Pennsylvania Primary Helps John McCain

NY Times :

For better or worse -- and many Democrats fear it is for worse -- the race goes on.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton defeated Senator Barack Obama in Pennsylvania on Tuesday by enough of a margin to continue a battle that Democrats increasingly believe is undermining their effort to unify the party and prepare for the general election against Senator John McCain.

Read the whole story: NY Times

Comments

[deb813]

Where does she suppose she is going to find the votes she needs if she manages to somehow steal this nomination? Republicans hate her and are salivating for the chance to pick her oh so sanctimonious bones. The young that Obama has mobilized and the African Americans will never vote for her because she STOLE the election. She has insulted the small states, the caucus states, the 48 states that played by the rules. She has insulted Moveon.org.

If I were a superdelegate I'd move over to Obama NOW and get rid of the loser who cannot win unless she steals the nomination. Contrary to popular belief, states that picked Hillary do not matter more then the twice as many who voted for Obama.

And before the Clinton supporters say she can still win, she is BEHIND in every metric needed to win the election . Her overwhelming win got her 10 delegates. It's an awfully long road to win by the RULES. So who is going to vote for her in the end?

[johnpherson]

All I said was "blind faith in the military industrial complex is like paying for your own funeral."

[johnpherson]

Blind faith in the Military Industrial Complex is like paying for your own funeral.

[FunGuy13]

Is it me or does it seem that Obama's camp seem to be very thin skinnned & can't seem to handle losing graciously?!?!

[SkoolOFBarROCK]

what are you talking about.. Hillary already lost the nomination why can't she bow out graciously??

[FunGuy13]

Huh? I don't think so...arithmetically, based on the current delegates alloted, Obama cannot win the nomination. The selection will be dependent of the super-delegates & possibly the DNC Committe....

[haboob]

it is called repressed rage and no you are not alone

[soundfury]

Just wait til the cackling shrew is carried out kicking and screaming, then we'll see who the sore loser really is.

[Indyfromny]

Obama has already won. At this point its about Hillarys ego.

[FunGuy13]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080423/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_analysis;_ylt=Asx1EzAWI38FIeKCRhPGUyayFz4D

[butchie65]

You must be one that doesn't understand politics. Hillary is still the looser, ask her why she can't handle loosing ?

[morticia]

HEY OBAMA supporters, maybe we should all band together and send him a nice BUNDLE OF CASH!!
help to keep that smile on his face.

[doublesvb]

he is handsome, isn't he

[NochlessMonster]

I had to laugh when I saw the headline. How very true, last night was a win for McCain!

He is still free to wander aimlessly around the country, saying what ever he wishes to say, unopposed at every turn.

[lornejl]

How many are for cutting one penny from the military budget ? Sorry, you lose, you are an America hater.

[johnpherson]

Huh?

[EggsBolinski]

I would say cut alot of the military budget. We should be sending friendly people to all these countries instead. It is alot cheaper and well you make friends!

[Indyfromny]

Thats just crazy talk.

[urbanscorpio88]

Excuse me miss, are high?

[johnpherson]

Were the roles reversed Obama would have left the race in a dignified manner 2/3rds maybe even earlier,into a Clinton "run" of 12 straight primary wins.
But Ms. Clinton is an Establishment candidate just as is McCain. The Powers that Be aren't taking any chances with a "Peoples" movement that has attached itself to Obama, and a Corporate Media is making sure of it now by participating in the creation of a caricature of Obama's as radical leftist. (He is not.)

[soundfury]

Hillary: Manchurian candidate of the right
McCain: Fall guy of the right
Obama: Target of the right, the media, hillary and McCain

[haboob]

for obama you left out women old and young, latinos asians blue collar workers you will soon be adding more to this list

[gopindrag]

If she steals the nomination, I promise I will vote against John McCain.

[soundfury]

I bet you will!

[williamgg]

Now, let's project out the delegate race.

Total Delegates:

Obama - 1655
Clinton - 1513

I doubt Hillary will pick up more than 8 delegates tonight. Obama should pick up 73, Hillary should pick up 85. New total delegates will be:

Obama - 1728
Clinton - 1598

Now, lets look at the races ahead, and give Hillary the most favorable outcome:

Guam - 4 (Obama 2 -- Hillary 2)
North Carolina - 115 (Obama 61 -- Hillary 54)
Indiana - 72 (Obama 35 -- Hillary 37)
West Virginia 28 (Obama 11 -- Hillary 17)
Oregon 52 (Obama 28 -- Hillary 24)
Kentucky 51 (Obama 23 -- Hillary 28)
Puerto Rico 55 (Obama 23 -- Hillary 32)
Montana 16 (Obama 9 -- Hillary 7)
South Dakota 15 (Obama 8 -- Hillary 7)

New totals:

Obama - 1928
Clinton - 1806

And this is beyong favorable, considering I don't think she will win Indiana (2 most recent polls showing Obama +5), and I think Obama numbers will be larger in North Carolina (as much as a 18 point spread), and in Oregon (up to an 8 point spread).

Now, those totals also take into account that no more Superdelegates chose a side between now and June. That will leave Obama needing only 87 out of the remaining 300 + superdelegates remaining. That will leave Hillary needing 219 out of the remaining 300 + superdelegates remaining.

Hillary's last rationale to the superdelegates is to win the popular vote, which is an absolute long

[soundfury]

Stop trying to teach math to people who can't even use an abacus. These are the same people picking Hillary for President...sheesh!

[haboob]

how many hillary supporters do you think you picked up with that statement ?

[williamgg]

** I meant to write that she will pick up 12 delegates from Penn, not 8.

[GravitonX]

I won't vote for Hillary even if Obama loses respect for himself and picks her as his VP.

[soundfury]

I won't vote for Hillary even if she turns out to be Mother Teresa and Bill gives up sex!

[mfsomom]

I don't want to vote for Hillary either....but I will if it comes to that in the general. We must come together in spite of ourselves. We simply cannot afford to allow McBush in to the white house. Period.

[johnpherson]

You must vote Clinton, and Clinton supports you must do the same w/ Obama, nose held and all. You DO NOT want McCain to pick 2 maybe 3 SUPREME COURT JUSTICES!!!

[HippieChick]

"McCain to pick 2 maybe 3 SUPREME COURT JUSTICES"

What a nightmare scenario. The thought that the Supreme Court we have now could actually be worse is terribly frightening. I happened to be watching Boston Legal last evening, and very much enjoyed the fantasy scene where James Spader took on the Supreme Court. It's rare for me to cheer from my couch, but Spader's character really let 'em have it in words I would have chosen myself.

[Gruntfuttock]

Are you serious? You and many democrats would vote for a pro war, pro Iran attack candidate because you didn't get your own way? What's the matter with you? I was raised as a child in a war - it isn't pretty. How many of you would switch to McCain if you had been bombed on, shot at, made homeless, removed from your parents to go God knows where? THINK THINK THINK. We don't have enough military to sustain Iraq and these idiots are sabre rattling? This whole country is based on fear and McPain is really good at it. That quiet voice of his makes me shudder - talk about passive/aggressive personality. That temper could land us in precarious situations. Years ago I worked with some vets in a rehab. Some were tortured, some were torturers. None of them would advocate torture as he has. My cousin was on the Death Railroad, River Kwai, and neither would he. Wake up America, if you want a country left to live in.

[williamgg]

Being that Obama will win the pledged delegate race (unless anyone else can think of a scenario in which this is not the case), the only metric left to try and swing superdelegates is the popular vote totals. Let's take a look at where we stand, and make some projections:

Popular Vote Totals (From RealClearPolitics)

Obama - 14,397,506
Clinton - 13,896,368
-----------------------------
Obama +501,138

Projections from remaining races (Using Chuck Todd's very favorable projections for Hillary)

NC (Obama 10 point win)
1,500,000 total votes
Obama - 825,000
Clinton - 675,000

IN (Hillary 2 point win)
900,000 total votes
Obama - 440,000
Clinton - 460,000

WV (Clinton 20 point win)
400,000 total votes
Obama - 160,000
Clinton - 240,000

KY (Clinton 20 point win)
500,000 total votes
Obama - 200,000
Clinton - 300,000

OR (Obama 10 point win)
600,000 total votes
Obama - 330,000
Clinton - 270,000

SD (10 point Obama win)
100,000 total votes
Obama - 55,000
Clinton - 45,000

MT (10 point Obama win)
125,000 total votes
56,250
Obama - 68,750
Clinton - 56,250

Popular vote totals from upcoming contests
Obama - 2,078,750
Clinton - 2,046,250
--------------------------
Obama +32500
Previous Popular vote lead 501,138
New vote lead 530,000 +

Keep in mind, these projections are very favorable for Clinton. You can add in Florida and Obama will have a 200,000 vote lead.

[SkoolOFBarROCK]

20 points? I would say that a bit more than favorable. Anyway it still remains she cannot catch up... She won't even win WV.

[williamgg]

I agree, they are much more than favorable. Being more realistic:

North Carolina could very well end up being an Obama 20 point win.

Indiana - 2 most recent polls have Obama up +5

Montana and South Dakota - Considering how he has done in the region, this could very well end up being 20 point wins for Obama.

[soundfury]

Which again proves that Hillary can't win this, so she'll do either of two things: disparage Obama to the point where he's rendered incapable of securing anything or steal the nomination from the American people by pressuring the superdelegates with some cockamamie story! Either way she steals the nomination. 2000 all over again!

[Lauren1959]

Anyone who supports Clinton and doesn't understand what she's doing to the party needs to sit down with Obama supporters and have a good, frank talk about it. She has come to represent everything I hate about politics. I have never voted for anyone but a Democrat in a presidential race, and I've been voting in them for 40 years. At this point, despite the fact that from a policy standpoint she is not that different from me, I cannot envision ever pulling a lever for her.... She has gone too far and it's killing us and for what?

[NoOona]

I totally understand. I can honestly say, I will not vote for Hillary Clinton. I can not support another stolen election, I will be protesting in the streets if she is the nominee.

Women for Obama08

[mfsomom]

I understand what you are saying. I must have missed the class when they were teaching us girls to band together, no matter what. BUT...we Obama supporters cannot be stubborn and allow McCain to win in the general. Lets be smart and pragmatic, please!!

[HippieChick]

"She has come to represent everything I hate about politics"

I completely agree; for me this transformation has occurred since the Texas primary. Although I cast my vote for her, my vote was for a person other than the one who is in front of the nation now. Hillary has been seduced by the Rovian philosophy that has perfected an illusion that temporarily transforms a sow's ear into a silk purse. However, I didn't consider her a sow's ear until she adopted these recent tactics. After the intense experience of George (let's all clear some brush, have a beer and pray) Bush, it's even more clear to me that the Rovian philosophy is what creates the sow's ear...and the person who embraces that philosophy will never become the promised silk purse.

[lysistrata]

If race is the issue it will not go away just because Hillary steps aside. The Republicans will not just step aside and let Obama get to the head of the line. The Democrats did face the issue before and lost. They did pay the price for civil rights. We did get Nixon.

[StillIRise]

So are you suggesting that Civil Rights was not worth it? Maybe if we begin to fight against the racism that the GOP will use to influence the election, we can once and for all beat them at their own game, rather than to simply give in to their effort to divide us, for the sake of having a smooth victory to the White House.

Still I Rise

[globality]

Just in case

I am starting a web site Obamawriteincandidate.com and obamawritein2008.com. If Hillary steals this we will make sure that Obama's name is certified for write-in in the 50 states. You need the write in name certified for it to count. It seems many people are thinking the same as the names I would of prefer choosing Obamawritein.comm, writeinobama.com, etc) were already taken.

If they steal this from Obama in 2008 we will be back in 2012 (after Mc Cain's 4 years)

If I was Obama and they do steal this I would quit the Dems and either go 3rd party, go corporate and make some reall $$ , or start a fund to do charity work ala Gates ( he can raise money)
The bottom line is the DEMs need him more than he needs them. He is running for president to make a difference in our lives not for his own ego like Hillary.

[NoOona]

I get what you are saying and I totally agree. But if Hillary steals this election, we must protest first. We have to make our voices heard. We can't just simply go to the corner and wait our turn. People across this earth protest against their governments and against corruption, not so much in the US. This is OUR country, we can march, we can protest, we can strike, we can raise hell, and then we can prepare to run again.

Women for Obama08

[graffen48]

I'd like to believe you, but cops are pretty scary in this country now. With so many of our rights stripped away, it is very easy for them to come in and bust up any demonstration, which they have shown already they will do with impunity. This is stuff we should all have been paying more attention to during the so called war on terror. Beware of Homeland security striking out at its own people if enough of us protest!! None of this has been truly tested yet.

[johnpherson]

God forbid we have a thoughtful, intellectual President. The American people get the dopes they deserve, thanks a lot Reaganites you've ruined the "last best hope of the world."

[JerryTheAngel]

Only the shallow media refer to these voters as Reagan Democrats. If Blue collar workers between the ages of 45 and 65 are Reagan Democrats, then since Reagan was elected almost 30 years ago, 3/4 of them are dead by now.