Poll: SurveyUSA Breaks Down General Election State-By-State

It is funny how suddenly everyone is an expert on the EC. We have been analyzing it for a couple of months. We were flamed relentlessly, especially since we modeled the election with a unique method that was not poll based.

Now the polls are catching up to our analysis. Early on, we demonstrated that Obama loses NJ and PA against McCain while Clinton wins it. We also know that Obama loses CT at this time. Our model also irons out differences in polling opinion that can be gamed. For example we flames the ridiculous poll that has Obama up by 10 points just before the CA primary as well as everyone, and I mean everyone saying that WI was indicative of OH and did not constitute a trend of voter base movement.

For now lets just take a quick look at the latest SurveyUSA, who has been one of the better national pollsters out there for some time. However if you just take a quick look at the actual data, you see a couple of glaring issues right off the bat!

Although both have roads to victory for the Dems against McCain, it is clear that Obama shows up as the weaker candidate and perhaps much weaker than Clinton.

The ties on the Obama column go to Obama, while all of the ties on the Clinton column go to McCain. If you just split the ties, Clinton comes out ahead of Obama. Did someone say on this post that they were a statistics major and did not look at the data itself? Too many Poli-Sci classes I suppose.

Also AxelDC"s analysis becomes impossible when you look at the data and is likely wishful thinking especially making PA and NJ a toss up for Clinton and amazingly incorrect and stating that CA and CT are solid for BO and not HRC, when if fact BO actually puts CA in play against McCain, and Lieberman won against the MoveOn candidate as an Independent!

Actually, I think AxelDC or that poll may be just shooting from the hip in a Public Relations kind of way as opposed to empirical substance or data, just like the BO campaign.
We continue to stand by our analysis of the EC demonstrates the remaining candidates in order are 1. Clinton; 2, McCain and 3. Obama. It has been dead on. The numbers do not lie or spin. You can check some of our other posts.

SurveyUSA is more consistent than the OpenLeft poll listed above. What is clear is that the primary presidential election will be real close contrary to what the DNC feels is another slam-dunk like Gore and Kerry I suppose. Clinton has a much easier and more straightforward winning path than any of the candidates that are left.

Hey SUSA needs to come up with another one in about 7 days. I am fascinated about stuff like this.

How about one every 15days SUSA? If you want money we can donate. It's like looking at a battlefield plan. I just love it!

I must say I think Obama will win NJ against McCain. It may be close but Obama will win.
And I think Clinton is in a good position to win Michigan.

This only means Diebold must wait until after the convention to ship their new machines.

This business of Hillary hinting of possibly Obama as her running mate is simply a ploy to divert the undecided and weak-minded into voting for her under the impression that if she wins, we will have 2 for the price of one, a la Bill's mantra. One: HRC will not ask Obama to be her VP candidate, and Two; Obama would not accept if asked. What if Obama gets the nomination? Do you think he will ask Hillary? How would you like to have Hillary a heartbeat away from the presidency if it's your heart at risk? Bloomberg would be the best running mate for Obama.

Hlllary is doing her best to give the election to McCain.

The Clinton map has Minnesota going McCain.

Bwah!!!

Would.Never.Happen.

I assume you are referring to the SurveyUSA Article:

These maps are distorted by the fact that they assume a 1 pt lead, like McCain has over Texas, is the same as a win.

If broken down by solid, leaning and toss up, Obama is actually in much better shape against McCain.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4374

Solid Clinton--77 (eleven or more points): AR, DC, IL, MA, NY, RI
Lean Clinton--126 (six to ten points): CA, CT, FL, ME, MD, OH, VT
Toss Up--135 (five points or less): DE, HI, IA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NM,
OR, PA, TN, WA, WV, WI
Lean McCain--136 (six to ten points): AL, CO, KS, KY, LA, MS, NV, NH,
NC, OK, SC, TX, VA
Solid McCain--65 (eleven or more points): AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, MT, NE,
ND, SD, UT, WY

Solid Obama--163 (eleven or more points): CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD,
NY, RI, VT, WA, WI
Lean Obama--66 (six to ten points): CO, DE, MA, MN, NM, OH, OR
Toss-up--186: (five points or less): AK, FL, MI, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NC,
ND, PA, TX, VA
Lean McCain--25 (six to ten points): IN, MO, MT
Solid McCain--98 (eleven or more points): AL, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KY, LA,
MS, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY

Despite seemingly similarity in their performance against McCain, this
breakdown shows real differences between Obama and Clinton in the
general election. Against Obama, McCain's "solid" and "lean" states
only add up to 123, while Obama's add up to 229. In a matchup against
Clinton, the "solid" and "lean" states are of equal size: 201 for
McCain, and 203 for Clinton. In other words, while McCain and Clinton
appear evenly matched, McCain is only able to keep it close against
Obama by running up a series of narrow wins in the toss-up states.

Having studied the presentation here, I see it as a highly optimistic strech for Clinton. The projection given is the best possible she can hope for. And it just isnn't brealistic to suppose that all those borderline states will fall for her. (I have studied probability and eventaught it. Ther is no way a reasonable person could expect this maximum possible outcome. And just a small slip, and she's a loser.
Barack Obama, on the other hand, has some slack, and his projections do not have so many iffy states. Therefore it is much more likely. Realistically wew can project him as a winner over McCain, but we cannot project victory for her.
Please recall that Bill Clinton only won because of a frellow with big ears who took away Republican votes. He was not the big favorite some seem to remember. And he had a more positive rating than his "experienced" wife. And Perot isn't running AS FAR AS I KNOW.
Obama over McCain, but McCain over Clinton.

We are still 8 months away from the general election, this is a lifetime in the world of political campaigns. 8 months ago the polls showed Clinton and Giuliani clinching their party nominations with ease. This poll is just as useless. It is not indicative of anything that can tell us what the results in Nov might look like.

I can't believe I'm giving advice to the opposition, but Obama would be more competitive if he selected Edwards as his running mate over Hillary.

Finally a poll that is getting closer to our predictions a few weeks ago. What it does show is that it will be close. What you don"t in the picture, that certain states are tied and therein lies much of the difference between our non-poll projections and SurveyUSA, who are very good at this.

This SurveyUSA has Clinton tied in MI and TN and they gave these states to McCain. Our study has both these states on the Clinton column making her victory even greater, although still a challenge. In addition we have Clinton also winning in NV and TN.

On the Obama column where our calculations differ are in the VA tie going to Obama. We have that staying Red and he loses. However that is close but not our only discrepancy. We have Obama losing in CT, NM and CO and WI are ties.

This is basially how ours adds up and it is suspect that the ties with Obama are marked in his favor, yet the ties with Clinton are marked in McCains favor. This falsely make Clintons margin smaller than Obama.

As a native Nebraskan used to seeing my state vote red in 70% margins, I am very heartened that it picks up the only mixed result. Under Obama of course.

Under Clinton it is 70% again, and so are a lot of other places. Even if she wins, most of the nation feels as if they didn't have a voice and the far right is again emboldened to investigate her qadministration to a standstill.

If Obama gets a running mate from a big red state or region (hint: South) that is on verge of turning for him, this could be a rout.

I just don't see Michigan going to McCain if it were Hillary vs McCain. Close, definitely, but tipping in her favor.

I beleive by the time the primaries are over and a Democratic candidate picked that the polls will be very different, because of the rancor between the camps and supporters of Obama and Clinton. The hate will be so overriding that the losers supporters may not vote in the general and give the election to Mccain by default.