Late Deciders In Louisiana: Clinton's Closing Continues, But Obama Holds Serve

One of the electoral trends we've noticed in the early contests really took root on Super Tuesday: namely, that while Democratic voters were willing to flirt with the Obama campaign, and swing late into his column, the latest of the late voters - the ones who made up their minds the day of the election - we're trending heavily toward Clinton. The simplest reasons probably inform this trend in decision making - Clinton's history, her name-recognition, the perception that she is the "safe" candidate - but it's hard to ignore this small, yet constant trend, breaking back against Obama's momentum.

The limitations of available exit poll data (none is available for Washington or Nebraska) make it impossible to suggest that the Louisiana results are much more than a statistical outlier, but the trend continued in the Bayou State. According to exit polls, those who made up their minds in the "last three days" went to Obama by a 53-41 margin. He was able to "hold serve" in Louisiana, as well, capturing the majority of voters who made up their minds on the day of the election. However, as we've seen before, Clinton managed to cut into Obama's grip of the late deciders: his 53-41 advantage got worn down to 41-32.

It's a small difference, yes - but there were twice as many voters making up their mind at the last minute. And the Clinton campaign can additionally point to the fact that they didn't do much campaigning in Louisiana - President Clinton made appearances, but the candidate did not - and were largely outspent in all three states from Saturday's decisions. The numbers look better for Obama than many of the Super Tuesday states, but Clinton's ability to close remains a interesting area of vulnerability for the Illinois Senator.

Comments

[ltfcrazy]

How many journalists ARE there in this world? Enough that we need to make a poll for every possible nuance of every possible decision of every possible demographic of every possible ad nauseum polling group.

[TAHARQA]

See column titled "Obama always loses"

[PeaceChristBwithU]

Clinton "breaking up Obama's momentum?" What planet are you on. Obama bested her by 21% points in Louisiana, 36 points in Washington, 36 points in Nebraska and over 80 points in the Virgin Islands. He is now ahead 15 points in Maine, as state Clinton was supposed to win. The only way she is slowing his momentum is if she throws bodies until his bus - which she seems to have begun doing by firing her campaign leader.

[pmorain]

If you do the math, that means Clinton got 77% as many three-day deciders, and 78% as many last day deciders. As with any exit poll, there is at least a few percent margin of error. Why was this story printed? These numbers do not say what they are purported to say. There is no tightening of any gap.

[ProgressiveNotLiberal]

Man, talk about reaching for straws. The only closing that counts is the winning of delegates. In all demographics, Obama is closing the deal and Clinton is not holding very well at all.

[jpginla]

Boy, HuffPo publishes one plausibly pro-Clinton story (and it isn't even pro, it is simply looking at some interesting statistical data from one race, which is really neutral in content), and the first post acts as if it is an endorsement for Hillary.

Look at the rest of the stories on HuffPo before you get too concerned. They have to throw 1 in 10 neutral stories in for Clinton, or else the pro-Obama bias will be even too strong for the HuffPo editors to stomach.

[sjl106]

How did obama win in ALL demographics? 26k voted in NE, 50k in WA, wait till their primary it won't go the same. Your fooling yourself he has won states that won't vote for him if he wins the nominee. The black vote pushed him in LA and the white vote didn't, vote for him. There is no way he is going to get around this if he were nominated. I told you

[detriangulation]

Stop trying to ghettoize Obama and cherry pick data where it's convenient for your argument. Whites are voting for Obama in landslides in virtually all-white states. And he won the white vote in Cali. It's only in the deep South where he gets only a quarter of the white vote. Watch the white vote in Virginia this Tuesday, it won't be nearly as lopsided toward Clinton as it has been in the deep South.