Are We In A Recession, Ben Bernanke, Consumer Confidence, Federal Reserve, recession, Recession Fears, U.S. Economy
Are We In A Recession, Ben Bernanke, Consumer Confidence, Federal Reserve, recession, Recession Fears, U.S. Economy

Consumer Confidence Sinks Even Lower

JEANNINE AVERSA | February 8, 2008 07:53 AM EST | AP

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WASHINGTON — People's confidence in the economy sank even lower amid heightened fears about shrinking job opportunities and the possibility the country is falling into recession.

According to the RBC Cash Index, confidence dropped to a mark of 48.5 in early February, from 56.3 last month. The new reading was the worst since the index began in 2002 and surpassed the previous low reached in January.

The continued erosion in confidence comes despite the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has gotten much more forceful in cutting interest rates to induce people to buy more and bolster the economy. The Fed slashed interest rates twice over the span of just eight days in January _ its most aggressive rate reductions in two decades.

The White House and Congress, meanwhile, want to energize the economy by giving rebates to people and tax breaks to businesses. Congress passed an emergency plan Thursday that sends rebates to most taxpayers in an effort to spark the economy. President Bush has indicated he would sign the measure.

Still, an increasing number of economists worry that the rescue efforts by the Fed and the politicians may not be enough to avert the first nationwide recession since 2001. Some economists believe the economy has already toppled into a recession.

"Consumers are being hit by a series of body blows economically," said Carl Tannenbaum, an economic consultant in Chicago.

One of the biggest causes of angst: a weakening job market, analysts said. U.S. employers cut jobs in January for the first time in more than four years, the government reported last week. Wage growth also slowed last month, the report showed.

Another source of anxiety: a housing slump that continues to drag on. The housing bust has led to record-high home foreclosures and has dragged down home values _ usually peoples' single biggest asset _ making them feel less wealthy. In addition, high energy and food prices are squeezing budgets and turbulence on Wall Street is shrinking nest eggs. All these things are making people feel more insecure about their own financial fortunes and more concerned about the direction of the economy as a whole.

Over the past year, consumer confidence has deteriorated a lot, underscoring the toll of the housing collapse and a credit crunch that has made it harder for people to secure financing for big-ticket purchases such as homes, cars and appliances. Last February, confidence stood at a buoyant 103. The index is based on results of the international polling firm Ipsos.

"We are on the cusp of, or in the early stages of a recession. The confidence numbers clearly reflect consumers' feelings about that," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Economic problems have helped pull the president's approval ratings to all-time lows. Only 29 percent of the public approve of the president's handling of the economy, the lowest mark yet, according to a separate Associated Press-Ipsos poll. Bush's overall job-approval rating slid to 30 percent, also a record low, the poll said.

A measure looking at current economic conditions dropped to 63.6 in early February. And, a gauge of attitudes about investing, including comfort in making major purchases, fell to 62.6. Both readings were the lowest in six years of record keeping.

Looking ahead, individuals' sentiments about the economy and their own financial standing over the next six months stayed in negative territory. This gauge came in at a negative 7 percent in early February. That followed an even worse reading of negative 8.2 percent in January, which was the lowest since right after the deadly blows of the Gulf Coast hurricanes in 2005.

Another index tracking consumers' feelings about employment conditions fell to 101.3 in early February, the lowest since April 2004.

Economists keep close tabs on confidence barometers for clues about peoples' willingness to spend.

Shoppers are showing signs of pulling back.

Major retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest merchant, on Thursday reported weak sales figures for January _ further evidence of a faltering economy. Even when redeeming their holiday gift cards, shoppers mostly bought necessities. Affluent shoppers retrenched, too, hurting stores like Nordstrom Inc.

Consumer spending accounts for a big slice of overall economic activity. Thus, their behavior plays a major role in determining how the economy ultimately fares.

The economy nearly stalled in the final three months of last year, and some economists believe it may actually be shrinking in the current January-to-March quarter.

Under one rough rule, the economy would have to contract for six months for the country to be considered in a recession. The likelihood of a recession has risen sharply over the past year, and analysts increasingly believe the U.S. will be in one during the first half of 2008. The worry is that people and businesses will hunker down and pull back their spending, sending the economy into a tailspin.

The RBC consumer confidence index was based on the responses from 1,006 adults surveyed Monday through Wednesday about their attitudes on personal finance and the economy. Results of the survey had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The overall confidence index is benchmarked to a reading of 100 in January 2002, when Ipsos started the survey.

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Oh 'consume' THIS. If you don't blanking NEED it, don't blanking BUY it. If our contemporary raison d'etre is to spend, spend, spend, then 'count' me out. 9.22 trillion is laid up against our name as a country, people are mortgaged to the blanking eyeballs, well, there's some winners that aren't, I guess, everyone else has more or less become some variant of human chattel, get your 'service sector' job today(fuck YOU), individual people are buried, whole country's buried, the boss knows where YOU will be next month...an­d so do you. We're OWNED. Plainly and simply put. End of story. My view is, they need to get more people out there participating and being little broadcast beacons of REFORM. Bust up the rackets, challenge the old status quo, and get people thinking and reasoning to the best of their mortal ability, which is all you can really request of anyone, but reform-type stuff nonetheless. Everyone gets a piece, so to speak. The retail stores are likely to take a hit, here. But, so be it, the world is changing, and ya gotta try your best to change right along with it, depends on what's bein changed. Government neck collar? That's not a very good change...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:55 PM on 02/09/2008

2008, by our numbering system, is the year of the collapse of the United States economy. It will happen very fast, like the collapse of building 7. Inflation and unemployment will soar. There wont be any work and if there was the money wont be any good anyway. Millions of working class and "middle" class Americans will be homeless and hungry. The government will come to our aid in the same way it came to the aid of the flood victims in New Orleans. The only government presence will be soldiers, police and Blackwater "security" forces, deployed to disarm the people and protect the rich. I honestly don't know how we came to such a pass. But I know its no accident. In my ignorance I can only attribute the intentional destruction of our country to evil. Hows that for consumer confidence?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:01 AM on 02/09/2008
- MACS I'm a Fan of MACS permalink

.
Consumer confidence dropping, just one more demonstration of the GREAT HARVARD MBA bush policies.

.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:52 PM on 02/08/2008
- outnow I'm a Fan of outnow 179 fans permalink

Jobs are going overseas. American manufacturing has been dying on the vine. Asset bubble after asset bubble. A dropping dollar. "Liar loans." Deregulation of financial institutions. Prices escalating. Debt crisis. Credit problems.

Sounds like something to believe in and be confident about.

We need socialism for the very wealthy in the form of a bailout until they figure out the next scam.

Enron is an example. The subprime mess and lack of meaningful regulation and/or transparency. The free trade scam to make CEOs rich. Oh well, we can just start a war with Iran as a bailout.

I am out of confidence in the neoliberal agenda and the neocon agenda. What will our children do when we dump this mess onto their shoulders? Kucinich or Edwards would have helped but you folks like your Obama and Hillary's.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:30 PM on 02/08/2008
- mmckinl I'm a Fan of mmckinl 22 fans permalink

Consumer confidence down !

Maybe it's because people's biggest asset, their home, is tumbling in value?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:27 PM on 02/08/2008
- WIpatriot I'm a Fan of WIpatriot 36 fans permalink
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Or maybe poeple learn that the financial institution that they trusted with their money is rolling the dice and crapping out with it?

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, won't get fooled again."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:14 AM on 02/09/2008

Where is Robin Hood when you need him?
Sounds like it's time to devise a legal way of
"Tapping" these super rich CEO's for money?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:15 PM on 02/08/2008
- Mike169 I'm a Fan of Mike169 45 fans permalink
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I'm confident we're headed toward a depression. Does that help?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:36 PM on 02/08/2008

Economists are full of shit, this part of the country has been in a recession for a decade. The rest have kept it going with the housing bubble, now what? In the 90s we had the tech bubble, then we got the housing bubble. I think we're out of bubbles. If the economy is 70% consumer driven, then we need real jobs with real pay to keep it going, otherwise we are done. Have you noticed how all American companies deversified to international markets? They knew the American consumer is or will be tapped out eventually. Thats why you have Starbucks in Saudi Arabia, of all places. Women, just don't go and drink coffee with men, there. Stone age rules apply.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:59 AM on 02/08/2008
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"Only 29 percent of the public approve of the president's handling of the economy, the lowest mark yet, according to a separate Associated Press-Ipsos poll. Bush's overall job-approval rating slid to 30 percent, also a record low, the poll said."


WTF? You have got to be freakin' kidding me. How can it be this high?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:35 AM on 02/08/2008
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Greetings, mrc. I've been reading and digesting your posts lately with great interest - you've really brought a lot of things to light for me about the economy - so thanks for that. But I do have to say, I'm scared as hell about the shit that's gonna go down. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if 1/2 the stuff you predict happens, we're all f@#$%ed. Just watched "Maxed Out" last night for an even broader picture of what's going on in the credit/banking industry - scary, scary stuff. What in your opinion would be the best steps to take to at least be somewhat protected when all of this happens. And just in your opinion what do you feel the time frame is before the shit really hits the fan.

Thanks,
Jez

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:02 AM on 02/08/2008
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You're quite welcome Jez.

A meeting of the G7 is taking place in Tokyo this weekend. So far Bernanke and Paulson are getting reamed for allowing this meltdown and most are ready to let us sink. I will look you up again once the report comes out. Remember we are talking about countries who lost billions on this scam and are very pissed.

http://www.euractiv.com/en/euro/global-financial-turmoil-casts-shadow-g7-meeting/article-170191

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:36 PM on 02/08/2008

mrcontinental; You know politicians , particularly Republicans count every thing twice then multiply by a factor of 2.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:57 PM on 02/08/2008
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That explains it I suppose. Wonder why they didn't do that with our wages?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:41 PM on 02/08/2008
- mmckinl I'm a Fan of mmckinl 22 fans permalink

Bush's approval will go down from here and in the end be the lowest off all Presidents.

GW cemented his 'worst ever president' position in the first term and has only padded his lead in the second term.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:30 PM on 02/08/2008
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I'm taking my $600 and sending it to the Dems.

THANKS, President Bush!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:24 AM on 02/08/2008
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ROFL
Good one!
ROFL

Got Rope?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:26 AM on 02/08/2008
- KRANKY I'm a Fan of KRANKY 14 fans permalink

All of those laid-off construction workers now have opportunities building scaffolds and caskets.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:03 PM on 02/08/2008

Stretchumall ;Still got my tree. 1776

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:59 PM on 02/08/2008
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