Will You Cash Out Before The Market Crashes?

Who cares? If you're a tried and true bible punching born againer you're just waiting with your tongue hanging out for the Rapture. That's why with such a base of voters and being similarly inclined,the Bush Administration has a tendency to not get serious and just let things go. I would'nt have believed mature,intelligent people could ever think this way until I saw a documentary a few years ago about the evangelical religious right and their fanatical beliefs and thinking. These events are all foretold and will happen despite what you try to do about them,so why bother? That's the scary part.

If you really sit back and think about this problem, it mostly has to do with credit problems. And these all started to happen not long after our wonderful representatives in Washington performed on of their most destructive corporate biddings since Nafta, and passed the bankruptcy reform bill. Because this bill gives borrowers no way out no matter what the situation is, loans were forcefully and deceptively pushed on middle class and poor people all over the country. Granted, buyer beware should be at the forefront of everyones mind when considering anything like a loan, we know that many Americans are the sharpest tool in the shed. ( just consider the people they vote for ) SO you have a whole bunch of not particularly smart people, with some very unethical and greedy people, pushing the dream deal to them knowing the borrowers dont have much of a chance of walking from a loan no matter how crooked or deceptive they were when pushing the loan. From the low life Loan Officer and their encouraging brokers, to the largest corporations who welcomed these deals and the investment firms who knowingly pushed these crooked and unstable mortgage deals to the world market.

I can only speak from past experience in similar events , like the .com bust, but if your a Merrill Lynch client it wont matter how much you beg and plead with them to move your money to a safer place or pull it out of stocks altogether.
They will ignore you, do whatever they want to, collect fees and charges on all your losses, and in the end , they will say it was your fault because you didnt tell them exactly where to move the money to. I learned a very very expensive lesson back then. Financial advisor's are not there to advise you in what is best for you. In fact, they could care less about you. It is your money they want, and being as you hired them, you have showed them you dont know that much about how the market works, so you are very easy to manipulate, and basically, they rob you blind. They know you would not hire an adviser if you knew how to do your own investing. And they use that fact to make themselves wealthy on your losses.
Since then I decided to learn at least enough so I am not dependent on a back stabbing low life bottom feeding scum of the earth financial adviser or financial investment firm.

It is almost funny. First a dishonest rating company called Moodys rated the subprime AAA for Golmand Sachs and the other dishonest brokerages. The dishonest brokerage subprime players are dealing with the dishonest insurers who have already declared themselves unable to pay off the sub prime.

Well, we have a prediction, and it doesn't look good.

According to LEAP/E2020, the end of the third trimester will mark a new inflection point in the development of the systemic global crisis. By this time, the cumulative impact of the different strands of the crisis (see table below) will reach maximum strength and affect the heart of the systems involved in a decisive manner, led by the United States as the epicenter of the crisis.

In the US, this new inflection point will translate into the collapse of the real economy, the final socio-economic stage of the bursting of the series of the housing and financial bubbles (1) and the continuation of the fall in the value of the Dollar. The collapse of the real US economy represents simply the almost complete halt of the American economic machinery: private and public bankruptcies in great number, wide ranging closures of enterprises and public services (2),...

table:

http://bp0.blogger.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/R7c0vR4aALI/AAAAAAAAAKs/FyuqGIyJwbE/s1600-h/GEAB1.2.jpg

Well at least they give us until September ... maybe ...

Never has there been so much danger to our finances. You buy bonds and you are probably buying some cdo/cbo subprime bonds rated AAA deceptively by Moodys. They are supposed to be insured, but the insurers spent the premiums and now they are almost broke. They can't take care of all of the sub prime loans.

The money market has subprime AAA bonds rated by Moodys and some cdos/cbos, too. It looks like they have put some in every place, so we could all bear the pain. The republican conservatives only like to share the pain and the costs, but not the profits.

The money markets in the 401ks are not insured, but we have been told that the brokerage won't touch our principal. Each dollar will stay worth a dollar. The interest rates won't beat inflation much longer.

We can put our money in international funds, but the sub prime has been exported over there, too. Maybe their insurers kept enough to pay off subprime, though. Who knows?

We can buy large cap US funds because they sell lots of exports overseas, but the overseas companies aren't buying as much because we aren't importing as much.

Has it hit you yet? Failed policies have made it almost impossible to do anything financially safely. The republicans have done it their way. They had the house, the senate and the presidency until last November. The Democrats have pretty much given in to anything they wanted. Their policies have
FAILED. They have fallen on their own swords.

Except they haven't really failed themselves, they got out at the peak and they have made a fortune getting us in this mess.

When Paulson struts in front of the Senate Finance Committee, why don't they ask him about the billion he made last year, off of sub prime loans when he worked at Goldman Saks? Instead they listen to him with respect.

We need some long perk walks for the sub prime bandits. They need to pay for their mistakes that enriched them and hurt the rest of us.

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Cashing out is for pussies.
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The Author asks; Will You Cash Out Before The Market Crashes?

Not unless you pull out by 9:35 AM on Monday.
This is going all of the way down.
Then what'll you have anyway? Still fluctuating Dollars which can drop in value at anyone's whim. Tell me what I should do, then I'll filter it through what I've already planned.

What do you think would happen if everyone, for the next 8 months stopped reading the newspapers and listening to broadcasts and just spent that time putting their noses to the grindstone and not worrying about the sky falling?
I'm no expert in this area, but from what I've gleaned the housing crisis WILL end, flow of credit WILL return to normal and the slow economy WILL keep inflation in check. Earnings will take a hit for a while, but profits WILL return. I guess that sounds simple, but I prefer trying to simplify my life and I've also learned not to worry about things that I have no control over. We have to just weather the storm. We've endured 8 years of Bush...we can endure anything!!!!

`
more "buy & hold" crap.
in Aug.2000, the S&P-500 peaked at 1517.
in Sep.2002, the S&P-500 bottomed at 815.
a decline of 22%.
in May.2007, the S&P-500 reached 1530.
so for almost 7-years, if you held Vanguard's Index 500 fund,
you didn't make any money.
and if you had to sell during the seven years
to pay for college or buy a used toyota,
you lost money.
all the brokers tell you "buy & hold" bc they are
lazy, incompetent or both.
"buy & hold" is a suckers game.
YOU CAN MAKE MONEY DURING A RECESSION.
fire your broker, switch to a non-Load firm
and follow the Morningstar site ETFs.
you will see that buys like:
DBA, up 39% since 9-Oct.07
SLV, up 26% since 9-Oct.07
DBC, up 23% since 9-Oct.07
GLD, up 22% since 9-Oct.07
MYY, up 14% since 9-Oct.07
and for the conservative investor:
TIP, up 6.3% since 9-Oct.07
TLT, up 4.3% since 9-Oct.07
.... WILL MAKE YOU MONEY ....
then when the recovery comes,
play the ETFs that begin to take off during the good times.
.... BULLYA, & HAPPY TRADING ....
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Just a note. Those in "cash" need to keep in mind that the money market fund that they've parked their money in may not be FDIC insured. Though their charter may dictate only AAA short term investments we all know that means nothing. Money market funds try to maintain their shares at $1.00 but this is NOT guaranteed. Those funds that ONLY invest in very short term Government or Agency Notes at least have the power of the presses behind them. You will be able to get out what you put in, whether it has any value is another issue. Likewise with FDIC insured accounts. If you haven"t checked what your fund is allowed to invest in do so, do it now. Even funds that exclusively invest in Treasury or Agency Notes may lose some value if interest rates rise. The longer the maturity, the greater the risk of loss. Think return OF capital rather than return ON capital. Just because it"s not in stocks doesn"t mean it"s without risk.

Well, if one has the bulk of their retirement savings in the equity markets, and are over 60 and planning to retire at 65, better prepare for a rough ride. With interest rates dropping, cash may mean losing a little due to taxes and inflation......but, better to lose a little than a lot. Sure, the stock market will recover, and go higher, but how long will it take to get you even again, let alone ahead?? In your lifetime??

For now, I'm short TLT, SPY, XLF, and IYR and long DBC. If the credit crunch evolves into a deflationary depresssion, I'm gonna cash out, then go long the 2nd Amendment.