he received was just one point higher than that cast for "uncommitted." Even more remarkable, this was the second time in three primary elections that the former New York City mayor ended up behind five of his GOP competitors -- including Ron Paul.
Despite spending an estimated $40 million in his pursuit of the White House, Giuliani has nary a primary victory to show. His political prospects have dimmed sharply in the past few weeks even as the Republican election has remained unpredictably wide-open. Indeed, the fact that Giuliani still stands a chance of grabbing the nomination - if he could pull off a victory in the upcoming Florida election - is more a credit to the weakness of the GOP, observers say, than to Giuliani's particular strengths.
"His strategy, to be blunt, was a stupid strategy and sometimes stupid things work," said Larry Sabato a professor of political science at the University of Virginia. "If he wins Florida he will get a slingshot and everyone will call them brilliant, but in retrospect it was incredibly stupid of Giuliani not to pick one of the primaries. He could have easily have filled the slot that McCain filled in New Hampshire."
For months, Giuliani has insisted that he could secure the nomination by winning the larger, late voting primaries. And yet, despite putting all his eggs into the Florida basket, signs suggest that the New York Republican is mostly rudderless in the Sunshine State.
As of January 9, 2008, Giuliani had made 23 trips to the Sunshine state, according to the National Journal's Hotline. That total was almost three times more than Sen. John McCain, 16 more than Mike Huckabee, and seven more than Romney. Meanwhile, by some estimates, Giuliani spent more than $1 million in Florida-based advertising in 2007. Currently, the New York Daily News reports, he is writing $350,000-a-day worth of checks for his in-state ad campaign. Giuliani also has 50 campaign workers in Florida, although many have "accepted" the campaign's "suggestion" that they work without pay.
And what returns has Giuliani received for his investments? His standing in Florida has actually slipped. A Quinnipiac University poll released on Monday found the New Yorker in a virtual four-way tie for first place in the state's GOP primary, a far cry from his once-dominant status. A new Strategic Vision Poll, meanwhile, had Giuliani registering at 18 percent, two points behind Mike Huckabee and nine points behind McCain.
"The question is, has he lost so much ground by not being such a major player and can he make it up in Florida," said Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University. "Given his strategy and his inability to gain more support in the other states, they are now trying to make the best of a bad situation."
To be sure, not all news is bad for Giuliani. His extended work in the Sunshine State has resulted in a more effective fundraising operation. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, through the third quarter period, Giuliani had raised $3,424,038 from Florida sources. Romney, the next closest, had received $2,635,126. Moreover, the Giuliani campaign and some Republican officials insist that the former mayor is in perfect position to capitalize on his late-state primary strategy.
"Great news for Rudy," commented former White House press secretary Air Fleischer, when analyzing the three wins by three different Republican nominees in the first three primary states.
"Am I nervous at all? Do I look nervous? [I am] having a great time," Giuliani told Fox News on Monday. "This is a strategy we selected-it is the only strategy that can work for us and it's a good one...and given the nature of the race which is wide open, we think it is going to turn out to be a smart strategy."
But the Florida campaign trail has proved problematic. The state's ten media markets have created tough decisions for Giuliani as to where to spend his limited resources. The campaign has opted to focus on the Orlando and Tampa Bay areas, which are more politically moderate. The conservative northwest and north central panhandle have been mostly avoided. But in the Florida primary, Independents cannot vote. And, as one Democratic official in the state told the Huffington Post, the majority of the displaced New Yorkers who are showing up to Giuliani campaign events are registered Democrats who want to see their former mayor but can't vote for him the Republican primary.
Then there are the diversions. At a recent stop, Giuliani was joined by former congresswoman and controversial Bush-recount figure Katherine Harris. Harris is a pariah within the Florida Republican party and her appearance did not go over well. Giuliani's office was forced to insist that the event had not been coordinated and that Harris was not involved with the campaign.
Days before, a scheduled Giuliani event was delayed, moved, and delayed again after a bomb threat was called into the Melbourne airport. Around the same time, Giuliani showed up two hours late to an event at an ice-cream shop in Lakeland, prompting the 100 or so supporters to complain and, ultimately, leave before the former mayor's arrival. And throughout his time in the state, Giuliani has been heckled and harassed by anti-abortion protesters, sometimes carrying bullhorns.
Of course, Giuliani was never expected to win over the pro-life crowd. And he very well could squeak out a win in Florida without them. But for some observers, the heckling and other mishaps underscores just how far removed the former mayor is from his once frontrunner status.
"I think a lot of support to begin with was soft," Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida told the Huffington Post. "It looked like from the get-go that he was strongest. But people migrated to the candidate who they thought could win nationally. And as that perception of Giuliani has been chipped away, the support faded. It's like going to an ice cream shop with 20 flavors. Strawberry may be your favorite, but when you start trying the other ones it might not be the flavor you want any more."