Stocks In Longest Funk Since 1970s

Stocks In Longest Funk Since 1970s

Wall Street Journal   |  E.S. BROWNING   |   March 26, 2008 09:05 AM


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Over the past 200 years, the stock market's steady upward march occasionally has been disrupted for long stretches, most recently during the Great Depression and the inflation-plagued 1970s. The current market turmoil suggests that we may be in another lost decade.

The stock market is trading right where it was nine years ago. Stocks, long touted as the best investment for the long term, have been one of the worst investments over the nine-year period, trounced even by lowly Treasury bonds.

The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, the basis for about half of the $1 trillion invested in U.S. index funds, finished at 1352.99 on Tuesday, below the 1362.80 it hit in April 1999. When dividends and inflation are factored into returns, the S&P 500 has risen an average of just 1.3% a year over the past 10 years, well below the historical norm, according to Morningstar Inc. For the past nine years, it has fallen 0.37% a year, and for the past eight, it is off 1.4% a year. In light of the current wobbly market, some economists and market analysts worry that the era of disappointing returns may not be over.

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I Loved Funk! Bootsie Collins for head of the Fed, Chaka Khan for Treasury, and Sly and the Family Stone as President James Brown's (he's comin' back!) cabinet--right on!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:34 PM on 03/26/2008

Weren't we involved in another unwinnable war back in the 70s?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:55 PM on 03/26/2008
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Stocks need to double to stay even with the Bush Dollar (.40 cents).

The European single currency breached 1.57 dollars on Wednesday after a buoyant reading on business sentiment in Germany, the biggest economy in the 15-nation eurozone, analysts said.

In European trading, the euro climbed to 1.5717 dollars from 1.5647 in New York late on Tuesday.

Shortly after Bush took office the Euro was around .90 cents now 1.57, yikes.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:43 AM on 03/26/2008
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Wealth is created in an economy through "value added" processes with multiplier effects and in international trade through "comparative advantage". Almost any other activity deals in the transference of wealth, not wealth creation.


Over the last twenty plus years, our economy has become increasingly reliant on financial instruments dealing in wealth transference rather than wealth generation. This can be observed in WS activity per the WSJ article and in the banking and finance sectors. Wealth transference can also be observed in income data available from the BLS. In terms of 2000 dollars, middle class incomes have either decreased or stagnated over the past decade. Despite this, disparity with top income brackets has increased. Because approximately 2/3 rds of our economy (see definition for GDP) is based on consumer expenditures, falling incomes for a majority of consumers, not sufficiently offset by additional consumers, would indicate that GDP couldn't increase indefinitely.


The FED's actions allow the "vacuum" sector of our economy to continue sucking wealth from the pockets of both homeowners and taxpayers in order to save investments of the wealthy. While the FED's actions have temporarily prevented an economic calamity, they have not treated the root cause of our problems. Until we return to an economy that generates real wealth with increasing incomes for a majority of its members rather than wealth transference that creates income disparity, we can anticipate that economic fallout will not only continue, but increase in severity.


PRODUCTION EQUIVALENT TO CONSUMPTION.
INCOME DIVERSITY, NOT DISPARITY.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:39 AM on 03/26/2008
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Spot on, Greedy.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:03 PM on 03/27/2008
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Thanks Patriot. Hopefully this response will post faster than my first response which took nearly two days to clear.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:09 PM on 03/27/2008

Guess wall street forgot who made it good for them, the workers in manufacturing who produced real goods...wall street shipped those jobs to foreign countries to exploit the labor there. The blowback isn't going to be pretty and it will take decades for those countries to bring 'the returns' you were hoping for.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:24 AM on 03/26/2008
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And that FC, is nailing a summation in a nutshell. Well said!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:15 PM on 03/26/2008

manufacturing jobs have been in decline for forty years yet the stock market has boomed many years since. Well said Atlanta Joe.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:17 PM on 03/26/2008
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Joe,

"manufacturing jobs have been in decline for forty years"

Is not an accurate statement. Beginning approximately in the 1950s, but prior to the 1980s, manufacturing jobs in the US mainly stayed in the US but migrated from the NE west and south. With the advent of interstates, jobs migrated to the west and to the south with the availability of cheap electricity, AC, and post WWII government relocation programs. This beget the rise of the rust belt. Yet, total manufacturing jobs in the US actually increased per the BLS.

After 1979/1980, manufacturing jobs in the US began to decline. The loss of manufacturing jobs accelerated post 2000 with more than 3,000,000 direct manufacturing jobs being lost since 2000.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:26 AM on 03/27/2008
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Watch out, NY, you just might get stuck with the nickname "Funkytown" replacing "The Big Apple."

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:03 AM on 03/26/2008
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It still a suckers bet right now. The large funds dumped gold and silver contracts and lowered the prices so I've snatched up a bit more. Before this is over precious metals will still rule.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:38 AM on 03/26/2008
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Tee-hee, me, too, MrC. Notice the prices rising again the last couple of days?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:29 PM on 03/26/2008

I don't remember the range of stock index extremes between 1966 and 1982, but it was very narrow. The bubble and bust and bubble chart between 1999 and today shows very wide extremes. The overall economic and investment climates were polar opposites, if I remember correctly.

If the Wall Street Journals page 1 chart that I assume this HuffPost article is based were started in January 2000 instead of January 1999, then the investor (in the index) would be well behind instead of just even. If the chart had been a full decade, the investor would have still been ahead. If the chart had covered a full 16 years similar to the flat period mentioned above or just the last 6 years, then the investor would be well ahead.

On the other hand, if we wait a few years, we may find we just finished a 16-year period with no growth. The US and world financial picture is deteriorating in plain view of those who say not to worry.

If... if... if... If pigs had wings, they probably still wouldn't be able to fly. "Buy and forget" is not an investment strategy that will work regardless of what the vaunted financial advisors and schemers would have you believe.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:43 AM on 03/26/2008
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What did you do, HuffPo, make a phone call? This WSJ story was "for paying customers only" not even 30 minutes ago...now, its out there for everybody!

Thanks!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:37 AM on 03/26/2008
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