Obama Gets Pennsylvania Boost From Expectations, Polls

Chris Cillizza writes for the Washington Post:

With 19 days left before Pennsylvania Democrats (finally) go to the polls to pick between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, conventional wisdom says the contest is Clinton's to lose. BUT, "How big will she win?" and "What will it mean?" are questions of huge importance.

The Fix has been pondering those very questions and, through conversations with both neutral and aligned politicos, we've come to a conclusion: Clinton's margin of victory in Pennsylvania matters -- and it matters a lot. There are both symbolic and practical concerns tied to the percentage of her vote -- concerns that help explain why 59 percent would be a titanic victory and 52 percent could be labeled a loss.

Read his full piece here. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling has released a new poll showing Obama ahead in Pennsylvania.

Barack Obama has taken the lead in Pennsylvania, a remarkable turnaround after trailing Hillary Clinton by 26 points in a PPP poll in the state just two and a half weeks ago.

Obama's steep rise could be a reflection of a growing sense among Democratic voters that a continued divisive nomination process will hurt the party's chances of defeating John McCain this fall. An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be virtually certain to force Clinton out of the race. ...

He leads across all age groups except senior citizens and balances Clinton's 10 point lead with women with his own 15 point lead with men.

Three other recent polls show Obama gaining ground but Clinton maintaining her lead by anywhere from 5 to 12 points.

Comments

[FastMovingCloud]

Wow, I made the mistake of clicking on the link to the poll. Some commenter there named "Anonymous" is virulently for Clinton (for now, he says). Obviously a disgruntled Republican.

[AdLib]

Hillary won Ohio by 10% and netted 9 delegates. PA is smaller so even a win by 15% (and that is looking less likely with each passing day) would not net much more than 10 delegates.

Obama is ahead by 171 pledged delegates. So what if she wins PA by even 15%? He'll still be ahead by 161 delegates...with NC coming up and his steady double digit lead there will likely net him around 10...back to a 171 delegate lead and no "big states" remaining for Hillary to again push the goalposts to.

It is so over.

[LeftLeaner]

Let's SO wait.

[AdLib]

For what? Hillary to campaign for the repeal of Mathematics?

[RadCenter]

Slight correction: PA has about a million more people than OH.

And as one of them I plan to work my butt off for Obama!

[AdLib]

My bad, flipped the numbers, you are correct! OH had 141 pledged dels and PA has 158.

So, being generous, give Hillary 15 Dels in PA if she wins by 15% (looks like single digits will be more likely though). That would leave Obama ahead by 156...until NC where he's ahead by double digits and would gain back most of his lead.

[c1ee]

Let her run. Seems her supporters are very passionate about this. The best way to end this is through a mandate by votes. If Obama wins Pennsylvania, then Clinton will have run out of excuses. If she wins, let the people of NC decide. Slowly but surely, those in Clinton's ranks calling for the continuation of the voting process will dwindle. They're swimming against the tide, and as long as Obama stays above the fray, i don't think he'll be harmed for the general election at all.

[AnninCA]

Was this a Zolgby poll? :)

[LeftLeaner]

Good Point

[perfectlycromulent]

The more people get to know him the more they like him. I think he can get within 5% come vote time.

[ClevelandTom]

According th the average of the four polls done in PA (PPP, Gallup, Quinnipac, and Rasmussen), Obama is already at -6% and the trend is in his favor.

[accountability]

Unfortunately the more people are exposed tohis supporters (on HuffPo) the less comfortable they feel with him.

Sad, because he may very well be a great President but unfortunately the adage about show me who your friends are I'll show you who you are is something people still find relevant. The more time they spend here the less comfortable and committed they are to voting for him.

Thanks.

[purplestategal]

I appreciate you saying this. The onus is now on Obama supporters to create a welcoming environment for Clinton supporters to support him. We'll need every single Dem. vote in the general election.

[IAM4CLINTON]

I judge a man by the company he keeps- sorry, Obama's cosy company with Jeramie Wright is enough for me to conclude on Obama's lack of good judgement

[jsinclair]

We're admirers, not personal friends (which is who your saying is about). I don't think anyone is so stupid to base their vote on liking or disliking someone's supporter on a message board.

Btw, I think the idea that "you can tell a lot about someone by their friends" works well in telling much about the difference between Obama and Clinton.

[AnninCA]

His surge is predictable. We've been here before. Deja Vu........

[afgail]

Wishful thinking. To know Obama well is to love an empty suit. He is everything he says he is not. His expereince is thin and his accomplishments are more figments of his imagineation than real.

[c1ee]

Uhm...

Has been an elected public servant longer than Hillary Clinton

Graduated Harvard Law magna cum laude, Professor of Constitutional law at University of Chicago

Has a more impressive senate record than Hillary Clinton's
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/20/201332/807/36/458633

Has released his earmarks and tax returns. Hillary has yet to return hers.

I could go on, but i'm probably wasting my time trying to sway you.

Cheers

[Toerag]

Remember two weeks ago when the polls had Clinton up by anywhere from 16% to upwards of 26%?

I'd say Obama is gaining some serious ground in PA. Whether he wins or not, he's definately cutting into the number of delegates she was expected to take.

The curious thing is, the pollsters that have Obama ahead by 2% in their latest poll is the same pollsters that had him down by 26% on 3/16. Making up 28% in two and a half weeks is huge.

[AnninCA]

He's dumped tons of money in ads there. And his negative campaign has worked.

[AdLib]

As opposed to Hillary's "Sunshine and Lollypops" campaign? WHich somehow featured trying to drag up Rev. Wright over and over again.

Face it, you'll have to be looking for a new paid gig very soon.

[RealistDem]

Ann as someone who lives in Pa and sees his ads none of them are negative, he simply speaks into the camera and states what hell do for the country. He never mentions nor attacks Senator Clinton.

[LAcarlito]

Ann: I really like your passion for Hillary. But Obama has really stuck to a positive campaign in PA and it seems to be paying off. In fact, he constantly refers to Hillary by name, while Bill & Hillary usually refer to him as "the opponent" in their stump speeches.

It is as though they are back to being hack lawyers. Why don't they just call him the defendant?

[2351]

Can you point out those negative campaign ads? I'm sorry, but I just don't see it.

[butchie65]

Annie is a regular Hillary writer, she never has anything good to say about anything. She tries to make it look like she was an Obama fan at the beginning and then changed her mind. Just pass her by when reading these blogs. People are use to her postings and know she is full of it.

[MarkieBee001]

and a little hard to believe...and I'm a huge Obama supporter. I remember Obama was supposed to be up 13 points out here in California and lost by nine. Now, he was down by as much as 30 around Thanksgiving, so that was a nice close. But erasing a 24 point deficit in just two weeks is a little hard to believe even with Hillary getting caught lying again.

[JonStewart4President]

That poll showing that Obama ahead is stupid. He's behind by about 9 points, which is a big gain for him and he'll be lucky to get away with losing by 10 or under in PA. No WAY does he win PA outright. A win for Obama will be losing by less than the 17-19% he was trailing at not to long ago.

[julescator]

Why can't Obama win in PA. Is it as racists as the Clintons hope it is? Just asking!

[AnninCA]

I crack up at these posts. People were so outraged that Hillary pointed out his caucus wins.

But you guys.........oh boy......every state that doesn't support Obama is racist.

[DoninJoisey]

It's a closed primary. You have to be registered as a democrat to vote in the democratic primary. Independents have to say they're democrat to participate. It varies from state to state. Hilly does better with party hacks, who subscribe to "it's her turn".

I wish Obama would win, but I don't think so. I'd settle for close.

[dajay]

So any state that Obama has not won, must be racist? What stupidity. Yeah, New York and California are real racists states.

Why don't you people make some sense once in awhile.

[SLone08]

Agreed. Actually, I think he needs to get within 10% for it to be a convincing "win" for him.

[jsinclair]

9% down makes a lot more sense and is an impressive gain.

I wonder if this is a Clinton-inspired "expectations" game, so they can call "big win!" if they keep a 5-10% lead? (And, why not? It worked in NH).

[BIG JOHN]

BUT YOU MUST SAY THAT THIS IS A REMARKABLE TURNAROUND IN PENN. SHE WAS UP BY 25 POINTS IN THE POLLS TWO WEEKS AGO. IF OBAMA WINS PENN. WE ALL KNOW IT'S GOOD NIGHT HILLARY. IF HE COMES WITHIN 5 POINTS THE FAT LADY WILL BE WARMING UP. SHE WILL HAVE A LOT OF THINKING TO DO GOING INTO S.C.

[cowman]

I'd agree with you if you weren't so loud.

[Yasir]

Why waste chaste when you can baste the paste to suite the taste of all haste.

[FastMovingCloud]

'Scuse me?

[IslandGyal]

I personally don't trust this poll. I think it's a Rush Limbaugh type set-up, so that Obama's supporters let up, then wham, the Hillary is the comeback kid and we have to endure that media spectacle for the next to follow, ahhhhhhhhhhhhh.!

[Aleka]

Yea I agree this poll is terrible news for Obama supporters. It is ludicrous to realistically expect him to win PA, yet thanks to this, this is exactly how Clinton will spin it. So now, he will have to actually defeat her to "win", instead of just come within 5%.

I smell a rat also.

[2351]

Politics is really ugly, isn't it?

[RRH]

I was just watching the new polls in PA and Hillary Clinton is ahead by 9 points. PA is a Clinton state with working-class citizens. To say Obama is ahead, is not true. Perhaps it was a mistake on the writers part. Go back and adjust it to reality! I am so sick of anti-Hillary people. What did this woman ever do to have so many dumping on her?

[Dyogenes]

Different polls, different results . Comparisons @ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Just in --Obama wins new Montana SuperDelegate
Former U.S. Sen. John Melcher says he is going to cast his key Democratic Party superdelegate vote for Barack Obama. Melcher is 1 of 8 Montana superdelegates who can vote for whoever they please at the party's national convention this summer. One other Montana superdelegate, Ed Tinsley, earlier announced support for Obama. All the others - including Gov. Brian Schweitzer and U.S. Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester - have said they will wait until after the state's June 3 primary to decide.

[Smartey]

Special note to poster "accountability": Eat Me.

[GotRights]

So now reporting the results of a poll counts as "dumping on her?"

And I thought I'd heard it all...

[Aleka]

Haven't you learned yet? Reporting facts that are negative about this woman is "attacking her".

[Smartey]

Well, she lied about
1) Who she was named for
2) About being rejected for the Space Program
3) About being rejected by the Marines
4) Her importance to the Watergate investigation
5) What happened to Vince Foster
6) Her picks for Bill's Attorney General
7) What happened to the Travel Office
8) What happened to the FBI files
9) What happened to the Rose Law Firm billing records
10) Who she hired to thug-threaten Bill's myriad of girlfriends
11) What happened with Whitewater
12) The Vast Right Wing Conspiracy
13) What happened with her brother and Bill's last-minute pardons (a bunch of these to her benefit)
14) What happened, or DIDN'T, to Chelsea on 9-11
15) What happened, or DIDN'T, when landing in Bosnia

I could go on, but my hand is getting tired of typing the lies. Just wait for all this to be gleefully recounted by the Republican Attack Machine.

[julescator]

16) Peace Treaty in Ireland
17) Opened borders in Kosovo
18) Was against NAFTA (big lie)

[accountability]

OMG, you are definitely a neocon troll with this crap.
Vince Foster? You are seriously going to bring up Vince
Foster?

Chelsea and 9/11... Don't you check the media watch dog groups to see if what is alleged by the likes of Dick Morris are actually true?
http://tinyurl.com/3d5cvv

Her importance to the Nixon impeachment? She actually was the one responsible for the resignation of Nixon though I have never heard or read her mentioning it. I found it out on right wing websites when I was researching the candidates... something intelligent, rational, objective citizens do.

What is the point of addressing this kind of hateful lie mongering hate mongering ugliness. None. People like you have no compunction, no ethics, no morals when it comes to hate and destruction, like a rabid dog snapping, snarling, biting, looking for anything to mangle and maim.

What the hell is wrong with you? This is the most repulsive example of someone spewing their psychic vomit so far. Each time I think I have seen a new low and it can't get worse, it does. You just sank to the depths of low. Ironically you are far more an example of hideous lies and machinations than Hillary Clinton ever has been. Congratulations, you have joined the neocon campaign to destroy Hillary Clinton. Politics of personal destructions. I am ashamed that you and I would be in the same party.

[krifos]

I wouldn't be so proud of a state where the "working class" swings overwhelmingly for the white candidate. Remember when African Americans vote for Obama it is out of pride. When whites vote as a block for whites it takes us down a disgusting path.

[AnninCA]

Yes, let's trash those working class Americans.

Drive those unacceptable folks out of the Dem Party!

That'll be cold comfort when you lose in the Fall.

[richardsgirl]

There are working-class citizens all over the United States, not just Pennsylvania. The difference is that in places like Pennsylvania, there are more pockets of "blue-collar" workers: older, traditional white working-class Americans who will never vote for an African American for president, no matter how qualified he/she is. The MSM calls them "blue-collar" or ethnic, or anything but what they are, which is racists. However, this is the constituency that supports Senator Clinton and to whom she has appealed, and a constituency that Senator Obama can never penetrate, not because he is not an exceptional candidate, but solely because he is black. Nonetheless, Senator Obama is increasingly winning the support of progressive Democrats in Pennsylvania and edging closer each day to Senator Clinton's margin of victory, which in effect will dampen whatever victory she achieves. In other words, he doesn't even have to be ahead or win the state of Pennsylvania to maintain his lead! Senator Clinton has brought this "dumping" on herself. Over these past few months, she has shown America who she is, and as many have pointed out, it's not a pretty picture!

[RadCenter]

I don't supposed you have bothered to read or watch or listen to Obama's "A More Perfect Union" speech. I you had, or if you had understood what he was saying, you would know that he would want no part in bashing working-class white people, who are terrified for their very existence—one form of terror that certain Democrats have ignored since roughly, um, January 21, 1993...

[patriotscholar]

Not to worry. About one week or down to three days before the Pennsylvania primary, there will be smears the likes of which you have never seen directed at Obama, to sway voters at the last minute before going to the polls. It worked in Ohio and almost worked in Texas. Some of the stuff may even be invented, but no matter, so long as it gets the votes. Once the votes are cast, it is too late, so even if it comes out later as an untruth or a misspeak, voters cannot change their votes.

Then again, all the networks are watching for that this time around.

[ItsAlessandro]

This is what I'm talking about, Hillary has been hammered for staying in the race, Obama is outspending her 4 to 1, and now there are actually polls showing Obama ahead. Tell me the fix isn't in. I've never seen a more blatant attempt by the media to end a presidential race. Throw in how close the race actually is and it's a real travesty.

I postulated the argument several days back that the media did not budget for a prolonged democratic race and in combination with covering McCain they would prefer a two field race so they can save money.

Just today CBS news reported job cuts. Talk about budget gate. Actually trying to end someone's try at the presidential race because it's getting expensive to cover the race. lol, who is going to report that story.

[Toerag]

The media is trying to end the race?!?! Are you serious? They haven't budgeted for it?!?! CNN and MSNBC, etc are getting the best ratings in their histories because of this race! They have more advertisers willing to spend more and more money for spots - they are making cash hand-over-fist because of this race! They're doing everything they can to convince the public (obviously, you've been listening to them) that this race is closer than it actually is so that it can last longer and longer and their pockets can get deeper and deeper as a result!

[GotRights]

"I postulated the argument several days back that the media did not budget for a prolonged democratic race"

Oh yeah, that's it. They didn't budget for all the higher ratings and extra ad revenue the prolonged democratic race is generating for them. And they just don't know what to do with all those unbudgeted earnings. Therefore they're conspiring to end the primaries "early."

[ClevelandTom]

The media is hoping for nothing if not that the race continues into the summer when TV ratings and ad prices normally go down. It will be money in their pocket.

The organization that did not budget time or money for a prolonged primary season is the Clinton campaign.

[MM5]

Yup...that seems to be the consistent Clinton strategy. I say this time Team Obama gets ready to throw some of their baggage back...at least it would be the truth vs. the usual lies the Clintons sling and there is so much to pick from with the Clintons.

[Toerag]

Obama is better than that. He hasn't needed to go very negative against Clinton yet, and he won't need to in the future. That's not what his campaign and message are about.

[missjabez]

That's exactly what I think will happen. A mysterious scandal that seemingly comes out of nowhere--like that ludicrous brouhaha over Rev. Wright. Hillary's campaign slogan should be "Hell, I'll Do Anything to Get Elected!" Might make a good bumper sticker, too.

[Toerag]

I don't understand why the Wright thing was such a brouhaha - after all, they were "just words".

[ResidentChimp]

It they are going to be the likes of which we have neveer seen, how is it we saw them in Ohio and Texas? Please give us an example or two of these smears and untruths.

[DontvoteforBillary]

ummm...NAFTA....her Bosnia, N. Ireland, SCHIP, FMLA experience (all debunked). This is just right off the top of my head. I'm sure that you are informed enough to do some research. Oh don't forget the "Shame on you, Barack Obama" b.s. You might want to check into Maggie Williams income from predatory lenders while you are at it.

[Toerag]

The photo of Obama in Somali garb. Hillary saying she was opposed to NAFTA from the start (her WH schedules, released after the OH primary, show otherwise). Sniper fire in Bosnia. That's three!

[Binea]

Scary,but I believe you are right.Which is why the point needs to be driven home to voters,just how dishonest The clintons and their surrogates are.people unconnected to Obama's campaign need to keep the bald faced Bosnia Lie center stage,as well as all the other proven lies,and thier low tactics.it would not be a smere since these are proven.Voters will be less likely to fall for the smeres like those in Ohio fell for the Nafta lie.

[accountability]

I believe you people are insane. You are clearly projecting your own treacherous and unscrupulous machinations onto Hillary Clinton.

This is bordering on a hatred that is psychotic. The reactionary verbiage is so out of proportion to the reality of events, statements, actions. This inability to discern what is appropriate, this absence of perspective is frankly disturbing and is becoming frightening to "normal" people no matter who they support... yes, that includes Obama supporters.

I have never seen such irrational hatred spread so malignantly and cause so much ugliness and division in any campaign ever. There is a saying "we become the things we hate" (or "resist") I suggest you all take a very good, deep look at yourself if you have that capacity. What you are becoming is dangerous and ugly and has no place in the Obama campaign, the Democratic Party, America.

proportion

[EinChicago]

I'm pretty much done now. There's not a thing that could convince me to vote for Barak "Wright Stuff" Obama, and it pretty much looks like he has been foisted on us by the loony fringe. At this stage, I think all moderates can do is accept the Mccain win and focus our energies on fixing the flawed Caucus system that allowed a relative handful of Obama supporters to bully their way past legitimate votes.

[julescator]

You sound almost sad that America is DONE with racism. You must think of a better reason NOT to vote for Obama. This is a cop out! Rev, Wright was a red herring at most. A part of the Clinton's Kitchen Sink policy that also DIDN"T work. Since Hillary really can't run on experience she can only win if she tears Obama apart. That's a sad way to win.

[Gadrielle]

Are you guys really serious with this, "That's it. You Obama people are so nasty, I'm gonna vote for McCain?" You all really sound like Stephen Colbert, with your fake sounding high dudgeon. You want to vote Repug, go ahead. But why do you keep reading and posting on a progressive blog?

[Plank]

Bill Clinton's PA wet towels have dried up. Hillary, it's time to bow out gracefully so that Bill can chill out and enjoy a good cigar.

[Plank]

Hillary PAY your bills and release your tax returns.

[GoLeftGoDeep]

exactly ... if that was Obama her campaign would be running ads about it ... she's come from being someone I admired to someone I pitied to someone I can barely stomach because of how low-gutter her campaign has conducted itself ...

[missjabez]

Polls can be misleading. But Hillary might feel inclined to play it safe. Time to come up with another scandal to smear Obama with!

[AnninCA]

She's just getting out of his way and letting him step into it.