Clinton Camp: Obama Document Predicted Indiana Victory, Does That Still Stand?

Back in February, the Obama camp mistakenly released a spreadsheet detailing their anticipated margins of victory (and defeat) in all upcoming primaries. With only days to go until Indiana, the Clinton camp is publicly musing whether Obama stands by his projection to win Indiana by seven points. The memo is below.

Meanwhile, the latest well-known Obama superdelegate isn't trying to tamp down expectations:

WALLACE: Let's -we've got about a minute left, we've got about a minute left, gentlemen, so let me ask you for some final predictions. What are we going to see Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina? Mr. Andrew, you start.

ANDREW: Tough races. Barack Obama is going to win. I think --

WALLACE: You think he's going to win both? You think he's going to win both, Mr. Andrew?

ANDREW: I think he's going to win both.

[WATCH]

To: Interested Parties

From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: May 3, 2008
RE: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?

Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.

Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?

It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations - a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana's primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.

The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million -- $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.

Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.

In North Carolina, Tuesday's other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m -- $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.

The Clinton campaign is closing on the big challenges and questions facing American families - who is on your side and who is best able to fight for working and middle class people on Day One in the White House?

Comments

[northcan]

Daisy1111; Voter's rights violation's in NC linked to WVWV and seems to be directed to a contact for Lesbian and Gay transgender children. Do I have this right? I talked to an official last week in NC and she said it was D.C. based phonecall from / and run by John Podesta, but I should check with her again. It was in a black community....the robo calls stated they had not registered and changed dates and times. Black community would be Obama's win, most likely...so a Clinton operative again. Every state so far has been affected against Obama. Why do you think? Does this tell the world she's not a strong candidate? You betcha......Superdelegate's decide soon please.

[hinnis]

GOP Gleeful at Obama rocky period

By LIZ SIDOTI "

WASHINGTON (AP) " Republicans can hardly contain their glee as they watch Barack Obama battle through a rocky period. And why should they?

Nothing else is breaking the GOP's way this year. But, at least now, the Democrats' political phenom is tarnished, and, if he defeats Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic nomination, he will enter the general election campaign not only bruised and battered " but also carrying baggage as he faces Republican John McCain.

"We've had a rough couple of weeks. I won't deny that," Obama said Friday.

The Illinois senator has repeatedly had to address " and repudiate " the ranting of his bombastic former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Obama has continued facing questions about his relationship with indicted Chicago businessman Antoin "Tony" Rezko. The candidate's patriotism has been questioned. So has his readiness.

On the eve of a critical Pennsylvania primary, Obama caught flak for claiming that small-town folks are bitter and thus cling to guns and religion. Then he turned in a lackluster debate performance. He ended up losing that primary to Clinton in part because he didn't attract enough white, working-class voters.

Now he finds himself in the midst of competitive contests in two more states. Losses Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina would further weaken him. Even if he manages to hold off Clinton in those and the final primary contests, Obama would essentially limp to the nomination.

[colbertnationfan]

Over and over I have the same thought: "Wouldn't it be neat if all of the people who so hate Hillary Clinton could use their hatred for something real & meaningful? Like where were they all the last 2 years in trying to impeach Bush & especially, Cheney?!!" Cheney is so much more DESERVING of all this hatred, imho....

Oh well, don't listen to me, I'm just a lifelong Democrat who knocked on a lot of doors the last 2 elections & watched things go down in smoke to Bush. A living nightmare for the last 8 years. Instead you can read the following, about a poll taken today, & think about it. And please, think about how we don't want a Republican in the White House.Night-night.

Attention, superdelegates: "The survey suggested that Mr. Obama, of Illinois, had lost much or all of the once-commanding lead he had held over Mrs. Clinton, of New York, among Democratic voters on the question of which of them would be the strongest candidate against [Sen. John] McCain, of Arizona."

Much different (and, for Obama, more worrisome) results from the USA Today/Gallup Poll: In the space of two weeks, Obama went from up 10 to down seven. "Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability," Susan Page writes in USA Today.

[citizenofmars]

Hillary is EIGHT BELLES...

[whiteboyblues]

God let us hope, so we don't have to endure more weeks of her garbage

[Daisy1111]

Something strange happening with ballots in North Carolina:

http://bluenc.com/well%2C-heres-something-interesting...

[indieminded]

great link Daisy. If you scroll to the bottom of the page, click on the last article link titled "NC NAACP files formal voter-supression complaint against Women's Voices (WVWV) Alerts US DOJ"
Click on the title because the article has a lovely chart of all the WVWV heavy-hitters and their links to candidates. The ties to the Clintons are astounding. Talk about something strange happening....

[TurnThePageGA]

Hillary does your statement that this will be over on February 5th still stand?

[whiteboyblues]

Easy answer for Mrs. Clinton... Peoples are sheeples.

[rich3324]

Clinton's super pandering and the American peoples fear of facts have helped her in the last few weeks.

[Bobleblah1]

As someone from the midwest, I doubt that Indiana would have ever been a win for Obama.
Indiana is a highly ignorant state, with a large number of rednecks.
The midwest is lagging behind the rest of the country with regards to progressive thought
about racial harmony. This is why many African Americans are leaving the midwest.
Its weird but the midwest is starting to be viewed as a pretty racist place by folks whove lived it.
I moved from Chicago for that very reason. Its funny, many of my friends from the midwest who have left,
joke about Obama winning Indiana. It would be like Lou Dobbs becoming governor of California.

If your a betting man, count on Obama losing Indiana by 5 to 7 points

[hinnis]

Yeah, Rev. Wright was right. White people are just a bunch of racists, especially those in Indiana. In fact, all white people who do not vote for Obama are racists. There, did I do OK? Can I be an Obama follower, now?

[whiteboyblues]

clueless

[globality]

The Clintons are the most responsible people (besided the perpetrators) for the 911 attacks on the World Trade Center

George Bush (as much as I hate hime) was only in office 9 months before the terrorist struck the United States Of America.



On February 26, 1993terrorists attacked the World Trade Center during the Clinton administration. . Bill Clinton never visited the World Trade Center sight after

On March 8, 1995, two U.S. diplomats are killed in Karachi, Pakistan. Bill Clinton had no response to the attacks.

On June 25, 1996 a fuel truck explodes outside the United States military's Khobar Towers building, killing 19 military personnel and wounding 515.

On November 12, 1997 four U.S. businessmen are killed in Karachi, Pakistan by members of the Islamic Revolutionary Council. President Clinton had no response to the attacks.

On August 7, 1998, in near simultaneous explosions at U.S. Embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, Al Qaeda terrorists kill 291 and wound 5,000 in Kenya and kill 10 and wound 77 in Tanzania .

On December 4, 1998, Bill Clinton received a Presidential Daily Briefing entitled, "Bin Laden Preparing to Hijack US Aircraft and Other Attacks".
This was almost 3 years before the 9-11 attacks.

On October 12, 2000 The U.S.S. Cole, a destroyer in the United States Navy, is rammed by a boat full of explosives in the harbor of Aden, Yemen. 17 sailors are killed and 39 more are injured.

[hinnis]

Yeah, there was a guy killed in my neighborhood a couple of months ago. I think Hillary did that, too.

[northeast73]

And you say its HRC supporter that have turned into republicans.....you get your "talking points" from Dick Morris.com??

[PrdAmerican]

Don't suppose this document came from a stolen laptop do you....

[apcalc]

What you folks don't see is that Obama is falling, and he can't get up.

Even if he manages to hold on to the nomination, he's toast in the fall.

[apcalc]

Prepare yourselves Obamabots - he is tanking in the polls.

[whiteboyblues]

ZOMG!!!

[sistapolitica]

Not hardly my friend.

Election 2008 Latest Polls

Monday, May 05
Race Poll Results Spread
Democratic Presidential Nomination CBS News/NY Times Obama 50, Clinton 38 Obama +12.0
General Election: McCain vs. Clinton CBS News/NY Times Clinton 53, McCain 41 Clinton +12.0
General Election: McCain vs. Obama CBS News/NY Times Obama 51, McCain 40 Obama +11.0

[TAHARQA]

clintons need to get off get of the petty bullshit.

[NoLove4HillaryAnymore]

Don't be surprised any more...she has proven that she is a fractious politics of the past!

[ClydetheCat]

I agree, but it's all they have left.