Looming Delegate Fight Over Florida And Michigan Races

The split decision from Super Tuesday's coast-to-coast balloting has thrust the fight over the disputed delegations from Michigan and Florida back into the spotlight, now that neither Democrat can claim an outright delegate victory.

Political pundits Wednesday forecast that the Hillary Clinton campaign would now make a renewed push to seat the delegates from The Wolverine and Sunshine States, given the neck-and-neck delegate count on the Democratic side.

"It's easy to imagine that they could be the difference between Obama and Clinton even after the super delegates have made their decision," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia told The Huffington Post.

According to projections from NBC news, Barack Obama was expected to rack up between 840 and 849 delegates following Super Tuesday balloting, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton.

Delegates to the Democratic National Convention are awarded proportionally based on votes received in each congressional district. There are also a number of so-called "super delegates," Democratic Party elected officials and insiders, who are awarded a convention vote based on their position in the party.

The Democratic Party had earlier sanctioned Michigan and Florida for leapfrogging ahead of other early voting states in the primary calendar by stripping them of their convention delegates, and each of the major candidates pledged not to campaign in those states.

Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean was quoted by the St. Petersburg Times in June 2007 saying: "Their primary essentially won't count...Anybody who campaigns in Florida is ineligible for delegates."

Barack Obama and John Edwards withdrew their names from the ballot in Michigan, leaving only Clinton and several minor candidates in the race. Clinton won the Jan. 17 primary with 55 percent over "uncommitted" which received 40 percent of the vote.

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Clinton also won the Jan. 30 Florida Primary, with 50 percent of the vote to Obama's 33 percent.

The Obama camp derided the win as meaningless in an email sent to reporters on primary night, reminding the press that both candidates received zero delegates in the Florida primary.

But Obama supporters also cried foul over Clinton's pre-election activities in the state, saying that two events she attended in the Sunshine State broke her pledge to respect the Democratic Party's sanctions and avoid campaigning in Florida.

The Clinton campaign argued that the events were closed to the public, and therefore in line with the no-campaigning pledge.

On primary night, Clinton also flew to Florida for a victory celebration alongside Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Alcee Hastings.

The Associated Press reported on Jan. 27 that Clinton had already vowed to try to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates:

"I will try to persuade my delegates to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida," Clinton said at a campaign stop in Tennessee before flying to Sarasota.

Congressional Quarterly's Craig Crawford, writing on his "Trail Mix" blog, forecast what was in store for the convention if the candidates became embroiled in a credential fight:

First, the rival campaigns must compete behind the scenes for the support of credentials committee members - a contest that could prove to be the most important "primary" of all.

Outside the backrooms, the Clinton campaign will surely mount a vigorous public relations drive aimed at turning the debate into a question of "voting rights" and "civil rights," hoping to put Obama in the position of seeming to oppose such civil liberties. And the Clinton team will argue that Democrats simply cannot afford to deny entry to two of the nation's biggest swing states in the general election.

Already, pundits and party activists are raising the possibility that the Democratic Party might have to consider is a "re-do" in Michigan and Florida.

Marc Ambinder wrote Wednesday that:

Here is what might happen instead.

The DNC will sanction new contests, probably caucuses.

The Clinton will protest vociferously. Caucus? CAUCUS?

There will be a big debate.

Sabato told The Huffington Post that there had been "lots of credentials fight" over the years in the Democratic Party, but nothing quite like the "mess" looming in the current fight.

He also said credentials fight doesn't bode well for the party heading into the general election.

"When you get factions within the party believing that they have been treated unfairly, you have created the super-structure of defeat," Sabato said. "Some half of the party is going to feel cheated. That is exactly what you don't want your party activists to feel headed into a contested general election."

Comments

[DennyCrane]

If the delegates for Florida and Michigan are seated, the DNC and Howard Dean will lose all credibility. The message it sends is that Dean is scared of the Clintons and that states like Florida and Michigan can defy party rules and get away with it. It'll also make Hillary Clinton look like a cheater. She can't win the nomination the normal way so she has to pull in states that weren't supposed to count.

[Purple Girl]

As a Michigander I DON"T want our Delegates to count.
Clinton was handed our state on a silver (corp logo engraved) platter.
We were not allowed to participate in the Democratic Process, by having ALL the Candiates listed ( and constantly IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER on ALL the Ballots- No Doubt Rigged!)
everyone who shoved this travesty down our throats should be prosecuted for Election Fraud! right up to Mr. Dean!
they'll only count our states if Hillary has fallen behind. We're the 'Ace in the Hole' for the CORPORATIONIST. Michigan has been a victim of these entities for decades, they have infested our gov't for nearly 100 yrs.
Michigan is the Dead Whore the left in th emotel room on Woodward Ave all those years ago. And they've now flourished in our nations capitol, in all OUR HOUSES! Look at MI and see the future of US. Used, Abused and disgarded.
Hillary's just working to recruit more wide eyed naive 'runaways' for her Pimps.

[AxelDC]

If Clinton wins these delegates and wins the nomination, she will have won a worthless prize. The Democrats were foolish to strip them of their delegates, but Clinton campaigned in bad faith after the other candidates honored the party's decision.

She now wants to be rewarded for her duplicity. These just reinforces the stereotype about the manipulative, untrustworthy characters of the Clintons.

If she succeeds in winning on this gambit, she will alienate Obama supporters and lose the election handily. Her unpopularity may cost the Democrats control of Congress. Then again, they deserve to lose if they are foolish enough to put her up after her dirty politics and poor campaign management. If she can't handle her campaign finances, how will she handle Bush's deficit legacies?

[Ides]

Howard Dean was on television recently saying, "Hey, they should be happy we just took their delegates, we threatened them with a whole lot worse."

No way he's going to seat those delegates.

[SwingStateVeteran]

Fighting the "good" fight?

1. I voted in Florida's primary. So did another 1,737,196 democrats.

2. One candidate is arguing to DISENFRANCHISE ALL those votes in order to gain political advantage.

3. The other candidate is arguing to COUNT ALL those votes in order to gain political advantage.

4. Contrary to what is frequently stated, Obama was the only one that campaigned in Florida. Anyone who was watching TV in Florida in the week leading up to the primary saw Obama advertisments -- he was running National advertisments that he "couldn't control." Leading up to January 29th, there were several media reports of grassroots efforts to get the vote out (unaffiliated with the official campaigns). There is even a report of Obama giving an accidental press conference in Florida.
(too lazy to find the links)

5. For those wanting some of the nitty-gritty of the politics that led to this mess, please take a moment to review:

http://www.makeitcountflorida.com/page/content/makeitcount-faqs/

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[Gary47]

If you're going to have a caucus, do it sooner rather than later. In fact do it as soon as you know that neither candidate will win it outright. Don't wait a minute longer.

[angelbravo]

It might cost votes in MI and FLA not to seat them.
However if counting them puts Hillary over the top. At least half of the Convention proably will as they should walk out of the convention.

[Silpat]

Hillary is clearly a snake, who pledges one thing and turns around and does the opposite.

If she can't be trusted on this issue then how is she to be trusted with the power of the Presidency. Hillary is trying to dupe the Democrats for political gain and self-interest.

How pathetic is it that this woman can't win anything on her own merit and "35 years" of experience.

[patriotscholar]

Sorry, but the delegates should not count. Rules are rules. Breaking the rules would be just more of the same, would it not?

[EvSmith]

How can delegates be awarded after the rules in place were violated by the state of Michigan and only one major candidate(Hillary ofcourse)left her name on the ballot to take advantage of the situation? How does that work?

As for Florida, they tried to pull a dirty trick in diminishing the influence of the early states and they did it with intentions of giving Hillary Clinton a well timed big push going into February 5.
Howard Dean Did the ONLY RIGHT thing and he stood his ground with these suckers.

The DNC and the Dem party doesn't owe Hillary or her friends in Florida and Michigan this type of play. She has had enough establishment insider advantage.
Florida and Michigan need to put this down in the history books as a political maneuver that didn't pan out the way they wanted it to, as an early state influence busting change up to the established rule book, for the benefit of a certain well connected candidate, who is all too comfortable with this type of underhanded b.s. Republicanism is a way of conducting business that never considers ethics and never respects the rules. It's ANYTHING TO COME OUT ON TOP, anything at all.
Nothing is too low or too illegal. Billary has mastered the Republican playbook well and their experience shows.
Why did these officials do it, if they didn't want to exert an unfair influence on this race? Nice try guys.

I am worried still, as the New World Order NeoCons will stop at nothing to steal another election and the future, from the people of this country. The future belongs to them, not us you know. Ofcourse Florida's Republican officials would be right at the center of it.

Hillary represents all the worst people we don't know.

[Yurdelite]

As a Florida voter, I say the delegates do not count. Hillary knew this but once again she tries to divide the party and have things her way. Of course under the guise of "disenfranchising" voters. Everybody needs to understand the vote in FL was driven by a property tax amendment to the state constitution not the primary. Since the primary did not count, don't think there were college students, apartment dwellers and others who did not vote in the primary because they knew it did not count? How do we know if these voters were disenfranchised? We do not.

The Republican legislature changed the date. If Florida had left the primary date in March, we would be having a big say so in the process. It would be a hell of a lot more fair since Obama would have been able to campaign there. She knows that where ever he campaigns his numbers go up.

Billary is interested in POWER not you and me.

[DasBoot]

I cannot imagine the impact if the Democratic party goes into the convention undecided, and then Hilary Clinton receives the nomination due to perceived back room deals, or the votes of unelected super delegates.

I think given how close the race shapes up to be, the party should rescind the right of unelected delegates to vote and should allow Michigan and Florida to hold primaries fair and square later in spring.

[wakeupeverybody]

This is by far th first repectable blog arguement going. No one is callng the others out of their names, the comments are respectful
and delightul to read.

I know that once some of the regulars start blogging it will get ugly, but for now thanks for intelligent conversation.

[Chuckbutcher]

Boy, what a lot of opinions without any factual basis. Republican state legislatures decided to ignore DNC with their state financed primary, then the State Parties went along (guess what, within DNC guidelines the election belongs to the State Party) playing their Republican Legislatures' games against the DNC. The State Parties were free within DNC guidelines to organize several Primary formats, ie self financed Primary, various forms of Caucuses. But they were too important to follow the rules, backing Republicans against the national Democratic Party.

The DNC did nothing to MI/FL voters, their legislatures and State Parties did it. Hillary has nothing to work with, she is flat out a liar, it is not her party, it is the Democrat's party.

Does anybody bother to find out what is going on before spouting off? What a steaming pile...

[kbuggy12]

I know one thing, the moment MI and FL delegates are seated, that's the moment I VOTE for McCain!