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Super Tuesday Won't Decide Nominations

STEPHEN OHLEMACHER | January 24, 2008 12:53 PM EST | AP

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WASHINGTON — Don't look to crown any presidential nominees on Super Tuesday.

The race for delegates is so close in both parties that it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5, according to an Associated Press analysis of the states in play that day.

"A lot of people were predicting that this presidential election on both sides was going to be this massive sprint that ended on Feb. 5," said Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with any candidate. Now it's looking as if the primaries after Super Tuesday _ including such big, delegate-rich states as Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania _ could grow in importance.

"Maybe some states were better off waiting," said Backus.

That doesn't mean Super Tuesday won't be super after all. Voters in more than 20 states will go to the polls on the biggest day of the primary campaign, and thousands of delegates will be at stake.

But it's possible Feb. 5 might not even produce clear front-runners.

Here's why:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer. She has 236, including separately chosen party and elected officials known as superdelegates, giving her a 100-delegate lead over Sen. Barack Obama.

There will be nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to put a candidate well on his or her way to the 2,025 needed to secure the nomination. But even if somehow either Clinton or Obama won every one of those delegates, it wouldn't be enough. And with two strong candidates, the delegates could be divided fairly evenly because the Democrats award their delegates proportionally _ not winner-take- all.

The biggest prizes among the Democratic states are California (370 delegates), New York (232) and Illinois (153). All three states award Democratic delegates proportionally, with most delegates awarded according to the popular vote in individual congressional districts, and the rest based on the statewide vote.

The wild card for the Democrats involves the superdelegates, nearly 800 elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee. They are free to support any candidate they choose at the national convention, regardless of the outcome of the primaries.

The AP has interviewed more than 90 percent of the superdelegates who have been identified by the party, and most have yet to endorse a candidate. Many say they will not make endorsements until after their states vote.

The Republicans have a better chance to produce a clear front-runner because several states, including New York, New Jersey, Missouri and Arizona, award all their GOP delegates to the candidate who wins the popular statewide vote. But a Republican candidate would have to attract support across the country to build a formidable lead.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads the race for delegates to the Republican National Convention with 59. He is followed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 40 and Arizona Sen. John McCain with 36.

There will be more than 1,000 Republican delegates at stake on Feb. 5, enough to give a candidate a substantial boost toward the 1,191 needed to win the nomination _ but only if one man emerges victorious in numerous states.

"I think you could have two or three viable (GOP) candidates" following Super Tuesday, said Ohio Republican Chairman Robert Bennett.

"Somebody's going to have some big wins, but you're going to go into March 4, and you're not going to have an apparent (GOP) nominee," Bennett said.

Ohio is waiting in the wings with its 85 Republican delegates on March 4, a date it shares with Texas, which will award 137 GOP delegates.

Other big states with later contests include Maryland and Virginia on Feb. 12, Wisconsin on Feb. 19 and Pennsylvania on April 22.

Four years ago, Sen. John Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination on March 2 _ the earliest date in modern times _ with a string of Super Tuesday primary victories. In 2000, George W. Bush and Al Gore both clinched their parties' nominations on March 14, each sweeping a string of Southern primaries that day.

This year, Super Tuesday has grown to include more than 20 states, and it was moved up to Feb. 5 as states leapfrogged each other in an attempt to increase their influence in picking the nominees.

With so many states voting so early, the stage was set for a lengthy general election campaign after nominees were settled early in the year.

Some think that is still a good bet, especially if candidates who don't fare well on Feb. 5 decide to drop out.

"It may take a while for Obama or Clinton to get 50 percent plus one of the delegates. But if it does narrow to a two-person race, then the Democratic nomination will be determined relatively soon," said David Rohde, a political science professor at Duke University.

Rohde said it is possible for the nomination contests to drag all the way to the conventions this summer. But he added, "It is also possible for aliens from Mars to land tomorrow and interfere with the election."

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- vbond I'm a Fan of vbond 14 fans permalink

THE DREAM:
An Open Letter to The American People, from Al Gore:

I am today announcing my candidacy for the Vice Presidency of The United States of America.
I realize that this announcement may seem to some to be a case of diminished hopes and expectations.
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
Since 2000, the battle that I have waged for years against ignorance and complacency about the worsening condition of our planet has advanced beyond my wildest dreams.
The recognition that I have personally received in that time is a reflection not so much of my personal efforts as it is an indication of the broad recognition that climate change is the over-arching social and political issue of our time.
The war in Iraq will end.
The present economic downturn will end.
And we as a nation and as a civilization will survive both.
But more of us than ever now realize that if we do not soon solve the problem of climate change, we may not survive as either a nation or a civilization.
I am deeply appreciative and humbled by the fact that the majority of people in this country had the confidence to vote for me as their President, and I believe that I am at least as qualified as I was eight years ago to fill that office.
But times have changed, and I believe that I have the unique opportunity to make a critical contribution to our national survival: as Vice President.
Why?
Two fundamental reasons.
First, because, in that office, I would have the opportunity to focus the power and resources of our nation on our climate and environmental crises.
Second, because I may have the opportunity to work with a man whom I trust to support the necessary transformation of our government and our society.
That man is Barack Obama.
He alone among our presidential candidates has the vision, the tools, and the judgement to empower the changes that we must all make.
I would proudly serve the American people as his - and your - Vice President.
Albert A. Gore

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:39 AM on 01/25/2008
- nomobull I'm a Fan of nomobull 44 fans permalink
photo

you mean the shrinking lead. think i might just give edwards aecond look.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:03 AM on 01/25/2008
- nihilon x I'm a Fan of nihilon x 39 fans permalink

Simple question:

Why won't Hillary release her records to the public?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:49 PM on 01/24/2008
- Aristedes I'm a Fan of Aristedes 2 fans permalink

One thing that pisses me off is that KERRY couldn't get it togeter to endorse his own Vice President (and they won)! Kerry has really lost it. he should recant on Obama. Period.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:57 PM on 01/24/2008
- MRb1000 I'm a Fan of MRb1000 10 fans permalink

Bill Clinton who killed Vince Foster? This was Hillary's Lover.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:05 PM on 01/24/2008

I hope the nomination fight lasts all the way until the conventions. The chaos has gotten more people to pay attention to the primaries than they normally would have.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:57 PM on 01/24/2008

I can tell you one thing -- I'm fed up with Clintonian politics. If they somehow make the national election, I am staying home.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:44 PM on 01/24/2008

I hate how the MSM is hyping Super Tuesday so much. Since dems divide delegates it will be a close race almost certainly. It won't be "all over" after ST, just as it wasn't all over after Iowa.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:11 PM on 01/24/2008

We are told that this is a historic election, and it is - but let's not get carried away. What about the previous "historic" event with Pelosi. We were told how tough she would be, etc. But all I have seen so far is a facelift and Armani suits. From the start the MSM have been pushing the H&B fight and marginalizing everyone else. But what happens if one of the historic candidates wins and is a disappointment? It will be difficult to be worse than what we have now, but everyone knows that the bar is much higher for the current contenders.Now there is nothing but squabbling while another election goes down the tubes. A senator in my state was jumping on the Obama bandwaggon before he had practically opened his mouth. What chance does that give to anyone who actually wants to hear what the candidates have to say? The convention isn't going to collapse if the nominee isn't known before then.
As usual the stupid little things have taken up all the space and air. I don't care if a candidate laughs like the wicked witch or if someone spends a lot on a haircut. These are such trivialities and are constantly repeated by people who think (correctly, it seems) that the stupid voters really are bunch of mindless sheep. We are being manipulated again.
In full disclosure I will say that I am leaning to J Edwards, because I think he has been talking about the most important things and is not historic or part of a dynasty. I am lucky enough to have no financial problems, but I do care about other folk and am appalled by what is happening with our wounded soldiers, their families, people who cannot afford healthcare, are being laid off, losing their houses, etc. Don't lets screw up this election. Calling names and putting down the candidates and trashing someone you aren't going to vote for isn't going to help anyone (except the Republicans). It maybe more important to vote in some senators who have some intestinal fortitude!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:37 PM on 01/24/2008

As a relative newcomer to Huffington Post, I hate to become a broken record on this particular issue, but I can't help myself: Enough, please, with describing the Democratic contest as just Clinton-Obama. After Feb. 5, perhaps that will be the case. But right now? Edwards is still in the thick of it, winning support with his debate performances, and offering a smart, bold, progressive agenda for transformational change, as he puts it.

Sure, his numbers out of the wholly undemocratic Nevada caucus, with its viability/­threshhold rules, etc., were disappointing. But that's one state out of 50, with 40+ to go, folks.

Edwards is not Mike Gravel, who may not have even had a campaign office outside his living room. Edwards is not Dennis Kucinich, bless his Lilliputian heart (and ears). No, Edwards is running a first-class, national campaign, and this media obsession with writing him off, or setting arbitrary expectations ("Candidate X MUST win this state! Candidate Y must finish in the top three or he'll have to drop out!" -- according to whom?), or focusing on the increasingly ridiculous Clinton-Obama "feud" is not good journalism. Enough already.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:30 PM on 01/24/2008
- JackWOrf I'm a Fan of JackWOrf 10 fans permalink

Hillary's "slumlord" remark was actually on a par with Bush's implication that John McCain was a collaborator in Vietnam (during the 2000 election).

Obama's big selling point was that he was this altruistic little angel who turned down high paying jobs after graduating from Harvard Law, just so that he could help His Impoverished and Exploited People on the South Side of Chicago.

And voila. The Bitch hit him with a left hook. It turns out that Obama was really a sleezy, clever, crafty, Harvard lawyer working for a Slum Lord! Ouch! More like a knife thru the heart! One statement from The Bitch and it casts doubt upon his entire persona.

Poor Obama. Hillary should apologize. Why not? It doesn't matter. The damage is done. The Angel who has been sent to us to save the world is actually a WOLF in disguise!!! Sent to us by the Slum Lords to enslave and oppress us further, while lining Obama's pockets!

Brilliant.

But Obama deserved it. He was trying to bad-mouth the Clinton years by extolling Reagan. You know he WAS, despite his protestations of innocence.

And, oh yes, he doesn't know who he's running against. HA. If he doesn't know who he is running against then he is WAY too dumb to be running.

I am annoyed with Obama since he will once again blow the Democratic Party's chance for the White House. Not surprising that LOSER Kerry supports him.

Obama needs to get out of the way and let Billary get the nomination. Billary can win the Presidency, and America desperately needs a good Democratic president.

The best ticket is Clinton/Obama, which is also the best for Obama. He has ZERO chance of winning the election in 2008. But if he served an 8-year apprenticeship as VP, he could WALK into the White House in 2016.


Clinton demonstrated HUGE SUCCESS in dealing with the economy. The rest of these TURKEYS, including Obama, will lead us into another Great Depression.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:28 PM on 01/24/2008
- JackWOrf I'm a Fan of JackWOrf 10 fans permalink

Personally, I LIKE the new Hillary. She is showing that she is worthy of defending the country. Look at her weaponry: First, she uses smiles and charm. If that doesn't work, she uses tears. If that doesn't work, out come the razor-sharp claws.

And as the "slumlord" remark illustrates, her claws are razor sharp.

And if all that doesn't work, she calls in Big Bill.

Really, it's quite impressive. She is The Bitch. Long live The Bitch.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:09 PM on 01/24/2008
- JackWOrf I'm a Fan of JackWOrf 10 fans permalink

If the delegate count is close, there is going to be ENORMOUS PRESSURE to count Florida and Michigan. Hillary is currently WAY AHEAD in Florida, which as the 4th most populous state, SHOULD be getting a HUGE number of delegates. She additionally won MICHIGAN.

Personally, I seriously suspect CORRUPTION on the part of pro-Obama forces in the DNC in this ABSURD and UNFAIR action of stripping Florida and Michigan of delegates.

These are both MAJOR swing states in the general election that are MANY TIMES more important than the vastly over-represented Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. And they appear to be solidly CLINTON's.

I think that if Obama were to take the nomination, only by IGNORING Florida and Michigan, the DNC might have a REVOLUTION on its hands.

As a Florida Democrat, I am personally FURIOUS with the DNC for the ABSURD disenfranchisement of my state. And I find it REPREHENSIBLE that the Democratic Party should perpetrate DISENFRANCHISEMENT of its own members.

It is also IDIOTIC. Because the Democratic candidates have not spent time in Florida, they are WAY out of touch with Florida's issues. Just as they were WAY out of touch with Michigan's issues.

Florida has enormously important issues that are unique to Florida, and neither Hillary nor Obama have addressed them.

So far, the DNC strategy has been MORONIC in the extreme. They spent 6 months talking to every farmer in Iowa and South Carolina while they have virtually ignored the CRITICAL swing states of Florida and Michigan.

I can not get over my SHOCK at the incredible STUPIDITY of the DNC in following this policy.

If there is tie in the nomination, ignoring Florida and Michigan, you will have another 2000 election, where Florida is critical and disenfranchised. But this issue could totally disrupt the election and make it impossible to select a valid candidate.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:02 PM on 01/24/2008

This race is summarized by my favorite quote from a very intelligent man...

"Yesterday is yesterday. If we try to recapture it, we will only lose tomorrow." -Bill Clinton

Obama will turn the page from the politics of cynicism and challenge us to find our common interests for the greater good.

VIEW "TOMORROW FOR OBAMA" AT YOUTUBE:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaZiH-gDVVk

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:46 PM on 01/24/2008
- AlP I'm a Fan of AlP 4 fans permalink

This entire story is to shield Obama from when he loses BIG TIME on Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday WILL decide the nominee. If Obama wins SC, he'll only have two wins, next to Hillary's dozen. Get over it. Obama is DOA!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:41 PM on 01/24/2008
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