North Carolina Primary Could Be Democratic Graveyard

"The end could be near," USA Today reports in an article headlined "Why the Democratic race could end in North Carolina."

Four months and 42 states after the opening Iowa caucuses, the primary in North Carolina on May 6 now looms as a pivotal final showdown between Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Obama starts with a double-digit lead in polls here, a state where 2,400 free tickets to his rally at the War Memorial Auditorium in Greensboro last week were gone within three hours of the announcement he would appear. But Clinton has appeal in the Tar Heel State, too, and is competing hard. The day after Obama's rally, she drew 1,000 supporters to the gym at Terry Sanford High School in Fayetteville for a town hall meeting.

"I really believe May 6 has the potential to be everything," says Joe Trippi, a strategist for the presidential bids of former North Carolina senator John Edwards this year and Howard Dean in 2004. "Every day you see increased pressure on Hillary Clinton about why she's staying in, and if she could win in North Carolina it would shut down that kind of talk and open up the possibility she could get there" to the nomination.

"But if he wins in North Carolina," Trippi says of Obama, "I think you're going to see things close up very quickly. You'll see a lot of superdelegates line up behind him."

The local News & Observer is reporting that the candidates seem to share the same vision, with massive organization ramping up in the state:

In recent days, the campaigns began assembling ground operations that instantaneously dwarfed the efforts of candidates for governor, the U.S. Senate and dozens of other North Carolina offices.

Obama has opened 15 campaign offices in the state, a number expected to grow. The Clinton campaign dedicated its headquarters near the Glenwood South section of Raleigh on Wednesday with about a dozen more offices to come.

Hotline has run the numbers to identify a wild card that is difficult to poll: the net switch of Republicans who might be voting in the Democratic primary:

But there's also a lot of movement within the ranks of registered voters. Between January and March of this year, more than 30,000 currently registered voters changed their party identification. More than 12,000 of those, about 40%, are previously Republican voters who have moved OUT of the party to register either as Democrats or as unaffiliated voters able to participate in either primary on May 6th. Subtract from that the number of Dems and unaffiliated voters who moved into the GOP, and there's still a net LOSS of about 6,700 Republican voters in three months. In contrast, the Democratic party nabbed a net of about 4,000 voters - previously Republican or unaffiliated - who moved into the D column. And the unaffiliated group, which gained almost 50,000 new voters in the last three months, added an additional 2,700 net from the shuffle.

Why am I telling you all this? Unaffiliateds are the big bold wildcard in the Carolina election - they're difficult to poll and even harder to target, and their motivations are all over the map. From Republicans hoping to throw a monkey wrench in the Democratic primary at Rush Limbaugh's urging, to disenchanted partisans seeking a unity candidate, to last-minute undecideds, these are the voters who could surprise us all.

Comments

[skeptical1]

Hillary will rise from the ashes of her defeat to new glory as the VP running mate of John McCain. And, I think that thye would win. Remember, it's not about the country or the Democratic Party, it's about the Clintons.

[antaeus]

Yup, could be. Then in November Ohio will be Obama's Waterloo. Good-bye Hillary, hello McGovern II.

[Harrier]

I agree. Given Clinton wins in PA and IN, she must win in North Carolina if she wants to win the popular vote. If you are a Democrat you are seeing the the race they are having, completely sucking the oxygen out of anything McCain is trying to communicate. Nobody has heard from that guy in a month at least. He is unable to take any shots at all and this would be the ideal opportunity to shape the attacks

[musselmanm]

Texas ended it all. We here in NC will be proud to put the nail in Hillarys' coffin so to speak.
The energy here in Greensboro is very high with people talking everywhere. Supporting Obama with a delight that shows in their eyes. Not just blacks, but many whites also.
She does not need top leave because she no longer matters, just like Huckabee at the end of his campaign.

[c1ee]

Exactly, let her run and watch her empire collapse under her feet.

[BrooklynLager]

That's great news. My family is from Greensboro and I have relatives in NC and they're all for Obama.

[qdog112]

People it's all over but the lullaby. It was over when she stated how honored she was to be on the stage with Barack during that famous debate. The constant drip, drip, drip of super delegates says she just didn't get it. Corzinne, Murtha, President Carter after Richardson is the death blow. Call it saving face or dignity preservation - she should go NOW!

[NicoleAnonymous]

What would happen if someone called Obama a whore or said this was his graveyard?

Everyone would be talking about the "racism" and how offensive it is to black people. But female politicians can be called whores or be told they're "crazy" and mentallly ill and have their clothing criticized and most people don't have a problem with it.

[missjabez]

I don't think anyone approved of calling Hillary Clinton a whore. That was in very bad taste, but this talk of Hillary being a victim of gender discrimination has gotten very old. But if some people enjoy supporting someone who portrays herself as a victim to further her own political interests, more power to 'em.

[NicoleAnonymous]

I don't really support her and didn't have a preference between her and Obama although lately I seem to be supporting Obama a little more than her.

And I don't think Clinton has ever been a "victim" of anything. But that doesn't mean the way people insult her isn't offensive to women - it's not about Clinton. It's about the way people insult her but if you don't understand why then I probably can't explain it to you.

[gmlaster]

But she is a whore. She whored for Bill, who is looking more and more like a trick who can't pay up. That Clinton name was supposed to be her ticket. After Lewinsky, she probably agreed not to take the kid and leave him alone to die of shame all by himself in the White House on the condition that he'd guarantee her a turn as president. Now it's looking like she put off that divorce for nothing.

[Gibbons]

Of course Obama will win it because 99 percent of blacks will vote their race as the majority of white people in this state have been doing since the civil war.

[slow2]

Gib -- Meaning?

[teamsterwife]

No.

[steelbreeze676]

What exactly do you expect to happen for Hillary to win this thing? Mathematically this thing was over a month ago.

[kellygrrrl]

well, the same was said about PA - and looks like that could be changing.
In fact, a year ago it was "over" apparently as Hillary was The Inevitable.
You just never know. Americans are funny creatures, and MANY actually do decide at the last minute.
No candidate can ever take anything for granted. And I think we've all learned how reliable polls are.

[RThM]

North Carolina the primary graveyard? No. That was Texas when the full results were finally tabulated. Now, that doesn't mean that the living dead won't continue to haunt subsequest primaries. If found still wandering about, however, please return them to Texas for a proper burial. Pre-addressed envelopes can be picked up at your nearest Obama campaign office. First-class postage will be paid by the Gang of Twenty.

[LiarLiarIraqsOnFire]

I say creamate it and sprinkle the ashes over Mall-Wart HQ in Arkansas.

[newunderground]

BRAINS...LIVE HUMAN BRAINS..MUST HAVE BRAINS...

[verlaine]

Queen Hillary is dead meat. She knows it, Bill knows it, Chelsea knows it and so do the thugs running her campaign.

[patapsco99]

Obama needs to keep the race issue card going. If he makes this election about reason instead of legislating morality, he will lose. Nothing motivates people to the polls quicker than someone who believes they will be taking a moral stance and changing social laws. Outside of religion in the United States, people have little opportunity to feel morally correct. Face it, the next generation believes that politics are religion and that confusion between social controls and laws hurt our libtery and our ablity to limit power. If everyone agrees with the government, then the government can do anything it wants.

[Binea]

Pata..it's the Government transparency..that is key.With complete government transparency,Which Obama fought for and took an oath to have ,should he become president,Then there is also accountabilty.Once the government is truelly accountable and transparent WE the people will truelly have a voice and a part in this.No more people serving the government and corps interest,but them serving us..or at least something on more equal footing.

[JohnTalbutt]

Actually it is the opposite. Obama is in intelligence, organizing ability and communication skills superior to Hillary or McCain. His opposition to the war and other issues also find him more compatible with the majority of voters. Finally, the strong moral values he has expressed and demonstrated in his issue oriented clean and issue oriented campaign is very appealing. If he were white he would be way ahead of where he is now.

That is why Hillary's supporters keep bringing up race. Oh, you just did that. You sly dog. You had me fooled for a moment.

[patapsco99]

Hey guy,
You better check Obama's vote record, he voted for 20 senate propsals that supported the war.

[KimberlyKay]

Since Senator Obama has not once used the race card (and it probably would not benefit him if he did) I have no idea why you believe this. I support Senator Obama for a myriad of reasons, but first among them is that he is the only candidate who offers us a change in process.

Why is a change in process important? Because the current process yields us nothing but partisan bickering, petty fights and such wonderous results as HMO's, the repeal of Glass-Steagall, wonderous bursting housing bubbles, crumbling schools and soaring health care costs --- not to mention a war in Iraq that makes us less safe that should neither have been authorized nor waged. Senator Obama calls us to participate again in the process in a meaningful way. He offers us televised healthcare hearings which we can watch and make our voices heard. No transformative change has happened in this Country unless we, the People, either start it ourselves, or we fully support our government in seeking it. Senator Obama understands this, while the other candidates do not. This is why I support Senator Obama.

Can Senator Obama help move us past racial divides? It is possible, but one man cannot do much on this issue. This would be a great side-effect, but not a reason to elect a President especially following 7+ years of incompetence, corruption and sadness that my Government cannot seem to do anything right.

[peskyliberal]

Please recount the usage of the race card by Obama.

If you can't, please STFU...thank you.

[ddlrid]

No...you and a host of faux news, limbaugh, repubs and clinton supporters need to keep bringing up 'race issues.' It's the only way you feel like you have a chance. Transparent and pathetic...

[MichaelTenery]

It's my opinion that when she says she is the most transparent candidate this is what she means.

[Paul]

Hillary is a political zombie. Can't win but won't die.

[LBM]

It's ridiculous to say that the only state with upcoming primaries that matters is the one that Obama is leading in. She has a lead in both Pennsylvania and Indiana. Why won't those be Obama's graveyard?

[INDYBIGT]

Um, I think it has to do with the number of delegates won to date, the expected outcome of the races you mentioned, and the fact that our state, North Carolina, is waking up to the fact that we matter in the primary for once and we are sick of Hillary.

[KimberlyKay]

Because to overcome Senator Obama's pledged delegate (representing votes cast) lead, Senator Clinton would need to win all of the remaining contests by 64%. Should she fail to win any contest, this unlikely possibility transforms into a impossibility. Of course, if you believe 3/4 of the superdelegates should ignore the leader in the pledged delegate count, they could do this tomorrow. It would be better if they did this sooner, rather than later, because such a decision will divide the Democratic party for more than 2 months (the time between the August convention and the election) and possibly for more than 2 decades. So, get your arguments ready and do it soon if this is your proposal. I support Senator Obama, but it is critically important to me that the Oval Office be occupied by a Democrat come January 9, 2009 -- how about you?

[getrealalready]

I guess I will issue my statement right here on the corporate underground press:
Now hear this: The Media Should Stop Controlling the Vote of The American People.

[Indyfromny]

Its not the media that needs to stop, its the people who need to wake up.
We should start with better public edu.

[getrealalready]

That kind of revolution is not easy between now and November, Indy-

[getrealalready]

I like the Freedom of the American Press and don't mean to condemn it. It's the newly found extreme sport of trouncing upon "the nuance" that has become intolerable.

[BlueBoomer]

Huffpo should be flagged as abusive...

I'm not a particular fan of Hillary's, but the headline for this thread crosses the line, AND SHOULD BE RESCINDED WITH APOLOGIES.

How come we don't see a headline like: "BARAK OBAMA PRACTICES GUTTER POLITICS IN PA !" ?

Huffingtonpost started out as the Washington Post of blogs, but it's turned into the New York Post instead.

[smzzzz]

You don't see that headline because it' stupid and wrong

[ADVOCATE4ZPG]

Yes, and if HRC so much as sneezes, HuffPo's cadre of hax would seize upon it as evidence that her(?) health care plan is hopeslessly flawed and/or that she's attempting to spread a FLUE virus among Obama campaigners....

Obama's shrill myrmidons will cause the Democratic Party to pay a price in November; their self-righteous idolatry will seem not so "politically correct" when other Democrats and independents reflect and choose what's best for THEIR country....

[KimberlyKay]

What? My vote wasn't politically correct. It was based on sense and logic. Since Senator Obama has proven himself to be the stronger candidate supporting him seems ever so logical. There are a myriad of reasons I support Senator Obama and none of them have to do with the pigmentation in his skin. I am supporting him because he is best for our country and has both the best chance of defeating Senator McCain and the best chance of getting our Country out of the mess in which we currently find ourselves.

If you want a Democrat in the White House on January 9, 2009, maybe you should give Senator Obama a listen (an objective listen), or maybe you should research him -- do a plain google search, don't just go to Hillary44.com. See if you cannot see why we support him with our feet, our wallets and our fingers typing away in the blogosphere.
There are many reasons-- but political correctness is not high on anybody's list.
Yes we can do this, if we only open our minds and listen! Obama '08.

[dsmyre]

I saw that headline on "HillarySpeaksForMe.com"

[Binea]

Here's another thought..If Hillary gets out of the race now,and ends this as gracefully as she can ,and maybe do something good for the party as a senator or whatever,so good that the past sins will be forgivin. Her daughter ,whom most of us like..will have a real shot in politics,if not her daughter,then her daughters future husband..who knows.Think about her future, Hillary...It could be brighter than it looks now.

[butterworth]

***NEWSFLASH*** The world won't end if the Clintons take a break from politics for a generation or two.

My remark isn't intended as a slam against you, Binea. I've had enough of the Clintons, so when I hear suggestions that Chelsea will/should follow her parents into politics, it's frustrating. The Clintons have an enormous sense of entitlement, and the American public is enabling it. The fact that Chelsea has backed up her mother's lies about the "Bosnian snipers" suggests to me that she is about as credible as her parents. What has this 28-year old done to merit talk about a future in politics? She has gone to school and plopped into a very well-paying hedge fund job that was waiting for her upon graduation. She memorized her mother's talking points and hit the campaign trail. Does it make her better than millions of "kids" without the Clinton name and connections? Maybe after graduating she should have looked into joining the military. Hillary *claims* she herself tried to join the Marines but was rejected. Then Chelsea could have gone to Iraq and fought in the war HER MOTHER VOTED FOR. Wouldn't it be difficult for Chelsea to hold political office, since the press is not allowed to speak to her?

I've also heard the "Chelsea's husband can run for President" suggestion. Chelsea is not even married yet, but some have already deemed this as-of-yet-nonexistent spouse worthy of the highest elected office in the country.