Michigan Results Reveal Some Dangerous Trends For Clinton

The Michigan Democratic primary was on the surface a non-event. The national party has ruled the state's delegation will not be seated. Of the major candidates, only Hillary Clinton was on the ballot, pitted against "uncommitted" in a seemingly meaningless race (she won by 15 percent).

Yet the exit poll results from this strange contest reveal some troubling trends for the New York Senator.

Among men, for example, the battle was neck and neck. Clinton got 47 percent and the anonymous/non-existent opposition got 43 percent. (Clinton did substantially better among women, winning 58-37.)

The opposition was not, however, altogether ethereal. For the most part, voting "uncommitted" was a substitute for casting a ballot for Barack Obama, or for some voters, John Edwards.

Among black voters, Clinton was crushed by "uncommitted," 26-70. If that kind of margin among African Americans continues into future primaries, she faces major problems in the heavily black January 26 South Carolina primary and in the states with large black populations going to the polls on February 5 -- so-called Tsunami Tuesday. Clinton carried whites in Michigan by a 61-30.

Clinton ran poorly among young voters of all races, losing those under the age of 30 by 39-48 percent; splitting voters from 30 to 44 by 46-48 percent; solidly carrying the 45 to 56 age group by 54-34 percent; and winning voters 60 and older by a landslide 67-31 percent.

Clinton continued to do well among the least well-educated voters and those with lower incomes. She carried voters without college degrees by 55-37, but tied among those with college degrees, 46-45. Clinton also won voters making $50,000 or less by 60-34, but tied among those making more, 46-45.

In a warning signal if she becomes the Democratic nominee, Clinton did much better among committed Democrats, winning them 57-37, than among independents, losing them 32-51.

Looking toward the future, the Michigan exit poll demonstrates the viability of the Clinton campaign strategy of winning solid majorities in states that, unlike Michigan and South Carolina, do not allow participation of either Republicans or independents in their "closed" primaries, like the February 5 contests in New York, Connecticut, Colorado and Arizona. Many very large February 5 states, however, including California, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia, have open primaries that will give Obama a chance to pull in independent voters.

(To see exit poll data for the Republican race, click here.)

Comments

[Sacsile]

Hillary did terrible. She was the ONLY one on the ballot and 40% went uncommitted....LOL. 4% went to Kucinich ...lol

[MRb1000]

Ha ha ha Hillary cannot win against a the unknown comic. She will lose because she is not truthful.

[Boadicea]

The real story of the Michigan primary is that Edwards and Obama respected the Democratic Party ruling on Michigan, and Hillary refused, instead leaving herself on the ballot and hoping that a win with no competition could still be spun positively.

It's illustrative of how Hillary deals with the world - whatever works for Hillary is what HIllary will do. Screw the rest of the party.

[altohone]

I think it's pretty funny Hillary lost in certain categories.

The inevitable front-runner of the establishment sure shines!

The bitterness of Hillary supporters commenting here... dare I say jealous that HuffPo was created by someone less than enamored by the establishment candidate... is also a bit over the top.

[factanonverba]

On the Democratic side it is pointless to draw any serious conclusions because most of the voters stayed home. Unless you are polling them, it is rather inconclusive.

On the Republican, Mittens got another gold. Congrats but don't bite down on it too hard, like the state of Michigan itself, it is probably rusted through.

It is again hard to draw much from the results because the turnout was so low. I do find it interesting that Ron Paul beat Thompson and Guiliani combined. Now Paul's supporters are zealots so they will go out and vote no matter the weather but if you're Rudy Guiliani this can not be good news. Michigan is likely to go Democratic in November no matter what but how does the GOP no contest a state like a Michigan? Where is the GOP going to draw the line in the sand? Utah? Idaho? At some point if you want to stand a chance of winning in November you have to do well in an old-line Industrial State, of course, the fact that Michigan is in the straits it is in is partly due to FTAs and the wholesale capitulation to a corporatist agenda that puts profits before people, that puts the welfare of a small global elite before the nation.

[DietrichMoody]

Can Hillary win the General Election by just winning Blue State Democrats with a few Independents and Republicans.on her side?? Uh, nope. No comeback is going to put Hillary back together again, ala after the base damage they NEED to inflict in order to win the nomination - ala Bill Clinton. Why? because voters in November are going to have a male choice on the Republican side that hasn't offended them and that they feel safe in a time of war, economic downturn and non-isolationism
n Iowa AND New Hampshire, Obama, brought in to the Democratic party, the young, Republicans, Men and Independents and a voting block and they don't like to talk about race and gender and SEE that Hillary Clinton and her ilk are the Catalyst for this. Dick Morris race baiting has helped Hillary Clinton, but in a post 9/11 America, but is this disturbing a death knell for America during a time of monumental world change. A dangerous trend if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination.

[stavros]

What a waste of space this post is by a "reputed" writer. Nice try Tom.

[Impeachthechimp]

Jesus Christ now you spin this as a problem for Hillary. This place should be named HillaryHaters.com. Imagine what you would say if she got less than 50%! I'm calling BS.

[in4success]

everytime i read a post by a pro-hillary-ite it becomes more painfully clear that they were the same people holding up BUSH/CHENEY signs in 2000 and 2004 ----------- ?

[OhPlease2007]

You mean, like, she is phony and has an almost identical senatorial voting record with Obama???

Who needs a poll to tell us what we already know?!

Edwards/Dodd '08!

[Advocate123]

Allow me to provide some insight as a member of the Right.

You can put the Candidates into several categories of Conservatives.

Social: Huckabee

Foreign Policy: Rudy, McCain

Fiscal: Romney, Ron Paul

Fred Thompson falls in all three. But Conservatives are just waiting to see if he wins in South Carolina. If he does, watch him win the nomination and everyone will look surprised.

[kfdan]

The closed primaries show what the party wants to show and that is all. Clinton is not going to gain much support among Americans who understand the real need for change in Washington politics! If the Democratic party leadership doesn't understand the real needs of the country, they will lose the upcoming Presidential election to someone like McCain!
Bad news for America!

[rblackbird]

If any reliable conclusion can be drawn from this meaningless vote, it would be that Hillary showed well. Mr. Edsall, so caught up in his anti-Hillary cant, overlooks the principal significance of the vote. It is that Hillary out-polled "uncommitted," which Edsall says "was a substitute for casting a ballot for Barack Obama, or for some voters, John Edwards." None of the three candidates out-polled the other two combined in Iowa or New Hampshire. Here, Edsall inadvertently reveals that Hillary did so in Michigan. This sounds to me like things are looking up for her.

[in4success]

And what kind of wingnuts (and our own sainted friends, of course) came out today to keep Mitt going? Well, the exit polls say it was a bunch of white (96%) guys (56%) who think Bush is doing a great job (53%) and Iraq is awesome (62%).

Message to the rest of America's Republicans: Good luck living with this jerkass for the next few weeks, brought to you by the people who think nothing's wrong.

[in4success]

from DAILY KOS:

Michigan Results Thread #3: Willard lives to pander another day
by brownsox
Tue Jan 15, 2008 at 10:05:34 PM PST
99% of precincts reporting.

Republicans

Romney 39 336801
McCain 30 256600
Huckabee 16 139268
Paul 6 54233
Thompson 4 31998
Giuliani 3 24654
Uncommitted 2 17942



Democrats

Clinton 55 327971
Uncommitted 40 236598
Kucinich 4 21688
Dodd 1 3852
Gravel 0 2363




Despite our screwy primary in Michigan, Dennis Kucinich nearly received as many votes as Rudy Giuliani, and Hillary Clinton nearly received as many votes as Mitt Romney (who won handily). Turnout was far greater on the GOP side, and we still look pretty good.

Oh, and Romney won. Which hopefully means chaos for our Grand Old Friends.

MSNBC on the Republicans:

"We have never seen a political party find itself unable to find a nominee. That's what's going on here. They don't have a nominee. It's a dramatic development. None of the above is winning. It's, it's unbelievable."

Indeed.