Obama Camp: Our Popular Vote Lead Is Pretty Insurmountable Too

Buttressed by a victory in last night's Mississippi primary, Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign claimed on Wednesday that it not only had a pledged delegate lead that would be hard to reverse, but also a popular vote advantage that Sen. Hillary Clinton would have difficulties overcoming.

"Although we don't think this is the barometer on which the race will be decided, we have a big popular vote lead," said campaign manager David Plouffe. "Our popular vote lead is up around a million. Which is obviously a significant edge and one they would have a very tough time reversing."

Plouffe's estimation was much higher than those offered by news outlets. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama leads Clinton by slightly more than 700,000 votes after 40-plus primary elections. That number drops to just over 400,000 when including Florida's results (in Michigan Obama was not on the ballot).

The difference between these estimates and those from the Obama camp, Plouffe offered, was due to the fact that many of the caucus states had yet to tally their popular votes. In Texas, he offered as an example, "we project to pick up a 120,000 popular vote advantage [in the caucus], which is larger than what Senator Clinton got out of the primary." In Mississippi, meanwhile, Plouffe estimated that Obama would have a net gain of approximately 100,000 votes.

With only ten primary elections left in the nomination process there is an increasing likelihood that Obama will end up with a relatively substantial pledge delegate lead. After Mississippi's election his campaign estimated that he had not only erased the losses he had in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island, but now bested Clinton by 161 such delegates.

Faced with these obstacles, the Clinton camp has tried to refocus the political spotlight on the popular vote; the logic being that if they could overtake Obama in that account they could make a strong case to super delegates -- the party insiders who vote independently for candidates during the Democratic convention -- to come to their side.

"They are trying to hold the popular vote out there because they can't overtake the delegate lead," said Plouffe. "They are trying to create a diversion there... But our lead is bigger than most counts have it."

The confidence of Plouffe's delegate and popular vote projections stood in contrast the pessimism with which he discussed the upcoming Pennsylvania primary. In a heavy dose of expectations-setting -- something the Obama camp has been accused, by supporters, of lacking -- he argued that the state was tailored to Clinton's strengths. "They are the prohibitive favorite, they will campaign there very hard," Plouffe added. "We will try to win but our campaign will not be defined by Pennsylvania."

The Obama campaign also sent out a memo to reporters in the midst of the conference call. The document read:

The Clinton Campaign would like to focus your attention only on Pennsylvania - a state in which they have already declared that they are "unbeatable." But Pennsylvania is only one of 10 remaining contests, each important in terms of allocating delegates and ultimately deciding who are nominee will be.

Comments

[parkeradison]

It's certainly all true regarding Obama's considerable lead in both delegates and popular vote, but if Hillary does win in Pennsylvania she'll fight all the way to the convention.

[Ramus]

I sure wish Senator Clinton would graciously give up this race. The nominee needs to focus on figuring out how to stop Bush from invading Iran or Venzuela. Senator Clinton's 3 AM ad sure made me want to have a non-bellicose person like Senator Obama.. ..a cool head answering that phone, rather than a woman who wears a suit at 3 AM.

We need to stop paying attention to Sptizer and pay close attention to the Bush administration. They are preparing to cause more trouble and make Americans more fearful. Hey maybe they'll even cancel the election because so some sort of crisis somewhere..like Iran or Venzuela. Something's coming down the pike I fear.

[FullChat]

Many observers feel that neither Democratic candidate can reach the needed number of 2,025 delegates before the convention, and are settling in for a long and dirty run to the convention. They’re forgetting the uncommitted super delegates – all 353 of them. Obama has 1,592 delegates, including 1,385 pledged and 207 super delegates. He needs 435 more delegates to win. If the remaining super delegates declared their support for Obama, he would only need 82 delegates in the remaining contests to win the nomination.

The role of the super delegate is to ensure that the party is putting forward the best candidate. Obama has a virtually insurmountable delegate lead, popular vote lead, and has won twice as many states as she has. If the super delegates feel that the best candidate has been selected and chose to endorse Obama, it will end this dirty campagn with Hillary.

McCain is loving this – watching the Dems do his work for him. The recent attacks on Obama by Hillary have crossed the line, and she and her supporters must be convinced that she cannot win the nomination, she will not be the VP, and she should put on her Big Girl panties and deal with it. Meanwhile, the Democratic party can start spending its energy on McCain…

BUT if Obama loses in November (think Rove), then Hillary gets to run in 2012 - after we get to know McCain. Surely after 12 years of insanity, any Dem would be elected in 2012.

[Countess]

The popular vote is meaningless. The caucus states don't count. The little states don't count. The red states don't count. The black vote doesn't count. The delegates don't count. Hillsry is standing up for white people and this will count in Pennsylvania.

[Grunty1]

If HIllary can't win the popular vote or the delegate vote, she is hoping to win the super delegate vote. If she can't do that, maybe she'll do like George can go for the best of 5 vote.

[go4thegold]

Well put, Countess. Hopefully soon Hillary C won't count either. D.

[shy99]

LOL, very funny!!

[pheepher]

What a wonderful post by you and how sad for you.

[piompino]

Yikes! "Hillsry is standing up for white people."...that is the ugliest statement I have ever read in a very very long time, and that is why Hillary is NOT standing up for me...I take this all back if I missed the sarcasm of your comment.

[justbecause]

Right On! GO OBAMA!

[robynuva]

This is the question I have. If she wins Pennsylvania, then what? She will be 1 for 10 from today to the convention. How do you parlay that into momentum, a lead, or anything that matters?

Winning big states if fine, but not enough to win a nomination, and if Obama carries CA and NY in the general (which he will, any democrat would) then he can bring together a coalition of states to win the election. All the research says so.

So what exactly is her argument for staying in?

[toldyaso]

"But Pennsylvania is only one of 10 remaining contests, each important in terms of allocating delegates and ultimately deciding who are nominee will be."

And the devil is in the details. He focuses on all 10 states because all 10 are important and she only cares about one. The one where she has the advantage.

[Caolas]

"Are nominee" should read "our nominee". "Are" Public Education system at work, i'm sure.

And before anyone gets the wrong idea, I support Obama. I just dont own any of those rose colored glasses that both Clinton and some Obama supporters cant seem to take off.

[lornejl]

Peculiar times we are living in.

[ShelW]

What really should count are the delegates... this is a race for delegates.

No, wait... what should really count aren't the delegates, it's the popular vote. Yeah.. the popular vote is what matters.

No, no, wait.. we should ignore the smaller states and the total elected delegates and only focus on the Large states.. yeah, that's it!

Wait, we should also forget about caucuses... hey, who invented caucuses anyways? Nobody asked Hillary if she was alright with running in a caucus.... they shouldn't really count, and small states shouldn't really count, and hey, we need to protect the vote of the people by counting Florida's vote, which everyone agreed would NOT count, but then, after we protect the rights of individuals to vote and have their vote count, we may override their vote by getting Super Delegates to switch the delegate count over to our side, which would, in effect, disenfranchise ALL voters, but hey, at least we made sure that the voters in Florida had their vote count...

Huh????

[TheRagingModerate]

Caolas, I agree totally -- thanks for beating me to it. I hate being a grammar dork by myself!

[surfcitysteven]

First time on a blog, kid? I remember the first time I posted, couple years ago. Yeah, I was all about correcting typos too. Hey, if that's what you are into, I saw quite a few on page one. Have at it kid.

[PinkoAttic]

At last, some spin out of the Obama campaign. Truth of the matter is, if he can get to 10 points under her or less in Pennsylviania, it will be an achievement given her considerable advantages in that state. He should " rejoice " in any result better than 45-55 in her favor, and let the press know that such is his real target. Spend any extra cash on Indiana (Illinois neighbor) and getting a bigger share of the N. Carolina vote. If he wins those two by 10 points each, then most will declare the race dead.

Of course, who knows what effect Hillary's tax and disclosure issues will have on the Pennsylvania vote.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

what happened to one person / one vote? You can't count Texas voters twice. The popular vote in texas is based on the primary. Not the stupid caucus they had after the voting finished.

Does Obama think in the general election in the fall he would get a caucus after the vote closes in Texas to try to catch up to McCain?

[thomdavis1]

"That number drops to just over 400,000 when including Florida's results (in Michigan Obama was not on the ballot)."

but also according to realclearpolitics.com, even adding the popular vote count from MI still gives Obama a lead of just under 80,000! pretty good for someone who wasn't even on the ballot

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[Neocon187]

Hillary's camp knows that she's behind on all counts.
In her desparation, she's already thrown the kitchen sink; expect the bathroom sink followed by the toilet and some septic tank sludge before the Pennsylvania primary is over.

[StephenS]

The Obama camp plans to count the same voters TWICE in Texas - by the tens of thousands.

They says that in Texas they expect to pick up a "120,000 popular vote advantage" in the caucuses - but EVERY voter in the Texas caucuses was a primary voter who was allowed to vote a 2nd time if they made it to the Tuesday night caucuses.

And as I pointed out, the results of the caucuses as projected by CNN are as if the votes of 420,000 Clinton voters (29%) were thrown out by the caucuses. That's how big the difference is between having everyone vote in the primaries but having Obama having a much better organization fior the caucuses.

[EspritDeVoltaire]

Unfortunately, that won't stop Senator Cujo, I mean Clinton. I'm convinced now she knows she can't win, but is hanging in for the sheer vindictiveness of it. It appears if she can't be president as a Democrat that no one should have that ability.

As her campaign spokespeople grow nastier and more outlandish, punishment for Senator Obama is the only conceivable motive. Destroying the village in order to "save" it seems to be her staff's marching orders. Just imagine the havoc she could reek if she did win the presidency. The whole world could be in flames in no time. She could triumph where George W. Bush so far has failed, in creating an actual World War III.

[klimtone]

I've watched with interest how Michigan and Florida are reported by the media. CNN for example has Michigan and Florida colored as "Hillary Country" on their big board. Here, Florida is mentioned and counted as Michigan didn't have Barack Obama on the ballot. When you have an election based on the premise that it will not count for anything as in Florida I hardly think that it is a valid primary and I wish to see Michigan AND Florida not counted by anyone.

Clinton having her name on the ballots in both states has been called a "shrewd move" by pundits, but I for one would hate to see such duplicity rewarded