Obama Camp: Our Popular Vote Lead Is Pretty Insurmountable Too

Buttressed by a victory in last night's Mississippi primary, Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign claimed on Wednesday that it not only had a pledged delegate lead that would be hard to reverse, but also a popular vote advantage that Sen. Hillary Clinton would have difficulties overcoming.

"Although we don't think this is the barometer on which the race will be decided, we have a big popular vote lead," said campaign manager David Plouffe. "Our popular vote lead is up around a million. Which is obviously a significant edge and one they would have a very tough time reversing."

Plouffe's estimation was much higher than those offered by news outlets. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama leads Clinton by slightly more than 700,000 votes after 40-plus primary elections. That number drops to just over 400,000 when including Florida's results (in Michigan Obama was not on the ballot).

The difference between these estimates and those from the Obama camp, Plouffe offered, was due to the fact that many of the caucus states had yet to tally their popular votes. In Texas, he offered as an example, "we project to pick up a 120,000 popular vote advantage [in the caucus], which is larger than what Senator Clinton got out of the primary." In Mississippi, meanwhile, Plouffe estimated that Obama would have a net gain of approximately 100,000 votes.

With only ten primary elections left in the nomination process there is an increasing likelihood that Obama will end up with a relatively substantial pledge delegate lead. After Mississippi's election his campaign estimated that he had not only erased the losses he had in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island, but now bested Clinton by 161 such delegates.

Faced with these obstacles, the Clinton camp has tried to refocus the political spotlight on the popular vote; the logic being that if they could overtake Obama in that account they could make a strong case to super delegates -- the party insiders who vote independently for candidates during the Democratic convention -- to come to their side.

"They are trying to hold the popular vote out there because they can't overtake the delegate lead," said Plouffe. "They are trying to create a diversion there... But our lead is bigger than most counts have it."

The confidence of Plouffe's delegate and popular vote projections stood in contrast the pessimism with which he discussed the upcoming Pennsylvania primary. In a heavy dose of expectations-setting -- something the Obama camp has been accused, by supporters, of lacking -- he argued that the state was tailored to Clinton's strengths. "They are the prohibitive favorite, they will campaign there very hard," Plouffe added. "We will try to win but our campaign will not be defined by Pennsylvania."

The Obama campaign also sent out a memo to reporters in the midst of the conference call. The document read:

The Clinton Campaign would like to focus your attention only on Pennsylvania - a state in which they have already declared that they are "unbeatable." But Pennsylvania is only one of 10 remaining contests, each important in terms of allocating delegates and ultimately deciding who are nominee will be.

Comments

[FOTH]

It's getting way past time for this to be resolved. I can't see how Clinton wins this and doesn't destroy the enthusiasm that has occurred regarding the voters coming out this primary season. If she won this outright it's one thing. It doesn't look to me like she can, and will have to resort to backroom deals to win the nominee. Obama looks to be the people's choice either from a popular vote or pledged delegate perspective. I think the Clintons have lost sight of the true objective here which is to get a Democrat in the White House and stop this immoral waste of lives and money in Iraq. If she succeeds in the nomination, it will be a Pyrrhic victory and she will likely lose the general election to McCain. That means we stay in Iraq. I can't accept that.

[lisakaz]

Exactly. In any case, I'll vote for Obama, be he on the ticket or as a write-in.

[asa]

You seem to think that the Hillary supporters are going to automatically support Obama if he gets the nomination. Forget about it, the Obama folks blew it. The Clintons done more for black folks in their political career than Obama ever did in 2 years in the Senate. And how did they get repayed. Politics is a b***h. The guy had it easy ever since he entered politics. He ran for the Senate against Ryan. Ryan drops out. Then against Alan Keys, you know how crazy he is. Obama never had it so good. Then Kerry picks him to give the key note address. WOW where did that come from. Because he was black?

[Brutus1]

That's right, if Obama is the nominee, I'll sit this one out. Me and millions of others.

[Fasteddie1515]

If Hillary was not married to Bill Clinton, she would not be a Senator and we would not be having this conversation. Senator Obama has walked the pavement in Chicago communitys helping people and serving in the state senate you know....where the Governor works. Kerry picked Senator Obama to give the keynote address because he was the best person to give it. If you can't get over the fact that the best candidate is going to win this nomination, take your ball and go home!

[Tejano1]

i guess that "black folks" should just get on their knees and thank the mcclintons for everything they've done for them. they're so ungrateful, those black folks. don't they REALIZE that they OWE their allegiance to billary? how DARE they make up their own minds to support a candidate that millions of other americans are supporting. who do they think they are! asa, you're one backwards thinker. it's "folks" like you who prove that mcclinton's southern strategy is working. and by the way, obama has worked for everything he's gotten. you make your own luck. coming to kerry's attention was an effect of obama's hard work and his talent. get it? had nothing to do with blackness. that's racist bullshit.

[indie17]

Lots of us see that Obama is brilliant, has the character, temperament, policies, diplomacy skills, and leadership abilities to be President. I am sorry that you do not see that, but you have the right to vote for whomever you want.

Exit polls show that most Hillary supporters will indeed support the Democratic nominee for President.

[BeyondGoodAndEvil]

Apparently this fact seems to escape the brains of Clinton supporters who have only stepped up their bigotry and hatred towards Senator Obama.

[frappe]

Please, Hillary. Regain a sense of sanity and some perspective. The situation is hopeless for you and the longer that you postpone the inevitable, the worse the situation will become for the all concerned. Withdraw from this race now before you destroy everything that you've worked so hard to achieve.

[snowcat]

Lynn Sweet from Chicago Sun Times was just on MSNBC blaming Obama for keeeping Ferrrao's remarks in the news!!!
Another Clinton shill!
Obviously the fact that Ferraro made the rounds on networks all day spewing more racist crap had zero to do with it still being in the news!!! The fact that Monica Novotny did nothing to refute her with facts is also unbelievable.

[BrooklynLager]

Thanks for the heads-up.

I'll be sure to ignore Lynn Sweet's observations from here on out.

[kat7]

It is time to ignore MSNBC network as well. Many Obama cults have already ignored CNN, FOX, ABC and NBC long time ago.

Do not be left out with a just flower in your brain!

It is time have your own Obama Broadcasting Network just like Pat Robertson Religious 700 Club.

[freccia]

I can't stand both campaigns touting their inflated numbers at every turn. It doesn't reflect poorly on either campaign or candidate in my eyes, it's just dumb. Why can't we just agree to use the numbers that are concrete without speculation? Why does EVERYTHING have to incorporate a level of posturing? Ughhh.

[CheshireCat2]

Yeah like the 14 point lead she holds in PA. Is this the same polling company that showed Obama ahead by just 5 pts in Miss. DAMN! Common sense would have told you that was wrong without a poll. HOWEVER, you must remember that the Clintons were the people who invented government by polling. It goes like this pollute and bastardize the poll in your favor then all the OTHER people will follow suit because they think they missed something. They preyed on ignorance for years and counted on people to watch the local news. Now, this is a different era. This is a much more informed group of people who get the news at the speed of the internet.

[mcfried]

Sorry blame Clinton, according to all reasonable estimates she hasn't been able to win since Wisconsin and spins a million different ways to justify her s**ty behavior. Whatever she sucks.

[rmetz74]

Because there are no concrete numbers. Votes are still being tallied (Obama picked up several delegates in California just this weekend, as the counts are finally being finalized), delegates can change their minds (even pledged delegates.) Few people realize it, but to a degree, everyone is guessing.

[anghiari]

inflated numbers? confused by math are you? Freccia...start at number one and end with the last delegate he won...

[Seattlelite]

Hillary's only strategy now is to buy time and pray Sen. Obama makes a mistake, her own campaign has said this. The DNC better wake up and realize as loyal as they may be to the Clinton's they need to do the right thing which is stop this drama while there is still time to bring this party back together.

[WeMustChange]

I support Obama!

[stepintothelight]

Man ... The Clintons are making the Republicans look more and more like the real friends of the Dems. Even they would not go to this level.

[CheshireCat2]

Any this matters to the Clinton Camp, HOW?

[NickOhio]

The popular vote may be a criteria for the undecided SDs to use in making their choice. Many have said as much.

Countess, I enjoyed your comments. 700,000 votes is very difficult to overcome. If Obama loses, there will be a lot of upset people. If he wins, Hillary supporters may not want to vote for Obama. I hope that will not occur. Hillary has to earn the trust and respect of the people before she can win the nomination. So does Obama.

[KARE]

NickOhio, one of the most insightful comments on Huffpo, we are only 3 months into this primary season. Remember when we coronated Kerry in less than a month? Lets let the candidates go until they are ready to stop. We are emptying the closets of all the "dirty" stuff and taking that away from the Republicans. Why do you think Obama wrote those books?? So that he could put all the negatives out there and take that opportunity away from anyone else. Let these two candidates vett each other and then when we have our nominee, all that is left is to rally the troops and win.

[weslenforever]

If Obama is so sure he's going to win it all and can't be beaten, then why won't he concede his losses in Michigan and Florida? He's counting on re-votes in hopes the results will change. The fact is Clinton got more votes than all other candidates COMBINED in both states. That should be upheld. If the DNC wants to make an example, then punish the party leaders who changed the primary dates and not the voters. Give Hillary her clearly won delegates and fine the party leaders. Dean has no business being the "decider" in this. He lost his own run for president because he was made into a caricature after his "screaming" speech. If he can't do the RIGHT thing, he should resign.
If they have a re-vote in MI and the results change, come the general election, I will vote for Cynthia McKinney. She's an excellent candidate and she's not on an ego trip. And for those who are ONLY voting for Obama because he's black, and those who are ONLY voting for Hillary because she's a woman, in Cynthia McKinney, you've got both, AND an intelligent and savvy candidate who REALLY DOES care about the people and not the corporations who bought and sold the Bush administration 7 years ago.

[standforpeace]

Are you actually advocating that Hillary Clinton should be awarded a win in Michigan where her name was the only one on the ballot? That seems like a pretty limited kind of democracy

[cmfrey]

Actually Obama's not counting on revotes in hopes the results will change at all. He's counting on the DOJ to block any revote plan:

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2008/03/obama-campaises.html

This is such a smart move for the general election -- shows a lot of good judgement.

[Xander]

Don't be a maroon, as Bugs used to say.

He's not opposed to a revote. He's opposed to a mail-in revote in a state that has proven time and again how corrupt the voting officials are and something that will OBVIOUSLY be tainted for Hillary to benefit the GOP.

And why would he concede Michigan? He'd win Michigan. Handily. And there's no reason for him to concede either state because HE, unlike Hillary, actually honored the agreement not to campaign there. Hillary tried stacking the deck.

[BrooklynLager]

That article just states that they're blocking a vote-by-mail because of the potential for fraud.

Strictly speaking, neither campaign can *block* anything; it's the decision of the national party.

[indie17]

He's concerned about fraud, as the article points out.

I hope they do revote in both MI and FL at this point. There's too much conflict around this issue, so a revote is good for the party.

And when it's over, Obama will still be ahead in delegates. Even the Clinton camp admitted in their big fundraiser today that they don't expect to catch Obama in pledged delegates.

[RevRick]

Obama's not “counting” on the DOJ to do anything.

The Bush administrations “legal experts” just ignored how courts would likely rule to come up with all kinds of "rationale" for Bush's illegal behavior.

Obama in contrast has excellent legal experts who have anticipated a possible obstacle to the re-vote.

Another article

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/would_bushs_justice_department.php

does a better job of looking at what the Obama campaign actually said. That current law would most likely require them to either get approval from the DOJ or a judge and going to a judge would take at least 6 months. Even the DNC is aware of this and is looking into it.

It also notes Clinton’s legal experts did not foresee this, or at least haven’t advised Clinton’s spokespersons about it. The author of the article did ask the Clinton spokesperson to check with her legal experts and to get back to him.

[KQuark]

Obama was not on the ballot in MI and Clinton still only beat "non commited" by less than 20 points. I know you Hillary supporters want every election to be like the current elections in Cuba and Russia where there was only one viable candidate on the ballot, but this is America.

Edwards was still in the campaign in FL and no one campaigned there as well. Clinton won by such a wide margin because it was a beauty contest based on name recognition only. Obama has closed the gap in every contest he has had time to contest so to say these elections were fair is idiotic.

[mattashell]

So if there's a revote and Hillary's not the only one on the ballot you think the results might change. Gosh, how unfair for her. Maybe she should run for president of Russia, where being the only on one on the ballot is standard. Cynthia McKinney huh? I guess if you can't vote for a white womand who injects race into elections, ya might as well vote for a black one who does. Great reasoning there weslenforever!

[anthonylee]

Dean is the Chairman, that makes him the "Decider" for the DNC.

What part of: "there was no Democratic Primary in Florida or Michigan for voters to participate in", don't you get? Everybody agreed, the Candidates, the DNC, the State Party Leaders and ultimately the voters! (they were informed that they were wasting their time and that their "votes" wouldn't count.)

Disenfranchised, punished or whatever "word" you want to give it . . . . Breaking "rules" have consequences, the voters in the State of Florida elected their State Legislature / "Party Leaders" via the same "vote" - to represent their "best interests"! I can't, for the life of me, understand why you don't believe the voters of Florida SHOULDN'T BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE?

Yes, Barack Obama according to the "RULES" established at the start of this primary has Vote & Pledged Delegate "counts" that make it relatively impossible for Hillary Clinton to overtake. Changing the rules after the "game" begins is called "CHEATING" - we have an example of what a "cheater" looks and acts like in the White House presently.

[stanjz]

Senator Clinton brightened herself up prior to March4 , with the constant smiles, yellow jackets and comedy shows. At the same time she tried to make Obama darker, so she could create a contrast between the two of them, not based on policy, but on perception.

I wonder when women voters, blue collar workers and hispanics will say enough of the scare tactics?

[cmfrey]

I'm very confused. Does the popular vote not actually reflect the number of voters in a caucus?:

"In Texas, he offered as an example, "we project to pick up a 120,000 popular vote advantage [in the caucus], which is larger than what Senator Clinton got out of the primary.""

According to the NYTimes, 23,918 voted for Obama and 18,620 voted for Clinton in the Caucus. Where does the 120,000 figure come from?

[Jen326]

After Mississippi's election his campaign estimated that he had not only erased the losses he had in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island, but now bested Clinton by 161 such delegates.

Obama won Texas by 4 delegates.

[allhailmary]

completely untrue.