Navy missile, shooting down satellite, US Spy Satellite, US spy satellite falling to earth
Navy missile, shooting down satellite, US Spy Satellite, US spy satellite falling to earth

Weather May Delay Satellite Shootdown

ROBERT BURNS | February 20, 2008 05:59 PM EST | AP

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WASHINGTON — The Pentagon counted down Wednesday toward a dramatic nighttime effort to shoot down a dying and potentially deadly U.S. spy satellite, using a souped-up missile fired from a ship in the Pacific. Foul weather threatened to delay the operation.

The timing was tricky. For the best chance to succeed, the military awaited a combination of favorable factors: steady seas around the Navy cruiser that would fire the missile, optimum positioning of the satellite as it passed in polar orbit and the readiness of an array of space- and ground-based sensors to help cue the missile and track the results.

The operation was so extraordinary, with such intense international publicity and political ramifications, that Defense Secretary Robert Gates _ not a military commander _ was to make the final decision to pull the trigger.

The government organized hazardous materials teams, under the code name "Burnt Frost," to be flown to the site of any dangerous or otherwise sensitive debris that might land in the United States or elsewhere.

High seas in the north Pacific posed the first obstacle as the USS Lake Erie prepared to launch a three-stage missile. Beyond a certain point, rough seas can interfere with the cruiser's launch procedures.

The plan was for the SM-3 to soar 130 miles to just beyond the edge of the Earth's atmosphere in an attempt to speed its non-explosive warhead directly into the satellite.

Early in the day, a senior military officer said it didn't look as if the weather would be good enough. That was shortly after the space shuttle Atlantis landed at 9:07 a.m. EST, removing the last safety issue for the military to begin determining the best moment for launch.

Another officer said hours later the weather was improving and might permit a launch by Wednesday night. Or the military could try again on Thursday or any day until about Feb. 29, when the satellite is expected to have re-entered the Earth's atmosphere.

The aim is not just to hit the bus-sized satellite _ which would burn up upon re-entering the atmosphere anyway _ but to obliterate a tank onboard that is carrying 1,000 pounds of hydrazine, a toxic fuel. The fuel, unused because the satellite died shortly after reaching orbit in December 2006 _ could be hazardous if it landed in a populated area.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a health bulletin saying that the health risk from satellite debris was considered to be low. "However, CDC is encouraging health officials and clinicians to review information about the health effects related to hydrazine to prepare in case their communities are affected by satellite debris."

In a routine precaution, notifications have been issued worldwide to mariners and aviators to stay clear of an area in the Pacific where the satellite debris might fall. The military has calculated that the risk to aviation is so low that U.S. and international aviation officials have decided they are probably not going to reroute air traffic, a senior military officer said Wednesday.

The officer briefed reporters at the Pentagon on technical and logistical matters related to the effort. Under ground rules set by the Pentagon, the officer could not be identified by name.

The attempted shootdown, already approved by President Bush, is seen by some as blurring the lines between defending against a hostile long-range missile and targeting satellites in orbit.

Much of the equipment used in the satellite shootdown is part of the Pentagon's missile defense system, a far-flung network of interceptors, radars and communications systems designed primarily to hit an incoming hostile ballistic missile fired at the United States by North Korea. The equipment, including the Navy missile, has never been used against a satellite or other such target.

The three-stage Navy missile, the SM-3, has chalked up a high rate of success in tests since 2002 _ in each case targeting a short- or medium-range missile. A hurry-up program to adapt the missile for this anti-satellite mission was completed in a matter of weeks; Navy officials say the changes will be reversed once this satellite is down.

Some people are skeptical.

"The potential political cost of shooting down this satellite is high," said Laura Grego, an astrophysicist with the Union of Concerned Scientists. "Whatever the motivation for it, demonstrating an anti-satellite weapon is counterproductive to U.S. long-term interests, given that the United States has the most to gain from an international space weapons ban. Instead, it should be taking the lead in negotiating a treaty."

Defense Secretary Gates is being advised directly by Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, commander of U.S. Strategic Command. Gates was traveling to Hawaii on Wednesday to kick off a nine-day trip. Officials said his stop at U.S. Pacific Command was scheduled before it was known that the satellite shootdown could happen while he was there.

The military has hours each day to monitor a long checklist of technical factors and conditions before deciding whether to proceed with the missile launch. But there is a very narrow window _ described by the senior military officers as "tens of seconds" _ in which the missile must be launched in order to have the best chance of having the satellite debris land mainly in the Pacific.

Officials will know within minutes whether the missile has hit the satellite, but it will take a day or two to know whether the fuel tank has been destroyed, officials said.

Left alone, the satellite would be expected to hit Earth during the first week of March. About half of the 5,000-pound spacecraft would be expected to survive its blazing descent through the atmosphere and would scatter debris over several hundred miles.

___

Associated Press writer Pauline Jelinek contributed to this report.


 
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- Dave24 I'm a Fan of Dave24 14 fans permalink
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***It makes you wonder: What if we were attacked during bad weather? It seems this is revealing our weaknesses to the world: if you want to attack, do it in choppy weather.

Nice job, pentagon.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:58 PM on 02/20/2008

The big problem with this showboat production is that it's created 100s more trackable pieces of junk floating around in orbit. The Chinese created over 300 with their shot. Not much of it is coming down in the near future which creates more hazard for future space missions. What a bunch of morons...oh yeah..."toxic fuel"? WTF?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:01 AM on 02/21/2008

Would they nuke it?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:46 PM on 02/20/2008
- Bobleblah1 I'm a Fan of Bobleblah1 21 fans permalink

I have been watching this story from afar, and think its mostly theater.

It seems a little out of the ordinary that the military is making this satellite shoot-down, so public. In my opinion its all military theater for China. Its a case of anything you can do I can do better. The problem is that we don't seem to be doing it better. This is one of many stories you will start to hear about militarization of space. I bet many of you heard about the US choosing not to take part in the international treaty proposed by Russia and China, to limit weapons in space? this comes months after China shot down one of its own satellites, putting the world on notice of its ability to nullify satellite based defense systems. In my opinion, the ability to shoot down satellites is more powerful and smarter than spending yourself into bankruptcy trying to build and launch weaponized satellites into space.

Oh look! we spent $10 trillion on this new gizmo, but the Chinese built another gizmo that cost $50 million that can destroy our $10 trillion gizmo.
Oh well, better luck next time. lets get back to the drawing board and figure out how we can bankrupt America faster with bad ideas and hubris that most likely wont ever benefit the people of the U.S.
Oh! you mean business as usual? yeah!
well.........O.K.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:37 PM on 02/20/2008
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Reassuring to know we have billion dollar defense systems that only work in good weather.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:53 PM on 02/20/2008

My thought exactly. CNN is saying they can't launch because of 8 foot waves. LOL. I guess they didn't think of that.

This really exposes the giveaways that happen to our leaders favorite industries. It doesn't need to work, it just needs to look like it will work so they can bleed our budget dry.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:45 PM on 02/20/2008
- vietveter I'm a Fan of vietveter 23 fans permalink

Who says it even works? "They" will continue to spend money........... because they can.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:27 PM on 02/20/2008

My concentric circles are in place. Use my house as the target bullseye. For the good of the nation, of course, I'll be willing to let them use my property. Send remuneration to:

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:27 PM on 02/20/2008
- rcozad I'm a Fan of rcozad 21 fans permalink

After the Repugs have wasted BILLIONS $$$$ on this stupid missile defense shield we have to insist that the enemy , who ever that is, must first give us advanced warning, and then only attack on a sunny day with the co-ordinates that we supply. Sleep well tonight BLACKWATER is on guard!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:57 PM on 02/20/2008
- Nochnoi I'm a Fan of Nochnoi 130 fans permalink
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I hope they have fun playing with their shiny, pretty missile.... which never really worked correctly in the first place... I am more worried about the missile falling on my head then some broken satellite...

I bet they can't hit something the size of a bus, which is nearly standing still, even on a sunny day...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:10 PM on 02/20/2008

You can view the Aegis Missile Defense Tests at these sites.
www.youtube.com or MySpace, both listed as FTM-13
Hardly the "never really worked" you were refering to. And FYI, traveling in LEO at several thousand KMs an hour is far from standing still. The Hubble and ISS travel/maintain an orbital speed of approx 7,500 Kms/hr.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:15 PM on 02/20/2008

Strategic Missile Defense against ICBMs does not, and can never work. That's why we abandoned it in the 80's. This is no big secret - it's been a well-known fact for years. I won't bother explaining why, because I get the impression that you won't bother to read about it anyway.

The information is readily available on the internet. Google "MIRV".

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:34 PM on 02/20/2008

Wow now we're safe on clear days!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:56 AM on 02/20/2008
- rodeman I'm a Fan of rodeman 3 fans permalink

My thoughts exactly cryingeagle. I'm certainly glad the spy satellite is not a nuclear tipped ICBM from wherever. "We wanted to shoot it down but the damn seas were just to rough" Sorry bout that......(pick a major city)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:05 PM on 02/20/2008
- Felicty I'm a Fan of Felicty 31 fans permalink
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I said yesterday that Bush has at LEAST ONE major fuckup left in him before his reign expires, and this might be it.

Everybody find something sturdy to hide under...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:37 AM on 02/20/2008

Maine songwriter offers song-and-dance alternative to "Satellite Turkey Shoot":

Missle, Schmissle! The best way to avoid debris from the de-orbiting U.S. spy satellite is with this song!

http://www.soundclick.com/bands/default.cfm?band ID=170140
(Please click on "SATELLITE HOP", "hi fi").

Song introduces the "S.P.L.A.T." debris-dodging, aerobic civil defense technique ("Satellite Protective Leaping Avoidance Technique"). Learn it today! Good luck! Buy a helmet! .... and a titanium umbrella!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:45 AM on 02/20/2008
- BOBZILLA I'm a Fan of BOBZILLA 9 fans permalink

How fun it will be when we spend a gazillion dollars on a "Star Wars" missile defense system only to ask North Korea, or China (or whomever)to please attack us ONLY when the weather is clear and the seas calm.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:36 AM on 02/20/2008

Over 57 BILLION DOLLARS and we get the "Sunny Calm Day Defense System" . . . can't we do what every U.S. Business does and outsouce this to India . . . or China and save a BUNCH?

another Bush Legacy . . . better hope Warren Terra or Terry Ista launches slow moving buses at us only in nice weather with a couple months warning . . .

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:05 PM on 02/20/2008
- Bozwellian I'm a Fan of Bozwellian 34 fans permalink

and that China has ALREADY proven IT can shoot down a satelite ....mmm, this "story" just not seem to be something we should be hanging PRIDE about....!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:01 PM on 02/20/2008
- Dendroica I'm a Fan of Dendroica 30 fans permalink

Well...

They've already proven they can destroy one of their birds in orbit. Was it a shoot-down, or an internal explosion, we really don't know.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:25 PM on 02/20/2008

Sorry folks,this big life or death event posed by the "Killer" satellite will have to be postponed due to wind and waves. Are they serious?If this is really a weapons test then China and Russia must be laughing thier asses off.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:57 AM on 02/20/2008

The headline should read: U.S tells world "Please don't attack us if it's cloudy".

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:05 AM on 02/20/2008
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One question I have is with their stated three outcomes:

1) Complete miss, but they have more time for a follow up attempt, and if they miss that time to it will still mostly burn up in the atmosphere however some debris does have a chance of raining down toxic chemicals. The same as if they did nothing.

2)Near Hit, the craft is not damaged but its trajectory changes. They have more time for a followup strike.

3) Successful Hit, Craft is destroyed entirely upon entry.

My Question is with regards to outcome #2, Near Hit. Have they considered if they knock it into a different trajectory with the first strike and then miss it with the second and it ends up coming down in a populated metro, would it not be their errant strike that caused it to do this?

They say there is nothing to fear, that they cannot make the outcome any worse but in above scenario they just did.

final thought - If these satellites can pose such a risk why is there not a self destruct on them?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:42 AM on 02/20/2008

First, you can't "knock it into a different trajectory" that's Star Trek stuff.
Second, this satellite went stupid (completely non-responsive) minutes after launch, hence what good is a self-distruct device (if it even had one on the bird itself and not the rocket) if you can't turn it on?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:51 AM on 02/20/2008
- BeyondKen I'm a Fan of BeyondKen 4 fans permalink
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The 'self-destruct' device would automatically detonate unless it received a disarm command.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:27 AM on 02/20/2008

Of course you can "knock it into a different trajectory. Any bump at all would do exactly that. It may not be a better trajectory, in that you may cause it to land somewhere you'd rather it didn't, but it is still a different trajectory than the one it would have traveled had you not hit it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:28 AM on 02/20/2008
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I hear there is no warhead on the SM3 which makes sense because there is not much atmosphere up there and the explosion would just be consumed by the partial vacuum. So it is a collision they are shooting for. If that collision happens on the trailing edge of the 'bird' and imparts a rotational force on the bird, that reacts with the low orbit atmosphere thus extending the trajectory is a possibility.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:43 AM on 02/20/2008
- Dendroica I'm a Fan of Dendroica 30 fans permalink

That's the real problem with this satellite. I've got to assume that the electronics are pretty damn fried. Could be something immensely trivial, like a loose connector or a socket. Without instructions, it wouldn't attempt to adjust orbit, so it is more than likely very elliptical. And every time it passes perigee it drags through the atmosphere like a parachute. That would make its course highly subject to change.

It would have been impossible to capture with shuttle, without putting shuttle at severe risk. I'd imagine that it was put at a higher orbit than shuttle (not in terms of altitude, but attitude) so that it could be used to spy on our northerly neighbors in Russia and China. Shuttle generally follows a course that puts it no more than about 40 north. The ISS is at a huge orbit, 51.6 degrees so they've really gotta roll hard to get to it. Takes a lot more fuel.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:21 PM on 02/20/2008

uhm, maybe if physics itself could be considered star trek stuff.

and yes, it had a self destruct command. but the thing is so dead it's not responding.

now, what I want to know is, if they've known the thing's been "braindead" since 2006, why are we only hearing/caring about it NOW, a week or two before earth's about to have a flaming fucking bus full of toxic fuel crash into its face?

why isn't this a bigger deal? holy FUCK.

ria

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:11 PM on 02/20/2008
- Irons I'm a Fan of Irons 2 fans permalink

Watch for a NEWS BLACKOUT when US military misses target.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:41 AM on 02/20/2008

change the missle coordinates, home in on the white house.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:40 AM on 02/20/2008

This has international incident written all over it.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:27 AM on 02/20/2008

That's why they are going to shoot it down. So it DOESN'T become an international incident.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:28 AM on 02/20/2008

And firing a missile at a falling object at the risk of turning 1 falling object into many.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:30 AM on 02/20/2008

It's just another attempt to justify the missile defense program. Of course it looks pretty damn feeble when they have to delay the shoot-down because of the weather.

I sure hope nobody thinks of lobbing ICBMs at us on a rainy day.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:30 AM on 02/20/2008

Is this another episode of "all hat no cattle"?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:09 AM on 02/20/2008

I would agree that it's highly unlikely that the satellite is actually degrading in orbit. Stinks of a weapons test, for sure. Start with the 'there's a problem' two weeks ago, finish with exactly what the Chinese did a year ago.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:02 AM on 02/20/2008
- Dendroica I'm a Fan of Dendroica 30 fans permalink

Huh?

Take any LEO satellite, and permit it to deteriorate its orbit and you've got a 2-10 year window before it falls to earth. The bigger the bird, the less time it'll take.

If they don't shoot it down tomorrow, it'll come down ON ITS OWN in another week or two.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:16 AM on 02/20/2008

Yes, but you won't be able to determine where.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:25 AM on 02/20/2008
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How did it become LEO? hmm ahh that is actually quite convenient since the Chinese were just about to do their own test. I am not saying it is a bad thing, but it is a bit convenient. They need to work on their subterfuge a bit more if this is what in fact it was.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:34 AM on 02/20/2008
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