Obama Gets Pennsylvania Boost From Expectations, Polls

Chris Cillizza writes for the Washington Post:

With 19 days left before Pennsylvania Democrats (finally) go to the polls to pick between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, conventional wisdom says the contest is Clinton's to lose. BUT, "How big will she win?" and "What will it mean?" are questions of huge importance.

The Fix has been pondering those very questions and, through conversations with both neutral and aligned politicos, we've come to a conclusion: Clinton's margin of victory in Pennsylvania matters -- and it matters a lot. There are both symbolic and practical concerns tied to the percentage of her vote -- concerns that help explain why 59 percent would be a titanic victory and 52 percent could be labeled a loss.

Read his full piece here. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling has released a new poll showing Obama ahead in Pennsylvania.

Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.

Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race. ...

He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton's 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.

Three other recent polls show Obama gaining ground but Clinton maintaining her lead by anywhere from 5 to 12 points.

Comments

[WinceCarter]

Obama isn't ahead in Penn. These polls have become a bad joke.

[96Bravo]

These polls are always so up and down. Up in PA, down in IN. Still, it's interesting for him to be drawing closer with a few weeks still to go.