Barack Obama, delegate count, Democratic delegate count, Hillary Clinton, Howard Fineman, msnbc
Barack Obama, delegate count, Democratic delegate count, Hillary Clinton, Howard Fineman, msnbc

Fineman: Now "Virtually Impossible" For Clinton To Win More Delegates

Talking Points Memo   |  Josh Marshall   |   February 13, 2008 12:12 AM


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Howard Fineman just did a brief segment on MSNBC gaming out the delegate count and where it's likely to end up when the last primaries and caucuses are over. He said he based his comments on conversations with people in both campaigns. And the gist of it was that both sides agree that it's highly unlikely that Clinton can end up with more pledged delegates than Barack Obama. And the issue now is how close she can keep the margin.

If she can keep it within a couple dozen delegates, he argued, it would be credible to try to make up the margin with super delegates. On the other hand, if Obama's ahead by 100 or 200, the pressure against trying to make up the margin with non-elected delegates would just be too great.

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- deedrdo I'm a Fan of deedrdo 7 fans permalink

the operative word is "virtually".

here in california 1,000,000 absentee ballots have yet to be tallied...that's 1/4 of the vote.

also, how he can get into the minds of hundreds of super delegates is quite amazing. courting super delegates is pure and simple, down and dirty back room politics at it's worst/best. my bet is that the clinton camp will be much more successful at it than obama's. maybe not.

i say he's counting his chickens before they hatch.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:52 AM on 02/13/2008
- EinChicago I'm a Fan of EinChicago 38 fans permalink

Obama has become the candidate of the fringe left and McCain will beat him easily because he plays bettere to the remaining 80% of the general population.

The real danger now lies in how McCain wins, not if he wins. If McCain wins over Obama by taking a large chunk of moderates and swing voters and heavy support from the conservatives, then he will beholden to the conservatives who put him in place. If McCain wins with a majority fo support from the moderates so that he can flip the bird to the religious conservatives, then he will be more likely to remain relatively moderate. As a moderate dem voter, I don't see any choice but to vote McCain if Obama is our sacrificial lamb.

The Nader herd sabotages us once again.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:29 AM on 02/13/2008
- Ping I'm a Fan of Ping 63 fans permalink

Another Republican comes out of the closet.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:44 AM on 02/13/2008
- EinChicago I'm a Fan of EinChicago 38 fans permalink

I have never voted or supported a republican in my life, but, like 60% of the nation, I will vote for the middle than the fringe on either side.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:54 AM on 02/13/2008
- johnmorgan I'm a Fan of johnmorgan 19 fans permalink

Yes, the "fringe left" which the majority of Americans actually agree with, according to polls on the issues alone.

McCain is a fascist, just like Bush.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:44 AM on 02/13/2008

No, you've got it all wrong - he's a Reaganite. Also, he's anti-choice; I have a flier from the Clinton campaign that says so.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:49 AM on 02/13/2008
- Paul I'm a Fan of Paul 32 fans permalink

Hillary has yet to roll out her secret weapon: the Rush Limbaugh endorsement.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:15 AM on 02/13/2008
- naturesway I'm a Fan of naturesway 12 fans permalink

With the soaring rhetoric of Obama, his followers have come to expect his Presidency will be the shining beacon on the hill. But when the reality of the situation hits, things will get a bit bumpy. Our country is on the verge of economic collapse. Recession is here and soon the real depression will strike as banks go belly up. Iraq is devolving into chaos and the greater middle east is ready to pounce on that hell hole.
IN the next 4 years, we will see very dark days. Unemployment, war, climate change...
Someone is going to be the fall guy for all our troubles, and it will be the 44th President of the US who will have to take the blame.
Go Obama

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:11 AM on 02/13/2008
- Paul I'm a Fan of Paul 32 fans permalink

Yeah, the way Rooseveldt took the fall for Hoover. Sometimes leadership does make a difference...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:32 AM on 02/13/2008
- sammy333 I'm a Fan of sammy333 4 fans permalink

hopefully people will vote for Obama because Clinton voted for the war, voted for another war, voted for the Patriot act, and, .. just a few days ago .. voted for immunity for the illegal wiretapping.

Hillary is identical to McCain, and we already have McCain on the ballot.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:10 AM on 02/13/2008

Just to make a correction: Clinton was absent for the wiretapping vote.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:53 AM on 02/13/2008
- EinChicago I'm a Fan of EinChicago 38 fans permalink

And Obama has not seen a funding bill for the Iraq war he didn't like.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:55 AM on 02/13/2008
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I don't see why people think Ohio will go to Clinton.... Ohio has been impacted by NAFTA and MFN for China probably more than any other state. Why would people in Ohio vote for the wife of the guy who green lighted both of these?

I know Obama is giving a speech on these issues today... Maybe it was wise for him to save this speech to be the last bullet to blow away the Clinton machine with. How will Hillary defend NAFTA? After all, it was passed during one of the years that she is claiming as experience on her resume... The economy might have been good in the middle of Clinton's term but in the last year of his term it was turning sour. He also lit the fuse which blew up the trade deficit in the years following his presidency.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:38 AM on 02/13/2008
- naschkatze I'm a Fan of naschkatze 113 fans permalink

Yes, he really needs to start hitting her with NAFTA.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:49 AM on 02/13/2008

He is: Susan Rice was just on CNN using that as a talking point on his behalf.

People think Ohio will go for Clinton because her campaign has a better media-outreach operation than Obama does. You know, "Clinton is a champion of the working class", etc.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:55 AM on 02/13/2008

Granted, this is just one poll, but it's solidly Ohio going for Clinton...

Ohio Dem Primary
Poll dated yesterday, 02/12.
Clinton 56%
Obama 39%
+/- 4%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=d557457d-00cb-4628-9549-16029e76b808&q=45558

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/ohio.html

Also note, Ohio Dems award 161 delegates PROPORTIONALLY (not winner take all).

Not sure if Ohio primary is "open" or "closed."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:54 PM on 02/13/2008

To me Obama is already the nominee, all the party has to do now to concentrate on the general elections in November. Stop wasting valuable time with this superdelegate none sense. Enough Already. The voters have spoken a long time ago... Let us move on...

Obama 08!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:29 AM on 02/13/2008
- Trilby I'm a Fan of Trilby 10 fans permalink
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Yay! (Go, Obama!!!!)

I hope the Democratic politicos realize the severe damage they would do by brokering a deal that differs widely from the primary results. (Go, Obama!!!!) My fear is that they seem to live on a different plane of reality than the rest of us, for instance, the bunch of jerks we sent to DC in 2006 completely lost their compass. (Go, Obama!!!!) So who the f*ck knows what they will do? (Go, Obama!!!!) If they broker a deal for Clinton in the face of her losses at the primary, I hope the country EXPLODES! As well it should. Super-deligates, my ass!!!! (Go, Obama!!!!)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:44 AM on 02/13/2008
- naturesway I'm a Fan of naturesway 12 fans permalink

you hope the country explodes!!!Trilby?
That is just sickening. But it does explain all this talk of hope and change.
Hope that the country explodes and a change to war in the streets?
I hope that greater minds prevail.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:17 AM on 02/13/2008
- eej I'm a Fan of eej 8 fans permalink

I hope the MSM is right on this one, but I'm sick of the MSM deciding these things before they are over.

We are the voters. Not the media. They should shut up and let democracy work.

Something went wrong when the MSM decided they needed to do more than report the news. I blame 24/7 television: they feel they have to feel every moment with their drivel, er, commentary.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:29 AM on 02/13/2008
- naschkatze I'm a Fan of naschkatze 113 fans permalink

I was stuck watching CNN last night because we don't get MSNBC. In spite of Obama's recent victories, CNN refuses to acknowledge that Obama has momentum (with the exception of Donna Brazile) and I'd bet that Clinton had more air time than Obama. According to CNN, any state Obama wins is not important; only the states Clinton wins are.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:52 AM on 02/13/2008

Every outlet other than MSNBC has the delegate count wrong. Which sort of gives the lie to the claim that the MSM is pro-Obama.

The reason this is important is that they can only overturn the election if people don't realize they're doing it. If you show Obama up by over 100 delegates (which he is, at the moment), you can't then emerge from the convention declaring Clinton the winner, but you can if you already mix in the super delegates in the delegate counts. Makes it seem much closer than it actually is.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:59 AM on 02/13/2008

eej; well spoken. The voters and no one elde should be in command. 1776

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:21 AM on 02/13/2008

eej;oops meant else not elde 1776

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:22 AM on 02/13/2008

Obama possesses characteristics in a unique harmony seldom seen in history. Imagination and reality join in him to determine the goals and methods of political policy. His contemporaries are constantly astonished and amazed by seeing how he brilliantly brings goals and methods together to influence history. He has no stubborn ideas, no tired tactical doctrines, to dim his vision and reduce his political imagination. His inflexible principles are joined with changing and flexible political methods that have lead to the greatest and most unexpected successes.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:11 AM on 02/13/2008
- naturesway I'm a Fan of naturesway 12 fans permalink

He's going to need all that glitter when he takes over during a time of failing economies, rising unemployment and the catastrophic effects of global climate change. All of those problems will be his. He will own them and the country will not think well if he fails to fix everything as he promises.
Somebody is going to be left holding the bag. It may as well be Obama. Go Obama.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:20 AM on 02/13/2008

Hi RD, apologies for tracking you down via profiles, but I wanted to add a thought (per FISA string yesterday) about "standing."

Per FISA string, current comment p4:

"Why do you need standing to demonstrate before the court that your rights have been VIOLATED, when the government so much as admits said right has already been STRIPPED.

I don't get the subtlety.

If it is suddenly legal to stick a hot poker up rolling's tailpipe, should rolling have to wait to get reamed before appealing to the court for protection?"
-- RIMR

Apologies for the crassness too. Cheers.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:24 AM on 02/13/2008

Standing does not mean a person must have actually been harmed, it means a plaintiff challenging the constitutionality of a law can demonstrate that the plaintiff is or WILL BE harmed by the law. The party suing must have something to lose in order to sue unless they have automatic standing by action of law. So far, those opposed to the law have not been able to find a single US citizen who can demonstrate he is or WILL BE harmed by the law. So as I keep asking, if this law is so obviously unconstitutional why, with all the resources of the left, can't those opposed to the law find a single person with legal standing?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:32 PM on 02/13/2008

Back on topic:

rollingdivision is playing mind games.

rollingdivision is on record here at HuffPo supporting warrantless wiretapping, torture, and in general, toes a Republican line -- hardly the swooning Obamamania type.

rollingdivision lives in fear of Hillary, and moreover, Hillary cleaning ANY Republican's clock and becoming President.

Examples from
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/users/profile/rollingdivision :

"AP Confirms Secret Camp Inside Gitmo
In a world with limited resources, there is no desire to spend time, money, effort and political capital on the wrong people (innocents). There is absolutely no upside in it for the politicians to lock up unknown innocent people in GITMO. posted 02/07/2008 at 07:28:40

and

"Well, when the new Democratic president is sworn in she can empty GITMO.
posted 02/06/2008 at 20:23:33 "

"CIA: Waterboarding Used On Only 3 Detainees
No different than having a police sniper shot and kill someone holding hostages when they get the shot. It's done without a warrant, without a subpoena, without a court order, without a trial and only because it is thought innocent lives at in jeopardy. After all other means have been exhausted, torture with a warrant and court hearing and review and a court order under extreme circumstances should be allowed if it innocent lives are in jeopardy. posted 02/06/2008 at 14:18:22
In the extreme circumstances, torture is the not only acceptable, it is the morally required. "

But on some things, we DO agree:
"Fed President "Not Confident" Recession Avoidable
It's the normal business cycle. Let it work through the system. We've never prevented a recession, though we have done things which may have affected the length of some recessions. So don't pass the $168 BILLION (or so) "Stimulus" bill. More properly known as the "buying votes with borrowed money" bill. posted 02/08/2008 at 09:56:13 "

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:36 PM on 02/13/2008

An observation and prediction. Hillary will get the nomination. Notice I didn't say "win". Hillary feels that she is entitled and has paid her dues. Whatever it takes, she will do it. She already has Chelsea working the superdelegates and Bill under wraps. Even if it causes civil war at the convention, she will secure what she feels is due her. Hopefully whichever candidate lands the majority of votes will win, whichever one it is. But, as in Mich. and Fla., Hillary has proven she will break any rule to try to get an edge on her "destiny". This is a pattern of abuse and disregard that she and campaign have honed and will continue to use for her coronation.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:10 AM on 02/13/2008
- cardtosser I'm a Fan of cardtosser 6 fans permalink
photo

If Hillary sneaks in the FL and MI delegates, the party will be abandoning all fairness in those elections. In MI she was the only Dem. candidate NOT to pull her name from the ballot before the election. In FL she was carried due to her early lead and lack of any campaigning by oppostion candidates.

Either the Dems. will stick with penalizing the state Democratic parties push for early primaries, or they will cave and have a wounded candidate in November.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:04 PM on 02/13/2008

Don't shoot the messenger.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:48 AM on 02/13/2008

guero; If you are not part of the solution, then you are part of the problem. this includes MSM. 1776

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:24 AM on 02/13/2008
- larry278 I'm a Fan of larry278 50 fans permalink

Slick Willy & W paraphrase Grantland Rice to say, Win if you can, loose if you must but cheat like hell so you'll win. Her Hillaryship may not be listening to Slick Willy or the old dodges Willy & W use aren't working for her Hillaryship.
I guess that I'll adapt to having a POTUS who is posessed by the pathological condition of honesty. It will be different.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:44 AM on 02/13/2008
- Ginzaman I'm a Fan of Ginzaman 12 fans permalink

So following Fineman's MSM logic, since Hillary has no realistic chance of beating Obama, does this mean that she's now "a non-viable" candidate? When this happened to Gravel and Kucinich the MSM destroyed them. Racist Ron Paul is "non-viable." But the MSM can still get some ratings out of him. So they keep him around as the token long-shot? Will they dare to blackball Hillary?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:21 AM on 02/13/2008
- Ping I'm a Fan of Ping 63 fans permalink

"So following Fineman's MSM logic"

Not logic, but cold hard MATH. The fact is that she cannot catch up unless she starts winning 60-40. The nomination is now slipping beyond her grasp.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:21 AM on 02/13/2008

In pledged delegates, she can still win with the superdelegates - it'll be rough, but here's hoping.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:27 AM on 02/13/2008

At that point I don't think it would be a prize worth winning. The upshot of having the first woman and the first African American running against each other is that it keeps either from gaming things too much - the symbolism is just way too ugly.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:17 PM on 02/13/2008
- MNmommy I'm a Fan of MNmommy 420 fans permalink
photo

Are you honestly suggesting that the MSM will give up their meal ticket? Where would they be if they couldn't spew venom against the Clintons 24/7?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:45 AM on 02/13/2008

A lot of folks are going to be really sorry if they don't SHUT UP AND LET THE REST OF US

VOTE!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:43 AM on 02/13/2008
- eliandbo I'm a Fan of eliandbo 2 fans permalink

Does any senator know what forth admendment is and what it means?
It means you have to have a Warrant supported by probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation.
please read it.
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:56 AM on 02/13/2008
- eliandbo I'm a Fan of eliandbo 2 fans permalink

Why would any thinking Democrat vote for a Clinton, after the Clintons gave us NAFTA and Most Favored Nation Treaty and sent the good paying factory jobs to Mexico and to Communist China?
Are the middle class people totally stupid?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:03 AM on 02/13/2008
- JUSTME I'm a Fan of JUSTME 17 fans permalink

Moreover, why would any Democrat vote for this particular Clinton after she's shown that she can't manage her own campaign staff, pick compentent professionals, and keep track of her financial affairs? Sounds like another Bush in the making to me, another "heckuva job, Brownie" waiting to happen.

She did not look good last night in El Paso. There was something very forced about her. She knows it ain't happening; that IT is not hers for the taking. Would she ever step aside for the good of the party or the good of the nation? I strongly doubt it because this race is all about Hillary for Hillary and she has no interest in anything but her own ambitions.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:30 AM on 02/13/2008

She will win, the election is rigged.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:40 AM on 02/13/2008
- BikerJim I'm a Fan of BikerJim 3 fans permalink

You mean she will STEAL the election. I don't think so, but that is the only way that she will get the nomination.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:41 AM on 02/13/2008

Urban areas have turned out like NEVER before for Obama. They want Obama, and we've been good to Democrats. Any claim the Goldwater Girl makes to her turn, is countered by ours. There haven't been a more faithfull base for Democrats than urban centers, and we've been shafted for it.

This is an urban/suburban divide, and the Corporate media will NEVER discuss that. We are to be silent as children watching the "Grown ups" talk about how to screw us some more, while they say "Maybe next time will be your turn."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:55 AM on 02/13/2008
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