Obama Camp: Our Popular Vote Lead Is Pretty Insurmountable Too

Buttressed by a victory in last night's Mississippi primary, Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign claimed on Wednesday that it not only had a pledged delegate lead that would be hard to reverse, but also a popular vote advantage that Sen. Hillary Clinton would have difficulties overcoming.

"Although we don't think this is the barometer on which the race will be decided, we have a big popular vote lead," said campaign manager David Plouffe. "Our popular vote lead is up around a million. Which is obviously a significant edge and one they would have a very tough time reversing."

Plouffe's estimation was much higher than those offered by news outlets. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama leads Clinton by slightly more than 700,000 votes after 40-plus primary elections. That number drops to just over 400,000 when including Florida's results (in Michigan Obama was not on the ballot).

The difference between these estimates and those from the Obama camp, Plouffe offered, was due to the fact that many of the caucus states had yet to tally their popular votes. In Texas, he offered as an example, "we project to pick up a 120,000 popular vote advantage [in the caucus], which is larger than what Senator Clinton got out of the primary." In Mississippi, meanwhile, Plouffe estimated that Obama would have a net gain of approximately 100,000 votes.

With only ten primary elections left in the nomination process there is an increasing likelihood that Obama will end up with a relatively substantial pledge delegate lead. After Mississippi's election his campaign estimated that he had not only erased the losses he had in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island, but now bested Clinton by 161 such delegates.

Faced with these obstacles, the Clinton camp has tried to refocus the political spotlight on the popular vote; the logic being that if they could overtake Obama in that account they could make a strong case to super delegates -- the party insiders who vote independently for candidates during the Democratic convention -- to come to their side.

"They are trying to hold the popular vote out there because they can't overtake the delegate lead," said Plouffe. "They are trying to create a diversion there... But our lead is bigger than most counts have it."

The confidence of Plouffe's delegate and popular vote projections stood in contrast the pessimism with which he discussed the upcoming Pennsylvania primary. In a heavy dose of expectations-setting -- something the Obama camp has been accused, by supporters, of lacking -- he argued that the state was tailored to Clinton's strengths. "They are the prohibitive favorite, they will campaign there very hard," Plouffe added. "We will try to win but our campaign will not be defined by Pennsylvania."

The Obama campaign also sent out a memo to reporters in the midst of the conference call. The document read:

The Clinton Campaign would like to focus your attention only on Pennsylvania - a state in which they have already declared that they are "unbeatable." But Pennsylvania is only one of 10 remaining contests, each important in terms of allocating delegates and ultimately deciding who are nominee will be.

Comments

[ayak9]

I love it that MSNBC is showing Texas as zebra striped to show that Hillary did not win our state. I believe they also quit showing MI and FL as Hillary states a while back as well.

It's obvious Billary is trying to argue with the SD's that a popular vote advantage should give them the nomination. The Rush Limbaugh exhortation to get Reps to vote for Hillary in open primaries and the push for a mail-in revote in MI and FL are all aimed at buttressing HIllary's popular vote total.

The fact that they're not including the caucus votes in the popular vote totals is also designed to support this gambit. I don't think it's gonna work.

Go Hillary. Go away!

[mix2007]

Memo to USA: YOU don't matter.

Only old white crackers in places like Ohio and PA count!

And it doesn't matter what you say or do or who you vote for, because she will destroy you if you don't surrender.

Welcome to Hillary-style Democracy.

[TrasKY]

It is very unlikely, though possible, that Hillary can catch Obama in either pledged delegates or popular vote, but it seems awfully spurious to count the Texas primary and the Texas caucuses as two different things, since the voters in the caucuses are a subset of the primary voters.

[NoMoreHawks]

Obama has won TWENTY-NINE states!

Hillary, great try. Good girl.

Go home.

[pheepher]

Come on people! What is up with this "Obama wins don't count"? I can see why Obama is winning the more educated voter. How desparate are the Clinton supporters? What makes you think she is looking out for you, because she says she is? What has she done to prove she is looking out for poor people? Could it be her support to ship your jobs overseas?

[AKJM]

Obama has said we are a nation of immigrants, illegal immigrants included.

How does that help poor people, how does that help unemployed Black men/women.

[rinpochet]

Also she voted against the Energy Bill that Obama supported. This bill would have taxed the oil companies and brought down their profits a bit. It would have given a lot to the development of renewables. And she is out there touting the fact that SHE VOTED AGAINST IT!!! She wouldn't want to hurt the profits of the oil companies in this country. After all, they have contributed so much to her campagn!

They say her base is is the least educated and you can see it with their belief in everything she says. They don't research. Just take it as gospel.

[Tejano1]

she also voted for the heinous bankruptcy bill, an absolute betrayal of democratic principles. disgusting. she's nothing but a rethuglican in dem clothing. if she were to win, and she won't, she'd be the same as old triangulating bill, the "dem" prez who screwed over women and children in his "welfare reform act," and who signed nafta into being. the mcclintons are so crooked they have to unscrew their pants at night.

[JibeJibe]

She is not looking out for all the Americans, as evidenced by the Bankruptcy Bill she voted for and helped to pass. All she had to understand is a basic overview/synopsis of the study done by Elizabeth Warren at Harvard that looked at why most Americans are filing for Bankruptcy. Shocking findings including that 50% of Americans filed because of healthcare costs - an accident or illness set them back... The most interesting stat was that 75% of THOSE folks HAD COVERAGE at the onset of their illness or accident! Clinton voted for this bill that was very favorable to the financial folks NOT the common folks.

I am NOT a Democrat. I went to the caucus here in Washington State to support Obama. I did not vote in the primary here for Obama because in order for me to do that I would have had to declare myself a democrat. So I am in independent that supports Obama. If Hillary Clinton gets the nomination I will simply sit out the general election. I don't care for Hillary or Bill. They are a big reason Bush had the opportunity to inflict that damage that he has on our nation and the world!! They are unintentionally divisive people.

[AKJM]

I heard this son of an African say yesterday that America was a nation of immigrants, and that "we're not sending anyone back."
I think unemployed Americans, especially unemployed Black Americans need clarification. Immigration is fine, but illegal immigration is killing us poor people.

[Xander]

This article pretty much hits the nail on the head across the board. There are 10 contests left, and Hillary will win 2, MAYBE 3 of them. And I'm being very generous in saying that much. It's time for Obama to start thinking about his running mate and switching his campaign over from trying to win the Democratic nod to going ahead and churning out ads comparing he and John McCain for the general election.

The sooner Obama (and the rest of the nation) just start pretending Hillary doesn't even exist, the sooner she'll go away. She's like the boogey man.

[skyreader7]

Obama won a long time ago. Some people never give up. The news media loves to turn this into a contest. Clinton, go home. Why do you want the presidency anyway? According to you, you were practically the president for eight years anyway.

[Dalpine]

Clinton is trying to sabotage Democracy. She makes Spitzer look like a saint.

[Dyogenes]

Time for HRC to follow her own advice and Get Real!.

Stop being so selfish and bullheaded. Give up the narcissism. Do the right thing, and concede to the better candidate his hard earned nomination.

Ending her campaign NOW is not only the best thing for the country and the Democratic party, but better also for the Clintons unless total self-immolation is Plan B.

[lifeinfullcolor]

It's the math, stupid! There is no way that Clinton can win the nomination without winning the pledged delegates and the popular vote, no way! I understand the concept of super delegates that both campaigns will need the assistance of them to put them over the threshold needed, but, it would be the end of the Democratic Party if they gave it to her without winning over the will of the people. How did they let the race get so far out of their reach, when she was the annointed nominee, arogance?

[Beamreach]

You can't count Texas caucus voters separate from the primary voters. They are the same folks. You have to prove you voted in the primary to be able to vote in the caucus, so it is double counting.

[jrb35]

If Sen. Obama ends up with the lead in delegates, states won as well as the popular vote, there is no way anyone can rationally justify Sen. Clinton being given the nomination by party leaders. Don't get me wrong, if she had won the nomination as everyone had expected her to do so early on, I would gladly give her my support and, most importantly, my vote. If she receives the nomination without having surmounted Obama's lead in delegates, states and the popular vote, I will not vote for her nor will I ever support the democratic party again. It would be a most undemocratic result should the candidate with fewer delegates, states and votes end up receiving the nomination anyway.

[dav33]

But it would not be undemocratic. What you fail to realize is that caucauses are undemocratic (ask Gov. Rendell). So these states and the popular vote in these states shouldn't really count. You know we have this whole thing backward: Fla and Mich. should count because they are primaries, but the caucuses shouldn't count--they are the real beauty contests. Thank heaven for the Super Delegates--they will ensure that the voice of the people are heard when they look past those silly undemocratic contests in the caucus states. Given this rationale, I am still wondering why the Clintons poured over $20 million into Iowa. A waste of time and money.

[truthyguy]

You are not alone. But I go one step further. After seeing Hillary demonstrate her lack of leadership through a poorly run campaign, her lack of honesty and candor by hiding information (tax returns, etc), making false claims about her resume and Obama's resume, and her underhanded manipulation of the working class through statements which are totally false, I would not ever vote for her if she was the nominee, regardless of how she got there.

[jp5472]

You know, it's just about to that point...after all that has gone on, she's not worthy of anyone's vote as the nominee. I have gone from listening to her, supporting her up until late November, to begrudgingly accepting that I may have to vote for her in the general election, to asking myself how can I ever pull the lever for this insanity she and her campaign have spun. It's reached a point where everything coming out is despicable which translates into a total loss of any shred of respect.

[tehriaz]

yeah, when you pull shit like getting in the way of your opponent's supporters' right to vote:

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/3/12/121217/576

hooray obama!

[Loculi]

How dare Obama expect Clinton to live up to her word! Ignore everything else, Hillary needs these states to continue her Quixotic quest to subvert the will of the other 48 states.

[HumeSkeptic]

That's good. Looks like Obama camp is systematically piling up delegates and popular vote, while Hillary camp is busy trying desperate and self-defeating tactics of race baiting and suggesting that McCain is better than Obama. Both those tactics please only the most fanatical Hillary supporters, while pissing off the rest of the voters. And one doesn't win just by pleasing the small number of fanatical supporters.

While I always preferred Obama over Hillary, I used to be quite fond of both Bill and Hillary Clinton. Now I'm pissed at both of them. And, I know that many other fair minded people feel the same way.