Florida Results Show Late Momentum For Obama

Sen. Hillary Clinton parachuted into Florida on Tuesday to celebrate a double-digit victory in the state's uncontested presidential primary.

The election was mostly meaningless -- Florida's delegates have been stripped and none of the Democratic candidates campaigned there -- but Clinton's "beauty contest" victory rally was covered by all the cable news networks, and she's sure to receive more positive press heading into the all-important February 5 super-primary.

Yet a closer look at the exit surveys shows some notably positive trends for Clinton's chief rival, Sen. Barack Obama.

Despite losing the state overall by 17 points, Obama actually won more support than Clinton from voters who made up their minds in the last three days (46 percent to 38 percent), in the last week (39-31) and in the last month (47-40).

Clinton did defeat Obama among Floridians who decided on a candidate on the day of the primary. But overwhelmingly, Clinton's support came from those who made up their minds over a month ago (63 percent to 27 percent), and from early voters who used absentee ballots (50-31). Floridians began receiving absentee ballots in late December.

According to the exit polls, those early deciders and early voters made up fully 59 percent of Florida's Democratic electorate.

The results seem to indicate that Obama picked up significant momentum in Florida following his victories in Iowa and South Carolina, as well as his high-profile endorsements (49 percent of Florida voters said Ted Kennedy's support was important to their decision).

"But any momentum seemed to run out today," Clinton strategist Mark Penn countered in a memo emailed to reporters Tuesday evening. "[A]mong those who decided on Election Day, a plurality of those chose Hillary."

True, indeed. But critically -- and perhaps as an indicator of close elections to come -- Clinton's margin of victory among Election Day deciders was the narrowest of all: 34 percent to 30 percent.

Comments

[Puzzle]

10:52 PM on 01/30/2008

This just shows the Audacity of Hillary. She did not abide by her DNC agreement.Her opponents did. She believes that she does not have to abide by the same rules as everyone else. This is elitism and arrogance. She does not have the character to be President.

[ObamaEnsuresDefeat]

06:37 PM on 01/30/2008

"Florida Results Show Late Momentum For Obama"


That is a bunch of BS, Hussein got his a** kicked & it is only the begining.

[BeyondKen]

03:21 PM on 01/30/2008

Do not forget that Obama has never won an election that his opponent didn't drop out of.

He was elected to the U.S. Senate after his opponent Jack Ryan was forced out because of unproven rumors of a sex scandal.

He was elected an Illinois State Senator after paying lawyers to force all other opponents off the ballot.

According to David Jackson in the Chicago Tribune:

“A close examination of Obama's first campaign clouds the image he has cultivated throughout his political career: The man now running for president on a message of giving a voice to the voiceless first entered public office not by leveling the playing field, but by clearing it. His overwhelming legal onslaught signaled his impatience to gain office, even if that meant elbowing aside an elder stateswoman like Palmer.”

[plbcm]

03:08 PM on 01/30/2008

This entire article is designed to minimize any positive effect the HRC might get. Terms like: "parachuted", "meaningless", "positive trend for Obama", "won more the last three days while her last day margin was slight", etc., etc., and ect. Huffington Post has such an anti-Clinton drumbeat I am henceforth dubbing Huffpo as Obama Central. You make no pretense at objectivity. 850K votes. That aint marshmallows. Just once, can't we have one positive article about HRC.

In order to save face for the dumbest political decision of the century, the democratic activists in Florida expect the Florida and Michigan delegations to be seated after the first day. Obama may have flumoxed the Clinton camp by crying race in South Carolina everytime he felt offended, while the fawning media picked his whinning and decided in their collective wisdom it was Bill doing all the race baiting. Revenge, however, may be sweet. HRC will have a huge boost when they seat the two delegations. Obama took his name off the Michigan ballot and was always far behind in Florida. He did sneak in some national ads, but they were ineffective. HRC advocated for the dispossessed delegates and probably has won their eternal support. If Obama fights their seating, he loses in the general election. How dumb is that? How smart was the HRC camp to stay connected to the two delegations?

[Lostskeleton]

02:55 PM on 01/30/2008

I remember when the Redskins beat the Steelers in a pre-season game this year. I said, "hey, they are going all the way...look at that pre-season win." Yeah, sort of like that Florida win last night huh?

[JaegerBaeger]

01:27 PM on 01/30/2008

As an Independent it really pains me how lots of the folks here can be so "mean". Calling the candidates and each other names, it is plain lame. It's sad, you aren't being clever.

It is very polarizing and depressing.
Get a clue, it is politics and we will get the POTUS we deserve. (like before)

[CaptainVideo]

01:19 PM on 01/30/2008

When the Clintons are losing a race, their approach is to try to change the rules in their favor. No wonder so many people distrust Hillary. Perhaps she should be called "tricky Hilly."

[detriangulation]

12:43 PM on 01/30/2008

Pitney's observations concerning a tightening of the race among late-deciding voters are perfectly objective; it's analysis of voting patterns--not spin. Only Clinton apologists could possibly have their thinking so muddied as to spin this article by lamely attempting to lable it as spin! It is FACT that the race narrowed substantially in recent weeks towards Obama's favor. It's also fact that Clinton still won handsomely in the end, but the TREND towards Obama is reflected in the breakdown of vote TIMING. The curious exception is among those who decided at the last minute, who marginally favored Clinton.

The Clinton campaign, seeing that the skewed, anachronistic contest would end in her favor, began framing it in terms of giving Floridians their fair say (despite the pledge all the candidates signed not to campaign there or legitimize the outcome, a pleadge that she semi-clandestinely BROKE). But I think it was a tactical mistake on the part of the Obama campaign to state that FL was meaningless, no matter how true, because it threw Billary spinners a bone to intimate that Obama favors disenfranchisement (lol), which may explain Clinton's counter-surge (garnering her a plurality) among voters who decided on Election Day. A counter-surge that runs against the momentum exit polls showed Obama to have among voters deciding in the past month.

More generally, the demographics in Florida work against Obama and reveal his relative weakness among older/senior voters, who are vastly overrepresented in FL. So are retirees from Clinton's home state (although that didn't seem to help Giuliani---but I think it's fair to assume the the vast majority of New York transplants are Democrats, and thus helped Clinton). This shows Obama has more work to do with senior citizen and Latino outreach, but behind the numbers, and considering the demographics, the results are encouraging for him, esp. when you consider that he honored his pledge not to campaign there while Hillary broke hers.

[kburlz]

12:41 PM on 01/30/2008

Congradulations Billary. You won among people who voted before Iowa in a state where nobody campaigned and name recognition was the only qualification. You all know it's all about momentum, and I can tell you are nervous.

[hepwa]

12:14 PM on 01/30/2008

Remember, when you're writing about Obama's Florida success to end each sentence with "in a beauty contest".

Oh wait, it's only Hillary's success that we demean.

[Lostskeleton]

12:09 PM on 01/30/2008

Clinton supporter: Hey! Hope is dead! Hillary just won Florida!

O supporter: really? How many delegates did she get?

Clinton supporter: It doesn't matter...she won!!

O Supporter: Wasn't there early voting in Florida when Clinton's lead was about 20 points!

Clinton supporter: It's a fairy tale...Jesse is not going to win!

O supporter: Who the heck is Jesse?

Clinton supporter: Stop playing the race card!

Wow...the Democratic party...good times.

[InOldSavannah]

12:01 PM on 01/30/2008

"Clinton did defeat Obama among Floridians who decided on a candidate on the day of the primary. But overwhelmingly, Clinton's support came from those who made up their minds over a month ago (63 percent to 27 percent)"

So Clinton not only got the very late deciders but also those that had decided early.

In spite of all the negativity thrown her way by FOX News and those at MSNBC, like Joe Scarborough, Chris Matthews and Tim Russert, who no doubt have pictures of Obama tattooed on their respective asses, early voters and late voters, both of whom could have changed their votes if they had been so turned off by Hillary or Bill Clinton, still stayed with Hillary Clinton which shows that Florida voters have not been fooled by the Clinton haters and bashers and voted for the best qualified candidate.

[dbredes]

11:31 AM on 01/30/2008

And that last day split...

Let's see Who was making deals with the Florida Dems Last Weekend and pandering to Florida....

with that age old line

Vote for Me..Only I appreciate you...I'll make your votes count...

I'll respect you in the morning...

[cblcar]

11:20 AM on 01/30/2008

Clinton's win in Florida was clearly impressive and that is all most of the voting public is going to see. Most people are not political blogging junkies like we are. They know nothing about Florida's delegate controvery and care even less.

Will be interesting to see how Edwards' pulling out will affect things. You've got to know he made a deal with someone.

[dbredes]

11:18 AM on 01/30/2008

Did you see this headline on the politics page?

ELDERLY CANDIDATE WINS ELDERLY VOTE IN FLORIDA, RUDY SET TO WITHDRAW TO SPEND MORE TIME WITH 9/11


I thought it was a split article...with the first part talking about Clinton and the 2nd talking about Rudy...

Hillary Clinton, Elderly Candidate wins elderly vote in Florida...

No Really!!!

Too Funny!!