Poll: Clinton Beats McCain In Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio

Quinnipiac:

Winning among white working class voters, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds strong leads over Arizona Sen. John McCain - and runs much better than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama - in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to three simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today. If Sen. Obama is the Democratic nominee, he's in a tight race with McCain in Florida and Ohio, but takes Pennsylvania.

This is Sen. Clinton's strongest overall performance since the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University began special surveys two years ago in the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College. This latest survey finds:

Read the whole story: Quinnipiac

Comments

[ntmessage]

EC arithmetic. Hillary runs strongest in new swing states like OH,PA,NJ,A­K,TN,FL,KY­andWV (113EVs/270). Obama may bring in CO and IA (16EVs/270). Clinton has a Political advantage over Obama in FL/MI representing 16% of EC. This has not changed for MONTHS and Obama has spent almost a quarter of a BILLION dollars.

Content over style. Clinton performs and delivers. Obama simply could never equal the depth of Clinton when dealing with people already predisposed to their positions.

Just as the debates, she was straightforward with FOX and the longer the interview went on the better she looked. Mano a mano, you just see the excellence in Clinton. She must be the type of person you would want as President. No one can mess with her; she knows all the details and will not make stupid or rookie mistakes in the White House.

Scripted Obama turns mealy mouth in debates and takes forever to answer even the simplest question. His unending numbers of surrogates then scramble to correct his statements, often with absurd rationalizations. He is just not quick on his feet, which would be fine in any other job.

So very many issues and problems come up every day as President the country simply cannot afford on the job training for Obama, whether it is foreign policy, the economy, health care or defense. The list goes on.

What in the heck are we thinking that Obama is even a shadow of Clinton.

[Justtellthetruth]

refresher course;

1) she voted for and supported the war in Iraq

2) She virtually campaigned for the war against Lebanon, even after it was clear that it, like Iraq, was a pointless bloodbath

3) She has worked hard to start a war with Iran, calling them the greatest threat that the US and israel face, voting for kyl lieberman, and now claiming that she would "completely Obliterate them" .

4) her botched attempt at health care reform as first lady was so politically inept and so poorly planned that it offended the vast majority of members of both parties, and set back health care reform for decades, denying 100s of millions of americans affordable and available health care.

5) She is DESPISED by the majority of the people of this nation. She is not likable or trustworthy in most peoples eyes, nor is she considered competent.

[AdamX]

Neocons want her to win. It is their only chance.

[Justtellthetruth]

Does she have the power to completely obliterate the US as well if we don't give in to her looney demands, such as allowing her to be President even when most people in this country literally can't even stand the sight of her?

[V4Vigilance]

Hey, if the nomination were decided by opinion polls we wouldn't have to deal with any of this messy "voting" and "delegate" crap! We all know how precisely polls predict the future. They're immune to manipulation and every one of them yields the same results, right?

Oh yeah, and the BCS is the best way to determine NCAA Div. I football national champion.

/snark off

Nothing to see here folks. Just another steaming pile of Clintonista "I'm losing but you should crown me the nominee anyway" BS.

OBAMA 08

[Kantinflas]

-- This year, the so-called "battleground" states which could go either way in the general election appear to be: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI. A total of 159 electoral votes.
-- RealClearPolitics (Election 2008 Latest Polls) lists head-to-head matchups, McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama, for all the battleground states. Aggregately, the most recent state polls for each pair of match-ups through May 1 indicate Clinton would lose to McCain by 3 electoral votes overall. Obama would lose by 59.

[mntnguy]

Everyone! Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!! I can not believe this is being hidden so well by the media and Clinton supporters claim she has a chance of winning once she is convicted in this case that she is apparently guilty of along with Gov Ed Randell and Former Pres Clinton. This will all be over soon! I know the superdelegates are watching this!

P.S. all Obama supporter should start talking about this in every post maybe the media will get the idea ! let the truth be told!

Go Obama 08 Yes We Can!!!!

[Bill3rdterm]

mntnguy, you do realize that this story has been investigated over a year ago. The reason the MSM is not covering it, is because they know there is no THERE there. It's a civil case, that doesn't have legs. Go to fact checker and do some homework outside of the conspiracy sites.

[ropadopa]

Did you figure these to be the battle-ground states all by yourself or did someone suggest them to you? Don't forget that if this was the Republican Nomination Hillary would be winning too. And further if it was only by ballot and not caucus in some states she would be winning too. Oh! I forgot if Michigan and Florida had voted she would also be leading. And if we were in Cuba where the party's leadership puts one person and it was a yeah or nay vote she would be that person and she would be willing too. Never in my life have I seen so many hypotheticals, spins and permutations. The rules under which the candidates entered the race was determined at the outset. All parties agreed to them. This is still a democracy and we play by the rules.

[ntmessage]

We predicted the same months ago with a behavior based model and Kantinflas is largely accurate regarding battleground states so who cares where it comes from if it is accurate?
You can check my old posts.

In fact, our model now has distance growing between Clinton and McCain while Obama is going the other way. Obama peaked on Super Tuesday and has been trending down ever since, presumable as people get to know him better, confirming another one of our predictions that Clinton negatives are built in and would have little affect on whether people would vote for her while Obamas negatives can only grow worse.

There is not a prediction yet that Clinton definitely wins over McCain, BUT she runs much stronger than Obama, who is clearly the weaker candidate based upon empirical analysis and not wishful thinking. Or Hope for that matter (sorry couldnt resist).

Today we have Clinton with over 300 EVs against McCain while McCain already has more than 270 against Obama. 270 clinches the next President of the United States.

[Soundofthunder]

The reason she "polls" better in those states is because the choice is between her and Obama vs. McCain. When it down to JUST Obama vs. McCain, Obama will have the lead in all three states. The poll we should be looking at is the national poll at asked who would vote for in a race between Democrat (Obama or Hillary) vs. Republican (McCain):

51% Democratic
33% Republican
16% Undecided

It's reasonable to assume that the undecided vote will be split more or less between the two. But to be nice to McCain, I'll give him 70% of it. That's 44.2 for McCain, 55.8 for Obama/Hillary, or what I like to call a LANDSLIDE for the Democrats.

The numbers don't lie. Americans are SICK of Republican rule. Like a battered wife, they finally get it: the GOP doesn't love or respect you, it wants you to suffer.

SOT

[Bill3rdterm]

Wow nice spin job. They are not polled as having to choice between OBama or HRC against McCain. The polls are done HRC vs. McCain and BO vs. McCain.

[NewMexicoForObama]

Anyone who blindly follows a liar is considered a chump. Are you a chump?

[AbbieXHoffman]

Guys this is pretty compelling reason for Hillary to get the nomination. But let's exand the reasoning beyond these states. If you want to see how both candidates do in GE of all the states based on electoral votes (not just pop vote), the math is available. Check this out. I like Obama and if the democrats are okay with a risk, then I say put him in. If they are not, I understand their reasoning why they would choose Clinton.

Clinton 291 McCain 247
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May01.html

Obama 243 McCain 269 Ties 26
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May01.html

[FrankBlackFrancis]

I don't find it compelling because it fails to take into account important factors.
1.if Hillary gains the nomination these numbers will decline. There will be a perception it was stolen, it will alienate many new Democrats that won't come out in November.
2. Hillary hasn't been attacked by the right wing machine yet. She's actually been embraced by it because they desire to run against her.
3.Obama will be much more effective when Hillary stops attacking him and he can focus on McCain.

Obama won the pledged delgate count, if he's not th nominee there is no way the party will recover in time. I'll vote for her, but many other Obama supporters probably won't. I know the opposite is also true but I believe Obama will be able to overcome that.

[AbbieXHoffman]

1. These numbers are based on poll of people would actually vote.
2. I disagree--Hillary has been vetted more than any other candidate running.
3. The repubs will be much more brutal on Obama than Hillary be assured. And Hillary has been benign compared to historical other primaries (bar the Kerry failure). JFK was the most ruthless primary campaigner. He was just BRUTAL. Obama will have more to fight against to McCain, so he won't be more effective. He'll likely be less effective or the same as he is now.

If they give the nod to Hillary, the party will recover in time. It always happens. JFK and Johnson kissed and made up and went right into the Whitehouse.

[oldrwsr]

It is much too early to be taking General Election polls. Alot can happen in 6 months.

[mntnguy]

Everyone! Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!! I can not believe this is being hidden so well by the media and Clinton supporters claim she has a chance of winning once she is convicted in this case that she is apparently guilty of along with Gov Ed Randell and Former Pres Clinton. This will all be over soon! I know the superdelegates are watching this!

P.S. all Obama supporter should start talking about this in every post maybe the media will get the idea ! let the truth be told!

Go Obama 08 Yes We Can!!!!

[Bill3rdterm]

Can we get a Mod. to ban this idiot mntnguy. IT's one thing to want to talk about the bogus paul vs clinton story, but to continue to copy and paste the same thing 15 times in every thread is doing nothing but cluttering the board. Dude chill already you look like an idiot.

[austinobserver]

It's all a bad joke. If Hillary gets the nomination, the corporate media will pivot and begin 24/7 bashing of her based on allegations of and speculation of marital infidelities and financial improprieties of her and her husband. There is no way on earth she would carry Florida, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, even if McCain announced beforehand he intended to cause a depression and WWIII. She would be lucky to carry Massachusetts and New York as McCain would win a landslide victory of historic proportions. Then he probably does start WWIII and the members of the corporate media will be among the most surprised dead people in our completely "obliterated" nation.

[Bill3rdterm]

Yeah there allegations worked so well in the 90's. Bill walked with a 67% approval rating. Also, they can't touch the infidelaty, considering she wasn't the one cheating and she's the nominee, not too mention that script can be flipped on McCain. He cheated on his first wife for years, and left the sick woman for Cindy. Financial Improprieties, LOL, Keatings 5, not too mention more. His ammo is worthless against HRC. And unlike Obama, she wouldn't hesitate to go after him if he dared go for a low blow...

[Vantunow]

I am glad he is improving in Swing States Matchup despite Pastorgate.

Some of the Indiana polls are completely ridiculous. In Pennsylvania which is taylor made state for Hillary, despite Elitist-Gate and Wright-Gate and Bowling-Gate, she only managed 9.6% win.

Here in Indiana, where Obama has neighborhood-card going for him, and only a week ago he was up as high as 5% in some polls, all of a sudden he is down by 10%? 15% of the voters changed their mind based on insane rantings of Jeremiah Wright?

I can't imagine those numbers would hold up on Election day. If in State like Pennsylvania where she even claimed it to be her home-state, she couldn't win by 10%, its ridiculous to suggest in Indiana she would be able to win in double digits.

[flyguy14222]

NC is Obama's PA. Where did HIS 25pt lead go?

[rmetz74]

So you predict he'll win NC by at least 9 points?

[mntnguy]

Everyone! Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!! I can not believe this is being hidden so well by the media and Clinton supporters claim she has a chance of winning once she is convicted in this case that she is apparently guilty of along with Gov Ed Randell and Former Pres Clinton. This will all be over soon! I know the superdelegates are watching this!

P.S. all Obama supporter should start talking about this in every post maybe the media will get the idea ! let the truth be told!

Go Obama 08 Yes We Can!!!!

[Mygirl]

I am sick of Hillary's stupid math.

[sydney01]

What about these swing states that will go red for Hillary, Blue for Obama:

Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconson, Virgina?????

Obama won with over 75% of the vote in Colorado!

[CraigMM]

Colorado, Iowa, MN and Wisconsin are not Red States and HRC will likely win those states.

VA is a clear red state, but there are not enough Dems to make up for the voters Obama has pushed away with his bitter/cli­nging/Wrig­ht gaffes.

Think of it like this...tak­e Utah. Obama won by a huge margin in the primary, but there are 5 times as many Republican voters in the state. There is just no way for a Dem to carry Utah in the GE. Also, most of the states that people list as possibilities for Obama are too small to make up for losing PA, OH, Florida, NY, NJ or MA. Even one of those states would require Obama to pick up at least 2, if not 3 other states to make up the difference. The electoral roadmap in the GE strongly favors HRC because she can deliver PA, OH and Florida. if she does that, she can even lose another state or two and still win the GE.

[FrankBlackFrancis]

There is no way Colorado will vote for Hillary. She is detested int hese parts.

[mntnguy]

Everyone! Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!! I can not believe this is being hidden so well by the media and Clinton supporters claim she has a chance of winning once she is convicted in this case that she is apparently guilty of along with Gov Ed Randell and Former Pres Clinton. This will all be over soon! I know the superdelegates are watching this!

P.S. all Obama supporter should start talking about this in every post maybe the media will get the idea ! let the truth be told!

Go Obama 08 Yes We Can!!!!

[Hillbug]

Actually..­..

In Colorado, according to the most recent poll I could find, Obama leads by 3. Hillary, on the other hand, loses by 14. I think both of them can win Iowa, and Minnesota too...but again, looking at the most recent poll, while Obama leads by double digits in MN, Hillary only leads by 5. Wisconsin, I believe, will be similar: Obama will carry the state, but HIllary will be unable to. Those are swing states, albeit smaller ones (compared to PA, FL, and OH), but HRC will NOT win all of those states.

VA, I think has a CHANCE at being in play if Obama is the nom, but I think, to be honest, he'll lose it in the general. One thing though: Obama is starting a 50-state voter registration program. Many more Dems will vote this election..­.again, if Obama is the nom.

Moving on, the states you mention: PA, OH, FL, NY, NJ and MA. Obama is leading McCain in PA, NY (come on; you REALLY think he'll lose NY?), NJ AND MA. OH and FL, yes, he's doing pretty bad...but I really think that once people become more acquainted with McCain's policies, you'll see him doing a LOT better. With Clinton, this could be the case as well...kee­p in mind, however, that if the supers give her the nom, it WILL be perceived to have been stolen and, then, I think, she will DEFNITELY NOT win the GE.

[going2ireland]

OK, let's do a little math here.

The total population of USA is 365,986,357

The combined population of PA, OH and FL is 42,150,952

That leaves 323,835,405 in population.

So, Clinton beats McCain in Fla, PA and OH. What about the remaining 323,835,405?

What - is the Quinnipiac polls for Hillary and will only consider those three states? What about the remaining 47 + Territories and DC? OK, so then let me ask it differently - what about the remaining 39 states + Territories that have already held their primaries/caucuses?

You can't just select those states that are a known given for Hillary and base that as the argument that Hillary can beat McCain in the GE.

[NCMan]

elections are decided by electoral college results, not by population numbers which in your case includes children under the age of 18 who can't vote. Try the math this way

FL - 27
PA - 21
OH - 20

Total of 68 electoral votes. 270 votes needed to win

Those three states are 25% ofthe total votes needed to win.

[CraigMM]

There are numerous groups that do GE polls with every state and the person who consitently beats McCain is HRC. Obama cannot win some of the states that he must carry to get the right # of electoral votes. HRC delivers in the states that get the win. That is the core of the electability argument and the MSM and blogs don't want to talk about it because it doesn't favor Obama.

HRC is the more electable Dem and that is all the SD's will care about.

[Hillbug]

That's not true.

She does better is some states, obviously, but consistently beating McCain? Come on. Obama puts MORE states into play, and will get MORE Dems in the process with his 50-state -- that's right, 50 STATES, not 10-state or blue-state or big-state -- voter registration program.

Also keep in mind another thing: electable? If you consider the person with the highest negatives, who most people in the US see as untrustworthy and dishonest, the most electable Dem, then kudos to you. The reason, I think, these polls are the way they are is one thing: we are in the middle of a heated primary process. Many people on BOTH sides claim "oh, I'll never vote for the other guy" but you know that once we have a nom, a good majority of those people will, in fact, change their minds. Then, I think, we'll see some VERY different polls.

That being said, there's a bigger problem with the SDs giving the nom to Hillary: she's, you know, LOSING. If the SDs give it to the person who LOST, then it will be widely perceived to have been STOLEN and millions of Obama supporters will NOT support Hillary. I say this often, because it's truth: if Hillary is perceived to have stolen the nom, she will lose the general, and we won't see a Dem in the White House for a VERY long time.

[apoyo]

This poll means Hillary will lose the election by only winning PA, OH, and FL.

[NCMan]

New poll. Now only 51% believe Obama will get the Dem Nomination. Down from 69% a month ago

New Gallup Poll, Clinton leads Obama now by 4%. 10 days agoa Obama was up by 10%. 14 point slide away from Obama in 10 days

Clinton still performs better against McCain than Obama does

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080501/pl_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc;_ylt=AjG.oU9bfe1zW.YBFjoJtnAXr7sF

[KillTheMessenger]

That just shows how misinformed people are. Obama has won and they think he has less of a chance of winning. What can I say... polls suck? Because the people they ask don't know any better.

[jimi945]

Let's see how her BALLS react to this:

http://www.paulvclinton.com/060817_second_amended_complaint.swf

[jlb1234567]

Gallup Daily: Clinton 49%, Obama 45%... Hillary up by 4% vs. McCain... McCain vs. Obama is tied. Obama = unelectable.

[austinobserver]

Hillaryous! The Republicans haven't even started on Hilliary. When they are finished with her, she will be lucky to be polling in the 30s. Hilliarinistas are hillaryous.

[NoSpinTruthZone]

I'm amazed at your ignorance. I have some very conservative republican friends and I have been receiving anti-Hillary propaganda for well over two years.
The republicans have been fearing Clinton since 2004, and have been working on her since then.
Nice try though.... not!

[drzoon]

nobody is even running against Mc Cain yet. certainly not Hilary. so how in the world can anyone know who beats who when?

once again.. you will never go broke counting on doing business by counting on how stupid americans can be.... or ... actually .... how stupid they actually are!

[Nancyann]

If the American People are so stupid as to vote for Hilary, The Dragon Lady, then they deserve what they get. That is more scandal, enemies list, lying to the American people, narcisism the nth degree, having to look at her in those pants daily and having your pocket picked empty and more.... bad news!!!!

[drzoon]

exactly...

paging Judge Star! paging Judge Star?

They're Back!

[going2ireland]

I completely forgot about Kenneth Starr.

You can bet he will come out of retirement to make sure the Clintons don't get back into the White house!!