Scientists: Big Quake Likely in Calif.

LOS ANGELES — California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast. New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

"It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.

The 1994 Northridge earthquake under Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley was magnitude 6.7. It killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage in the metropolitan area.

The damage created by an earthquake depends greatly on where it hits. A 7.1 quake _ much stronger than Northridge _ hit the Mojave Desert in 1999 but caused only a few injuries and no deaths.

California is one of the world's most seismically active regions. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt.

The analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.

For example, a 2003 report found the San Francisco Bay Area faced a 62 percent chance of being struck by a magnitude 6.7 quake by 2032. The new study increased the likelihood slightly to 63 percent by 2037. For the Los Angeles Basin, the probability is higher at 67 percent. There is no past comparison for the Los Angeles area.

Scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say the analysis should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country.

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Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the potential severity of ground shaking in an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates.

"A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of the earthquake center, which is headquartered at the University of Southern California.

Researchers also calculated the statewide probabilities for larger temblors over the same time period. Among their findings: There is a 94 percent chance of a magnitude 7 shock or larger; a 46 percent chance of a magnitude 7.5 and a 4.5 percent chance of a magnitude 8.

The odds are higher that a magnitude 7.5 quake will hit Southern California than Northern California _ 37 percent versus 15 percent.

Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield in central California southeast to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section.

The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, but the southernmost segment has not popped in more than three centuries.

Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino east of Los Angeles.

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On the Net:

U.S. Geological Survey: http://www.usgs.gov

Southern California Earthquake Center: http://www.scec.org

California Geological Survey: http://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/

Comments

[Moshe]

Among the things that most concern me is this: Americans, from our collective government to individuals, have been squandering our resources like drunken sailors on leave, from the financial black hole in Iraq to irresponsible personal spending. Our Nation is in debt, credit lines are maxed out, even our military resources are stretched to the limits.

So what happens when (notice I didn't say if) there is a serious national emergency?

While we are flushing our financial and military resources down the unnecessary Iraq War tiolet and running like little girls from the proverbial "terrorist" the Bush/Cheney administration loves to dangle in front of us, especially at election time, we are totally ignoring natural disasters and challenges that are certain. They will happen, it's just a matter of when and how bad.

Massive earthquakes, fires, droughts, crop failures, pandemics? These are a natural, expected part of life on this planet.

If we are prepared, we can manage and survive.

If we are not prepared, we will see catastrophic consequences from chaos to massive loss of life.

Let's face it. We are not prepared.

Time to get prepared dammit. Start with yourself and your family. Set aside emergency supplies including adequate food, water, and medicine for the likely challenges in your area. Set aside some extra for your neighbors; get to know your neighbors; create a sense of community, and demand a government that actually does it's one legitimate function: Protecting the life, liberty, and property of the People.

[vegasobserver]

This "statistic" is really meaningless. Of course there's likely to be a big quake in Southern Cal. They're predicting a 99.7% chance of a 6.7 quake before 2037? Well, the Northridge quake in the 90s was 6.7? So all they're saying is there's likely to be another Northridge-like quake within 20 years... Why this should be a big, shocking surprise to anyone is unclear.

[souris]

....................THIS JUST IN: I predict its going to rain in Oregon within the next few days.......stay tuned...........news and pictures at 11:00pm....................................

[Faux]

I read this story a few days back but I didn't catch the estimate richter scale info...

5% chance of an 8.0 earthquake? Holy crap... Northridge was only 6.7, and I was bounced around like crazy in that one. If anything that big comes through here we're going to be sifting through rubble for years.

[ExPatriot70]

If and when the bigone comes, some Pat Robertson type fundie nuts will say God did it because California is open to all life styles and in all his vast wisdom the big sky daddy decided to clean house

[LoRiseAntlers]

And this is new information in what way?

[Paul]

Predicting earthquakes is like predicting the stock market - easy to be wrong.

[DC8P4DCEFE]

Those underground nuclear tests in the 70's in Nevada helped that fault line out also.

[mamacat]

Thank God we had Clinton in the White House after the 1994 Northridge quake! Can anyone imagine how the Republicans would have reacted? If Bush had been the President, does anyone doubt that the relief efforts would have been primarily aimed at making his big-business cronies richer, while doing almost nothing to help people and repair the infrastructure? The example of what happened in New Orleans, when this do-nothing President played the guitar for reporters at his ranch, while people were literally drowning in New Orleans, should remind us all how important it is to elect a Democrat this time.

As to the likelihood of an Earthquake in Southern California, another big one is overdue. Let's hope that when another big one does hit, the California National Gaurd is available to do its job, because they will surely be needed here at home.

[scottyboi84]

Well, it's astounding to me that they just put these statistics out. Hasn't there always been fault lines in California? And they just now have finished studying them? This is another example of America's poor budget financing. This is an issue that I would not be upset to see the government spend more time, effort and resources on. This pertains to our basic need for a safe place to have a home and raise our families, so this is very necessary and certainly deserves some national attention.

[THEhillbilly]

We're in a bit of danger of having either Bill Clinton's mendacious, vainglorious wife Hillary or demented hatemonger Jeremiah Wright's loquacious, done-nothing protege Obama in the White House, and at the same time people have to be concerned about a relatively benign thing like another natural disaster. Nothing can stop the world, but thankfully those two disasters are doing a pretty good job of stopping each other.

[JohnFromCensornati]

John McDisaster's lies will be shredded soon enough.
You'd better get used to one of those other two disasters in the White House.
Most of the population does not want more Bush.

[Abycat]

McCain will just have a heart attack. So old he smells!

[kestrel9000]

Feh.
Epic fail.
Get off the computer and go caress your gun barrel with nice, warm, fragrant oil until you find satisfaction and release.

[swoosie1]

We need to know if this is a possible terrorist conspiracy......

[newworldman777]

Note to Californians: Just try to avoid underground parking lots between now and "the big one," because even though George Kennedy is still around somewhere (ancient though he is), we no longer have Charleston Heston around to rescue you. You are on your own, people!

[coolrepublica]

The quake will happen if Obama does not become president. We must elect Obama so we can save our souls, our home, make us feel smart and most importantly so we can save California.

Please America, elect our wise and mighty saviour "The One" Obama. California is counting on you.

[Harrier]

I say it will not happen- and...