Undecided superdelegates don't feel bound by primaries

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STEPHEN OHLEMACHER | April 20, 2008 03:15 PM EST | AP

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WASHINGTON — Many of the Democratic superdelegates who are still undecided say the most important factor in their decision is simple _ they just want a winner in November.

Problem is, after nearly four months of primaries and caucuses in 46 states, territories and the District of Columbia, they still aren't sure who that is, don't seem be in any hurry to make up their minds and aren't interested in any artificial process that might force them to choose between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Most of the more than 100 undecided superdelegates who discussed their decision-making with The Associated Press in the past two weeks agreed that the primaries and caucuses do matter _ whether it's who has the most national delegates or the candidate who won their state or congressional district. But few said the primaries will be the biggest factor in their decision.

"I think it's really important that we keep our eye on the prize, and the prize is the win in November," said Gail Rasmussen, an undecided superdelegate from Oregon.

That's good news for Clinton, who cannot catch Obama in delegates won in the few remaining primaries and caucuses.

Obama has been arguing for months that the superdelegates would be overturning the will of the voters if they don't nominate the candidate who has won the most pledged delegates. He has a 164-delegate lead in that category. Clinton, meanwhile, has argued that superdelegates should exercise independent judgment.

Many of the undecided superdelegates say they don't want to be perceived as elite insiders, cutting backroom deals to select a nominee. But that doesn't mean they're ready to forfeit their status.

"The way the system is set up, the superdelegates are able to weigh in because we are the most experienced people in the party," said Blake Johnson, an undecided superdelegate from Alaska. "We are the ones who have been part of the party the longest and keep it running on a day-to-day basis."

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There will be nearly 800 superdelegates at the party's national convention in Denver this summer. They are the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and are free to support whomever they choose. They are in high demand now that neither Clinton nor Obama can clinch the nomination without them.

Clinton leads in superdelegate endorsements, 258-232, according to the latest tally by the AP. However, Obama has been eating away at her lead for much of the past two months, picking up 84 percent of the superdelegate endorsements since Super Tuesday.

About 250 superdelegates have told the AP they are undecided or uncommitted. About 60 more will be selected at state party conventions and meetings this spring.

AP reporters across the nation contacted the undecideds and asked them how they plan to choose. Of those, 117 agreed to discuss the decision-making process.

_About a third said the most important factor will be the candidate who, they believe, has the best chance of beating Republican John McCain in the general election.

_One in 10 said the biggest factor will be the candidate with the most pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses.

_One in 10 said what matters most is who won their state or congressional district in the primary or caucus.

_The rest cited multiple factors or parochial issues.

Most undecided superdelegates surveyed said they hope the nomination is settled before the party's convention. However, by more than a 2-to-1 margin, they said they oppose any formal mechanism, such as a separate primary or caucus, for the superdelegates to decide the nomination.

"I think that is changing the rules in the middle of the process," said Rep. Dan Boren of Oklahoma. "Obviously there are some problems with the process; there need to be some reforms made. Frankly, I would favor the people making the decision rather than insiders and party bosses."

Many undecided superdelegates refused to discuss their decision-making process, showing discomfort with the subject. Eighty-nine undecided superdelegates didn't return repeated phone calls or e-mails in the past two weeks, and 42 refused to discuss their decision when they were contacted.

"If I answer any of those (questions), people might be able to divine which way I am leaning," said Wayne Kinney, an undecided superdelegate from Oregon.

Even some experienced pols demurred.

"I'm not saying anything," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel, an Illinois superdelegate and a former aide to President Clinton. "There's no value to it."

___

Associated Press writers Julia Silverman in Portland, Ore.; Steve Quinn in Juneau, Alaska; Ron Jenkins in Oklahoma City and Dennis Conrad in Washington contributed to this report.

WASHINGTON — Many of the Democratic superdelegates who are still undecided say the most important factor in their decision is simple _ they just want a winner in November. Problem is, after nea...
WASHINGTON — Many of the Democratic superdelegates who are still undecided say the most important factor in their decision is simple _ they just want a winner in November. Problem is, after nea...
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- cramos I'm a Fan of cramos 2 fans permalink

Called Politics

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:45 PM on 04/20/2008
- McFlipFlop I'm a Fan of McFlipFlop 14 fans permalink
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So, are they planning to use a crystal ball to determine who will be electable in November? Nobody really knows that.

What we do know is that one of the candidates will have won more delegates from the primary voting. That's the best indicator of who can win in November.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:29 PM on 04/20/2008
- meileen I'm a Fan of meileen 9 fans permalink

"What we do know is that one of the candidates will have won more delegates from the primary voting. That's the best indicator of who can win in November."

Yeah, well, with that reasoning, there would be no supers, now would there?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:46 PM on 04/20/2008

Why do they bother with primaries at all? The party elite know what's best for us stupid little people, why bother with the charade and just have the super delegates decide who the candidate is from now on. No need to waste any of our time or efforts or all this money with caucuses and primaries.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:32 PM on 04/20/2008
- McFlipFlop I'm a Fan of McFlipFlop 14 fans permalink
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Oh, I think the supers are rather obsolete. They just want to act important and go to a big party.

How do you propose that they determine who can win in November? Use polls? A crystal ball?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:23 PM on 04/20/2008

As everyone knows, the default position in the Democratic party contest for the nomination has always been Hillary Clinton. As the wife of a recent former President, we all know that a large number of Superdelegates have and will support her purely out of loyalty and a sense of obligation. A good number of these people have admitted that they would prefer to support Obama if not for ties to Clinton. This is the group, not those exercising "independent judgement", that has the potential to hand Clinton the nomination in spite of her having fewer pledged delegates and her having lost the popular vote. If this happens, there will be and should be a revolt at the polls in November.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:25 PM on 04/20/2008

Ditto. I believe there will be if this happens. I can see McCain or some Independent getting more democratic votes than any other non democrat in history.

Also, if they want to make a serious mistake and alienate the young vote that will certainly spell demise.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:27 PM on 04/20/2008

There would be a revolt long before the polls. The party would split apart. This is why Pelosi says what she does - the supers cannot overturn the vote without dire consequences.

I don't know what the point of this article is, other than to fan the wild hopes of the Clinton people who are having severe trouble with reality as it is.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:29 PM on 04/20/2008
- Amminadab I'm a Fan of Amminadab 11 fans permalink

We don't seem to be the ones in a panic.

Cam Obama win Pennslyvania? 'Cuz that would surely shut us up.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:52 PM on 04/20/2008

After 15 months you mean to tell me these idiots still don't know who to commit to?

Bill and Hill must be holding something over their heads. I say kick all of them out. If they don't know who they prefer at this point, then they really are a bunch of idiots.

Commit already and save the american people all the grief of HRC running with no way of winning.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:20 PM on 04/20/2008
- Amminadab I'm a Fan of Amminadab 11 fans permalink

Yes, yes, as with EVERYTHING else..... it MUST be Hillary's fault that the superdelegates have not all decided yet. Sheesh.

Maybe they're waiting to see who has momentum.

Pennslyvania ought to help in that regard.

Will Obama have the momentum after PA?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:54 PM on 04/20/2008

If the superdelegates can't decide and honer the voice of the people, well... they will be losers during the election. So Sups you better start thinking hard and I mean hard what direction this country will be going. Character speaks louder and that is somewhere you can start thinking first and for most.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:14 PM on 04/20/2008
- MizFlagPin I'm a Fan of MizFlagPin 21 fans permalink

What is really going on with these SD's?

Blake Johnson, the undecided superdelegate from Alaska, says the SD's have rank. Over whom? They've been there the longest. They run things on a daily basis he said. The process doesn't trump the people's desire Mr. Johnson.

And Rep. Rahm Emanuel, an Illinois superdelegate, thinks in terms of "value". In other words, what is it worth. To whom Mr. Emanuel. To you, the Democratic Party, the voter, our Country? To whom or what?

What is really going on?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:11 PM on 04/20/2008
- deb813 I'm a Fan of deb813 5 fans permalink

Rahm Emanuel will pick Clinton the loser over Obama the winner FROM HIS STATE. I think we are disecting these freakin superdelegates a little too much, they are politicians. Hillary has insulted HUGE segments of the Democratic party who WON"T come out and vote for HER or anybody else down the line on the ballot . They may not say they will go to Obama now because probably whoever donates to Hillary donates to them too but at the end of this when Obama comes out on top. HE WILL BE THE CANDIDATE.

Hillary Clinton is Hillary Clinton not Freddy Krueger.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:15 PM on 04/20/2008
- UNCLEJOE I'm a Fan of UNCLEJOE 56 fans permalink
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Rep. Rahm Emanuel, an Illinois super-delegate, is a Red Dog Democrat who has backed Red Dog Democratic Candidates that have formed a block in the HR that vote with the Republicans right along with Hillary on the Iraq war and the Kyl-Libermann Bill setting the excuse for bombing Iran.

Rahm Emanuel is too powerful in his role of subverting the will of the majority of the Democratic Congressmen. He is Hillary's 'ace in the hole' who can be crucial in twisting arms of Super Delegates to vote-in Hillary as the Democratic Nominee and overturn the will of the 70% of Americans who have voted in 2006 to pull out of Iraq.

Pennsylvania has to be a very big win for Obama this Tuesday in order to neutralize Rep. Rahm Emanuel's influence over uncommitted Super Delegates.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:43 PM on 04/20/2008
- Fabienne I'm a Fan of Fabienne 31 fans permalink

Rahm Emanuel didn't manage to keep Howard Dean out of the chairmanship of the DNC. The party's over for him and his ilk.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:33 PM on 04/20/2008
- Fabienne I'm a Fan of Fabienne 31 fans permalink

Rahm Emanuel is a DLC thug who throws temper tantrums when he doesn't get his way. I can't imagine him having any other value than putting himself first.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:32 PM on 04/20/2008
- mishte I'm a Fan of mishte 6 fans permalink

The superdelegates have to vote based on putting one candidate over the top, right?

What if they agreed to vote now, which would eliminate the worry of being viewed as overturning voter will or being undemocratic? Their votes would just be added, making the elections the deciding factor, their input supplemental (even if they all sided with one candidate, the perception would not be that they overruled).

Clearly, they're not bound to the vote of their constituencies or primary results or popular vote, all of which would compel them to wait.

Just something I've wondered about.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:59 PM on 04/20/2008

Or, how about this, they wait and do this he eway ot was meant to be done and decide who will be the better candidate for the general AFTER all the primaries are done and they have a clearer picture of who would do better against McCain?

You do know that ALL the super delegates don't even VOTE until the convention and any of them that has declared already can still change their mind.

You never know what might happen to either candidate in the future.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:12 PM on 04/20/2008

It appears that Senator Obama's followers are threatening demonstrations in the streets of Denver if he loses the nomination. This is just what I thought would happen when people get caught up in a movement that has no basis in reality. Is this the kind of intimidation that took place in the caucuses? If Senator Obama is the nominee, I will not vote for him but I certainly would not threaten to demonstrate outside the Convention or anywhere else. It is very frightening to think that the country might be forced to accept a Democratic nominee or a President in order to avoid demonstrations.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:51 PM on 04/20/2008
- DocJerome I'm a Fan of DocJerome 22 fans permalink

Why would try to put that out there? That, is a lie based on your assumptions.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:07 PM on 04/20/2008
- boombox I'm a Fan of boombox 8 fans permalink

It is really annoying that you're just making this crap up. I guess it's what happens when you support a candidate whose mania to win has no basis in reality.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:08 PM on 04/20/2008

alwayslearning....a term used loosely, I imagine.
I hate it when people, like you, make baseless allegations with no proof of the alledged crime.
Show us proof on the intimidation at caucuses that you're speaking of. Oh, there ins't any? I thought so.
When is it so crazy that the voting majority wants the leader in votes and delegates to actually win?
I guess with elections of late, it has become fashionable to let the looser win.
Or have you forgotten how it's supposed to work?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:18 PM on 04/20/2008

I know exactly how it is supposed to work. It is supposed to work just the way this article says. The super delegates are SUPPOSED to use their judgement to vote for the candidate they feel has the better chance to win.

It is Obama supporters who don't understand the process. Somehow they got the idea that the super delegates were put in place to rubber stamp the candidate in the lead even if the candidate doesn't have the required 2024 delegates to win the nomination.

Maybe they got this false impression because many of them are NEW to the process and never really understood it fully.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:18 PM on 04/20/2008

Demonstrations will only occur if, after all figures point towards Obama, somehow Hillary has managed to buy the nomination. You betcha, we will voice our opinions!! Hillary is not going to give this country back to the people. She will keep it undercovers for the elite!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:20 PM on 04/20/2008

alwayslearning ---> I think you meant to say this....

It appears that Senator Clinton's followers are threatening demonstrations in the streets of Denver if she loses the nomination (on what basis...after losing the delegate count, # of States won, or popular vote loss). This is just what I thought would happen when people get caught up in a movement that has no solution but lies, deception and true entitlement. Is this the kind of intimidation that took place in the Nevada caucuses where the Clinton camp closed the door for people coming to caucus for Senator Obama further sued not to hold a caucus in the hotels to disenfranchise the people of Las Vegas, Nevada? If Senator Clinton is the nominee, I will not vote for her but I certainly would not threaten to demonstrate outside the Convention or anywhere else. It is very frightening to think that the country might be forced to accept a Democratic nominee or a President in order to avoid demonstrations.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:25 PM on 04/20/2008

Elitism means "leadership or rule by an Elite". It is the height of hypocrisy for Clinton to slam Obama as an elitist and then ask the party elite to overturn the will of the voters.

This quote from the article sums up exactly how morally bankrupt the Clinton approach is: "The way the system is set up, the superdelegates are able to weigh in because we are the most experienced people in the party," said Blake Johnson, an undecided superdelegate from Alaska. "We are the ones who have been part of the party the longest and keep it running on a day-to-day basis."

Oh, please decide for us, elite insiders! I mean really, if these several hundred insiders know what is best for us, why vote at all?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:50 PM on 04/20/2008

Great point. Bad system.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:50 PM on 04/20/2008

yes, but you know what Obama supporters always say.... You can't change the rules everyone agreed to in the middle oft he game....

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:20 PM on 04/20/2008
- Fabienne I'm a Fan of Fabienne 31 fans permalink

Right, that college kid from Marquette who is a superdelegate (profiled on The Colbert Report, I believe) has been in the party the longest (he must have joined as an infant) and kept it running on a day-to-day basis.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:37 PM on 04/20/2008

I see a lot of HRC supporters coming here really hot under the collar at this prospect!!! For good reason!!! Those supers that verbally said they would back Hillary early on in the primaries have seen Hillary for what she really is and so have many of their constituants who voted for Hillary waaaaay back in January/February. They are truly sorry for their votes.

Get used to hearing this -

President Barack Obama.

PRESIDENT Barack Obama.

President BARACK Obama

President Barack OBAMA

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!!!

Yeah - has a nice ring to it, doesn't it?? And when he turns government on its ears and upside down and hands it back to the people, the ring will just get louder!!

Go Obama!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:47 PM on 04/20/2008

You got it!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:26 PM on 04/20/2008

But what will you say if he doesn't win the nomination or if he does he loses in November?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:35 AM on 04/21/2008
- XYZ I'm a Fan of XYZ 2 fans permalink

This is how it works for those undecideds, they will wait until the last minute so they can sell out there vote to the candidate that has the most powerful political machine. Hillary doesn't have that, proof in point, Obama was a upstart Cinderella story that is now has Hillary Clinton on the ropes. This was HRC's nomination to loose, and she did so. If hillary doesn't win 64% votes she will not catch up in his super-delegate lead, however she will defiantly have a popular vote lead. She really needs a 15 pt smack down to keep the delegate hill from getting any steeper. If she doesn't make that margin she will need to win by more percentage points in the remaining elections, which will be harder to do.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:47 PM on 04/20/2008
- McFlipFlop I'm a Fan of McFlipFlop 14 fans permalink
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My only quibble with what you wrote is this: Hillary does NOT have the popular vote lead, and is very unlikely to have it at the end of the primaries.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:34 PM on 04/20/2008

she will have the popular vote lead by then end of the primaries.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:21 PM on 04/20/2008
- OtayPanky I'm a Fan of OtayPanky 66 fans permalink
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RECIPE FOR MCCAIN VICTORY

==========­==========­====

Part 1 - The Primaries

1. Obama wins regular delegate majority
2. Obama wins popular vote
3. Dems nominate Clinton

Part 2 - The Election

1. Blacks (most reliable dem voting block) stay home in droves
2. Disengaged conservatives come out in force against Clinton
3. President McCain sworn in

Sounds like a plan! Jeesh!!!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:39 PM on 04/20/2008
- SickOfSpin I'm a Fan of SickOfSpin 3 fans permalink
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OtayPanky--You are ABSOLUTELY right! Every step is predictable...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:45 PM on 04/20/2008

But they are the most experienced.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:48 PM on 04/20/2008

You forgot the youth vote that rose up like a wave for Obama. Will they really support Clinton if the superdelegates overturn the will of the people?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:59 PM on 04/20/2008

You think Clinton cares...not really! She does not give a crap about regular people if Bill is pulling $100M in speeches. Well, that will end as well because of Bill's huge gaffs in this election that stooped his standing in the world. So she losses and take the country with her.

The funny thing is she has done a damage to any future women President. Well, I take that back..it is not funny, it is SAD!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:31 PM on 04/20/2008
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I don't see that happening! This is for some youth the first time that they can have a say in who becomes President. To have Hillary Clinton steal it away with the same old dirty tricks would not go over very well, to put it mildly.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:42 PM on 04/20/2008
- CTmom13 I'm a Fan of CTmom13 9 fans permalink

As a mother of two youth 1st time voters I can tell you they will stay home and not vote if Hillary is the nominee

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:57 PM on 04/20/2008

Not just the black voters, the young voters will stay home too. And don't forget number 4, no coattails for Clinton without all those Democratic voters showing up, so not only do we get President McCain we also get a Republican majority in the senate.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:39 PM on 04/20/2008
- karela I'm a Fan of karela 83 fans permalink

If fat cat party insiders overturn the will of the people, they won't have to worry about some hard feelings. They'll have to deal with demonstrations in a hundred different cities and the certainty that the ones who did it won't ever win another election. These are elected officials and they do want to be reelected. I don't worry that they'll get it wrong in the end. Right now, they're just hoping for a miracle so they don't have to make anybody mad, but they won't turn on the people's vote. It would be political suicide.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:32 PM on 04/20/2008

This super-delegate dustup is about as phony as a three dollar bill. Anyone claiming they are "holding out" for Hillary is lying through their teeth. The ONLY point in time that they can safely go for her is now. They know with total certainty that Obama will lead at the end. They absolutely can't go against the voters after the primaries because they know it will destroy the party that provides their job, their status, their very self-worth. Going against us (the voters) will kill the golden goose they live off, and they are very aware of that fact.

If they want Hillary it is now or never.....and very few are declaring now.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:59 PM on 04/20/2008

The super delegates must realize they are beholden to their constituents. I will personally vote out the super delegates from MD who overturn the delegate count, most popular vote and more states won.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:31 PM on 04/20/2008
- Tropiholic I'm a Fan of Tropiholic 20 fans permalink

I'm from MD too and I couldn't agree more HUFF.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:09 PM on 04/20/2008

will you also advocate vote the destruction of the super delegates who went against their constituents and endorsed Obama whenCinton won their state?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:24 PM on 04/20/2008
- erykah I'm a Fan of erykah 6 fans permalink

There seems to be no rhyme nor reason to this process. If these knuckleheads cannot determine at this point in the primary who there better candidate is then they are a sorry bunch. It has been 15 long months. God help! We need a third party.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:26 PM on 04/20/2008
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