Vermont Primary: Latest News, Polls On Democratic Race

Vermont Primary: Latest News, Polls On Democratic Race

Huffington Post   |   March 3, 2008 03:26 PM


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******Updated 3/4******

Read HuffPost's OffTheBus Superdelegate Investigation to find out more about the superdelegates who are likely to decide the Democratic nomination for president.

Obama, McCain Win Vermont Easily: The Burlington Free Press reports:

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain swept to easy victories today in Vermont's presidential primary.


Major television networks projected Obama and McCain as the winners just seconds after the polls closed at 7 p.m., basing their predictions on exit polling numbers collected from Vermonters as they left key voting precincts around the state.

Turnout for the primary was described as heavy by election officials around the state. It was unknown in the first hour after the polls closed whether Tuesday vote broke the presidential primary turnout record of 39 percent set in 1980.

Pre-election polls had indicated that Obama and McCain would win the state, but the outcome was being closely watched nationally. Vermont and the three other states with primaries Tuesday -- Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island -- will likely give McCain the GOP nominination outright and could position Obama as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Obama cut into every part of Hillary Clinton's base of supporters, including women, older voters and the working class, according to exit polls conducted for the AP and television networks.

He also won overwhelmingly among voters who thought the Iraq war was the most important issue facing the country, a key factor in Vermont.



Vermont May Be The Most Important State Of The Night

Marc Ambinder:

Why?


Barack Obama will win this Dean-inflection anti-war bastion handily.


Vermont will allocate 10 delegates based on the vote at the congressional district level and award three proportionally according to the statewide vote.


In all likelihood, Obama's delegate margin from Vermont will allow him to end this election night having earned a net of between six and ten delegates.


After the euphoria of potential Clinton popular vote victories in Ohio and Texas fades after 48 hours, the only number that will endure ... will be Obama's delegate margin in Vermont.

Early Exit Polls

Early exit poll data from the AP:

--Two-thirds of Vermont voters found Obama more inspirational than Clinton.
--Roughly six in ten of all Democratic voters said superdelegates should vote based on primaries and caucuses rather than personal opinions of the candidates.
--Four in ten voters in the Vermont Democratic primary were independents.

Read more here.

Deluge Of Ads

With the Democratic race so hotly contested, Vermont has seen its airwaves filled with ads as both Obama and Clinton wage aggressive campaigns in the state, seeking out every delegate they can find:

Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have waged aggressive campaigns in the state, opening storefront offices and sending in paid staff from other primary states to help local volunteer efforts that were already under way.


The two campaigns have filled the state's airwaves with ads. A check of the four leading network television affiliates in Vermont found that Obama's campaign has spent in excess of $360,000 on television ads alone in the last two weeks. Clinton's campaign had spent more than $80,000.

Vermont Town Votes On Bush Indictment (via AP)

Voters in this southern Vermont town were deciding Tuesday whether to approve a measure calling for the indictment of President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney on charges of violating the Constitution.


The symbolic article seeks to have police arrest Bush and Cheney if they ever visit Brattleboro or to extradite them for prosecution elsewhere _ if they're not impeached first.


"Our town attorney has no legal authority to draw up any papers to allow our police officers to do so," said Town Clerk Annette Cappy, "but the gentleman who initiated the petition got the signatures (and) wanted it on the ballot to make a statement."


A steady stream of voters paraded into the Brattleboro Union High School gym to cast their ballots on a day when school board elections and Vermont's presidential primary were also on the slate.

Record Turnout

Vermont Secretary of State Deborah Markowitz expects record turnout in today's Democratic primary:

Vermont Secretary of State Deborah Markowitz said Monday her office has sent out extra ballots to town clerks around the state in anticipation of what she expects will be a record turnout for today's Democratic presidential primary.


"We haven't had such a hotly contested race as this in our presidential primary for a long time," Markowitz said Monday. "Every delegate at this level matters. It's going to be very intense."


Markowitz said she decided early last month to up the number of ballots for the presidential primary by 25 percent after talking to colleagues in other states who told her stories of how they coped with record-breaking turnouts in their primaries.

Vermont Issues

Clinton and Obama discussed Vermont issues on the eve of the state's primary, including the controversial topic of nuclear power:

Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama says he doesn't think aging nuclear power plants like the Vermont Yankee facility in Vernon should have their licenses extended until safety and nuclear waste storage issues are resolved.


"With respect to the plant in Vermont, until we get nuclear safety and storage issues worked out, I don't think we should be focused on the question of extending licenses," Obama said in an interview with The Burlington Free Press...


...Hillary Clinton, in a separate interview, stopped short of calling for a halt in relicensing older plants like Vermont Yankee, but counted herself as a sharp critic of nuclear power.


"I think those issues should be part of the relicensing process," Clinton said, referring to the safety and waste storage issues. "I'm not in favor of automatic relicensing, which is basically what the Nuclear Regulatory Commission does."


Small State, Big Vote

Normally, Vermont receives little attention in presidential politics because the parties' nominees are usually chosen by the time the state holds its primary. This year is different. With Obama and Clinton hunting for delegates wherever they can, Vermont has a new significance:

But in the closest primary campaign in a generation, neither candidate can afford to surrender a single delegate, so both are devoting unprecedented attention to New England's smallest states...


...The Clinton camp has nine staffers there and is hosting phone-banking parties; Chelsea Clinton dropped by the University of Vermont in Burlington on Friday; and the campaign even sent a delegation of farmers from New York state across the border to talk with their Vermont neighbors about agricultural policy.


But Vermonters' excitement about Obama seems positively feverish. Hundreds of canvassers went door-to-door over the weekend. Staffers drove around in a couple of trucks, donated by Ben & Jerry's founders, decorated with a giant O and a picture of a cow. When the campaign recently asked Deb Shumlin, a jewelry-maker and the wife of state Senate President Peter Shumlin, to organize a small audience in Putney to listen to Anthony Lake, a former national security adviser to President Bill Clinton and now an Obama foreign policy adviser, the aim was to get 25 people. Shumlin was astounded when 325 people showed up.

---

Polls

The latest Rasmussen Poll for the Vermont Democratic primary has Obama leading Clinton, 57% to 33%:

In Vermont, Barack Obama holds a commanding twenty-four point lead over Hillary Clinton with just over a week to go before the Primary. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama with 57% of the vote while Clinton attracts only 33%.

Read here for more polls from Vermont.

---

Voting Its Own Way

Vermont has always liked to thumb its nose at the establishment, and TIME takes a look at the state's history of independent voting:

There are swing states. There are bellwether states. And then there is Vermont.


The Green Mountain State was once an independent republic, and it still goes its own way; a 2007 statewide poll found 13% support for secession. Vermont was the only state to support the Anti-Masonic ticket in 1832, the only state except Utah to go for President Taft in 1912, the only state except nearby Maine to oppose President Roosevelt in 1936. No one has ever claimed that as Vermont goes, so goes the nation. So on Tuesday, when Vermont's voters go to the polls, the world will be watching -- Texas and Ohio.


That makes sense. Vermont has only 625,000 residents, and they aren't wrestling with most of the problems that are dominating the campaign. Vermont doesn't have many immigrants; it ranks last in the nation in foreclosures; it's consistently rated the healthiest state. But if the politics of Vermont doesn't tell us much about the politics of America, it is still quirky and intriguing.

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Delegates And Superdelegates

One local paper breaks down the way Vermont apportions its delegates and superdelegates:

The Green Mountain State will send both regu-lar Democratic delegates - party activists pledged to the will of the voters who cast ballots in the primary - and super delegates, statewide Democratic elected officials and party insiders who are not obligated to follow the popular vote.


In Vermont there are 16 regular delegates and seven super delegates. Those regular delegates are divided into 10 who are elected by district, three at-large delegates from across the state and, in a strange twist, one "mini super" delegate who is chosen like a regular delegate but can decide on their own who to support at the convention.


Most of the state's seven Democratic super delegates are supporting Obama, or leaning in his direction. Only one, Billi Gosh, has promised to support Clinton at the Democratic National Convention this summer. And one of the state's super delegates, former Gov. Howard Dean, is remaining neutral as the head of the Democratic National Committee.


All of this matters this year. If the race between Obama and Clinton remains as close as it is - and that is a big if - there is a chance Vermonters could help decide the nomination.

---
Vermont And Howard Dean

One famous Vermonter is Howard Dean, now head of the Democratic National Committee, and Dean might be in the position to increase Vermont's influence in selecting the Democratic presidential nominee:

Super delegate Dean, as the head of his party, has also chosen some members of the DNC's Credentials Committee, including several of his old friends and allies from Vermont. That is the group that may be called on to decide whether Florida and Michigan delegates get to play a role after all. Those states' primaries were declared invalid after they moved them too early in the year.

---

Vermont Primary Facts And Figures

U.S News & World Report
has a nice primer on Vermont's primary, including past winners, 2008 registration data, exit polling data from the 2004 election, and more. They also have "3 things you didn't know about the Vermont primaries." Here's one of them:

Michael Dukakis won the Vermont Democratic primary by a large margin in 1988. However, the contest was nonbinding--delegates would actually be determined a month later, in the party's caucuses. In the intervening weeks, Jesse Jackson made a strong challenge, ultimately winning just enough of the local contests to put him ahead in the caucus tally. At one caucus meeting, tensions were so high that Jackson supporter and independent Bernie Sanders, then mayor of Burlington (and a current Vermont senator), was slapped in the face by a party member who had questioned his right to participate.

 
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- MichelleB I'm a Fan of MichelleB 7 fans permalink

Obama needs to throw the Kitchen sink at Hillary now, if not, he is finished. She is ugly, and deserves to be fought in kind.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:51 AM on 03/05/2008

Sources inside the both campaigns say that Obama has locked down the Ben vote, but the all important Jerry vote is too close to call.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:26 PM on 03/04/2008
- dahlenu I'm a Fan of dahlenu 4 fans permalink

I suspect that once again Hillary will make the mistake of ignoring smaller states. Let's say she wins Ohio 55-45 and Texas is tied (1-3 points difference), losing big in Vermont may give Obama the most delegates this Tuesday. It's just speculation, but since this has happened so many times before, I wouldn't be surprised. She wins big states barely, but loses smaller states big, so in the end Obama gets more delegates!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:10 PM on 03/04/2008
- bookon I'm a Fan of bookon 2 fans permalink

Actully Chelsea came here to VT and no one of note from the Obama Campain did. I voted for Obama, so this isn't a HillShill or anything.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:57 PM on 03/04/2008
- Groobiecat I'm a Fan of Groobiecat 10 fans permalink

Mmm, that's not true: Anthony Lake, Clinton's former National Security Adviser came to Putney 10 days ago. Several hundred people showed up. Perhaps the Obama folks should have done more to advertise it, though...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:54 PM on 03/04/2008
- sammy333 I'm a Fan of sammy333 4 fans permalink

Modern nuclear power seems to be the safest scalable source of energy. Period. Japan, France and many other countries, embraced if 40 years ago and it satisfies their needs. The rest is dirty politics and nonsense mongering. Lessons from the Chernobyl disaster have been learned, plus he oil spills do not seem to deter us from using oil or gasoline based cars.

However, the real PRIMARY issue is not immigration or nuclear power, it is to which extend the candidate is controlled by the evil forces who write the todo list for both republicans and democrats. Clinton in 2008 is obedient, she has learned her lesson. That is why she voted with Bush on the key points of the evil todo list. The specific policies are secondary.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:49 PM on 03/04/2008
- Groobiecat I'm a Fan of Groobiecat 10 fans permalink

Mmm, yeah, "seems" is the operative word there; it's safe and scalable..­.until it's not. As it is, there was a collapse within the Vermont Yankee plant last August:

Vermont Yankee Officials are Baffled by Cooling Tower Collapse
http://www.timesargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/articlee?AID=/20070825/NEWS01/708250359/1002/NEWS01)

Now, maybe you don't live within a few miles of a nuclear power plant, and maybe you do (like I do), but the fact of the matter is that corporations tend to muck things up, in general, as they cut corners on safety to save money and ensure big fat paychecks for their execs--whether it's keeping a known alcoholic in the captain's chair of the Exxon Valdez or scratching their heads over why a cooling tower collapsed at Vermont Yankee. No way this old thing should be relicensed until it can be proven to be safe.

As for "politics and nonsense mongering," well, that's just nonsense mongering. If you think nuclear power rawks, you need to see this documentary: Chernobyl Heart. It refers to a condition that afflicts the people who live in the radius of the Chernobyl catastrophe, and it's one of the most depressing films I've ever seen. At least the oil will be cleared up eventually (as evil as that is), but with nukes, that @#$@% stays around forever:

http://www.hbo.com/docs/programs/chernobylheart/index.html

Until the people who run nuclear power in this country can prove that they can do it safely, I'm skeptical at best. And that's not mongering, that's just common sense...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:02 PM on 03/04/2008
- bookon I'm a Fan of bookon 2 fans permalink

I love living in VT. I moved here from NH and two states could NOT be more different. Except for the LOOOOOOONG winters it's paradise.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:59 AM on 03/04/2008

Vermont is a state that nominated a dude named Fred Tuttle to the U.S. Senate. He was urged to run, to keep out a multi-millionaire carpetbagger named Jack McMullen. Then Hillary comes into New York as a carpetbagger, and wins. Vermonters won't trust someone like her. Realize that to be considered a "real Vermonter" you have to have a 4-generation legacy here.

We're also very progressive, and smart. Too smart to vote for Hillary.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:36 AM on 03/04/2008
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Over 50% of the residential property in Vermont is owned by Rich NEW YORKERS as a second home. They are as free and independent as New Hampshire. (which ain't much)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:19 AM on 03/04/2008

care to give a link to your stats?

I doubt you will, because they're a lie.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:37 AM on 03/04/2008
- Groobiecat I'm a Fan of Groobiecat 10 fans permalink

Hmmm, naturallight, you "sound" angry, but it's hard to pinpoint exactly, um, *what* your anger is about. There are a lot of 2nd homeowners here in VT, that's true, but yes, AK's right: what's your source? And more specifically, how does this influence anything regarding "freedom and independence"? In fact, isn't it the right of Americans to buy property wherever they're legally able?

As for independence, Vermont is the only state with several towns voting to impeach Bush--which should be the job of the Democratically controlled Congress. At least Vermonters have stood up to publicly express their outrage, however symbolically, at the imperial presidency of George Bush. Can your hometown say the same?

Not sure what the point of your post is, to be honest, but you might consider some nice herbal tea, and cut back a bit on the caffeine..­..

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:30 PM on 03/04/2008
- kat7 I'm a Fan of kat7 permalink

Michelle Obama: "For the first time in my adult life, I am really proud of my country. ".
This women is toxic for America. That's why Mr. Obama will loose today.

You can not blame America and cash in $360,000.0­0 annual paycheck.

Sorry, Michelle Obama lost this election for Barack.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:11 AM on 03/04/2008

Now this is good. I am so grateful there are thinking people out there in the world. Reading these posts on this website is truly depressing with the exception of this one. Thank you thank you thank you

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:29 AM on 03/04/2008

oh. Mr. Obama will "loose"

Perhaps.

But Hillary will LOSE.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:37 AM on 03/04/2008
- Groobiecat I'm a Fan of Groobiecat 10 fans permalink

Pride and monetary gain are two separate, independent issues--they're not one and the same. Are you proud that we're in Iraq? Are you proud that the US is gutting international conventions on human rights? Are you proud of George Bush's legacy? You can make a good salary in this country, and still be disappointed at its direction.

As for losing? I don't think so. Over 1,000,000 people who have donated to Barack's campaign are indicating that they don't think he's a loser. That's 1 in 13 people in this country who believe that the country is broken and needs someone to help fix it.

You think Michelle Obama is toxic? What's toxic is people's inaction to remove the people in the White House today. What's toxic is the lack of outrage at 1,000,000 dead as a result of your and my "tax dollars at work" in Iraq. What's toxic is how health care is really only for those who can afford it, not for all who need it because our priorities are egregiously misplaced. What's toxic is that the average college student leaves school with tens of thousands in debt. Many of those people live in Vermont are sick of this head in the sand, arrogant approach to domestic and foreign policy, but there are *many many* more in all the other states.

You're outraged at a comment made by Michelle Obama? I think you need to redirect your outrage where it really belongs--not in a single, bullet point comment taken out of context.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:53 AM on 03/04/2008
- Mojane I'm a Fan of Mojane 11 fans permalink

I'm not proud of my country either, at least my government. In my 65 years, there has been little to be proud of as far as our government and it's policies go. I white. So, Michelle Obama being a black woman in this country has even less to be proud of in terms of what our government has done since she was born.

She and I can love our country and be grateful for being born here and have been given the opportunities that we have and still not be proud of our government. The response before mine says it much better than mine.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:23 PM on 03/04/2008

Yes...we may be quirky but that's great. Vermont is a place where all politics is local and open to all. The Vermont Democrats and Republicans may not agree but are able to engage in civilized informed debate and reach solutions.­.in time.. :-) . Our political processes here are quite transparent compared to most. It's hard to be subversive when everyone knows everyone. :-)

Ironically, I am a Volvo-driving, sushi-eating, New York Times-reading, Hollywood-loving Vermonter.­..but...I drink dark roast coffee made via the french press method & no body piercings. (ref: Famous anti-Howard Dean political ad from Iowa 2004 primary, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4-vEwD_7Hk , it still makes me laugh and quite sad. Vermont is still basically a rural agricultural state, just trying to get by like everyone else while helping others if we can. )

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:06 AM on 03/04/2008

Quirky is a good thing JohnCV !! Quirky to me means people are independent thinkers. Didn't know much about Vermont until recently, sounds like a great place! I suspect people live longer in Vermont.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:14 PM on 03/04/2008
- Seafarer61 I'm a Fan of Seafarer61 7 fans permalink

Anyone attempting to gauge the national "mood" by what the Green Mountain State offers probably has never lived there. I spent a decade in Burlington­...Vermont­ers march to their own drum politically and you couldn't possibly have scripted a candidate more appealing to them than Obama, the new kid on the block. He is their new darling.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:00 AM on 03/04/2008

How true... is Senator Obama Vermont's new darling? I don't know about "darling".­..but he will do very well in the primary today relative to Senator Clinton. There is *a lot* of positive energy for Obama. and their campaign has been very active here while the Clinton campaign never seemed to actually appear. A simple example, each Obama campaign calls to our house was an actual human being while the Clinton campaign only contacted us via a "robocall" (yeech & tacky...we are a retail politics state...ba­rely more than 600,000 people in the state.... meet-ups are still happening here...all of the time...)

Interestingly, McCain was the only actual candidate to physically land in Vermont this season. Usually, no ones drops by. ;-) Our stock is rising. :-)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:18 AM on 03/04/2008
- Groobiecat I'm a Fan of Groobiecat 10 fans permalink

Right! And the donation breakdown tells the story, as well: ~$500K for Barack; just over $50K for Hillary. Vermonters are also some of the only people who (at least in my little town of Brattleboro) have publicly expressed outrage about the Bush administration through town initiatives: Impeachment and arrests for Bush and Cheney. It's worth noting that VT is the only state that Bush hasn't visited! Yay! :D

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:00 PM on 03/04/2008
- doneflyin I'm a Fan of doneflyin 31 fans permalink

What's the true story on the Reuters poll???

Morning Joe issued a correction about 2 hours ago on that poll saying they got it wrong and that the poll was Obama 47% and Clinton 46%.
They inverted the names by accident.

So what is it?? Anybody know?

Scarborough must have gotten new marching orders from the "Establishment" because he went on a rant against Obama and ended it by saying he was supporting Clinton.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:54 AM on 03/04/2008
- doneflyin I'm a Fan of doneflyin 31 fans permalink

Good grief! I need a proof reader!
47%Obama to 44% Clinton in TEXAS1

Sorry.
I still want to know what the deal is.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:18 AM on 03/04/2008
- LaFeminazi I'm a Fan of LaFeminazi 236 fans permalink
photo

Groobiecat See Profile I'm a Fan of Groobiecat
Where I live, Brattleboro
Reply Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 06:59 AM on 03/04/2008

Isn't that a metropolis in the deep south?

My family come from Essex County, the only area dumb enough to vote for GWB twice.

Apart from that its beautiful and I cant wait to go home to visit the family.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:19 AM on 03/04/2008
- Groobiecat I'm a Fan of Groobiecat 10 fans permalink

LOL! Yes, it's a thriving metropolis of 12,000...b­ut if you add in the New Yawkers, Massachuttusetters, and Connecticans, it grows to 100,000! (or so it seems ;))

It is lovely here, and as a Washington, DC flatlander escapee, I am proud to call it home. People always say there's something refreshing about coming here. Perhaps it's that there are no billboards allowed along the highway. Perhaps it's the postmen/women who drive on the right side of their own cars, pushing the gas with their left feet while leaning out the right side of the window. Perhaps it's the rush hour traffic (3 cars at a stop sign). Perhaps it's the very literate population who love the arts, a good read, and civil conversation. Whatever it is, it's a great place to live (but shhhhh, don't tell anyone...)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:06 PM on 03/04/2008
- mouselion I'm a Fan of mouselion 123 fans permalink
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AKA: the Banana Belt.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:05 PM on 03/04/2008
- HumeSkeptic I'm a Fan of HumeSkeptic 1568 fans permalink
photo

Just reading the few posts here this morning, it seems everyone in Vermont is educated and well-informed. :-)

That's good for Obama.

I have been to Burlington once, about fifteen years ago. It was beautiful.­But, then, it was in the middle of summer. Th weather was pretty similar to November here in San Diego. :-)

Go Obama!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:35 AM on 03/04/2008
- Groobiecat I'm a Fan of Groobiecat 10 fans permalink

I live in Vermont; it's beautiful here. Highway billboards are illegal. And with about the same population of Washington, DC, everyone seems to know everyone else. VT is the only state that has made a stand in opposing the Bush administration through local initiatives (all symbolic) supporting impeachment. Where I live, Brattleboro, the town council passed an initiative to place on today's ballot an issue to empower the police to "arrest" Cheney and Bush if they eve come here. Wild stuff. The country's reactionaries reacted to that, big time. The population here is probably the oldest in the country. Here are some more facts and figures:

Total Campaign Donations

Obama (D) $506,969

Clinton (D) $55,269

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:59 AM on 03/04/2008

wow, are those donations true???

I'm going to post them on my blog (DailyKos)

Thanks!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:40 AM on 03/04/2008
- Groobiecat I'm a Fan of Groobiecat 10 fans permalink

Sure, taken directly from the FEC web site...!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:07 PM on 03/04/2008
- Heidfeld I'm a Fan of Heidfeld 11 fans permalink

If Vermont didn't want FDR in 1936, than it seems reasonable that they don't want Hillary now.

Girls from Vermont are the best though. They are smart, goodlooking, and they know how to make syrup.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:31 AM on 03/04/2008
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