Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter

JEANNINE AVERSA | March 27, 2008 06:01 PM EST | AP

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WASHINGTON — The economy nearly sputtered out at the end of the year and probably is faring even worse now amid continuing housing, credit and financial woes.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the gross domestic product, or GDP, increased at a feeble 0.6 percent annual rate from October through December. The reading, unchanged from a previous estimate a month ago, provided stark evidence of just how much the economy has weakened. In the previous three months, the economy had a sizzling 4.9 percent growth rate.

The GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States and is the best barometer of economic health.

Many economists say they believe growth in the current January-through-March quarter will be even weaker than the 0.6 percent figure from late 2007. A growing number says the economy actually may be shrinking now. Under one rough rule, the economy needs to contract for six straight months to be considered in a recession. The government will release its estimate for first-quarter GDP in late April.

"The economy just kept its head above water" in the fourth quarter, said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight. "We think that GDP will decline, albeit slightly, during the first half of 2008," he said. "The first half outlook is bleak."

Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, in an interview with The Associated Press, said, "We know the first quarter will be difficult."

On Wall Street, the GDP report pulled stocks down, with the Dow Jones industrials falling 120.40 points.

In a second report, fewer people signed up for unemployment benefits last week, although that did not change the broader picture of a deteriorating job market. The Labor Department said jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 366,000, a better showing than many economists forecast. Still, unemployment is expected to rise this year given all the problems affecting the economy.

The newly released fourth-quarter GDP figure matched analysts' expectations.

Thursday's report was evidence of the fallout from the collapse in the housing market, which has dragged down housing prices, pushed home foreclosures up to record highs and has led to a glut of unsold homes.

Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 25.2 percent on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, the biggest cut in 26 years.

To limit the damage, the Federal Reserve has cut a key interest rate over the past two months by the deepest in a quarter-century. After the crash of the fifth-largest investment firm, Bear Stearns, the Fed resorted to its greatest expansion of lending authority since the 1930s. Big securities firms temporarily can go to the Fed directly for loans _ a privilege that had been afforded only to commercial banks.

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Thursday called for an overhaul of financial regulations. Rival Hillary Rodham Clinton proposed a new job retraining program to bolster the economy.

Consumers boosted buying at a 2.3 percent pace in the fourth quarter. But businesses cut back sharply on their inventories of unsold goods. That shaved 1.79 percentage points off fourth-quarter GDP, the most in more than two years.

Spending by businesses on equipment and software, meanwhile, rose at a pace of 3.1 percent in the final quarter of last year.

There was a bright spot in the mostly gloomy report, however. Sales of U.S. goods and services to other countries grew at a 6.5 percent pace. U.S. exports have been helped by the sinking value of the dollar, which makes U.S. goods less expensive to foreign buyers. The dollar recently plunged to record lows against the euro and has fallen sharply against the Japanese yen.

An inflation measure linked to the GDP report showed that overall prices increased at a rate of 3.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

Another gauge showed that core prices _ excluding food and energy _ grew at a rate of 2.5 percent at the end of last year. That was down from a previous estimate of a 2.7 percent pace but was up from the prior quarter's 2 percent growth rate.

The new core inflation figure is above the Fed's comfort zone _ the upper bound of which is a 2 percent inflation rate.

Although the Fed's No. 1 job is trying to save the economy from a deep and prolonged recession, it is also keeping close tabs on inflation and soaring energy prices.

Oil prices shot past $107 a barrel on Thursday. Gasoline prices have marched higher, too.

The combination of slowing economic growth and rising inflation make the Fed's job more difficult. It also has raised fears the country may be headed for a bout of stagflation, a scenario the U.S. hasn't experienced since the 1970s. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, however, has said that's not the case.

The Fed's rate reductions along with the government's $168 billion economic aid plan should help revive economic growth in the second half of this year, economists said.

Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, was less optimistic. "The recovery in growth I had expected in the second half of this year may be delayed," he said.


 
 

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- MetalCanuck See Profile I'm a Fan of MetalCanuck

This will keep happening with CFR candidates like McCain, Clinton and Obama. We need to be voting for guys like Nader, Kucinich, Especially Ron Paul ( he is Taylor made to help these problems) and Gravel is great too. But instead America voting for these crappy CFR corrupt treasonous idiots.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:44 PM on 03/28/2008
- vippy See Profile I'm a Fan of vippy

With the price of rice going up by 30%, wheat has already gone up. I saw a plan for the future, where
each country is only allowed to produce one grain of something. You see where this is heading?
They will control every ounce of everything, no fair market, they call it free market, freeing themselves
from restrictions.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:00 PM on 03/28/2008
- MilwaukeeDan See Profile I'm a Fan of MilwaukeeDan

Their numbers are as bogus as those "weapons of mass distruction". The article also states that Sen Obama called for regulations(a bit late senator) and Mrs. Clinton called for job retraining(something I heard way back during Reagans presidency). Sure Mrs. Clinton, we can all retrain to work the registers at Wal Mart, or maybe I can play CEO of Citibank. And Sen McBraindead doesn't have a clue about the economy or how it works(he never had a real job). With people like this running the country, I'm going to get mine and then I'm going to get the f*ck out of here.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:38 AM on 03/28/2008
- MajorKong See Profile I'm a Fan of MajorKong

So how's that "Bush Boom" working out?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:40 PM on 03/27/2008
- GreedyOldPsychopaths See Profile I'm a Fan of GreedyOldPsychopaths

"Production" not just "Consumption".

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:42 PM on 03/27/2008
- WIpatriot See Profile I'm a Fan of WIpatriot

Brought to you by the Dept. of Lying Statistics

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:38 PM on 03/27/2008
- GreedyOldPsychopaths See Profile I'm a Fan of GreedyOldPsychopaths

"There are three kinds of lies " Lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Misattributed to Twain

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:47 PM on 03/27/2008
- WIpatriot See Profile I'm a Fan of WIpatriot

One of my faves, GOP.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:58 PM on 03/27/2008
- ZingoBonMot See Profile I'm a Fan of ZingoBonMot

I hear AT&T is hiring. hahahahaha

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:45 AM on 03/27/2008
- wolf58 See Profile I'm a Fan of wolf58

fox busines has said that this good and because it is still in a postive we are not in a recession. Lets see third quarter GDP was 5 percent last quarter .6 percent. So fox business is like fox news both full of shit

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:24 AM on 03/27/2008
- Sumocat See Profile I'm a Fan of Sumocat

It should be noted that GDP includes government expenditures, which has gone through the roof thanks to the wars. It also includes personal expenditures on goods, which have gone up in price. Both of these rely heavily on borrowed money. Essentially, we are spending increasing amounts of money that we don't have. On the surface, this makes the economy look good, but at a heavy cost that will eventually be collected.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:48 AM on 03/27/2008
- ZingoBonMot See Profile I'm a Fan of ZingoBonMot

Like using one credit card to pay off another. Sooner or later you run out of cards.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:44 AM on 03/27/2008
- WIpatriot See Profile I'm a Fan of WIpatriot

We'll just make more!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:59 PM on 03/27/2008
- GreedyOldPsychopaths See Profile I'm a Fan of GreedyOldPsychopaths

"In the prior quarter, the economy clocked in at a sizzling 4.9 percent growth rate."


Chinese proverb says: "Candle burn brightest just before it go out".

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:44 AM on 03/27/2008
- Mark2100 See Profile I'm a Fan of Mark2100

Damn Chicken Little's. Haliburton stock has quadrupled in the last 7 years - the economy rocks!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:44 AM on 03/27/2008
- drkazmd65 See Profile I'm a Fan of drkazmd65

Hardly a surprise here folks,...

When nobody but the upper couple of percentiles of citizens has ANY money to spare in a consumer-driven economy like ours - sales and thus economic growth take a beating.

And those upper couple of percent aren't keeping us all afloat - that's for damned sure.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:36 AM on 03/27/2008
- outnow See Profile I'm a Fan of outnow

The physical economy is not producing agricultural products and manufactured products, just financial services. Currency trading and futures markets will not yield any tangible product. It's time to run the fat cats out of town. Hit with a lawsuit on the way out. Abolish the Fed. Tell there speculators that they will have to work for a living. Their children will have to become educated and work so why not begin right now? No more wars, public works projects, mandatory two years civic service, no more surfing the internet and watching TV all day, no more walkmans, Playstations and video games.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:34 AM on 03/27/2008
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