Obama Gets Pennsylvania Boost From Expectations, Polls

Chris Cillizza writes for the Washington Post:

With 19 days left before Pennsylvania Democrats (finally) go to the polls to pick between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, conventional wisdom says the contest is Clinton's to lose. BUT, "How big will she win?" and "What will it mean?" are questions of huge importance.

The Fix has been pondering those very questions and, through conversations with both neutral and aligned politicos, we've come to a conclusion: Clinton's margin of victory in Pennsylvania matters -- and it matters a lot. There are both symbolic and practical concerns tied to the percentage of her vote -- concerns that help explain why 59 percent would be a titanic victory and 52 percent could be labeled a loss.

Read his full piece here. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling has released a new poll showing Obama ahead in Pennsylvania.

Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.

Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race. ...

He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton's 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.

Three other recent polls show Obama gaining ground but Clinton maintaining her lead by anywhere from 5 to 12 points.

Comments

[seepee]

I guess Sen. Obama is not your fathers politician – kissing babies and taking photos with ordinary folks
– But then again, would it be different if the the overzealous Philly fanatic was a donor?
HTTP://WWW.NYDAILYNEWS.COM/NEWS/POLITICS/2008/04/03/2008-0403_BARACK_OBAMA_GETS_SNIPPY_WITH_OVERZEALOU.HTML

*** Barack Obama gets snippy with overzealous man trying to score a photo ******

BY MICHAEL SAUL
DAILY NEWS POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
HTTP://WWW.NYDAILYNEWS.COM/NEWS/POLITICS/2008/04/03/2008-04-03_BARACK_OBAMA_GETS_SNIPPY_WITH_OVERZEALOU.HTML

[James4HRC]

Hillary's going to win PA big... Mark my words...

He is certainly buying votes with money collected by deluded fans, but Americans are smart, and the spell lasts only a little while.

A vote for Hillary is a vote for your future security and well being.

[tess08]

Hilaryous is beseeching her supporters for more and more "campaign" money all the while whining that Obama is outraising her 4:1!
Hilaryous: Please give to my honest but mismanaged campaign O blue-haired ladies and blue collared workers, you guys really don't need that extra cash.........

because I, Hilary (no longer Rodham) CLINTON cannot and will not spend any more of my own hard earned cash (yes, we only have a paltry $109,000,000). So please give, and give generously, I NEED TO PAY MARK, he just lost his deal with the Colombians---and damn you pesky Ohio vendors that we still owe $$$ to, they should be honored to call my debts to them a donation to the Hilary Human Fund!

[KINOKO]

Hillary's going to lose PA big... Mark my words...

He is certainly not buying votes with money collected by his voters,because Americans are too smart for that, and Hillarys spell lasts only a little while.

A vote for Hillary is a vote for your future insecurity and lack of well being.

[Xspackle]

A vote for Hillary is getting increasingly lonely here in PA. Or haven't you seen the polls.

Do you guys really believe in magic, that just saying an incantation over and over makes it true?

Hillarious.

[kettletop]

Americans are smart? I can think of a couple of exceptions...
Obama isn't some sort of magician--he is man who has inspired not just the ordinary people who send in $25 or $50 at a time through his website but also the loyalty of an excellent team that has run a well organized campaign. He has inspired them not just to contribute to his campaign but also to school projects in Pennsylvania in the "Celebrate The Democralypse!" The Stephen Colbert Pennsylvania Straw Poll That Makes A Difference

When Stephen Colbert ran for president, supporters donated $66,000 to South Carolina classrooms in his honor. Do Senators Clinton and Obama have the keystones to do for the Keystone State what the Colbert Nation did for the Palmetto State? Let's find out.

Given in honor of Barack Obama: $107,659 by 1518 people impacting 21439 students

Given in honor of Hillary Clinton $16,844 by 146 people impacting 4244 students.

If that is something we deluded fans were ensorcled to do (even though no money goes to either candidate) then there should be more Barack Obamas out there.

Sorry your candidate isn't doing well. I hope she recovers after Obama is the nominee.

[TruthIsAll]

On Super Tuesday, Obama won the Alabama primary by 56.2-41.8. It has been said that between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is just like Alabama. If so, Obama will close the deal on April 22. With the Casey (D-PA) endorsement, who would bet against Obama taking PA?
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupPA.htm

[TruthIsAll]

After allocating undecided voters, Obama is leading in PA...

Clinton has been a public figure since 1992 and Obama has been one since 2004. Therefore, Hillary can be considered as an "incumbent" and Obama the challenger. Historically, challengers win at least 3/4 of the undecided vote - especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Clinton's negatives are higher than Obama's. Clinton has a 47-42% lead in the latest 5 PA polls and 11% are currently undecided. Allocating 75% of undecideds to Obama, he is currently leading the adjusted 5-poll average by 50.3-49.7%.
Here is the 5-poll moving average trend graph:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/GallupTracking_30004_image001.png
Here is the data:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

[nellie]

I'm very skeptical of an Obama lead in Pennsylvania at this point. Maybe as we get closer to the primary, he will have campaigned enough in the state to have closed the gap, but I really doubt that after, what, one week of campaigning, he has overtaken Clinton.

[KimberlyKay]

HuffPost's Pick

I agree. The fundamental factor when thinking about a lead by Senator Obama over the more well-known formidable Senator Clinton, is did Senator Obama have enough time to achieve it?
I never thought Senator Obama had enough time to surpass Senator Clinton's 13 point lead in New Hampshire after Iowa. I never thought Senator Obama had enough time to surpass Senator Clinton's 18 point lead in California after South Carolina, especially since early voting began January 2, 2008 -- before Iowa! Time is the factor to watch. I don't know if 6 weeks is enough time, but it is enough time to erode Senator Clinton's beginning lead. Sometimes I wish this campaign could proceed in each state for months (of course, varying by state size). Isn't it important that the voters know who and what they are voting for before they cast their ballots? Perhaps the primary season isn't too long, perhaps it is too short -- but then I think about this and realize a longer primary season would just be longer. But, I always want Senator Obama to have more time to tell the voters who he is and what is message and vision for America are and how we can all work together to achieve real, transformative change.

[Bilbo983]

I really appreciate the way Senator Obama handles his campaigning. Like the way he leaves all American voters to decide who they're writing their campaign donation checks, he is also not pandering to special interest groups, just as a showpiece to please special interest crowds to win votes. He has been speaking to groups that represent America in divesity. He speaks to crowds of listeners who gather togetrher, whatsoever their culutural roots, their financial standing, their gender or gender preferences, their faith, and color. This is so heartwarming as it is important that America can finally hope for a President who treat ALL Americans as "All for one, and one for all" instead of kissing up to specific groups with their specific interest to gratify only themselves, not the nation as a whole.

Obama has clearly shown he's for the People, and that the American People are under one united roof!

[GravitonX]

Hillary, like Gov. Ed Rendell, is playing to the white Pennsylvanian anti-Black vote hard. Can't be "openly racist" ....gotta send a wink-wink and the secret signs. Play those demographics, Hillary.

[Crozier]

Yes, I pray that Pennsylvania is won by Senator Obama. I would believe that the Party Poobahs would force Clinton to suspend her campaign. ALL REAL DEMOCRATS know that HillandBill are Republicans in drag DLC DINO's. The SD's among them know that they are scorched earth trying to elect McCain like Lieberman their DLC co-founder.

It is time to tell the Clintons that enough is enough and that we NEED President Obama.

[kburlz]

Do the right thing Pennsylvania and I will wear a Roethlisberger jersey everyday until Obama is president.

[amst]

Boy, I would love to believe this poll, but everybody, pro Obama or not, all the pundits are ALL predicting that she WILL win PA. I hope they are wrong, and sometimes wonder and hope for a real surprise here. I hope we continue to hear how he's gaining in PA. From what "they" say, Clinton must win by double digits to make it a good win. We'll see, but keep us posted for anymore momentum leaning toward Obama.

[resonate]

Because all the pundits get paid by people who have a vested interest in the Clinton presidency. It means their investments will be safe but screw the rest of America. If she wins there is no difference between Bush/McCai­n/Clinton. The same cronies, corporations and funds will profit while the same people get screwed. US!

[wmbear]

BA RACK! BA RACK!! BA RACK!!! Yeah.

[flabingo]

Bloggers have strong opinions. Go to Intrade.com and put your money where your mouth is!!!
You may be surprised

[Thurber]

or go to markets.ra­smussenrep­orts.com to put your *fake* money where your mouth is.

[530Rose]

As far as Reverend Wright goes, on the night Martin Luther King was killed, he was working on a sermon called "Why America May be Going to Hell." How were Wrights comments different? In fact, the way that America in general has treated everyone not a white American male is worthy of a little strong criticism.

[wmbear]

AND HE WAS CERTAINLY RIGHT ABOUT AMERICAN GOING TO HELL. We still are -- right in the smack middle of the process....

[resonate]

Im appreciate Wrights criticism but the politicians see it as a tool. "How dare this man delude the holy sanctity of this land we call America! The land of the free, home of the brave blah blah blah." Some politicians use those tools to entice frenzy and get everyone jumping around like the apes we have so much in common with. Some dont (like Obama) in an effort to raise the consciousness of the people and move beyond the beatings we have received from those tools in the past. He many not be everything we need but he is the BEST we can get this election around and I hope people wake the hell up.

[ciscobean]

As the philosopher Pogo said, "I have seen the enemy, and he is us”. As for all the people continuing to harp on Wright's sound bites, I submit, "Thou dost protest too much."

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.htm
Obama currently leads Clinton by 1415-1253 in pledged delegates.
For Clinton to catch Obama, she needs 64% of the vote in the remaining primaries.
On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246-165).
Since then, Obama has gained 63; Clinton just 9.
Her lead has been cut from 81 to 27 (255-228).
If Obama wins 50% of the pledged delegates in the remaining primaries, he will need just 96 (31%) of the remaining 311 super delegates to clinch the nomination.
He's won 88% of the last 72 SDs.

[Merin]

Nice numerical analysis.

Really, though, all Senator Clinton's campaign can be waiting for is in the next few months that Senator Obama SOMEHOW pisses on a crucifix or praises the Nazi party for having good methods of politically cleaning house . . .

in short, some HIGHLY IMPROBABLE gaff that is impossible to spin away that will make him have to drop out of the race. That's her only shot.

[resonate]

Or how about someone just stage another terrorist attack so we can go super-nationalist and install a fascist like McCain/Clinton? Close the borders, go farther down the war path, pump up the prison industrial complex and enjoy our freedumbs... All while turning a blind eye to what our government is actually doing.... G, I think I have heard this story before somewhere in say Germany. America is in a moment with extreme historic parallels to governments who in the past slipped into fascist rule without the public knowing. People need to wake up so we aren't the next country to start WWIII and slaughter people through our foreign policy. We are half way there with over 500,000 people slaughtered in Iraq. That isn't even counting our treatment of the people and rulers in Venezuela, Pakistan, Iran, Nicaragua, Columbia, Ecuador, the list goes on and on. Wake up and vote, protest, get out there and let them here you America! Our government needs a leash at least. Public oversight and some of that transparency Obama is talking about.

[brenner21]

Does anyone think for a *moment* that Hillary would say the things such "He can't win" and other insults and anti-Democratic rhetoric if Barack were white?

[S1m0n]

Do you think there's anything Hillary Clinton *wouldn't* say, if she thought it could bring her to victory?

Because I don't. She'd be as vicious if it was her own mother she was running against.

[akkadian]

too true....

[H.L. Mencken]

"Three other recent polls show Obama gaining ground but Clinton maintaining her lead by anywhere from 5 to 12 points". Obama folks -what reason the surrendipidty?

[justShareandbeNice]

Why is Obama gaining? Simple. People are seeking the truth, and the truth is finding them.

[cacique88]

When historians get around to writing about this period in history, Hillary's campaign will be covered as simply a War waged by the the old guard against a new generation of leaders wishing to turn the page on the politics of divisiveness. The new force in American politics will win. Why ? Because it is fertile, life giving versus the sterile, impotent narcissism of Hillary Clinton and her denizens: Rendell, Tubb Jones, Jackson Lee, Evan Bayh etc...

Barak Obama has sparked an unprecedented movement of people seeking new answers and willing to work for new solutions. He has brought together a diverse constituency of which 1,276,000 million donors is just the tip of the iceberg.

I am happy to be living in these times where a transformation beckons on the horizon.

spiritofob­ama.blogsp­ot.com

[ron071]

Let's hope that the Democrats of Penna. get the presidential campaign into gear by giving Obama the win and hence the fullest opportunity to convince America that we despertely need CHANGE in the process that has trampled upon the real interests of real citizens for too long. Let's get the insiders out and return government to the people. Barack Obama is the very best hope we have of wresting control. Penna. has the power to do this. I have hope that they will do this for our country at ths point in time. It will be historrical.

[Gebby]

most people paying close attention to the race are really moved by obama's candidacy. they are moving in his direction in pennsylvania just as they have in previous state contests.

[bobthebob]

True true. Never before has America been so motivated! Obama is moving all types ofpeople even the youth of today who will the leaders of tomorrow! Check this video out!


http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/michelle_obama_now_make_donati.html

[Lap48]

"When historians get around to writing about this period in history, Hillary's campaign will be covered as simply a War waged by the the old guard against a new generation of leaders wishing to turn the page on the politics of divisiveness. ..."

Bingo

As I've mentioned before, the irony is that the boomers, "never trust anyone over 30" generation--one in which hillary was very much a part of--is now in the position of being the hide-bound, dream debunking old fogies. Now, that's beyond deliciously rich

[ciscobean]

Whoa there, Lap48! You're stepping on this Boomer's toes. I'll admit to working very hard to elect Billary back in the day but am 100% Obama-bound now! Michelle for First Lady!

It's not the first time I've been profiled. Although I think she'd be better than ANY Republican, four years of HC would be like being dragged forward through barbed wire.