Mississippi Primary: Latest News And Polls

Mississippi Primary: Latest News And Polls

Huffington Post   |   March 6, 2008 01:27 PM


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***LAST UPDATED MARCH 11***

Obama Wins Mississippi Primary: The AP reports on Obama's victory:

Barack Obama coasted to victory in Mississippi's Democratic primary Tuesday, latest in a string of racially polarized presidential contests across the Deep South and a final tune-up before next month's high-stakes race with Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania.

Obama was winning roughly 90 percent of the black vote but only about one-quarter of the white vote, extending a pattern that carried him to victory in earlier primaries in South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana.

He picked up at least six Mississippi delegates to the Democratic National Convention, with 27 more to be awarded. He hoped for a win sizable enough to erase most if not all of Clinton's 11-delegate gain from last week, when she won three primaries.

Clinton Voters Against Obama As VP: CNN reports that a majority of Clinton's voters are unenthusiastic about a Clinton/Obama ticket:

According to exit polls, 60 percent of Clinton voters say the New York senator should not make Obama her running mate, while only 34 percent say she should.

Obama supporters appear to be more welcoming of Clinton as Obama's vice president. If Obama wins the party's nomination, 64 percent of his supporters say he should make a similar offer to Clinton.

Mississippi Primary Polarized By Race: From the AP exit polls:

In the Democratic race, Mississippi voters were strongly polarized by race, even more than in most other states that voted this year. Seven in 10 whites voted for Clinton, while 9 in 10 blacks voted for Obama. Clinton won among both white women, a group she normally carries, and white men, a key swing group in this campaign. Clinton's margin among whites is about even with her largest margin among the group to date, which was in neighboring Alabama. Obama's margin among blacks was his second best showing with the group, after his home state of Illinois. About half of the voters in the Democratic primary were black.

One in four whites said race was important to their votes, and nearly all of them voted for Clinton. Four in 10 blacks said race was important to their votes and nearly all of them voted for Obama.


What To Watch For In Today's Results: Andrew Romano at Newsweek argues that although Mississippi is Obama's to lose (according to recent polls), there are three important things to watch coming out of today's primary:

1) The Delegate Count: As we've repeated ad nauseum, Obama's case for the nomination at this point is all about math: I am winning by 100-plus delegates, he says. No matter what happens in the upcoming contests, I will still be ahead in the delegate count by the end of regulation. If things go as planned today, his campaign could emerge with a new arithmetical talking point. On March 4, Hillary Clinton won the primaries in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island, giving her a ton of narrative momentum--"Comeback Kid," anyone?--but only a tiny net gain in delegates. Ohio awarded her nine more delegates than Obama, but his victories in Vermont and the Texas caucuses canceled out her primary wins in Rhode Island and the Lone State State. With two delegates from Saturday's Wyoming win, that means Obama has a chance to completely erase Clinton's March 4 advances today. According to Slate's Delegate Calculator, a 20-point win net him the seven delegates needed to do the trick--which is exactly what the polls are predicting. So keep an eye on that margin. Of course, a nifty mathematical "triumph" won't trump Clinton's comeback storyline, or shift the spotlight off of Pennsylvania. But it's definitely the factoid that Team Obama is hoping to feed the talking heads tonight....

Ad: Hillary's The New Comeback Kid: Hillary's radio ad plays up her newfound underdog status:

"They said she couldn't do it. They counted her out. But Hillary Clinton fought back. And she won big," the announcer says. "Maybe that's why Barack Obama is running false attack ads against her now. But Hillary thinks Mississippians deserve the truth about what she's done and what she'll do."

You can listen to it here.

Rasmussen Poll: Obama Leads By 14: Obama leads in this weekend's Rasmussen poll that shows a racially polarized primary:

While most of the political world is focused on the Pennsylvania Primary scheduled for April 22 or the Democrats' delegate dilemma, Mississippi is hosting a Primary of its own this coming Tuesday. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by fourteen percentage points in the state. It's Obama 53% Clinton 39%.


Clinton leads among senior citizens but trails among younger voters. But, it is the racial divide that defines the campaign in Mississippi--Obama leads 80% to 12% among African-American voters while Clinton holds a 47% advantage among White voters.

Previewing Mississippi: With one day to go before the caucus, several papers are giving a rundown of what the primary means, both tomorrow and for the larger state of the race.

The Wall Street Journal says that Mississippi is Obama's to lose. And with the highest Democratic enthusiasm since 1976, the Jackson Clarion-Ledger wonders if Mississippi might not become a blue state this year.

The Los Angeles Times suggests that Hillary's pugnacious treatment of Obama, which helped carry her to victory in Texas and Ohio, might undermine her support within the African-American community in a general election. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Enquirer suggests that Obama's support among blacks might be driving some working-class whites to Hillary's camp.

Bill Clinton: We Got Started Late: Bill Clinton sought to manage expectations in the Mississippi primary on Tuesday, telling reporters that the campaign "got started late-we started behind organizationally" in Mississippi:


Watch the video here.

Insider Advantage Poll: Hillary Better Than Expected: Although another poll shows Obama with a solid lead, some signs point to a better Hillary performance than expected, particularly because of Republicans hoping to stretch the Democratic race along:

This should be a very safe race for Obama. Past primaries in the South show him attracting most of the African-American vote, and that vote is hugely significant in a Mississippi Democratic primary. While there remains a relatively high percentage of undecided black voters in our survey, this is typical in southern races at this stage. That number will dwindle as Election Day draws near.


"There is some good news for Clinton in this survey. First, she is winning independent voters. Second, we have heard rumors that Republicans voters might engage in the primary in higher than normal numbers, so that they can vote for Clinton, and thus keep the Democratic battle going. There is some evidence that this trend might be developing.

ARG Poll: Obama With Huge Lead: American Research Group has Barack Obama with a phenomenal lead in its first poll of the primary landscape:

Barack Obama 58%
Hillary Clinton 34%

Obama Wants Clinton To Explain Mississippi Comments: The Obama camp is reminding Mississippians of some unfriendly words from Sen. Clinton about their state this past fall:

In October, Clinton told the Des Moines Register newspaper that "I was shocked when I learned Iowa and Mississippi have never elected a woman governor, senator or member of Congress. There has got to be something at work here...when you look at the numbers, how can Iowa be ranked with Mississippi? That's not what I see. That's not the quality. That's not the communitarianism. That's not the openness I see in Iowa."

Clinton Arrives In Mississippi: Sen. Clinton is heading to Mississippi for the primary next Tuesday:

Clinton, who represents New York, accepted an invitation to speak at the state Democratic Party's Jefferson Jackson Hamer Day Dinner tonight. It begins at 7:30 in the Canton Multipurpose and Equine Center. Tickets are $125 each.


Obama did not accept the same invitation. Obama, who represents Illinois, mingled with supporters at Peaches Cafe in downtown Jackson last year before attending a fundraiser in the city.

Clinton's first campaign stop in Mississippi will be followed by a visit from her husband, former President Clinton. He is scheduled to attend events in Hattiesburg, Meridian and Tupelo on Friday.


 
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In my view there are two options: Honor the results or hold new primary elections," Clinton, a New York senator, said in Washington.

I believe that it is better to hold new primary elections. And the DNC can pay by holding fundraising
concerts in L.A at the Kodak Theatre with appearances by stars and singers who support Obama and
Hillary but there would be no speeches supporting either candidates nor would there be any placards showing the candidates name. Volunteers would receive call during the concerts taking donations for the DNC and the funds collected can go towards the cost of a redo in Florida and Michigan.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:56 PM on 03/12/2008
- phansen I'm a Fan of phansen 6 fans permalink

How does delegate distribution work? Obama won 61% of 33 delegates, which by my math is 20. So Clintong gets 13.

But, instead it ended up being 19 and 14. Does that have to do with how districts are drawn? In which case, she won hardly any districts... so how does that work?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:08 PM on 03/12/2008

Obama and his supporters have damaged the democratic party with their constant whining and baseless accusations of racism whenever the going gets tough.
Arianna, whatever happened to those Bill Bennett virtues you and your husband advertised when campaigning in CA for the senate. How did you keep a straight face on camera?
Will you post this or just ban it like all the others that don't fawn all over your chosen one?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:44 PM on 03/12/2008
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The Clinton's legacy: Bill Clinton not being able to keep it in his pants for 8 years and costs Al Gore the election. Hillary Clinton destroying the Democratic party to such an extent this year that McCain will defeat Senator Obama. They can both go to hell. I despise both of them.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:55 PM on 03/12/2008

No, your destroying the democratic party.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:37 PM on 03/12/2008
- hank48188 I'm a Fan of hank48188 8 fans permalink

Al Gore lost because he didn't want Bill Clinton to help. If the DEMS of Palm Beach County Florida wouldn't have used the Butterfly Ballot Al Gore would be President today. Pat Buchannan received about 4,000 extra votes that were meant for Al Gore. CHECK YOUR FACTS.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:59 PM on 03/12/2008

I am extremely upset about the Texas caucus. I am upset that although Hillary won the popular vote, Obama got more delegates than she did because of the caucus. More importantly, I am upset because as I learn more about the nomination process, I have learned that my vote is really not as important as I was led to believe. First of all the people in Texas got to vote twice- once in the primary and once in the caucus (how many people get to vote twice in other states) Secondly, (correct me if I am wrong) when one votes in the primary I believe that counts as one vote, but when one is voting in a caucus their vote (according to the precinct they live in)can count for as much as 5 times more than another vote. In actuality it.. is entirely possible that your vote can count 6 times more than mine.Thirdly, I believe that caucus's do not necessarily reflect the will of the people . I did a little research and found that in many states that held caucus's, the actual number of people voting were extremely low (Wyoming, approximately 8000 people, Nebraska, approximately 6000 people) Do you think these numbers are reflective of the total popu;lation of the states? We know that it is certainly
not apathy. I would recommend strongly that we do away with caucus's completely in the future.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:28 PM on 03/12/2008
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Why be upset...this whole process could have been averted if the people of Texas had decried the process when it was first started and endorsed by the Clinton's at the time.

Note:
...Yet given that criticism, it's worth noting that, according to Texas Democratic Party attorneys NBC spoke with in the last few days, Bill Clinton's campaign helped write those rules for 1992, and Bill Clinton twice won the Texas primary using those rules.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/03/03/724529.aspx




    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:24 PM on 03/12/2008
- hank48188 I'm a Fan of hank48188 8 fans permalink

Wyoming has 60,000 Registered DEMS but only 8,690 of them voted. For every 725 votes in Wyoming they get 1 Delegate, Wyoming has 12. In Florida, where their votes didn't count, they had 1,700,000 DEMS voting. If they were to get 1 Delegate for every 725 votes they would have 2344 Delegates but they really have about 235. As you can see a vote in Wyoming is worth 10 votes in Florida, a disparity no DEMOCRACY should ever allow, but the DEMS embrace this sort of inequity.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:14 PM on 03/12/2008

I agree that we should do away with the caucus's! Most people cannot go to these as they are too long and it seems too a bit too stressful. But speaking of votes; I live in Florida and my vote didn't count.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:03 PM on 03/14/2008
- Grannysue I'm a Fan of Grannysue 128 fans permalink
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Ferrarro probably has Limbaugh on speed dial, asking for directions to defeat Obama. He's told all the good old GOPERS they know they can beat Hillary, so vote for her. And of course all the good little Kool-aid drinkers are. Ferrarro is helping this along. Clinton is not electable, there is a good portion of the American public, me being one, who will not, don't want, another Bush, or Clinton Presidency! That's not a change, it more of the same. Her or McBush doesn't make a difference, Obama makes a difference.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:23 PM on 03/12/2008
- Superbus I'm a Fan of Superbus 27 fans permalink
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Yes, The Rush to Judgement Tour is working.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:14 PM on 03/12/2008
- butchie65 I'm a Fan of butchie65 7 fans permalink

Doesn't matter now, Geraldine, stepped down. Ya Hoo ! Oh by the way, it was because she was white, is why everyone picked on her.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:27 PM on 03/12/2008

My sister would have loved to vote in a Texas caucus, but couldn't because it was held during a time when she had to work. Her husband, who works twelve hour days, stayed home to help their children with their homework. They both support Hillary. Meanwhile their Barrack supporting neighbors, - neither who work, but could if they weren't lazy and getting every benefit handed to them on a plate - left their three children home alone to go take part in the caucus. Now tell me that's a fair system. Surely, allowing everyone a chance to vote during polling times is the only democratic way of electing someone.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:58 PM on 03/12/2008
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I am an Obama supporter who would have loved to caucus for Obama & give him an even larger delegate lead over Hillary....but could not due to the fact that my son had a boy scout meeting he needed me to take him to.

Moral of the story.....don't be overgeneralizing about your "Barack-supporting neighbors"...it's unbecoming....

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:36 PM on 03/12/2008
- hank48188 I'm a Fan of hank48188 8 fans permalink

It just goes to show how un-democratic a caucus is, if you don't have a secret ballot and 12 hours to vote you have no DEMOCRACY.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:49 PM on 03/12/2008
- Karenina44 I'm a Fan of Karenina44 5 fans permalink

Ah... here you go... Huffpo on the "Limbaugh Effect"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wilson/mississippi-limbaugh-ef_b_91112.html

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:42 PM on 03/12/2008
- Karenina44 I'm a Fan of Karenina44 5 fans permalink

Hey folks with their ears to the pavement... anyone heard of any Limbaugh factor at play in MS since it was an open primary? Especially since the white vote was so lop-sided.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:32 PM on 03/12/2008
- dr4Will I'm a Fan of dr4Will 10 fans permalink
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what a surprise--90% of the blacks vote black--but they are not racists!!!!sure!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:00 PM on 03/12/2008
- drmavis I'm a Fan of drmavis 2 fans permalink

I am a proud Mississippi Hillarican and I want everybody to know that I voted for Hillary Rodham Clinton because I believe she is the best candidate to be President! It's just not fair that men always get to be president and now it's her turn! She has 35 years of experience MAKING change to better America for us all. And the economy was really good when her husband was president. VOTE HILLARY 2008!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:39 PM on 03/12/2008

There is no doubt that Republicans were crossing over and voting for Hillary, with the thought that she would be easier to beat.

Mississippi has an open primary, and no party registration. So, Republicans could vote in the Dem. Primary, and vote Republican in the National election (and vice versa). There was recently a Federal lawsuit about this very issue, brought by the Democratic party. The Judge ruled in favor of the Democratic party, and said as a remedy that all voters would have to reregister, stating party affiliation (R, D or independent). The DEMOCRATIC party has appealed, on the theory that re-registration will cause voter intimidation. Maybe so—but how else can a party limit it’s primary? It’s a tricky issue. In any event, it’s perfectly legal in MS at this time to “cross over”—and there is no doubt that it happened.

Hold Your Nose And Vote?


Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:22:57 PM PDT
Here is an interesting tidbit from the Mississippi exit poll. Look at the percentage of Hillary Clinton voters who are dissatisfied with the idea of an eventual Clinton nomination:





A full 15% of voters who said they will be unsatisfied if she gets the nomination voted for Hillary Clinton. In contrast, only 4% of Obama voters say the same about their candidate.

Looking at other exit polls, we see a similar result. In Ohio, for example (which was also an open primary), 12% of those who would be unsatisfied with Clitnon were Clinton supporters, while only 3% of those unsatisfied with an Obama nomination were Obama voters.

In Texas (open primary), 10% of those unsatisfied with a Clinton nod were Clinton, compared to Obama's 7%.

In Tennessee (also an open primary), 11% of those who would be unhappy with Clinton as nominee were Clinton voters, and only 4% of those unhappy with an Obama candidacy were Obama voters.

The phenomenon doesn't appear to be universal (in Wisconsin, for example, the numbers break down 4% for Clinton and 6% for Obama). But it is prevalent enough to merit a closer look. Why are so many Clinton voters in some states unsatisfied with the prospect of a Clinton nomination? Does that number reflect Republican crossover votes? A little mischief perhaps? After all, Clinton did dominate the Republican vote in Mississippi (75%-25%). Is a certain block of Hillary's "support," in other words, an effort to nominate a candidate they think will be "weaker" in the general election?


    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:28 PM on 03/12/2008
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Blacks have been used by Democrats just like the pro life folks have been used by the GOP.

LBJ was the last Democrat to try major change in the condition of minorities but the probably

unintended result was a welfare state that perpetuated the inequalities and stifled progress.

The GOP is the party of self righteous whites, self loathing minorities & conservative Latinos.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:08 PM on 03/12/2008
- cblcar I'm a Fan of cblcar 6 fans permalink

It's a caucus. Nobody cares. The general election has no caucuses. The person who wins the primaries is the one who will beat the Republicans.

Hillary '08

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:01 PM on 03/12/2008
- mcnairbo I'm a Fan of mcnairbo 8 fans permalink

Of course he won easily. He wins every southern state with a large black population. So what.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:17 AM on 03/12/2008
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