Youth Vote Shifts Dramatically Towards Democrats

Pew Research reports:

Trends in the opinions of America's youngest voters are often a barometer of shifting political winds. And that appears to be the case in 2008. The current generation of young voters, who came of age during the George W. Bush years, is leading the way in giving the Democrats a wide advantage in party identification, just as the previous generation of young people who grew up in the Reagan years -- Generation X -- fueled the Republican surge of the mid-1990's.

In surveys conducted between October 2007 and March 2008, 58% of voters under age 30 identified or leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared with 33% who identified or leaned toward the GOP. The Democratic Party's current lead in party identification among young voters has more than doubled since the 2004 campaign, from 11 points to 25 points.

In fact, the Democrats' advantage among the young is now so broad-based that younger men as well as younger women favor the Democrats over the GOP -- making their age category the only one in the electorate in which men are significantly more inclined to self-identify as Democrats rather than as Republicans.

Ezra Klein notes:

Political scientists argue that the more often someone votes for a party, the more that preference gets locked in. Each vote marginally increases your personal identification with the party you pulled the lever for. Three election cycles, and you're probably a partisan for life, or something near to it. Which means an advantage like this, though potentially temporary, also opens the door to a more enduring electoral edge with this generation.

Comments

[Gary47]

It's about time. But I won't be impressed until they show up in droves to vote Democrat in November. May their enthusiasm carry them all the way through.

[pureproductofamerica]

In one of his few insightful moments, David Brooks wrote an article on young voters called Children of Polarization http://select.nytimes.com/2007/02/04/opinion/04brooks.html?_r=1&oref=sloginn).

His conclusion? The next generation isn't married to one party or the other, but things look very bad for Republicans. Why? Young people a sturdy belief in science and research, a distaste for ideology, and admiration for pragmatic "doers." While Dems don't have a monopoly on these things (and certainly have an ideological element in the party), Republicans have come to represent the opposite of all these values, particularly over the past decade.

This explains why Obama is so appealing to young voters. When he says, "Republicans could very easily have a better idea on something," he's not just trying to sound kumbaya and lovey-dovey. He knows that he is appealing to the values of an entire generation, for whom blind partisanship and ideology are little more than fodder for late night comedy.

[hoopesaz]

It wont last. Many very conservative repbulicans are moving towards key issues that the democrats win big on, like the environment and renewable energy. Once the mouthpiece of the party catches up with the reality of the party the numbers will even out again.

Consider that most "youth" are in college and are bombarded by college professors who tend to be more liberal than not. And consider that college students on average don't make much money, so other key issues that would drive them to republican candidates aren't even a consideration in college.

So, whether the tide is changing or not remains to be seen.

[NorCalNative]

As a Democrat way past the age of 29 I can still appreciate the trend. However, I'd like to address the wisdom of three elections cycles equals partisanship for life. I have a little knowledge of the Constitution. I have the National Archives bookmarked so I can refer to it frequently. As much as I support Dems with my votes I am not happy that they chose to look the other way regarding impeachment. If ever there was an administration that needed impeached it is the current one.

As a Democratic supporter how to I reconcile my Party's indifference to the role of IMPEACHMENT?

Unless they IMPEACH or take back the executive privileges of the President they're just as bad as the Republicans. The point is the party can't just ignore this remedy and expect us to act like their still our heroes. Because I'm telling you in my eyes the party I support has no testicles and is worthless. It is dfficult to STAY partisan when Democrats pretend they don't understand the NEED and the value of IMPEACHMENT.

Let's fact it, under this administration we have no Congress. If we have no Congress we have a freakin MONARCHY. And, we have the Democrats to thank. So, yeah, I've supported them for more than three cycles but they can't continue to count on that unless THEY CHANGE!

[ebaLnoloM]

Too bad the same demographic shifting toward the Democratic party also are the ones who don't show up to the polling booths, which is why liberal media is in a frenzy pushing Obama and Clinton down our throats.

"Citizens age 65 and older had the highest registration rate (79 percent) while those age 18 to 24 had the lowest (58 percent). The youngest group also had the lowest voting rate (47 percent), while those age 45 and older had the highest turnout (about 70 percent). (See Table 1. [Excel])"

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/voting/004986.html

McCain '08

[indieminded]

Your census link is from 2005. The above survey is from the last 6 months. Times are a' changin'.

[ebaLnoloM]

So you're equating survey demographics to actual voters? That's very presuptuous of you, or a bad case of wishful thinking......

[Zogtastic]

For many in that demographic it's their first time voting and they'll be in college when the election rolls around. There's a lot to distract them and very few have access to televisions or watch the news even if they do. College cuts people off from the real world... seriously lol. 65 and older are typically retired and therefore aren't working or doing schoolwork on election day.

Being a college student myself, I'll be working to make sure people at my school vote. So don't you worry! We're fixing that for you!

[ebaLnoloM]

Having gone to college I can appreciate your argument, but it's not an excuse. "I just don't have the time to vote" is one of the weakest arguments for not voting I can think of. Especially when you're in college. Unless you're pre-med or something, there is PLENTY of downtime to find the 5 minutes it takes to vote.

Regardless of your political affilitation (assuming you are a Democrat) I commend your willingness to expose others to the importance of voting. Democrat or Rebublican, or whatever your stance is regarding a particular political issue, the most important thing to realize is that IT IS A RIGHT for which many have died. That above all should be the motivator to get your a** out to the polling booths.

[Nobuks]

The biggest reason there has been such a low turn out, the reason why close to 40 % choose to note vote is apathy. Why vote, when you're just going to get the same thing, just with a different label. Older voters prefer that. To them, change is uncomfortable for they have spent a large portion of their lives getting their world just to their liking. Stagnant. That's changing though. Now the youth and undecided are starting to notice that some politicians are not practicing politics as usual, that these politicians are starting to see a bigger picture, and larger issues that will only be solved by working together. Obama has brought out a lot of these voters for the Democrats. If the Republicans had their equivalent, the polls would be reflecting that. They don't. Only once this whole exercise is over will we be able to see to a greater extent how large the dissatisfaction was. I think that a lot of people will be shocked at the results.

[CJGibson]

Nice excel chart.

No one could be bothered to spring for something that wasn't ridiculously ugly?

[VisiteDeVoltaire]

Perhaps you should write or call the Pew Research Center and let them know your feelings, it's their graphic.

[McLaren]

Thank goodness the youth vote is generally meaningless. When I was young I was a confused liberal. Sorry for being redundent.

[iPolitics]

The youth vote went for Gore and Kerry. It appears that the ignorant are the "experienced" voters.

[idtfjmk]

You are so right! There should be an advert saying we have choosen the better candidate, Gore and Kerry but got Bush and Bush.
Let us change the change and the older people follow the young people because they are the leaders of tomorrow.

[NewMexicoForObama]

And now you are a brainwashed conservative? Sorry for being redundant. (proper spelling!)

[poco767]

Phew, and I thought that young people who were engaged with politics were more likely to be well informed. Thank you for setting me straight and reminding everyone that if you are under 25 you just don't count. Why would young people distance themselves from a party which obviously values them as highly as the republicans do?

[liberalghost]

Are you posting from Iraq?

[iPolitics]

Barack Obama.

[NC4Obama]

indeed

[idtfjmk]

Exactly. Obama has excited alot of people.