Chuck Todd, msnbc, MSNBC delegates, nbc
Chuck Todd, msnbc, MSNBC delegates, nbc

NBC's Fuzzy Delegate Math

Wall Street Journal   |  Carl Bialik   |   February 8, 2008 01:38 PM


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To secure the Democratic nomination for president, either Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama will need to secure 2,025 delegates. Depending on which account you accepted Friday morning, Ms. Clinton was either leading the delegate race, with more than half the needed total, or trailing Mr. Obama with both candidates shy of the halfway mark.

At least five different news organizations are tracking delegate counts, and as this blog and others noted after Super Tuesday -- and others pointed out earlier in primary season -- the numbers have been all over the map. By Friday, the Associated Press's count (used by The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post and others), was scoring Ms. Clinton ahead, 1,045 to 960. CBS News had a Clinton lead of 1,069 to 1,001; at ABC News, it was 1,069 to 990; and CNN called it 1,037 to 933. Meanwhile, NBC News had Mr. Obama in the lead, 861 to 855. More discrepancies are likely to arise after tomorrow's votes in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington state and the Virgin Islands. (I'm focusing on the Democratic race because John McCain by all accounts has a sizeable lead among Republican candidates.)

The biggest discrepancy is between NBC and its competitors, both in the margin and in the total. That's because it's the only outlet of the five to exclude so-called superdelegates, whose votes aren't pledged based on outcomes of state votes. Most who have expressed a preference have pledged support for Ms. Clinton, but they can change their minds until the party convention. (See this WSJ.com explainer for more details.)

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Just break the numbers into 2 columns (BO-HC) & three categories:
Pledged - superdelegates announced/pending - MI/FL
It's easy enough to figure out from there.
The DNC should be doing this, not NBC and AP.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:56 PM on 02/10/2008

These are DNC delegates, right? Shouldn't the DNC have the definitive numbers? Where the hell are they?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:48 PM on 02/10/2008

The superdelegates aren't pledged like regular delegates.

Nothing they've promised is binding. I don't think they should be shown in the "delegate tally" at all.

Unlike the voters' delegates, how the superdelegates REALLY will vote won't be known until the convention.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:52 AM on 02/11/2008

Lets not forget AP thinks Paris Hilton is a real news story.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:42 PM on 02/10/2008

I love the fox noise moonbats that squeal about faux news. All on blogs where HuffyPo changes headlines to suit their agenda.

So fucking dumb they are marooned in a big corporate media site.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:47 PM on 02/10/2008

The corrupt system of super delegates put into place by Clinton's minions is like a convention of crime families. This was designed as her ultimate safety net in securing the nomination. The only problem with this backroom scenario is she will never beat McCain.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:32 PM on 02/09/2008

I respect Donna Brazile (a superdelegate) for saying that if the SDs overturn the clear intention of most voters, she'll resign from the Democratic party.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:54 AM on 02/11/2008

Having super delegates is something I would expect in corrupt third world dictatorships, it has no place in a functioning democracy. Everyone who votes should have their votes count equally.

Super delegates is an open door to establishment corruption and personal bribery.

Example: "My vote counts for 10,000 peoples, so if you donate $100,000 in cash to my buy a sports car foundation I will give you my 10,000 votes."

Does that sound like democracy?

The more I learn about this country, the sicker I get.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:28 PM on 02/09/2008

i just read a article that new mexico is still counting and has not been decided even though its being reported that hillary won it. and the ap has obama ahead by 2. and please stop with the media bias against clinton argument. i have been following this campaign since it started because of the fiasco of the last elections. and i clearly remember when the media told us that this was her race and she pretty much had it tied up in a bow. the only thing hat changed is like all candidates the dirt came out and now that is being reported. some act as though they are pulling thingsout of the air.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:10 AM on 02/09/2008

the headline for this post is an outright lie.Why do you people keep doing this?The story had nothing to with "fuzzy math",but contained a straightforward nd sensible reason why NBC had the numbers they did.

Huffpo really needs top using headlines that are completely contrary to what the stories they're leading are about.If you think that lying about what the post contains is good journalism,you all need to go to work for Fox.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:25 AM on 02/09/2008

I agree. I'm getting really fed up by the misleading (even lying) headlines. Bringing back yellow journalism, HuffPo?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:56 AM on 02/11/2008

They are absolutely pro-Obama biased at NBC News. Actually, they're biased in favor of anybody who isn't Hillary. I lost all respect for Tim Russert when he insisted during the Philly debate that Hillary Clinton "pledge" that Iran will not develop a nuclear weapon while she's President, but when the other candidates give the same answer as Hillary, he doesn't bother them about it. Here is a sample of what transpired, and you can read the rest at: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/30/us/politics/30debate-transcript.html?pagewanted=all
MR. RUSSERT: Senator Clinton, would you pledge to the American people that Iran will not develop a nuclear bomb while you are president?
SEN. CLINTON: I intend to do everything I can to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.
MR. RUSSERT: But you won't pledge?
SEN. CLINTON: I am pledging I will do everything I can to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.
MR. RUSSERT: But they may.
SEN. CLINTON: Well, you know, Tim, you asked me if I would pledge, and I have pledged that I will do everything I can -- (laughter) -- to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.
MR. RUSSERT: Senator Edwards.
MR. EDWARDS: What I will do is take all the responsible steps that can be taken to keep Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
MR. RUSSERT: Senator Obama.
SEN. OBAMA: I think all of us are committed to Iran not having nuclear weapons. And -- and so, you know, we -- we -- we could potentially short-circuit this. (Laughter.)
But -- but I think there is a larger point at stake, Tim, and that is we have been governed by fear...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:06 AM on 02/09/2008

Pat Buchanan always spins for Hillary but then again hes a republican and he knows the republicans need Hillary nominated in order for McCain to win.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:26 PM on 02/10/2008

Just the opposite, the republicans are summond to vote for Obama in democratic primaries, thus have him nominated and then vote for McCain in general election, if this were not the case they would have kept quiet about Hillary at this point, but they're setting a trap for the dems, it's that obvious; and the dems, intoxicated by Obama's sweet 'mean nothing' slogans fell right into it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:26 PM on 02/10/2008

Damn, it looks like it squished the text together at the end of my post for some reason. Try the link if that's hard to read.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:10 AM on 02/09/2008

Does anyone else think that the whole concept of Superdelegates should be tossed out. It is exactly contrary to the concept of democracy and is a remanent of the old days when party bosses ignored the wishes of their members and instead just picked whoever they wanted. And it doesn't appear the Rubuplicans put up with this crap or at leaset they don't give these "super voters" (i.e. non-democratic) such a huge percentage of the vote required for the nomination. Who would of thought the Republican party to be more democratic then the Democrats?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:45 PM on 02/08/2008

Republicans have 'winner take all states'... this race would be over already if Dems did that.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:25 AM on 02/09/2008

But "winner take all" is bad. It gives unfair influence to small states, small populations and completely disenfranchises WAY too many voters (e.g. 49% to 51%, only one person wins it all.) Really not fairly representative.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:00 AM on 02/11/2008

Its funny how this article says MSNBC is not selecting superdelegates but negates the fact that Hillary is still ahead and it also denies the fact that the caucus states will not decide until later and they too can change their delegates.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:35 PM on 02/08/2008

What do you mean by saying "the caucus states will not decide until later and they too can change their delegates"?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:13 AM on 02/09/2008

check this out:

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071023/

NEWS19/71023027/1232

You'll have to cut and paste the whole thing.

This is Nevada only, but you can check out each state if you like.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:49 AM on 02/09/2008

Is this a WSJ heading or a Huffpo heading? It seems that NBC is using less fuzzy numbers than the others since they're only counting the truly committed delegates, the Superdelegates haven't voted yet.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:49 PM on 02/08/2008

It's never surprising when MSNBC does something that favors Obama.

He's there brand.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:22 PM on 02/08/2008

*their

UGH.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:23 PM on 02/08/2008

Ya, I know how it feels to make mistakes.

MSNBC is eering on the side of caution and trying to be as accurate as possible.

We all know the super delegates can change their minds, so why count them?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:21 PM on 02/08/2008

Counting super delegates now is utterly ridiculous. Super delegates will cast their vote at the convention, in late August. Does your bank account include a future inheritance or something?

"Yeah, I know I only have $20.00 in my account now, but why can't I get a million in advance since my parents have a billion which I'll inherit when they'll die?" Try to take this to the bank and see how it goes.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:43 PM on 02/08/2008

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

Now the numbers are Clinton 832, Obama 821 in the delegate count. This does not include the establishment counts of the Superdelegates that have only been promised but are not committed until the Convention.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:07 PM on 02/08/2008

So...the DNC says one thing, Chuck Todd got the numbers directly from the DNC, the Obama campaign, AND the Clinton campaign.

But they're wrong?

This reminds me of 2000 when NBC was the only news station who knew what the fuck they were talking about and every other network was running around with their heads cut off trying to get to bed early.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:06 PM on 02/08/2008

Yes, NBC was the first network to call Florida for Gore. They announced it twenty minutes before the polls closed.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:54 AM on 02/09/2008

Maybe Chuck Todd is using the numbers from the DNC themselves.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections08/story/0,,2254922,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront

The final tally of delegates has still not been allocated after Super Tuesday. The 2008 Democratic Convention Watch website today gave Clinton a total of 862 elected delegates to Obama's 883.

But when super-delegates - the 700-plus members of Congress, governors and others who automatically have a vote at the conventions - are taken into account, she has 1,065 and Obama 996.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:03 PM on 02/08/2008

The Wall Street Journal is making trouble and is being dishonest in its reporting. All these discrepancies can be explained in two ways. First, some of these counts are swhowing only official counts and not projections of delegate counts which are not yet official. Secondly, the earlier counts include super delegates - if you see a delegate count that puts Hilary Clinton in the lead, it contains super delegate counts, since Barack Obama is ahead on pledged delegates. And finally, the NBC count by Churck Todd was for Super Tuesday only and did not contain superdelegates. There is very little disagreement that Obama will have 905-910 delegates going inot Saturday's caucuses, and that Hilary has 880-885. Hilary has about 200 super delegates who have endorsed her and Obama has a little over 1/2 of that - so when you see a count that puts Hilary 80 pts. in the lead, you know super delegates are included. Remember, super delegates can change their minds - in general pledged delegates can not.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:29 PM on 02/08/2008

Spin Spin Spin...

There are at least 5 sources you can go to that will give you different delegate counts WITHOUT superdelegates. That's because some of the caucuses delegates still have not been determined... they are merely estimated.

So your above post is completely inaccurate. You are trying to spin this by parroting the Obama talking points. I can clearly see 'pledged delegate only' numbers that show Clinton in the lead... and so can you if you'd get off the MSNBC site for a minute.

Superdelegates 'can' change their minds, but the majority are unlikely to, as many have already pledged their support, and are not thrilled at the prospect of 'unpledging'... Could you imagine Ted Kennedy having to reverse his Obama pledge and change to Clinton because she won Massachusetts?... Yeah, I didn't think so.

Likewise, Caucus delegates also 'can' change their minds as well once at the convention.... should we not be counting them too?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:35 AM on 02/09/2008

NBC will use whatever number favors Obama in terms of perception. NBC is Obama's Pimp!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:19 PM on 02/08/2008

EXACTLY - they are the ONLY network showing her behind - obviously this is their politically motivated attempt to elect the next president, vs. the people - SHAME ON YOU MSNB

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:14 PM on 02/08/2008

NBC will use whatever number favors Obama in terms of perception. NBC is Obama's Pimp!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:19 PM on 02/08/2008

It is better to not include the delegates at this time. However, the DNC has the superdelegates at 20% of the total delegate count for nomination. All media should present the numbers in two columns: one with total pledge delegates and superdelegates on the other. CNN has presented this quite straightforwardly.

I think the reason NBC/MSNBC is being criticized is being they have been pretty critical of Hillary in a tabloid/talk show kind of way with Matthews, Shuster, Scarborough, Brezinski leading the attack. They have been acting like broadcast bloggers and opinion makers instead of news reporters or journalists.

I know MSNBC in particular is so desperate in trying to edge out Fox News in the ratings that it is doing all it can to be controversial however wrong or right they deliver the news and express their opinion. It is unprofessional of MSNBC to allege, insinuate or distort information as news in their quest to be the Liberal equivalent of conservative FOX News.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:34 PM on 02/08/2008

I agree with you on the separate columns. It seems irresponsible for them to be adding them together with little explanation at this point. After all, there will be nearly 800 superdelegates, and they're only counting about three hundred at present.

My question is this: is there an official tally-keeper from within the party? Wouldn't it make sense for Dean to designate someone as an official scorekeeper of pledged delegates, and to then distribute those numbers to the media, rather than letting each media outlet go wild with these speculative tallies?

www.getfreshcut.com

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:47 PM on 02/08/2008

Yes. The DNC should be the one tallying the delegate total and distributing them to the media. However, in the spirit of party and being neutral during the primary nominee election process, they let the delegate/superdelegate complex calculations and the rules to the so-called "forecasters'" calculation and how to interpret the inclusion of the superdelegates; many assumptions are considered as some of the superdelegates haven't expressed their participation.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:56 PM on 02/08/2008

Uh.....isn't it better to not include Superdelegates? It lets you know who's actually winning, in terms of elected delegates. If anything, they should have, at all times, both the numbers with, and without the superdelegates.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:52 PM on 02/08/2008

Thanks, I guess I don't have to waste my energy in explaining that.

MSNBC uses the pledged delegates which is the safe way to go since they don't change.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:16 PM on 02/08/2008

Actually Caucus delegates CAN CHANGE THEIR VOTES at the convention as well. History shows they don't usually do this, but it can happen... so shouldn't we take them out too?... I man Superdelegates don't really have a record of changing their pledges either.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:38 AM on 02/09/2008
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