In Battleground States, Obama And Clinton Outraising McCain

As Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton duke it out over the rights to take on John McCain, conventional wisdom holds that they are damaging each other's odds in the general election.

But if the fundraising statistics from key battleground states provide any indication of popular support, both Democratic candidates seem well positioned to take on their GOP competitor come November.

According to data compiled by Spotfire Division of software firm TIBCO, Obama and Clinton have raised nearly twice as much as McCain in the traditionally important electoral states through the February filing period.

In Ohio, which proved so crucial in the 2004 race, both Obama and Clinton are out-raising McCain by hundreds of thousands of dollars. Obama has raised nearly $800,000 from donors within the state; Clinton has nearly $600,000 and McCain has just over $350,000.

The same financial disparities hold true in Florida, the swing state of 2000. There, Clinton has raised more than $3 million dollars; Obama has topped $2 million and McCain has raised $1.6 million.

In Pennsylvania, the third leg of the political battleground triumvirate, Obama has raised nearly $1.5 million dollars; Clinton has raised more than $1.2 million, and McCain has yet to top $600,000.

The paradigm also holds true in Wisconsin and Missouri. McCain, however, has raised more money (albeit only $10,000 more than Obama) in Michigan.

The numbers illustrate what continues to be a ripe political playing field for all Democratic candidates. Indeed, throughout the primary process, the Democratic Party has - to a large extent - proven more energized and interested in the election. Public opinion polls show that Democrats simply feel there is more at stake in 2008.

But can these swing-state fundraising figures prove predicative of electoral results?

On a very basic level: yes, somewhat. Donations to candidates, and more specifically the number of donors each candidate recruits, serves as an indicator of popular support.

"People who contribute money are going to vote," said Massie Ritsch, spokesperson for the Center for Responsive Politics. "I don't think anyone is making a contribution to a candidate and then staying home on Election Day. Because of that you can draw some conclusion about a candidate's popular support based on the money that they've raised... When you are looking at campaign contributors you are looking at some of the most engaged people out there. Where they are putting their money may be an indicator where their friends and neighbors may put their votes."

But there are shortcomings to this formula as well. According to Ritsch, less than one percent of the population makes a political donations of more than $200. That number rises to 4 percent when considering all contribution sizes. Some of these people, however, donate to more than just one candidate - either out of a desire to help everyone in the party or to curry favor with multiple campaigns.

"Frankly I don't think there is much to be said or done with in regards to analysis of fundraising in swing states," said Thomas Mann, a scholar at the Brookings Institute. "You raise funds where the money is. Bank robbers go to banks, because that is where the money is. Similarly, candidates go to states not because they are swing states but because there s fundraising there."