Obama Gets Pennsylvania Boost From Expectations, Polls

Chris Cillizza writes for the Washington Post:

With 19 days left before Pennsylvania Democrats (finally) go to the polls to pick between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, conventional wisdom says the contest is Clinton's to lose. BUT, "How big will she win?" and "What will it mean?" are questions of huge importance.

The Fix has been pondering those very questions and, through conversations with both neutral and aligned politicos, we've come to a conclusion: Clinton's margin of victory in Pennsylvania matters -- and it matters a lot. There are both symbolic and practical concerns tied to the percentage of her vote -- concerns that help explain why 59 percent would be a titanic victory and 52 percent could be labeled a loss.

Read his full piece here. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling has released a new poll showing Obama ahead in Pennsylvania.

Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.

Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race. ...

He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton's 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.

Three other recent polls show Obama gaining ground but Clinton maintaining her lead by anywhere from 5 to 12 points.

Comments

[EvoMan]

http://www.hillaryis44.org/

And they say Obama supporters are members of a deluded cult. Whew.

[4wehttam]

OMG!! I just checked out the site. YOU ARE NOT KIDDING!!!!!! Wow, there really are some HARDCORE feminists out there that DESPISE Obama for everything besides breathing........................Geez.

[Dustee]

That may be on trial now! LMAO!

'OBAMA 08'

[SavonarolaGirolamo]

NO! That site is a fake, it's a right wing plant, part of their plotting to support Hillary, like that repulsive drug-addled gasbag R.L. inciting Repug voters to vote for her. Don't be fooled. It's put up by right wing assholes who want to fool some people into thinking that the "ideas" expressed there really are those of real Hillary supporters. Turn your bullshit filter on and look again.

[EvoMan]

Kind of interesting how a right-wing plant site has contribute buttons that go directly to Senator Clinton's fundraising page.

Sorry, the site's legit.

[BTJ]

Hillary is not 44. So what is the meaning of that title? Another lie?
In fact, she is somewhere around 61. So if Obama wins the election and serves two terms, she would be almost as old as McCain when her 'turn' comes around again. Is that why she seems so determined to have McCain win if she cannot?

[MissT]

BTJ:
I believe this refers to the fact that if she is elected she will be the 44th president. Bush is 43.

[ProWarDem]

God DAMN the general results

[EvoMan]

Yeah, this is pretty much it:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/2/174343/2241/69/489110

[BrickSykes]

Thanks, EVOMAN, I've read enough to be thoroughly convinced that there is NO OTHER SANE CHOICE BUT OBAMA!!!!!!

Thank you SO MUCH! If its alright I'm gonna paste the dailykos link to Grassroots Mom in all my comments for the rest of the night, that is, okay?

Grassroots Mom's research needs to be spread all over the blogosphere! Thanks, EvoMan!

Brick

[EvoMan]

You're welcome. Send it out to everyone you know in PA.

[WLA]

That's great. LOL. Thanks.

[EvoMan]

Hey, there's way more on youtube. This one's good:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZmj3_OH2BU&feature=related

[Mollye]

Obama is pointing his finger at someone and smiling in this photo. Isn't that the same thing his supporters ridicule Hillary over? He must like her style, to be emulating.

[ChiGuy]

Seriously???
THAT is the best you can do???

[Waitaminute]

Yes, thats the best MOLLYE can do. How sad.

[linquistic]

LoL.LoL.

[EvoMan]

Wow, Grassroots Mom is on a roll:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/20/9851/40967

Okay, Clinton supporters. Read every one of the links I've posted thoroughly. Let it sink in. Then come back and tell us what is so great about your candidate other than her imagination. (A great imagination can be a good thing but evidently not in her case.)

[mediahack]

Here are the latest numbers:
(With Florida and Michigan)
Total Vote %
Obama 9,942,375 47%
Clinton 9,860,138 47%

[tea in the harbor]

So Obama leads even if Hillary is allowed to ignore her signed pledge? Even if you count states that her opponents didn't run in? Boy thats got to hurt!

[WLA]

The person in that post is obviously not voting "Democrat," they are voting "White."

[Davwbaird]

Our next President for all considerations will win. Obama!

[EvoMan]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/19/10343/0516

I've got to hand it to Grassroots Mom. She says it better than I can and my family shares some of what she's talking about.

[ChiGuy]

By the Fourth of July, we'll all be able to enjoy the holiday without the spectre of Hillary hanging over our heads.
She'll have finally conceded, and Obama will have moved on to the job of kicking McCain's backside back to AZ.

[AgathaX]

One of my favorite things about Obama is how in touch he is with the history of this nation and how often he alludes to various defining moments in that history. Every Fourth of July I listen to the Declaration of Indpendance being read on NPR and every year I cry--much to the amusement of my son. But if that "band of patriots" could pledge their lives and fortunes to one another and throw off the British Empire, certainly we can do the same to take back our country from the torture president and his enablers.

I can't wait til the Fourth.

[EvoMan]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/20/201332/807

For the naysayers out there. From a former Clinton supporter.

[ChiGuy]

Wow! Thanks, EvoMan!

Many people rely on articles like this not to tell them who to vote for necessarily, but to provide easily verifiable information.

This is one of the best researched that I've seen.

[ObamaSuperDelegate]

Very enlightening!

[highlyamused]

That was very cool to read. I am an Obama supporter and I didn't know most of that stuff. Thanks for posting.

[EvoMan]

Bookmark it. Send it out to everyone you know in PA.

[slow2]

EVO, this is the best; really good info and it should be all over the blogs AND the msm. We know it won't, but, thanks and will send it out.

[ChiGuy]

A perfect example of why polls simply cannot be trusted.

I hope like hell that Obama has, in fact, taken the lead. But I doubt it very much.

Any way it shakes-out, he's gonna do A LOT better in PA than people were predicting 2 weeks ago, and better than Hillary's campaign can withstand.

[ME08]

All incredibly ridiculous propaganda that is dead wrong...now that Florida and Michigan have a seat at the table thanks to DNC decision...this is no longer Obama's march to nomination...Obama is now the one who has to win big, everywhere, or it is over...unfortunately, the clock has run out on that chance...when Hillary says he cannot win, she is dead right...weep, Obamabots, your dream is now officially dead:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9350.html

[linquistic]

LOL...wishful thinking on your part i see.. .Even with FL and MI Obama is still ahead in delegates. Nice try having MI stand as it is when Obama wasn't even on the ballot!! Both campaigns have to agree on the proposal of the DNC before anything could take place.

[ChiGuy]

The "seat at the table" being the Credentials Committee you mean? Because that's the only important role Florida and Michigan will apparently play.
LOL!! A whole lot can happen there between now and the convention.

But by all means, keep Hill-Hope alive!!!

[EvoMan]

So you're advocating changing rules that were agreed to last year? Before FL and MI, HC said they wouldn't count. Oh and Harold Ickes helped put the rules in place.

Do you cheat at cards? You do, now don't you?

[Ironyfree]

yeah, for all those who are thinking "the delegates have been seated? why is this the first I've heard?"

They haven't.

They have been given a spot on three committees. They will be on the credentials committee (the one that chooses whether or not to seat the delegates at the convention.) but they will not be able to vote on the issue of seating the delegates.

So no, Hillary is not in the lead, Obama still is. Hillary still needs to run the table.

But thanks for trying!

[DaTracer]

"Under the DNC's interpretation of the rules, Florida members of the credentials committee would not be allowed to vote on the question of whether to seat Florida's delegates to the presidential nominating process."

They are not going to decide the nominee.

[rthom]

Are these the same guys who were wrong by 20 points in California? I saw an MSNBC piece the other day that said, "NBC said its pollsters oversampled African-Americans to get a more reliable cross tabulation on questions regarding Obama's speech on race" at the very end, of course, where most wouldn't see itl. This is shameless campaigning via phony polls!

[AgathaX]

The problem with polling in CA was early voting. Polls are snapshots and its hard to photograph a moving target.

Also, over-sampling is not the same as over-representing. The statisticians figure out how many African-American voters they need out of 600 or whatever the survey size is, then they poll more than that number. They average their responses to make sure they're getting the clearest picture possible, then weight them properly in the final 600. So, more people surveyed but each counts for less.

[Viper]

The reality inspite of what Clinton says, its not who gets the most democrat votes who will win nationally. Its the person who gets thhe most Independent votes ( now the majority of the voters) who will win in November. And Obama gets more than twice as many independent votes when the primaries are open to Independents.


Regards

[BlazingChalice]

I still see an Obama/Clinton ticket. Neither candidate would be so stupid to do otherwise.

[Dustee]

Noooooooooo!!!!

[Indyfromny]

Christ help us! Dont say its so....

[ChiGuy]

Hillary's ego would NEVER allow her to play second banana to anyone, least of all Obama.

And after the outright lies she has told about him, I'm not so sure he'd ask.

[accountability]

and viseversa of course.

[WLA]

I doubt he wants to spend his whole term sleeping with one eye open.

[Truthortradition]

You Obama supporters are abviously upset that Hillary won't act like a good girl and bow down. Get over it boys. It's called evolution and there is nothing you can do to stop it.
You don't own us anymore.
You can't stop us.
We are the majority.
You are the minority.
And as women, we are sick and tired of being second class citizens. We do want equal pay. We do want rape punished in the country.
Women earn 25 percent less than a man on average in the same job in all professions in America.
America has the highest incident of rape than any other country in the world. No wonder you all think Hillary should submit to your will. Don't hold your stinking breath.

[MikeMidCity]

Does mental illness run in the family?

[Indyfromny]

Shes been traumatized. Give her a break.

[Dustee]

As a woman myself, I don't have a problem with having a woman president. But Hillary is not the one.

[WaveFunction]

I'm not upset that HIllary won't bow down yet. It's good for the party for everyone to feel like they've had a say and to have more and more people registering to be Democrats so that they can vote for someone they believe in.

But the fact is Hillary's not going to win this nomination.

As for "owning" you, I don't remember a time when we (men) literally did "own" you - but I do know of a time when white men did own black men and women. So as far as the pissing contest between women and black people about who has been more victimized - I'd say black women win, hands down!

[LeonardB]

As a black man I can only say you damn right

[Aleka]

OMG speak for yourself. As a woman, I am completely ashamed of Hillary. Shes set women back decades by crying that the boys are picking on her and playing the gender card whenever she is criticized.

REAL women take responsibilities for their errors and show a bit of grace - not fulfill every male stereotype by clawing and scratching, lying and cheating. REAL women EARN their place, they are not "granted" it.

Disgusted.

[AliHajiSheik]

A real woman would take responsbility for lying about sniper fire, or, say, lying about rape statistics.

Try South Africa for the win next time Truthortradition.
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_1008.html
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_rap_percap-crime-rapes-per-capita

[SLone08]

Wow... try breathing, it might help. Enough with the bullshit feminism.I know plenty of strong, smart woman who see right through Hillary.

Hillary didn't get to where she is on her own merits- she did it by riding Bill's coat-tails. That's not admirable, it's just opportunistic.

[accountability]

actually I would submit that Bill got where he is because of Hillary Clinton not the other way around and if the timing had been different and it had been possible for a woman to run and to win the Presidency in 1992 Hillary Clinton would have been President and Bill would be running today.

Sorry, not being disagreeable, just realistic. She is smart, probably smarter than he is in many ways... he says as much... and she is as hard a working person as anyone I have ever seen.

To denigrate someone with unjustifiable and obviously erroneous accusations just for the sake of doing so is ignorant and noti n keeping with Obama's platform. Please stop.

[labqi]

There is a big fallacy in Hillary's primary wins - there have been republican voters tactically infiltrating into the count. The reason Obama has consistently won at the caucuses is that these same republican moles darent physically appear at them! Whatever she is smoking and inhaling clearly makes her unable to see the truth. Or perhaps the devil is a lot more hidden than we thought.

[IAM4CLINTON]

Common on- Hillary won my state CA by 421,522 votes and FL by 294,772 votes, OH by 229,873 votes and MI by 328,309 votes- those are HUGE margins in big states that reflect the general election population. These were not won by Republicans crossing over.
If you Obama fans want to nominate yet another fringe left candidate and lose an election- that is your choice. John Kerry and Ted Kennedy (both lost seeking the presidency) who both endorsed Obama and continue to be his surrogates - and Hilary won MA big time.
The Clinton brand will win the general election and that is why this passionate Dem supports her

[CaptainSunshine]

That's hogwash . . . she's unelectable . . . 49% unfavorability rating . . . That's why this passionate Dem supports Obama.

[FINTA]

I'm a CA native, did not vote for her... was very DISAPPOINTED when she won this beautiful state! She is trash.. she is no role model and makes me utterly ill when I see her face.

Just bc she won these states in a primary does not mean Obama won't win them in the general! If you think that, you need to stop smoking whatever her and Bill are handing their supporters!!!

The woman has a 50% hate margin against her... people just really don't like her... sorry to say it, but as a DEM, I am one of them!!!

[Davwbaird]

That was then in the very early days and n0t all were on the ballot, get with reality, if those elections were held today, and they won't be, it would be a different story. So get a life.

[WilliamBentley2]

Why did you include Michigan? I halfway understand Florida, but MICHIGAN? You didn't need that to make your argument. Instead, you look like you're reaching.

[rrafiringa]

Do you realistically think the republicans have more fodder on Obama? Just think:
All they have against Obama is claiming that he lacks experience, the Wright controversy and the Rezko affair. There's nothing here that Clinton hasn't already used against him and so far she failed according to the numbers. According to the same numbers, his odds against McCain haven't changed much, neither have Clintons.
What's changed however is that Republicans think that he'll be harder to beat than Clinton.
Hillary comes with a lot of baggage, dating from Bill's presidency, and there's already a claim circulating about her being kicked out of the Watergate affair for cheating the rules. The Republicans will blow up her credibility easy, she's doing most of it herself. Obama can move himself away from Wright's statements, she can't move away from her own on Bosnia.
McCain doesn't know what he's talking about and most sensible and patriotic Americans would know better than vote for him, unless they want the US turn into a 3rd world country. Mac's no president material. He doesn't know a thing about the economy, his foreign policy experience is limited to 5 years as a POW in a Viet Nam prison, he thinks Putin is president of Germany, doesn't know Shiite from Shia, and thinks singing "bomb Iran" in the international scene is proof of his good sense of humor. If Obama wins the primaries and you don't vote for him over shallow reasons, that's the other alternative.

[Aleka]

no, it is just that she is shameless. She is perfectly willing to take the repub vote and taint the election, so long as she wins.

[rrafiringa]

I won't give that much credit the the zealot Republicans' cunning. They are brutes at best.