No Re-Vote In Michigan A Blow To Clinton

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The Fix   |   April 5, 2008 11:43 AM


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The decision Friday by the Michigan Democratic Party executive committee not to hold a of re-run of their presidential primary further complicates Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (N.Y.) chances of catching Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in the popular vote count.

For much of the last few months, Clinton's campaign has pushed hard for re-do votes in Michigan and Florida, knowing that without wins in the those two states it is extremely difficult for the New York Senator to overtake Obama in the raw totals -- where he leads by more than 790,000 votes -- before the end of the nomination process on June 3.

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- Ping See Profile I'm a Fan of Ping permalink

Obama out lawyers Clinton. Wins Michigan.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:51 AM on 04/07/2008
- Nonamnesiac See Profile I'm a Fan of Nonamnesiac permalink

I think Hillary Clinton is a lying, warmongering person with a world view that is incredibly narrow who is unqualified to be President.

Nonetheless, there should be fair primary reruns in MI and FL or the Dems are much more likely to lose in Nov. FL voted blue in 2000, although those votes were counted red. MI voted for Kerry by 3.5% in 2004 and according to recent polls McCain is ahead of both Clinton and Obama by 3 points there.

Only a small percentage of voter defections in either state makes it nearly certain both will be red states, and the Dems must win at least one to win in Nov. A 2% defection of Dem voters in MI to McCain from the 2004 results makes that state red. FL leans red and MI leans blue, but screwing the electorates of both states over obscure Party rules punishes the electorates for the errors of the Party establishments statewide and nationally. It virtually guarantees voter defection from the Dems in November.

Obama and Hillary should agree to fair reruns of the MI and FL primaries or we are much more likely to see the lying, barbaric warmongerer John McCain elected President.

Partisans simply say (based on nothing) the Dems will win MI in November and would lose FL anyway. But those arguments are put forward as talking points and not based on facts. Screwing the voters of both states means, most likely, neither Obama nor Clinton win either state.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:06 AM on 04/07/2008
- mark77 See Profile I'm a Fan of mark77 permalink

1) Michigan legislators do represent the will of the people in MI. So according to state legislators, the people in MI, like those in FL, do not want a revote. Trying to force a revote on people who don't want one is not exactly the definition of voter enfranchisement.

2) There was a caucus proposal in MI and FL, because caucuses would be most cost-efficient, and the Clinton camp was staunchly against it in both states, rejecting it outright. So the Obama camp could claim that the Clinton camp is the one that stopped the revote process by rejecting the caucus proposals outright.

3) If the Clinton camp is so concerned about the "will of the voters," in MI and in the rest of the country, then they should take the position of the Obama camp that superdelegates should go with the will of the people. Still waiting for them to do that.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:53 PM on 04/06/2008
- BluMoonRising See Profile I'm a Fan of BluMoonRising permalink

Without the revote...there will always be BIG FAT QUESTION looming in everyones mind...Did he really win it? It's not not like those votes just "go away" because they are not legally counted. We all know they are there. We have one president that got the TOP JOB this way....now we may get TWO. How proud. It might be different but there is a way to "by the rules" let these people be counted. It was there politicians that screwed them out the vote...they shouldn't be punished or "SUPPRESSED" from voting in their own countries elections.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:45 AM on 04/06/2008
- Thatcher See Profile I'm a Fan of Thatcher permalink

That question is easily answered:

The breakdown of delegates in FL and MI are estimated at:

FL: 67 Obama, 105 Clinton, 13 Edwards

MI: 0 Obama, 73 Clinton, 55 uncommitted

Adding these to the current pledged count (of 1415 for Obama and 1251 for Clinton, per Real Clear Politics) - he leads her 1482 to 1429. Add in the current superdelegates (again, superdelegate count from RCP), he leads her 1703 to 1680 ... yes it's closer, but he still leads.

If you give her wins in PA , IN, WV, KY, GU and PR of 55-45 - while giving him wins in NC, IN, OR, MT, SD of the same ... she earns another 301 delegates to his 265 (approximately). This is giving the winner of the state every extra odd delegate in the Congressional Districts that have them in the state - plus their appropriate percentage of statewide delegates.

That would mean pledged delegates still have Obama in the lead with 1747 to 1730 for Clinton. Only adding in the CURRENT superdelegates does he fall behind to 1968 to 1981 (by 13 superdelegates). However, at the rate they have been pledging Obama - he will probably have those 13 he needs before the PA primary.

And that's not counting whatever he might pick up in the "Uncommitteds" in MI ... nor the "at large" Edwards delegates and their decisions in the state conventions in June.

So, if you do the math ... he still wins the delegate counts ...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:17 AM on 04/06/2008
- Nonamnesiac See Profile I'm a Fan of Nonamnesiac permalink

You awarded IN to both candidates.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:58 AM on 04/07/2008
- Thatcher See Profile I'm a Fan of Thatcher permalink

Oh yeah, and there are still 6 "Democrats Abroad" half-delegates to be divvied up (per RCP). Obama currently has the lead there 3-1 "whole" delegates of the ones already selected

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:23 AM on 04/06/2008
- FreedomLoverX See Profile I'm a Fan of FreedomLoverX permalink

Yes, of course they should revote. But, without that, a very generous offer, because at this point he might actually win there.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:37 AM on 04/06/2008
- tlk221 See Profile I'm a Fan of tlk221 permalink

50-50 is the same as not counting them at all

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:52 PM on 04/05/2008
- ObamaSuperDelegate See Profile I'm a Fan of ObamaSuperDelegate permalink

So, you're saying that's unfair to her, is the other way unfair to him? Let's be real people, they both agreed that these votes would not count. Why do people want to change the rules in the middle of the game to benefit their candidate? Either way, you're going to piss a lot of people off, so the best thing to do is play by the rules or split them 50/50. Keep it equal and no favoritism is being shown!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:46 AM on 04/06/2008
- AbbieXHoffman See Profile I'm a Fan of AbbieXHoffman permalink

Splitting the votes in unacceptable. A revote is the ONLY democratic thing to do.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:25 PM on 04/05/2008
- BeerHolder See Profile I'm a Fan of BeerHolder permalink

What makes you think we live in a democracy?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:17 AM on 04/06/2008
- victoriajubilee See Profile I'm a Fan of victoriajubilee permalink

ObamaHagel 2008

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:20 PM on 04/05/2008
- LeoMarvin See Profile I'm a Fan of LeoMarvin permalink

No. Just being an admirable person who takes a courageous stand on the war isn't the only thing that matters. You have to assume the VP will become President. Then all his policies come into play: tax cuts for the wealthy, right wing judicial nominations, etc. In virtually every way except the Iraq war, Chuck Hagel is a mainstream conservative -- more so even than John McCain.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:31 PM on 04/05/2008
- IslandGyal See Profile I'm a Fan of IslandGyal permalink

And don't forget the Supreme Court and Roe v Wade.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:35 PM on 04/05/2008
- SShaw490 See Profile I'm a Fan of SShaw490 permalink

Bless you. My dream ticket. If not that, then Obama/Webb.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:34 PM on 04/05/2008
- Intruder See Profile I'm a Fan of Intruder permalink

Please read below and tell us how this overt attempt by Clinton to overturn REAL, ACTUAL VOTES jives with all of these bullsh*t cries of her sudden concern about disenfranchised votes in Michigan and Florida. [hint: it's a rhetorical question. You can't reconcile the 2 positions. It's too bad mouths only have 2 sides to speak out of, otherwise Hillary could be much more productive].


CLINTON ASKS OBAMA PLEDGED DELEGATES IN NORTH DAKOTA TO SWITCH

Political Radar | ELOISE HARPER and SUNLEN MILLER | April 5, 2008 04:31 PM

Sen. Hillary Clinton made a blunt appeal to North Dakota delegates to switch their support to her, despite the fact that Sen. Barack Obama handily defeated her in the state's caucus in February.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:12 PM on 04/05/2008
- nellie See Profile I'm a Fan of nellie permalink

This is an excellent point.

"Close to 600,000 Michiganians cast ballots in January and these votes cannot be ignored," said deputy communications director Phil Singer.

The Clinton campaign simply cannot take a principled stand for making sure people's votes are counted and at the same time lobby for delegates to go against the votes of their constituents. I think they must assume people aren't paying attention. That we're not connecting these statements. It's as if they don't realize there is an internet.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:32 PM on 04/05/2008
- mrJJ See Profile I'm a Fan of mrJJ permalink

October 11, 2007
Flashback: Does Michigan Matter to Clinton?

Hillary Clinton, during which she was asked about the Michigan primary:

"I personally did not think it made any difference, whether or not my name was on the ballot. You knowit's clear, in this election they're having, it is not going to count for anything."

http://www.youtube.com/user/MDRUDGE

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:06 PM on 04/05/2008
- soot See Profile I'm a Fan of soot permalink

I freaking love it, first she would have nothing to do with finding a solution to the mess that Michigan and Florida got themselves into; then refused to follow the rules and left her name on the ballots when the rest of the candidates agreed to take theirs off; then she howled like hell for a re-vote, and when those states turned it down now she's pleading that the results have already been tallied from the first vote and should be awarded to her when it was clearly an uneven vote.

Split the delegates 50/50, there, the states have a say and everyone can shut up.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:02 PM on 04/05/2008
- roncraw See Profile I'm a Fan of roncraw permalink

Don't tell me your an Obama supporter.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:19 PM on 04/05/2008
- hubbstan See Profile I'm a Fan of hubbstan permalink

1. Hillary then signed on the DNC ruling that MI and FL votes don't count
2. Hillary now against that ruling and accused DNC don't care about MI/FL voters
3. Does that make Hillary Judas?

1. Hillary asked Obama's pledged delegates to switch to her.
2. Is Hillary building a country of Judases?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:35 PM on 04/05/2008
- 3billis811 See Profile I'm a Fan of 3billis811 permalink

Ah. So it's not really about the voters is it? It's all about Hillary.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:44 PM on 04/05/2008
- SShaw490 See Profile I'm a Fan of SShaw490 permalink

Clinton should be happy getting pledged delegates split 50/50 and allowing the Florida and Michigan supers to do whatever they want. And no adds to the popular vote totals either way. That way, she stands to get some superdelegates from those states. In reality, if the DNC had any balls at all, they'd cut off any further conversation about it. They told the state Democratic conventions what would happen if they rescheduled the primaries, the primaries got rescheduled anyway, and the DNC did what they said they'd do. End of story. If the DNC wimps out (again), what's going to happen next time when North Carolina or some other state moves their primary up? Wimp out again?

I remember Barack Obama talking to Charlie Rose in November '02 about the Iraq war vote, saying, "I think we should have stuck to our guns and took our political licks if that's what it came to, rather than do what Democrats frequently do, which is to cave and then whine about it later. Which makes us look not only weak, but also petty." So Hillary and the DNC caved and now they're all whining about it - which makes them look not only weak but also petty.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:00 PM on 04/05/2008
- DGregory See Profile I'm a Fan of DGregory permalink

the best solution is to have both fla/michigan to have their delegates split.

revotes is impossible due to cost and you have no idea how many new registrations or what to just say yea lets just vote based on democratic registrys

the two states state congressmen fubar the situation and the dnc should just come out and say.. the delegates will be setted 50/50

just imagine how fair can it be to have them setted as is... edwards couldve got a large percent of votes

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:39 PM on 04/05/2008
- BlackLeatherRain See Profile I'm a Fan of BlackLeatherRain permalink

Hillary had about 50% in MI anyhow with Obama NOT on the ticket. She should be leaping at the chance to agree with Obama's camp on this, and then everyone's happy.

Except Florida, of course.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:28 PM on 04/05/2008
- TheRealMacDaddy See Profile I'm a Fan of TheRealMacDaddy permalink

Pardon me, but...I do remember with absolute certainty hearing Hillary Clinton saying that the "It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything," So do you think she would be better off with 50% of the delgation or zero?

The Agreement she SIGNED said...

Four State Pledge Letter 2008
Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina

August 31, 2007

WHEREAS, Over a year ago, the Democratic National Committee established a
2008 nominating calendar;

WHEREAS, this calendar honors the racial, ethnic, economic and geographic
diversity of our party and our country;

WHEREAS, the DNC also honored the traditional role of retail politics early in the
nominating process, to insure that money alone will not determine our
presidential nominee;

WHEREAS, it is the desire of Presidential campaigns, the DNC, the states and
the American people to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the
nominating calendar.

THEREFORE, I _______________, Democratic Candidate for President, pledge
I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential
election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa,
Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as "campaigning" is defined by
rules and regulations of the DNC.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:40 PM on 04/05/2008
- JWLANDSCAPES See Profile I'm a Fan of JWLANDSCAPES permalink

So Kucinich broke the rules too? What is defined as participate? Is Hillary a name on a ballot participating? Is the Obama campaign actively sending the message out to vote "uncommitted" in Michigan, participating? What is participating? With INTERNET access, didn't they all break the rules?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:46 PM on 04/05/2008
- TheRealMacDaddy See Profile I'm a Fan of TheRealMacDaddy permalink

Actually, Dennis Kucinich attempted to remove his name from the Michigan Ballot but his letter requesting it arrived a day too late...Do some research! It's called Google.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:46 PM on 04/05/2008
- PensacolaTiger See Profile I'm a Fan of PensacolaTiger permalink

Stop trying to confuse the issue with the facts, eh?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:07 PM on 04/05/2008
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