Obama Gets Pennsylvania Boost From Expectations, Polls

Chris Cillizza writes for the Washington Post:

With 19 days left before Pennsylvania Democrats (finally) go to the polls to pick between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, conventional wisdom says the contest is Clinton's to lose. BUT, "How big will she win?" and "What will it mean?" are questions of huge importance.

The Fix has been pondering those very questions and, through conversations with both neutral and aligned politicos, we've come to a conclusion: Clinton's margin of victory in Pennsylvania matters -- and it matters a lot. There are both symbolic and practical concerns tied to the percentage of her vote -- concerns that help explain why 59 percent would be a titanic victory and 52 percent could be labeled a loss.

Read his full piece here. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling has released a new poll showing Obama ahead in Pennsylvania.

Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.

Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race. ...

He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton's 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.

Three other recent polls show Obama gaining ground but Clinton maintaining her lead by anywhere from 5 to 12 points.

Comments

[bdd]

Hillay, for the sake of the Democratic Party, PLEASE BOW OUT NOW.

[Indyfromny]

Wrong. Hillary should stay in the race until the primaries are over.
Then bow out.

[WLA]

That's a great idea if you like saying "President McBomb." Thanks for your input.

[rojo7449]

Can't you think of anything new? How about posting a strong reason why you support Obama. I'd actually listen to the Obama campaign if just one person would post a solid dissertation on what makes just one of his policies so good for the country. But, if any of you think you are actually impacting the race positively and encouraging a Clinton supporter to join your team, you are just as you appear to be in these screaming posts.

[dajay]

I have given up a long time ago trying to find a rational post here from an Obama supporter. But these guys don't think they need Hillary's supporters. THey think they got not only the nomination in the bag, but also the general election.

What confidence, what arrogance. What denial.

[SLone08]

Lot's of people, including myself, have written legnthy posts detailing why we support Obama. You just choose to ignore them, unfortunately.

[MidwestMomma]

I really like his healthcare plan because part of his plan for keeping cost down is a healthly lifestyle incentives through wellness programs. You know like "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" It is not universal healthcare but a step towards it if we so chose in the future.

Do you want more?

[keir]

I love his early education plan...so that all our children will be ready and able to get a good education. That he wants art and music and history and scinhjce taught. That teachers will not get merit for teaching to the test, but for teaching children what it takes to be able to reason and learn. For kids that do not want to go on for college that they will also have trade schools where they can apprentice and make a living doing what they are talented to do.

Give teachers a better pay and help them keep up with their education, so that we have teachers who can teach, kids who can succeed.

This is good...

[IAM4CLINTON]

Why- has Obama got the 2025 delegates that he needs for the nomination ?

[EvoMan]

I don't believe this latest poll showing Senator Obama ahead is accurate. Even well crafted statistical sampling give a spurious result from time to time.

However, I do think the gap is closing. If Senator Clinton wins, it wil be by a narrow margin. And there is a chance she'll lose and I'm starting to think (a feeling, really) that this is more and more likely every day. Folks in Pennsylvania may be realizing that it's time to end this thing and if the supers don't, they will. It gives them a lot of power, actually. If Clinton loses PA, it will be very entertaining to watch how her campaign spins it. Will they add PA to the list of states that don't matter and delusionally forge ahead? Or, will reality at long last sink in, resulting in a long overdue withdrawal?

[Carolanne]

Democrats unite!!!!! Isn't our goal to take over the White House? To say you wouldn't vote for Obama if he wins or Hillary if she wins and vote for McCain is absolute insanity. Grow up and support the Democratic party no matter who gets the nomination. I am a Hillary supporter but it certainly won't stop me from voting for Obama in November. Remember people....­.....the White House!!!!!

[AdLib]

No true Dem will vote for McCain, these polls saying Dems won't vote if the other candidate wins merely seem to reflect the powerful emotions this race has whipped up. By the time the Dem candidate selects a VP and speaks at the convention, I'm confident we will all be energized to beat McCain and win back the WH.

Except for maybe a few jerks who may put "getting even" first and what's best for their own lives and the country last. Fools like that belong in the GOP party of hatred anyway.

[dajay]

I'm a true Dem and I won't vote for McCain nor Obama. ANd nothing will change my mind.

[WLA]

This is 100% true, AdLib. Candidate affiliation over country demonstrates an inability to control your emotions.

If your football team loses do you kill yourself, or what? Jebus.

[tea in the harbor]

I'm not a Democrat, like many Obama supporters I think most Democrats are every bit as corrupt and sleazy as the Republicans. (Nintey grand in the freezer?) Plato once said there was "No place in politics for an honest man," I generally agree. But every once in a while somebody special comes along. That is why I support Barack! I won't be voting for Johnny McWar, but Hillary is everything I detest in a candidate, I'll vote Nader if she gets the nod.

[Indyfromny]

I support Obama, and I think your logic is corrupt.

[MidwestMomma]

I am a Democrat and feel the exact same way except of course I will vote a straight democratic ticket for the first time because I think the Republicans need a dress down for being so out of control. Yes I will vote for whomever the Democrats run even if my heart isn't into it because my brain knows we can't tolerate 4 more years of Bush policies and war.

[IAM4CLINTON]

I will follow ONLY if Barack and Michelle Obama exhibit some humility in celebrating their party Presidents and their nation

[BeeClone]

Humility? Your kidding right?

[tiredofhillary]

Hilary has lost her chance to do something heroic. She can't win regardless of what she does. Talking tough does not change the fact that Sen. Obama is leading in every category. She and Bill need to pack up and call it a day.

She has screwed this thing up so bad for the party. In Texas, her people challenged hundreds of delegates over the weekend for sh@#$ like, "they don't look right". But despite the BS he still won the majority. This woman makes it very hard to be civil. And her supporters should be a shamed.

[AdLib]

The MSM drumbeat of "Don't count her out" aside, here are the hard numbers:

PA has 158 Delegates. NC and OR, Obama favored states have a combined 167 delegates. For argument's sake, give Hillary a double digit lead in PA matching Obama's in these two, a virtual draw. Guam has 4 which, barring a massive landslide victory will likely be split evenly. Obama is still at least 170 delegates ahead.

The other 6 states (well, 5 + PR) have 237 delegates. To beat Obama in pledged delegates by 1, Hillary would need to win ALL these remaining states (including Obama favored MT and SD) by the outrageous margin of 87%-13%, a 74% spread!

The MSM almost never mention the hard numbers because their ratings windfall from the "neck and neck" race would be endangered. The facts are clear, Hillary can't catch him and won't.

[MrDeadeye2U]

I was a little dubious as to the veracity of this story so I did a little research. The original account was published in 1995 and so is not something that has been produced for the current election cycle.

I still am not satisfied as to the substance of the story but as with any allegation it must be investigated and the truth established. It appears that he may have an axe to grind but that does not make it untrue. I just don’t know.

A simple Google search yielded the following.

http://www.aim.org/guest-column/msnbcs-chris-matthews-still-abusing-his-guests/

http://www.namebase.org/sources/eA.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/style/longterm/books/reviews/matthewdallek.htm

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/925684/posts

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1571/is_47_14/ai_53461403

[AdLib]

Repug S-P-A-M-M-M! Flagged!

[MrDeadeye2U]

This is not SPAM, I would like some answers. I happened to come accross this and have no idea what the merits are.

Certain facts are established.

1. He is who he says - Washington Post.

2. Book was published in 1995 and has nothing to do with this election - Lib Congress

3. Interviewed by Chris Matthews (Hardball) along with John Dean (Nixon White House Counsel) Accuracy in Media.

So this is not some kook Taxi Cab Driver making accusations.

Just the Facts.

[accountability]

Why is he or she flagged?

[MrDeadeye2U]

I saw this, it blew me away, and I just want to have a conversation about it.

There is no doubt that this guy is who he says, his motives for saying these things are of course subject to question but he has been saying them for 13 years. I have followed politics and have not heard this before - if true, this is further diminishing her credibility and hence very relevant.

[rojo7449]

You are copying and pasting this into every article comment section. Read the TOS.

[mounthoodliberal]

thanks mr. lazy spam dude...

[WLA]

You linked an article from freeper on this site? HAAHAHAH!

[MrDeadeye2U]

Watergate-Era Judiciary Chief of Staff: Hillary Clinton Fired For Lies, Unethical Behavior

. . . The now-retired general counsel and chief of staff of the House Judiciary Committee, who supervised Hillary when she worked on the Watergate investigation, says Hillary’s history of lies and unethical behavior goes back farther – and goes much deeper – than anyone realizes.

Jerry Zeifman, a lifelong Democrat, supervised the work of 27-year-old Hillary Rodham on the committee. . . . Zeifman fired Hillary from the committee staff and refused to give her a letter of recommendation – one of only three people who earned that dubious distinction in Zeifman’s 17-year career.

Why?

“Because she was a liar,” Zeifman said in an interview last week. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidenti­ality.”

http://www.northstarwriters.com/dc163.htm

[accountability]

still?

Smear and spam.
Flagged.

[rojo7449]

You are copying and pasting this into every article comment section. Read the TOS.

[MrDeadeye2U]

I am looking for some intelligent dialogue on this matter. I found this very interesting (I don't quite know how to describe it). If it were any other candidate it would be all over the news cycle like a third grade essay. I have had no evidence me that it is patently false. Get over the TOS since this post is more well considered than many of the "Your candidate eats boogers" rants.

BTW it's "Cut & Paste".

[jcharliemiller]

Obama supporters need to start the war against McCain...

[keir]

Obama has been hitting McCain, in fact he says little or nothing about Hillary.

Iraq-
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/03/31/politics/fromtheroad/entry3983148.shtml

Economy-
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obama_engages_McCain_Economics_is_not_his_strong_suit.html

I listen to Hillary's speaches when I can...and I have caught her making untruths. She speaks about Obama, he is ignoring her and fucusing on McCain.

[Indyfromny]

The only thing that is going to force Hillary to quit this race is an overwelming loss in PA and a downward slide in the remaining states.
Otherwise she will run this race through the primary and bring the Party to its knees.
Get ready for POTUS McCain.
The democratic party will fall on its face yet again unless there are some serious voters on this blog who are ready to get involved in PA . Join the rest of us and start calling PA to get out the vote for Obama. Go to his website, get involved. Lets win in Nov.

[LawProf]

I used to do polling and run political campaigns for a living. It is an art as well as a science. But you can get a feel for whether the numbers are real by looking at things like money raised and jokes on late night shows. A candidate is almost always fatally struck when she becomes a national laughingstock (Bosnia snipers). And look closely at the audiences in every photo of the candidates. I told a top Clinton official before Iowa that there was something wrong, when women were enthusiastic while men sat with their arms crossed. In Pennsylvania, it's worse: Hillary has almost no minorities, even including elected officials and their staffs, and very few men.
The amazing thing to me is that it took the Clintons until today (when they switched to targeting McCain) to realize that their negative campaigns with obvious false attacks on Obama were causing her ratings to plummet.

[qdog112]

Evidently preservation of dignity has no place in the Clinton campaign. Very astute observation about the folks in her background. Combine that with the comparative size and the fact that many are "stage plants" and she is dead woman walking.

[mounthoodliberal]

very astute observatio­ns....i have noticed that her crowds tend to be older women. the younger folks there probably went along since they had to drive grandma to see hillary.

[jcharliemiller]

We (Obama supporters) need to stop tearing down Hillary people. We should just say, "Woe to the vanquished", and move on to fighting the Republicans. What's the point in continued fighting. We can roll our eyes and sit pretty until he gets it in mid-june. We need to get smart and organized, and start hitting the Republican guys who are running around sniping. Let's launch the attack on the Republicans and stop the third term of Dubya.

[AdLib]

Appreciate both your and krifos' sentiments but it would be like taking your eye off your queen in chess and just focusing on advancing your king.

Hillary remains a threat to both Obama and the Dem party, her "kitchen sink" attacks have driven down BOTH of their numbers nationally and her continued claim to take this to a convention battle, if it was to come to pass, very well could critically damage Dem chances for regaining the WH AND more seats in Congress.

She is Obama's opponent, she is in the midst of a scorched Earth campaign against him (and the DNC) and should not be taken for granted.

Peace and unity will occur...af­ter the "war" is over.

[jcharliemiller]

I understand your feeling AdLib. Go to CNN.COM and do the math. We've got it. Let's stop McCain and the free ride the media has been giving him. In the last month he's made more mistakes them both Hillary and Obama - and yet he's smiling on TV everday with a good story behind him. Let's Stop McCain Now.

[23000Days]

Given the strength of the Dem party and the disarray in the Repub party, McCain would need a miracle to win over Obama. But you're right, we need to "join the battle" and bury the Repub beast.
It pains me to see Hillary in this shape, I used to respect her.

[accountability]

Really? I find myself respecting her more and more the longer the campaign continues. Being an avid Obama supporter when this started I viewd Clinton with some animosity and suspician though certainly not hatred. As time has gone on I found the ugliness of the Obama supporters, the tactics of Obama surrogates and the blatant media attempts at taking her down becoming more and more uncomfortable. The fact that most Obama supporters didn't have the intellectual honesty to admit that the media was favoring Obama (proven in several non partisan watchdog groups) felt kind of creepy to me. As the attacks on Clinton became more venomous, I found myself really becoming disheartened by what I felt could have been an amazing and historic election that frankly I had worked for for decades as did many of those I know. We had our own preferences but we respect each other and respect and appreciate both candidates. We were just thrilled to have this happen in our lifetimes.
However none of us feel that way now. Whichever candidate we support just isn't joyful anymore. We don't blame each other, we don't blame the candidates, we blame the media and frankly, the people on the progressive blogs that have colluded with the MSM. Actually they have led the MSM who seem to be reading what is going on on the blogs and then reporting it as fact and doing the normal distortions and overblown crap.

[Indyfromny]

What makes you think Hillary will stop in mid-june?
The republicans will have a free ride until Obama or Hillary are chosen for the nomination.

[krifos]

Now that this is virtually over I, and any other Obama supporters who would like to join me, would like to extend the olive branch to Hillary, Bill and of course Chelsea to hop on for the ride of their life. All will be forgiven and no hard feelings. Now let,s get McCain!! How "bout it?

[CBS]

I would hold the olive branch....­.don't count The Clintons out. I am sure their operatives are going to throw mud as close to the PA primary as possible. You are being sweet but extremely naive.

[afgail]

Sorry but that ship has sailed. The battered wife syndrome does not pertain here. Your contrition is too little and too late and not accepted by this Hillary supporter. The Obama campaign has been the most viciously hate driven I have ever seen since I first volunteered in the Kennedy campaign in 1960. I strongly feel that any candidate that so deliberately fomented such hatred would be very bad for America. If Hillary is not the nominee I'm voting for McCain. Don't look for forgiveness here. The divorce is irreconcilable.

[jcharliemiller]

Hillary is a fine American and We (Obama supporters) need to remember that any democrat right now is better then the great depression John McCain would start as President. His philosphy of do nothing isn't going to work.

[DoninJoisey]

Typical. You do know the Clinton campaign brought on the hatred, right? Obama has kept it "professional", but Bill and Hill and surrogates are deep in the gutter politics.

I can see why you'd vote for McCain, Hillary likes him, too, or so she says - hard to get at what she really believes.

[Bretto]

I'm an Australia living in Singapore watching this circus. It's baffling how the supposedly "greatest" country in the world can regularly find a complete moron to be in charge. And it's truly horrific when you consider the destruction and death wrought by war mongers such as Bush. For "Afgail" to say they'll vote for McCain because if their Hillary is not the nominee is about as mindless and petulant as you can get. Now I understand how the "greatest" country in the world can regularly find a complete moron to be in charge....

[richardsgirl]

Neither Senator Obama nor Senator Clinton have "fomented" or placed a stamp of approval on the vitriol that has transpired on this or any other blogsite, and the viciousness has come from both sides. We tend to see it as one-sided based on the candidate we are supporting; but in fairness, Senator Clinton's supporters have been just as vicious as Senator Obama's supporters. It's easy to be that way when we're anonymous to each other, but we're anonymous to Senator Obama and Senator Clinton as well. I think it's less than responsible, as mature voters and citizens, to either determine one's vote or to decide not to vote by comments made on a blogsite. I also believe that those who say that they are making a decision based on comments by anonymous bloggers are really just using that to justify a decision they already made. You are voting for the Republican candidate because you do not want to support Senator Obama or the Democratic Party if Senator Obama is the nominee. Whatever your reasons may be for doing this, I doubt if it's because of some anonymous bloggers who offended you on Huffington Post, especially when you had the choice not to participate on this particular blogsite! Perhaps I'm wrong, but for the sake and future of our country, I sincerely hope that I'm not.

[dajay]

I agree. I cannot vote for OBama for MANY reasons, mainly that the man is not qualified, is arrogant, and used race, along with his surrogates and the media, to trash Hillary and Bill Clinton.

That alone is enougt reason for me not to vote for him. THE CRAZINESS AND VILENESS OF HIS OBAMA SUPPORTERS IS JUST THE ICING ON THE CAKE!!!!!!!!!!

We had 8 years of an administration that catered to his lunatic base supporters, and we don't need another presidency like that.

I won't be responsible for putting a guy like that in office.

[afgail]

What happend to my reply to the offer of an olive branch? Here it is again. Your contrition is too little and too late. The vicious hate driven Obama campaign dumped on Hillary is not forgiven. This Hillary supporter is voting for McCain if Hillary is not the nominee. You poisoned the well. This from a progressive who first volunteered for JFK in 1960.

[IAM4CLINTON]

Amen- same here- when you guys scream insults and disrespect Bill Clinton- with Senator Obama's smirk, dismissive and arrogant attitude toward the only successful 2 term Dem President and who brought the party toward the winnable vital center- you lost me. Barack and Michelle will need to really attempt to inject some humility, patriotism and love for the Dem party before I can vote for him. As of now, I will join almost 3.5 Million voters in voting for McCain if Hillary is not the nominee.

[dajay]

I just hope that all the Hillary supporters remember the vicious hate of the OBama supporters and refuse to cast the vote for this man, who is not qualified to be President, and was given a free pass from the media and the Dem party.

[c1ee]

I am sorry you feel that way. I hope you come around.

[jsinclair]

I'm pessimistic about polls (maybe trying to artificially raise expectations?) But, if true, it would be great news.

I really hope PA will settle everything on April 22. If Obama even comes very, very close, that would be great. We really need to start focusing on Bush and McCain, not each other.

[DuckofDeath]

I think Hillary could take this nomination away from the presumed candidate, just not the Democratic candidate. I think Hillary would have a decent shot at taking the nom away from McCain, she and BIll have been busy locking up the support of GOP power brokers like Richard Mellon Scaife, Rupert Murdoch and Rush Limbaugh and with them on board, she could easily sway the GOP faithful, past differences notwithstanding.

[purplestategal]

As much as I would love to believe this, are we sure that this isn't an April Fools Day 'poll result'?