Michigan Results Reveal Some Dangerous Trends For Clinton

The Michigan Democratic primary was on the surface a non-event. The national party has ruled the state's delegation will not be seated. Of the major candidates, only Hillary Clinton was on the ballot, pitted against "uncommitted" in a seemingly meaningless race (she won by 15 percent).

Yet the exit poll results from this strange contest reveal some troubling trends for the New York Senator.

Among men, for example, the battle was neck and neck. Clinton got 47 percent and the anonymous/non-existent opposition got 43 percent. (Clinton did substantially better among women, winning 58-37.)

The opposition was not, however, altogether ethereal. For the most part, voting "uncommitted" was a substitute for casting a ballot for Barack Obama, or for some voters, John Edwards.

Among black voters, Clinton was crushed by "uncommitted," 26-70. If that kind of margin among African Americans continues into future primaries, she faces major problems in the heavily black January 26 South Carolina primary and in the states with large black populations going to the polls on February 5 -- so-called Tsunami Tuesday. Clinton carried whites in Michigan by a 61-30.

Clinton ran poorly among young voters of all races, losing those under the age of 30 by 39-48 percent; splitting voters from 30 to 44 by 46-48 percent; solidly carrying the 45 to 56 age group by 54-34 percent; and winning voters 60 and older by a landslide 67-31 percent.

Clinton continued to do well among the least well-educated voters and those with lower incomes. She carried voters without college degrees by 55-37, but tied among those with college degrees, 46-45. Clinton also won voters making $50,000 or less by 60-34, but tied among those making more, 46-45.

In a warning signal if she becomes the Democratic nominee, Clinton did much better among committed Democrats, winning them 57-37, than among independents, losing them 32-51.

Looking toward the future, the Michigan exit poll demonstrates the viability of the Clinton campaign strategy of winning solid majorities in states that, unlike Michigan and South Carolina, do not allow participation of either Republicans or independents in their "closed" primaries, like the February 5 contests in New York, Connecticut, Colorado and Arizona. Many very large February 5 states, however, including California, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia, have open primaries that will give Obama a chance to pull in independent voters.

(To see exit poll data for the Republican race, click here.)

Comments

[NotaBeliever]

HuffPo is casting Senator Clinton in dark shadows. BOO! Dangerous trends, indeed. The heck with it all. I'm going to vote my own mind in my state's primary and the heck with the leader board. Yes, I say the heck with the polls and the leader board and the comments and the HuffPo line.

[jackpinesavage]

I think that we can assume that Sen. Clinton's most dedicated supporters went out and voted. I think that we can also assume that it takes a great deal of dedication, or a heavy feeling of civic responsibility, to go out and vote in an election that basically means nothing.

40% of people (plus the voters for Kucinich, Dodd, and Gravel) went out of their way to vote against Sen. Clinton. It does not matter if they would have liked to vote for Edwards or Obama, they couldn't. They could only vote against Clinton. And they did.

All that exit polling crap about how she would have beaten Obama anyhow is just that, crap. They could only ask those people who went to the polls...not the people who were so pissed off that they stayed home.

A strong disgust has started to grow in Michigan from this fiasco, and it is directed at the Democratic Party. Come November, there are 17 electoral votes on the line here. Its funny and pointless now, but it won't be if this splendid peninsula turns red for the general election...

[moonjumper]

Screw you Uncommitted! Take your egg-head downer bullshit back to where you came from...back to...back to...Well, SCREW YOU Uncommitted!

Hey Uncommitted, Hillary took Michigan and shoved it up your a$$!!! Up your a$$ I say! You do have an a$$, don't you?

Uncommitted ran such a nasty, nasty campaign down the home stretch; it serves him right that he lost. Go Hillary!

[hugs4u]

If Hillary wins the nomination, the democrats end up being the losers.

[Gumby123]

Is it me or is there alot of whining going on at Huffpo?

[NewMexicoFan]

OK, so tell me how much an anaylsis of an election is worth, when no campaiging was done in the State. It is like we just cannot wait to analyze. But we do that with everything today. When candidates have done no campaigning in the state, talking about the results is just filling up newsprint. When Bill Clinton got the Democratic Nomination, he polled third. He won the race, after he got out and campaigned. The important issue here, should the Michigan ruling on delegates be challenged, what does that mean for the election. That might be a more meaningful use of newsprint.

[AZDemocrat500]

Will the Obama Post be objective for at least one article. If Obama' surrogates were pressing blacks to vote heavily against Clinton and she still won by 15 points, what does that say about Obama and whites. Please stop these biased articles.

[buddyd]

Great Job Hillary!!!I knew the media would look for the neg in this. God can only hope that either one of them can get 58% of the vote in the general.Be strong Hill in spite of the haters.My only request is for the Dems not be driven to slamming each other because of what the media says. We have great prospects who can beat any republican in the race. It was a good debate last nite in spite of the moderator..Dems in "08"

[Nic]

ANOTHER loser listening and believing in "polls"....we've all seen how wrong ther can be.

[esl]

Anyone who would use the Michigan primary to comment on the Democrats is a little desperate, don't you think? This is ridiculous.

[mexboy]

I suggest Huffopost take a look at Dailykos and learn how a classy progressive site does things. The nastiness in here is vomit inducing..
.
AM I REALLY IN A PROGRESSIVE SITE?
IS THIS REALLY A DEMOCRAT LEANING SITE OR DID FOX BUY HUFFO OUT AND I JUST DIDN'T READ THE MEMO?

[BadChristian]

The Dems lost the Libs for a good reason... They didn't stand up for them (instead they have as much fun mocking them and distancing themselves from them as Republicans do).
Now they're losing urban centers, for a very good reason (they chose suburbia's money over urbania's people).

Blueberry Fruitloops in strawberry milk.

But no one will make fun of them for being liberal or embracing that ugly "Urban culture" we've been at war with, and was trying to kill Santa Clause.

[TLV]

The reason Hillary Clinton's name still appeared on the ballot was because she did not voluntarily withdraw her name as the other candidates did in protest of the early primary. Perhaps she really is the better choice because she does not go along to get along.

[vippy]

Why anyone would vote for any GOPer is beyond me. Look what they have done to this country the last 7 years. Hillary won't be much better
since Bill already said that Bush1 will assist her when in the WH. We don't need that.
We need change and that is Kucinich who gets
ignored by the media and people who have no clue but complain. We need single payer healthcare, which the top 3 don't offer. We don't need the corporations to dictate our policies. With the top candidates we will get more of what we already have.

[Purple Girl]

THE MI PRIMARY WAS RIGGED.
CLINTON WAS NOT THE ONLY DEM ONTHE BALLOT- REPORT WITH A BIT OF ACCURACY PLEASE!!!
I have heard this statement repeatedly- In FACT, both Kucincih and Gravel were on our ballot!!!

here's the Fraud and how it worked

The Ballots (Dem & Repub) were set up in alphebetical order (as seen by samples on clickondetroit.com)
EXCEPT -AT LEAST- IN MAY DISTRICT. Here's how my scantron ballot read

Kucinich
clinton
dodd
Gravel
Uncommitted

Wonder how many Kucinich votes were read as Clinton votes around the state. butterfly ballots anyone. It has become apparent our elections are being manipulated and the fraud is being perpetuated by the media!!!
Granted Kucincih would not have won the state- but I wonder if Clinton would have won th estates without this inconsistency in the ballots and the programming of th escantrons to read votes in alphebetical order!!!!

MI DEMAND A HAND RECOUNT- WE HAVE BEEN HAD!!!