Clinton Camp: Obama Document Predicted Indiana Victory, Does That Still Stand?

Back in February, the Obama camp mistakenly released a spreadsheet detailing their anticipated margins of victory (and defeat) in all upcoming primaries. With only days to go until Indiana, the Clinton camp is publicly musing whether Obama stands by his projection to win Indiana by seven points. The memo is below.

Meanwhile, the latest well-known Obama superdelegate isn't trying to tamp down expectations:

WALLACE: Let's -we've got about a minute left, we've got about a minute left, gentlemen, so let me ask you for some final predictions. What are we going to see Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina? Mr. Andrew, you start.

ANDREW: Tough races. Barack Obama is going to win. I think --

WALLACE: You think he's going to win both? You think he's going to win both, Mr. Andrew?

ANDREW: I think he's going to win both.

[WATCH]

To: Interested Parties

From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: May 3, 2008
RE: Why Did the Obama Campaign Predict Victory in Indiana? Does That Prediction Still Stand?

Story continues below

Three months ago the Obama campaign produced a spreadsheet that, with one exception, has accurately predicted the winners in each of the upcoming primaries and caucuses.

Tellingly, that spreadsheet predicted an Obama victory in Indiana by 7 points, as well as an Obama victory in North Carolina.

Does the Obama campaign still stand by that prediction? If not, why not, and what has happened?

It is easy to see why the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana. Senator Obama has won each of the primaries in the states that border Illinois - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri, and 25% of Hoosiers get their television from Illinois stations - a huge advantage for Senator Obama. Indiana's primary is open, and Senator Obama has tended to do better in those contests.

The Obama campaign has also dramatically outspent Senator Clinton in Indiana by more than $2.4 million -- $5.6m - $3.2m and has even gone up on broadcast television in the very expensive Chicago media market.

Despite Senator Obama's advantages and his prediction of victory, we have worked hard in Indiana to do as well as we can and anticipate a close finish.

In North Carolina, Tuesday's other contest, Senator Obama enjoyed a lead of over 20 points in public polls throughout this year and outspent us there on TV by $1.3m -- $4.9 - $3.5. Senator Clinton has been working hard to narrow that 20 point gap.

The Clinton campaign is closing on the big challenges and questions facing American families - who is on your side and who is best able to fight for working and middle class people on Day One in the White House?

Comments

[whizkid]

Is Bonnie prince Barry growing a stash and soul patch?
Seemed like it at Indy tonite.

[Smartey]

I work for the Hillary campaign in Indiana, and we are working hard to crush Mr. Obama on his scandals with the crazy preacher and the mad 60's bomber. Everyday, while canvassing, we bring up his dirty laundry and, when asked about the bumps in the Clinton road, can easily steer the conversation back to Obama and his pals. This shows us that Hillary and Bill's scandals have all but faded out -- Hillary calls it "being fully vetted" -- and that we can make mincemeat out of Mr. Obama with the loons he's been caught with. We feel this is going to push us to victory. Keep your fingers crossed.

And get ready! Yo mama, Obama! We're calling you out!

Hillary '08!!!

[Charmed]

You should be soooo proud of yourself. Keep up the good work of being as negative as you can get, this is excately what we need in America. Lies, deception and anything to win. Our kids are learning from the best and taking notes.....

Obama08!

[NoLove4HillaryAnymore]

Its all about winning ha?? Boy, bird of the same feather flock together. What do you expect when you are a paid Hillary staffer...you become like her. Winning by smearing is not winning. It is cheating. I was in Indiana over the weekend canvasing too...there are lots of folks who are interested in Obama who really wanted to know more about the truth from the lies. After we spoke with them when they were on the fence and after they learned the truth about Obama, they were glad to have opened their door.

See...the difference is we don't have to trash Clinton to win the people's vote. We just tell the truth.

For your http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/RANCHO/POLITICS/FOSTER_COVERUP/foster.htmlUP/foster.html

[erteel]

Seriously? If your are really a Clinton campaigner, that is disgusting!

[OrionGal]

That is called ELECTORAL FRAUD -


DNC? Anyone here like to call?

[janeadams]

That really is disgusting. Thanks so much for helping the democratic party.

[windyindie41]

The bottom line is, if Obama's campaign was pedaling the same tired crap that Hillary's campaign has been throwing out since Iowa, Obama supporters would cease to back him. Then again, if Obama was in Hillary's position, he would have had the sense to get out of the race months ago. Then, he most likely would have gotten the VP nod, and Hillary would CRUISE to an easy victory in November.

But that is not how reality played out, and all us Obama supporters watched in awe and wonder as our "third place candidate" CRUSHED all competition for the first few months of the year. And if it wasn't for Hillary, the right, and the MSM pathetically dragging Rev. Wright, flag pins, and a dozen other Obama non-controversies into the election, HIllary would be even further behind then she is now. During this time, Obama supporters would have gladly voted for Hillary had she been the front runner, because we understand that someone has to win, and someone has to lose, even if it's 50.5% to 49.5%, that's just how things are. But because of HIllary's (and her supporters) breakdown of common sense and decency, no longer will most Obama supporters EVER vote for her in ANY election. Fortunately, Obama already is the Dem's guy, and we just have to cross our fingers that the bitter Hillary people put down their bottles and at the very least vote against McCain in November.

[Countdown09]

What Hillary should be asking is why her campaign people got it so wrong she was supposed to be the nominee after Super Tuesday. She and her campaign people should be a little less concerned about Obama's predictions and try and figure out a respectable exit strategy for her

[William1950]

If I never hear the term "She will be ready on day one!" again it will be too soon.

[storeyy]

or vetted

[RobtBrock]

Obama will probably win Indiana since Republicans and Independents are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary. If it was a closed primary she would probably have a shot and a beer while kicking his boney kiester around.

[mice]

Hillary's attacks on Obama are so pathetic.

I believe Hillary predicted, on national TV, that this race would be over by Feb. 5 also. Pathetic.

[JeremyO]

Is Indiana another Wisconsin?

Obama won Wisconsin 58 percent to 41 percent. This was a full primary. It was an open primary to be sure, and 37 percent of the voters in the Democratic primary were either independents or Republicans, according to the exit polls. Obama beat Clinton by 7 percentage points among Democrats, 44 percentage points among independents, and 31 percentage points among Republicans.

Whatever racists are out there in 90-percent white Wisconsin, it ultimately did not matter. In the fall, Clinton led in the polls in Wisconsin by 18 to 22 percentage points. On election day, Obama won the white vote by 9 percentage points.

[meltingpot101]

When Hillary is campaigning she has got Bill and Chelsea also canvassing the state. Together they make up alot of ground. Not to mention the notariety.

I'm not making excuses, Obama is still kicking ass, afterall he is the frontrunner. Michelle Obama is good, but by no means can she compare to former President Bill Clinton. Michelle is probably more comparable to Chelsea though.

That stomping team Hillary has she should have had this thing sewed up soon after she was the presumptive nominee.

Just an observation.

[PAposter]

Despite Senator Obama's advantages...........

You're kidding right? Since when is being an unknown Black, underdog candidate running against the Clinton Machine in one of the most racially divided countries in the the world an advantage? i must have missed the "Advantages of Being Black in America" lecture in black history class. Doggone it!

..........who is on your side....? Well, according to Hillary, it's not the Congress, Economists, Elitists, Superdelegates, Elected Delegates, any Obama supporter, Blacks, well-educated, city residents, young people, and especially not the Frontrunner in the race. No, the only people on your side are the Oil Lobbyists, Special Interests Groups, Dubai Government Officials, China Government Officials, Bill Clinton's "Special Friends", and the "Queen of Mean" herself, Hillary Rodham Clinton. She's always there "when she needs you"? Isn't she special?

[Sabreen60]

WOW!! Ain't it the truth - just had to comment.

[Sctt859]

Marco obama said he gave rev.wright the benefit of the doubt, obama praised wright on more than one occasion. He even praised him in his PA speech i can praise hitler for his great speaking skills but i do not agree with what hitler did at all. many will agree with wright as well disagree with some of the things he said, we really need to move beyond the wright situation now.

[peascott]

Is Rev. Wright running for President?

John McCain's Phoenix pastor, Dan Yeary: All preachers have a tendency to overstate because our passion is so intense. But I thought Obama did a fine job in response. He preserved his friendship with his pastor while disagreeing with him," Yeary said.
"I'm sure John McCain would probably say the same thing about me if he were asked 'So, do you agree with everything your pastor says?'" he added with a laugh.

[bigbingtheory]

All Wright did was speak. Hitler did quite more, you fascist.

[SShaw490]

If Hillary wants to compare which campaign has gone closer to plan, I'm sure the Obama people would be happy to exchange notes.

That woman is the most worthless human waste product ever to curse the American people. And with some of the politicians in our past, that's a pretty big pile of doo doo.

[Probus]

At this point it is not enough for Clinton to just win states she needs to win states by 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 to overtake Obama in the pledged delegates. She can't do this. She couldn't even do this in PA which was her turf. Even supers are fast moving away from her, she can no longer win this nomination. It is about time the MSM said that Obama has locked up this nomination.

[Star2000dancer]

Counterpoint: There are 40 bluedogs in congress. Repubs in Dems clothing. Bill Clinton inherited a huge deficit from HW Bush, just like we will inherit from GW Bush. You had to fix the defecit 1st. Clinton did, and left with a 5 trillion in the black. Bill did that with being attacked constantly from day one, night & day. Her healthcare plan would have worked with a Democratic congress. And it would have worked if Gore was president. NAFTA could've been a good thing, but GW distorted it like he did anything he touched. The Clinton's are seasoned & have proved they can fix the economy & proress in spite of everything that's thrown at them. Barack has only had experience in the black community in a very tough town, Chicago. Obama stutters, blinks, & doesn't look people in the eye in interviews. This shows inexperience, insecurity,& that he's not sure of himself. He does not answer questions, he turns them around back into a hope message. No substance. His own mentor, pastor, & father figure has turned on him because Barack turned on him. The Clinton's are powerful, and make powerful enemies, but even more powerful friends. Our President runs the entire world, the Clinton's have proved they can play on that court. Barack can't even bowl, America's #1 past time,he is not seasoned yet nor has he been scrutenized close enough yet. All candidates have been caught in lies, so have you & I.

[marcirish]

Bill Clinton managed to have Congress turn from Democratic majority to a minority during his term in office. From everything I've seen from the Clinton camp they have no intention of running a 50 state campaign. Obama will accomplish that -- he has had a headstart on that process in a couple of special elections that went from red to blue.

If you want to judge how each candidate would run the white house I give more credence to how they've run their respective campaigns. Obama wins this one hands down.

[meltingpot101]

The Clintons are good at politics. They are good at pandering. They are good at muddslinging, and better at dodging the mudd. They are really good at making money. They are absolute masters at deception.

But they are no longer GOOD FOR THIS COUNTRY.

Many of us want to get back to the ideals that made this country great. The basis of that would mean that capitalism should never superceded humanitarism.

The Clintons wouldn't be good at that.

[PAposter]

Star2000dancer:

Our President runs the entire world.....Do you honestly believe this? We have China paying our bills in Iraq, we have the weakest currency in the world, former world allies are turning their backs on us, genocide is rampant in several countries, people are killing one another over food shortages, our politicians are in bed with corporate lobbyists, our own people are racially divided, we are pitifully dependent on foreign oil and products, we send our young men and women into combat to fulfill a personal vendetta, we allow Al Qaeda to dwell in the hills between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and on, and on, and on it goes. Good God, how old are you?

If I believed the President of the United States of America runs the world, I would never said that out loud. Fortunately that isn't the case. Instead of yearning to be a Super Power Nation, yearn to be a Nation of Super Empowerment. Try being accountable for yourself.

[pdsldl]

The Clinton's will not be president Hillary will. I respected Bill Clinton as president and would have voted for a third term for him if he could have run, but Hillary is not Bill and I do not trust her or have any respect for her. I wouldn't even vote for Bill now, He isn't the same man that left office. He's lost his mojo.

[Probus]

This election is not about Bill it is about Hillary. It is ridiculous for her to run on his record. What are HER achievements? What has she achieved in the Senate? NAFTA was the wrong policy to enact because it hurt our workers. Even Clinton is against NAFTA. Obama has proven to be a better leader and will be a great president.

[Krikkit]

For the importance of pandering in campaigns, please scope out the Onion:

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/poll_bullshit_is_most_important

[Arawak]

Wonderful stuff. Thanks!

[Vantunow]

Bill Kristol predicts that HRC would win Indiana by 10%, same margin as Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Only one problem Bill, this time you guys mistimed your below the belt attack. Jeremiah Fright occurred too early in the week, and Obama has recovered fast.

Zogbee is usually pretty descent at picking up trends. He was right that gap in Pennsylvania was widening. However, he has gone out of his way, when every other poll wanted to bury Obama in Indiana, to point out that he is infact leading. Not only that but the undecideds broke his way. Then CNN comes out with tied poll with very small number of undecideds.

Hillary's Tax Holiday has not caught fire and she doesn' t have anything like 3:00 AM Ad or Elitist-Gate to bank on this time.

There is no way in Hell if she wins Indiana to win it by 10 point margin. If Obama doesn't recover in time, and her thugs can stuff the ballots in one of the counties, still it would not be more than 3-4 point win.

Not enough to overtake overall all vote lead. Pledge Delegate lead, she can't even overcome it even if Michigan and Florida delegates were given to her.

[LeftLeaner]

Pledge delegates are but ONE component.

The super delegates have the RESPONSIBILITY to weight ALL the factors - not just be sheep, and sanction the stataus quo.

If that's what they are being told to do, then they might as well just go home, as they will prove themselves to be redundant and unnecessary.

[bigbingtheory]

And if you'd be naive to think that superseding that pledged delegate count isn't a big factor.
Here's another, Hillary can't win the general election, not without the black vote, not without those pesky activist Democrats, not without support from independents and moderate Republicans.

She will have little if any. So, even suggesting that Hillary leap over Obama with Super Delegates, which seems unlikely anyway, is so tsupid, it's not worth considering. In this case, pledged delegates are THE component.