Hillary's Delegate Math Problem

Newsweek:

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.

I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate's Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries.

Read the whole story: Newsweek

Comments

[rollingdivision]

09:39 PM on 03/04/2008

Neither Obama or Clinton can win enough elected delegates to earn the nomination. So, the Democratic presidential nominee will be selected by the super delegates during the Democratic convention. Question is when was it agreed the candidate with one more elected delegate gets the Democratic nomination? Actually, the rules are if there is a close race the super delegates decide the nominee. And with Clinton and Obama so close in elected delegates that the super delegates can throw this either way, why should Clinton drop out?

[Plowboy]

06:16 PM on 03/04/2008

Hillary's problem is simple. If people inthe future primaries react to the slimey Canadian Neocon stunt, they will probably punish Clinton. Was it worth it for her? Well, she probably got a 5 to 10% boost -- temporarily. That is not repeatable. Future such false last minute "reports" will be viewed more rationally. And anyone thinking about her fake news report ad on this should be turmed off from her for good.
She will probably won three states today. But that is her swan song. She'll make trouble like the Neocon she is. But good reportage of this sickening gaming off the voters -- and with foreign Neocon help -- is not going to appeal to Americans.
Trash is trash, and Hillary has proven herself trash.

[foreffectivegovernment]

04:00 PM on 03/04/2008

How about this possibility.

Hillary Clinton loses in Texas because of the way the caucauses favor Obama.

Hillary Clinton loses Ohio because older voters can't get to the polls because of the flooding.

Hillary Clinton SUSPENDS her campaign the way the MSM wants her to, like Romney did.

The Republican Conservatives trash Obama like they tried to do McCain. Even though it didn't work on McCain, it did hurt him. Democratic voters flush Obama like they did Hillary.

The super-delegates go to Hillary and beg her to become the Democratic nominee and she becomes President in November.

Don't laugh, this makes more sense than some of the MSM forecasts.

[timm0]

05:10 PM on 03/04/2008

That may make more sense than some MSM forecasts, but that certainly doesn't demonstrate that it still makes any sense at all.

Repug conservatives are having a hard time getting ANYONE to get out and vote right now. But I'd need a good guide to help me sort out the slanderous fear and smear attacks on Obama - which are from the rnc repukes, and which ones are from the HRC repukes? The thing on Obama's side is that no Republican voter cares a wit about what HRC has to say on anything. He will crush mccain in November.

[WallStreetNobody]

07:54 AM on 03/05/2008

I agree with you that Obama can crush McCain in November. But I wouldn't count Hillary out so easily. Sure her negatives are huge but they're virtually all from Republicans who aren't going to vote for her or Obama anyway. Hillary will wipe the floor with McCain during any debate and probably in campaigning in general. Her support is growing and she's going to associate herself with the economic success of President Clinton's terms which will be huge given this issue is becoming front-and-center. Fiscal conservatives for the most part would support her I think the way they supported Bill Clinton, like Greenspan said "Bill Clinton was the greatest 'Republican' president I've ever worked with". This is due to his fiscal responsibility, something which the Bush administration threw out the window and no self-respecting fiscal conservative can admire. If Hillary gets the nomination, I'd like to see the dream ticket of her giving Obama the VP nod. Then the 'inexperience' argument goes out the window and at least all the voters rallying around him will have more of a reason to rally around Hillary and make sure a Democrat wins the White House.

[strifeknot]

05:22 PM on 03/04/2008

Keep dreaming. Clinton is and has been the MSM's preferred candidate from the start.

[klondiker]

02:41 PM on 03/04/2008

Yeah, and if Obama wins every contest, he still won't reach 2025.

[SShaw490]

03:15 PM on 03/04/2008

That's exactly the point of the story. He can't get there, and neither can she. But she's betting on superdelegates overriding the voters. He's going to wind up with more earned delegates - by a long shot - even if she massively overperforms in the coming elections.

[kipmartin]

03:39 PM on 03/04/2008

read the article. the point is this--the dems will suffer if she drags this out as she likely will.

[foreffectivegovernment]

04:05 PM on 03/04/2008

"the dems will suffer if she drags this out as she likely will."

Not near as much as they will if Obama gets the nomination and loses to McCain.

[Laprawler501]

04:32 PM on 03/04/2008

Dragging it out? interesting

[SShaw490]

02:28 PM on 03/04/2008

After reading the HuffPo blurb on the fake Hillary radio ad in Ohio that claims it's an AP news story, proceeds to slime Obama over the Nafta flap (using information that the highest levels of Canadian government refutes), then slips in the "I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved..." at the end, I hope that worthless woman never wins another state. I can't imagine the party allowing her name to ever be on another ballot.

I've been trying to be nice until now, but - WORTHLESS BITCH.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

02:48 PM on 03/04/2008

If the Candian NAFTA issue was about Hillary instead of Obama, you would never believe anythign the Candians have come out to say now. Why should I give Obama the benefit ofthe doubt on this? Would you give it to Hillary? Especially since his first response to this issue was to lie and say no meeting ever took place.

Now, you might say he didn't know about the meeting. That he can't know everything that goes on in his campaign. But, when that has been tried with Hillary before, everyone then says it just shows how she's no leader if she doesn't know what her campaign is doing.

blah, blah, blah

Obama has been caughtin quite a few lies recently, it doesn't seem like anythign but politics as usual from Obama now....

[SShaw490]

03:12 PM on 03/04/2008

There was never any meeting in which an Obama told one of his people to tell the Candian government that the NAFTA discussion was just "politics". So Obama said it didn't happen because it didn't.

On he other hand, there damn sure was never any AP news story that the radio spot pretends to portray. Now, THAT'S a lie.

[kipmartin]

03:38 PM on 03/04/2008

lies? wtf are you talking about. name one. you cant. and while you are at it ill make a list of 20 Hillary lies off the top of my head. lets start with Whitewater. then lets move on to the story about Sir Edmund Hillary and how her mother had named her after him--too bad he hadnt climbed Everest yet and was virtually unknown at her birth. then the story about her high school soccer team (her school had no such team). and then the scary story about her daughter jogging in NYC on Spt 11. too bad Chelsea A.) doesnt jog, B.) wasnt near the towers in NYC, and C.) Chelsea had already told a differing story of her Sept. 11th activities.

i can understand bending the truth for political reasons. thats not right, but it happens. but Hillary is a pathological liar who makes up stories just to get attention. not only is she incompetent, i believe she has mental problems.

im not a sexist either. i think there are better women out there who could serve our country as President much better.

so lets here you 'Obama lies'. are they pathological whoppers like the ones i mentioned? not likely. Obama doesnt lie. he is winning because we Americans can smell a bullshit artist a mile away.

[SLone08]

02:08 PM on 03/04/2008

Drop out Hillary.

[harrisjb]

02:54 PM on 03/04/2008

You wish Obamabot.

Stay in Hillary, STAY IN! Most of us Dems realize YOU are the REAL DEAL and we are rooting for you!

WIN THIS THING AND THEN KICK MCCAIN'S ASS TOO!

[Trayf]

04:35 PM on 03/04/2008

Actually, most democrats so far have been supporting Obama, not Hillary. Nice try, though.