NBC's Fuzzy Delegate Math
To secure the Democratic nomination for president, either Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama will need to secure 2,025 delegates. Depending on which account you accepted Friday morning, Ms. Clinton was either leading the delegate race, with more than half the needed total, or trailing Mr. Obama with both candidates shy of the halfway mark.
At least five different news organizations are tracking delegate counts, and as this blog and others noted after Super Tuesday -- and others pointed out earlier in primary season -- the numbers have been all over the map. By Friday, the Associated Press's count (used by The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post and others), was scoring Ms. Clinton ahead, 1,045 to 960. CBS News had a Clinton lead of 1,069 to 1,001; at ABC News, it was 1,069 to 990; and CNN called it 1,037 to 933. Meanwhile, NBC News had Mr. Obama in the lead, 861 to 855. More discrepancies are likely to arise after tomorrow's votes in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington state and the Virgin Islands. (I'm focusing on the Democratic race because John McCain by all accounts has a sizeable lead among Republican candidates.)
The biggest discrepancy is between NBC and its competitors, both in the margin and in the total. That's because it's the only outlet of the five to exclude so-called superdelegates, whose votes aren't pledged based on outcomes of state votes. Most who have expressed a preference have pledged support for Ms. Clinton, but they can change their minds until the party convention. (See this WSJ.com explainer for more details.)



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Wall Street Journal | Carl Bialik | February 8, 2008 01:38 PM